mary matalin, one, two, three, who do you think? >> romney. i think romney's going to win.may outperform his current expectation. >> but do you think his surge has stopped? >> i'm telling the people on the ground here have said who are unaffiliated. and he's weighted down by -- michele bachmann has the preachers, the new people are sticking with him to some extent. there's too many like candidates for him to exceed 20. >> you think romney in one, santorum, paul. >> romney and paul, then third santorum and perry. >> i think romney, because he can attract independents, but i think that rick perry will live to fight another day, possibly in south carolina. >> i'm the lone ranger. i think santorum's surge holds and romney will be within two points of the 25% he got four years and $20 million ago. the most expensive two points -- >> you think romney in two. >> in second place but right where he was last time, 25%. then ron paul probably 18 to 20. >> in terms of will anyone drop out after tomorrow? >> no. >> no. >> probably not. >> michele bachmann if she doesn't do well. >> you

also here with jake tapper, mary matalin, matthew dowd and donna brazile.eorge, you just heard mike huckabee right there. he said it was a nascar race. >> it was. gingrich l left iowa incandesce with rage about romney. but somehow lost his fire by the time he got here. but rick santorum standing next to him, he finally earned his place up here, had to face the fact not that much he differs with romney on, except the values they differ on. he's for no child left behind, he's a protectionist. he's for industrial policy. he wants special tax treatment for the 11% of the economy that's manufacturing. what he doesn't want to talk about is his involvement in the terry schiavo case, the end of life tragedy that the federal government plunged into and the other issues that may have propelled him in iowa but not beyond iowa. >> mary, did rick santorum miss an opportunity last night? >> i don't think so. that's one part of his record. the other part of his record, that you wrote so well about, in the fun candidate, he's got a lot of attributes. he's blue collar, he's

mary matalin, rich galen, cornell belcher. mary, we heard rick santorum talking about conventional wisdom, new hampshire being so different from iowa. is it, in fact? >> the way he expressed it, no, it's retail politicking. but he -- i think we might be overreading what happened in iowa. you recall on monday we talked about -- i learned on the ground, and we discussed his cresting. and indeed, that is what happened. his last number was 22. he came in at 25%. which was less than the others, not romney's, lost. so he did exceed and definitely handled the expectations game. but we don't know if he was -- if that's a real victory or the others collapsed. and the reason perry, this leads to why perry reassessed, is what you've just done. santorum alone has not been through the political meat grinder. that's just a little bit of it. i understand what he's saying because i'm a catholic. he's not saying it well, but i understand the principles. and the republican field is going to be hard pressed to come at him that way. but he has not

donna brazell and mary matalin, fascinating, down to the wire as it often is.what do you think is behind the santorum surge? in "the des moines register poll", it really is in the last two days his numbers increased dramatically. >> i think the cnn poll is behind the santorum surge. i talked to a lot of campaigns and pollsters outside who saw him trickling up, crowds gathering, but after the cnn poll all of a sudden it spiked up dramatically. part of it i wonder is it psychosomatic. >> is that, mary, part of it, is that he's the last guy that hasn't bennet front-runner and hasn't had the attack ads against him? he's the last guy standing? >> yes, charlie cook, who's by all equations the best of the handicappers says he's the remainder man. people on the campaign say the surge has stopped. so -- and he has -- he had problems coming in and those problems will come out. so, the typical -- nothing's typical this year but the late surge here, the fluidity typically goes to the late surger. but he's really not surging, according to people on the ground anymore. so, i

our cnn political contributors are joining us, donna brazile and mary matalin. ing us from new hampshire. mary, this tough talk on mitt romney, it sounds like it could come from democrats, but it's coming from republicans. how does that make you feel? >> it has come from democrats and mitt romney's right, and it's good practice for him. but for the republicans to be doing is philosophically incoherent, intellectually dishonest. i think it's shameful, other than senator santorum and congressman paul, they've been shameful on it. on the issue of firing people, if we don't have choice and competition, we don't have the kind of insurance that we've come to enjoy in this country. that was 100% right. he's not an evil man looting companies. he saved companies and created jobs. i'm saying this as an unaffiliated person, but in philosophical incoherence and intellectual dishonesty will be a shame for some of these candidates to wear going forward. >> it's pretty amazing when you think about it. donna, it's not amazing that the democrats are going after mitt romney, takin

