let's break that down with the chief investment officer for fixed income at voyeur him -- at voya, matt toms. a 10 year yield around 1.45%. what changed for you today? matt: the fed had a measured tone on the back of inflate date --inflate gates, where transitory was retired, so not a drastic change to the approach. that is what the market is responding to, a fed that looks like a plane in turbulence with a pilot not sweating profusely, inflation believed to be hi gher but not out of control. >> pal raised eyebrows about the gap between the taper and when the rate hikes begin. were you surprised? matt: it is logical we think to get the taper out of the way. that is important. we don't believe they are linked , but getting the taper out of the way, there's already over $1 trillion of excess savings in the fed. we don't need for asset purchases. we believe march is in play next year but would stop short of timing the beginning of taper ending and hikes beginning. >> we saw yields take a round trip. the flattest curve of the year on the two and 10. do you think we have seen the bulk already of

matt: how much do you expect conditions to tighten up? tom: probably between 100 to 125 basis points of effective tightening. every basis point increase in the fed funds rate, you get two to three points of effective tightening kailey: -- effective tightening. but there is a liquidity drought that starts happening in april. same thing in the mortgage market. by the end of the year there should be quite a substantial liquidity drought that should be affecting all financial markets by the end of 2022. kailey: at the end of the day, is it going to be when qt starts that is going to be the matter? matt: when qt starts -- tom: when qt starts, but when the fed says we are talking about it. you could see discussion from the fed meeting minutes say that quantitative tightening, the balance sheet reduction is likely to happen sooner than folks expect, but in the end, you've got to reduce the size of the balance sheet in the treasury market, the mortgage market, and even it is going to be more of a signaling factor. jonathan: could that be a surprise n

matt miller, kriti gupta, and dani burger in for jon, tom, and lisa. t is someone's birthday. matt: happy birthday, jon. dani: i just want markets to be calm because i would rather picking up a bottle of bubbly i will be drinking later, but there are some interesting moves shaping up today. volumes are very light. i would point out that in this u.s. futures session, we are seeing some underperformance from russell 2000 futures. when we see this, it is down 0.3%. some concern about the smaller cap, the more cyclical type stocks. of course, as the year ends, sometimes that is some windowdressing moves, but what does this mean as we head into 2022 about whether the big cap tech stocks and continue to succeed? s&p 500 and nasdaq futures up 0.1%. some more sanguine moves in the bond market space. we are seeing a little bit of buying. 10-year gilts, 30 you yields -- 30 year yields lower by one basis point. unfortunately, not ending the year on that nice round number, but still both the 10 year and 30 year yields hovering around their 50 day