donna brazile and mary matalin. can romney stop gingrich's going into florida? >> he can. i don't think it's the best approach, it's necessary but insufficient. newt doesn't have to answer personal attacks. what is he going to say? i'm going to debate an october surprise? where romney made a good hit on newt was on the attacking the free enterprise and attacking bain and capitalism and his fannie mae and freddie mac stuff. it's more less about newt and his continued inability to make conservatism independents who are obsessed with fiscal conservatism confident in his message. he did a much better job saturday night and yesterday on television but he's got to do both the right hits on newt and be more convincing in his conservatism. >> donna, later in the day newt gingrich responded to the new and much more assertive mitt romney by saying this -- >> i've been told by a variety of people that governor romney has been saying unkind things. i'd prefer, personally, not to believe it. but on the other hand, if you've been campaigning for six years and you begin to see it slip aw

he's no mary matalin but he's just a party chairman. >> stop it, stop it.e of your beautiful tactics. i'm not taking the bait. he's a far better professional than i do. and james still has his magazines from when he was 14 and that's why you guys are best friends. >> thank you very much. we'll be back. >>> driving through dark alleyways to escape armed gunmen, we go on an extraordinary trip experienced by very few people. how is the u.s. military preparing for a possible, repeat, possible fight with iran? [ male announcer ] what if we told you that cadillac borrowed technology from ferrari to develop its suspension system? or what if we told you that ferrari borrowed technology from cadillac to develop its suspension system? magnetic ride control -- pioneered by cadillac, perfected in the 556-horsepower cts-v. we don't just make luxury cars. we make cadillacs. >>> tomorrow's the deadline for the so-called super pacs to disclose their donors. erin, are we expecting any major surprises? >> we know we're going to be hearing about a lot of money. you may know t

. >> and our candy crowley is standing by with donna brazile and also mary matalin. candy, you've talked to gingrich throughout this campaign. he, certainly, if he does come in fourth, as of right now he's in fourth, would continue. >> reporter: i think gingrich is in for another couple of weeks, at least if you listen to him. let me just first say, between the two of you, we've decided we've got six decades of experience here in iowa. you know what it's like to be sitting in that room with a winner or a possible loser and trying to make that calculation. what goes into this? should we move forward or should we stop here? >> there's no question, it's money. if you come out of the caucuses tonight and one of the first top three places, clearly, you want the candidate to go on. you're already looking ahead. and in my case, and i'm sure like mary, my role was to deploy staff to the next two, three states and, if you can't succeed tonight, you're bringing them to tennessee, you're bringing them to south carolina, but if you do poorly tonight, you're going to bring them b

paul begala and mary matalin are standing by. for you. one more thing....u like, i bought you five new pairs. love you. did you see the hockey game last night? [ male announcer ] progresso. you gotta taste this soup. it's pro-cool technology releases armies of snowmen masseuse who cuddle up with your soreness and give out polar bear hugs. technology. [ male announcer ] new bengay cold therapy. the same technology used by physical therapists. go to bengay.com for a $3 coupon. >>> let's getting right to our strategy session. paul begala is in washington, and from new orleans, the republican strategist mary matalin. mary, let me start with you. is mitt romney potential in danger by all negative publicity he's getting and potentially could be defined by. >> yes, in danger if he doesn't handle it. he cannot not respond. he has 20 do a little discourse on equity investments, and point out the affect they create jobs, and he there is a way to handle it, and no pun intended, he could learnedage it to a positive if he opened the debate and talked about the free mark

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and shareded an office with james carville and mary matalin and some fun, nutty people.hought it would be interesting how you elect people. >> is there an office you go to? >> yes, i have an office. >> you have mundane get me coffee office hours. >> i get my own coffee. not all of us are brian williams. look, i grew up doing some really crappy jobs over the years. i sold ladies shoes. that's a tough job. i know it doesn't sound tough, but women are crazy with their feet. i sold insurance door to door. >> it's a whole different interview right there. you have a strong internal gyro. you know where you did good work or bad work. how much validation do you receive from awards, because you're likely to have a robust award season. >> who knows. what you do know is here's the thing. it isn't what i do for a living. i don't try to collect awards for a living. >> i heard you do. >> i collect other things for a living, and we'll talk about that later. i don't necessarily remember who's won what award when. i do remember films, you know. i remember 1976, which is a perfect year to

the republican strategist, mary matalin and donna brazil. first to you quarterback donna.hief of staff caught me by surprise. what do you make of this? >> reporter: i think bill decided after christmas and spending time with his family in chicago and came back to the white house and he informed the president that this was a good opportunity for him to pass the baton on to somebody lijack lew. he knows the white house and he knows the budget. so it's a great time if you're going to depart and this was a personal decision and this is a good time because jack will have the entire year to make sure that the president priorities are taken care of. >> mary, whenever they say they want to spend more time with their family you know there's something else going on. that sound good but there's really a lot more. >> it doesn't necessarily mean he was pushed out. with disclosure, i love bill daley. he helped my brother in chicago through a health crisis literally, he saved his life. but the change ng of this chief of staff is pretty common, as we've often said, 18 months was the limit

republican strategist mary matalin. you saw the numbers, romney, 29. gingrich, 25, paul, 20.ace has tightened a bit toward the end. are these numbers to strike fear in the heart of team romney? >> i think not. i'll defer to the panelists who know the party better than i do. if i were advising romney, i'd say you know, so far, good. if he hangs on, he doesn't have to win in south carolina. the only person who ever ran the table in the primaries was al gore when he ran against bill bradley in the 2000 primaries. so i think he's actually in this poll in pretty strong shape. i would worry a lot more about the lasting damage of the attacks on his record as a vulture capitalist because a lot of republicans seem to agree with those attacks. >> is it a lot of republicans are worried about it? it seems like it was perry using that term and his backers backing away from him. >> that's right, and both newt and perry have walked back. they haven't even talked about it in the last few days. it is imperative for mitt to not let paul begala and his cronies define free market entrepreneurshi

interesting, mary matalin was saying last night, the santorum surge has stalled out in iowa. it was big for a few days. a lot of people coming are undecided. they're not necessarily there for santorum. it looks like it could be a three-way tie which opens up the lead a little bit to people like perry and to gingrich and to bachmann if they don't drop out. they can still in until florida. remember, only ten delegates in the next two weeks picked between iowa and new hampshire. you have another 75 picked in south carolina and florida. >> let's talk a little about rick santorum. a lot of people are saying the surge can't last, he has very little money. he has no national infrastructure and no clear path to his nomination, that he can't even afford a rental car. how can he continue this momentum? >> right. i think all of that will change if he finishes first or second coming out of iowa. the checks will come in, people will be en tlus as tick. >> i'm not sure he's the best candidate. i know he's caught fire this close to the election. it's momentum that carries people through, en

paul begala, mary matalin, they were worked in democratic white houses.ng to go through what happens. also the presidential campaign, newt gingrich sort of backed down last night in the debate. what happened? we have a lot of that. >> we'll see el later and tonight, of course. >>> dana bash will go behind of scenes of the state of the union address, give us a sneak peek inside the house chamber floor. we'll be right back. you know organization is key... and so is having a trusted assistant. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...and go. you can even take a full-size or above and still pay the mid-size price. here we are... [ male announcer ] and there you go, business pro. there you go. go national. go like a pro. a living, breathing intelligence that is helping business rethink how to do business. in here, inventory can be taught to learn. ♪ in here, machines have a voice... ♪ [ male announcer ] in here, medical history follows you... even when you're away from home. it's the at&t network -- a network o

republican strategist mary matalin. you saw the numbers, romney, 29. gingrich, 25, paul, 20.ned a bit toward the end. are these numbers to strike fear in the heart of team romney? >> i think not. i'll defer to the panelists who know the party better than i do. if i were advising romney, i'd say you know, so far, good. if he hangs on, he doesn't have to win in south carolina. the only person who ever ran the table in the primaries was al gore when he ran against bill bradley in the 2000 primaries. so i think he's actually in this poll in pretty strong shape. i would worry a lot more about the lasting damage of the attacks on his record as a vulture capitalist because a lot of republicans seem to agree with those attacks. >> is it a lot of republicans are worried about it? it seems like it was perry using that term and his backers backing away from him. >> that's right, and both newt and perry have walked back. they haven't even talked about it in the last few days. it is imperative for mitt to not let paul begala and his cronies define free market entrepreneurship. private equ

. >> mary matalin, donna brazile, we'll be back with you later tonight. >> you can see the believe inca romney banner right behind him. he'll be presumably giving a speech. we see the teleprompter going up there already, candy, thank you very much. >>> we've been asking iowa voters what's important to them as they consider their choice for the republican nominee for president. when you have tough pain, do you want fast relief? try bayer advanced aspirin. it has microparticles so it enters the bloodstream fast and rushes relief to the site of your tough pain. it's proven to relieve pain twice as fast as before. bayer advanced aspirin. gives you a 50 percent annual bonus. so you earn 50 percent more cash. if you're not satisfied with 50% more cash, send it back! i'll be right here, waiting for it. who wouldn't want more cash? [ insects chirping ] i'll take it. i'll make it rain up in here. [ male announcer ] the new capital one cash rewards card. the card for people who want 50% more cash. what's in your wallet? sorry i'll clean this up. shouldn't have made it rain. >>> we are nearing 8

. >> donna brazile, mary matalin, thank you so much. >> they are still counting votes, tabulating votes, from two counties. that is the hold-up at this point. two counties still tabulating votes. two precincts i should say. as soon as we get that information, obviously we will give it to you. a winner will be declared. our coverage continues after a short moment. this new at&t 4g lte is fast. did you hear sam... ...got promoted to director? so 12 seconds ago. we should get him a present. thanks for the gift basket. you're welcome. you're welcome. did you see hr just sent out new... ...office rules? cause you're currently in violation of 6 of them. oh yeah, baby? ...and 7. did you guys hear that fred is leaving? so 30 seconds ago. [ noisemakers blow ] [ both ] we'll miss you! oh, facecake! there's some leftover cake. [ male announcer ] the new htc vivid. stay a step ahead with at&t 4g lte, with speeds up to 10x faster than 3g. ♪ [ male announcer ] why do we grow quaker oats? because there are mountains to climb. ♪ dreams to be realized. ♪ new worlds to be explored and hearts to be won. q

mary matalin, let's start with you. off the top of my head, i'm thinking, oh, ron paul. but there's other factors here. >> such thing or there's only 7% independents. really independents. you've got to push the lead, so here, you've got different kind of i independents. they lean libertarian or lean to fiscal conservative and social liberal, that kind of different kind of every state is unique. what i think is interesting about this state, mitt romney is the first republican to win both these states. the only candidates who had previously won both had been campaigns that donna brazile ran twice and he's not going to get if these numbers hold, he'll be doing fine, but this is not dispositive, nor was iowa. i know we're all talking about south carolina, might be a little premature. i'm just saying for the first republican who's ever won both these states, it's not adding up to enough to -- push the coronation. you're a seven percenter. >> it's a 40 percenter. gallup, 40% of americans independent. we're seeing independents now if the exit polls are correct, almost 50% of th

joining us des moines, a pair of cnn political contributors, republican strategist, mary matalin and a brazile. mary, first to you. getting the kids out there. humanizing these candidates. that's always effective, isn't it? >> it's hugely effective. meeting people here in des moines there are friends of the bush kids from the 1980 campaign, so there are a force. they cover more territory, but there is nothing that can express what the essence, the soul of a candidate more than their families. starting with their wife. the kids, fair or unfair, you're judged by your product even though any product would tell you, your kids don't listen to you. they turn out good, you can get the credit. >> a wife or a spouse, donna, can really be effective. ann romney, for example. she's been very visible over the last several days, but looking ahead, michelle obama, she's going to be pretty active on the campaign trial and pretty effective as well. >> there's no question that a candidate's spouse, their kids, even their mother. back in the 1988 cycle. dick gep hard's mom would campaign on his behalf.

paul begala and the republican strategist mary matalin.ut that explanation. >> this is erin's background, she knows this stuff better than i ever will. i know she's right about it. what's interesting political is we saul earlier a live shot of mitt romney speaking, and he has this phrase, i love america. of course, he does. roars, so does my mother, we're not going to make her president, but his political opponents can say if you love america so much, why were you investing in the cayman islands, in swiss bank accounts, in luxembourg, in ire listen middle-class folks don't have swiss accounts, so if you love america so much, why weren't you investing. >> what about he had a blind trust and investors were doing that. >> about you you can give parameters and say only invest in america. he has to explain that. and by the way, what about before he had this blind trust? wee won't he release earlier tax returns? were there some years he paid less or any years when he paid zero? this thing is not just going to go away. >> mary, what do you think?

interesting, mary matalin was saying last night, the santorum surge has stalled out in iowa. it was big for a few days. a lot of people coming are undecided. they're not necessarily there for santorum. it looks like it could be a three-way tie which opens up the lead a little bit to people like perry and to gingrich and to bachmann if they don't drop out. they can still in until florida. remember, only ten delegates in the next two weeks picked between iowa and new hampshire. you have another 75 picked in south carolina and florida. >> let's talk a little about rick santorum. a lot of people are saying the surge can't last, he has very little money. he has no national infrastructure and no clear path to his nomination, that he can't even afford a rental car. how can he continue this momentum? >> right. i think all of that will change if he finishes first or second coming out of iowa. the checks will come in, people will be en tlus as tick. >> i'm not sure he's the best candidate. i know he's caught fire this close to the election. it's momentum that carries people through, en

got to turn now to mary matalin, republican strategist.n. >> as the resident member in good standing of the vast right wing conspiracy here, i have to say, it was a great night for mitt. he did everything he had to do. but it was a great night for santorum and it was a good night for newt. newt's the politics, when he's good, he's very, very good, and when he's bad, he's very, very bad. he was good tonight. the notion just because they haven't coellised doesn't make the desire for a conservative alternative to romney dissipate. we have a trajectory coming in. we have a trajectory going out. that would be south carolina. which has had less activity. they're waiting to see what will happen in iowa. they'll wait to see what will happen here. i think this puts it in a holding pattern for the moment in south carolina and i think mitt's not going to win here but if he doesn't win big this is a state that could be discounted because he does live here practically. >> did santorum do enough tonight to maybe climb into second place? >> i think he di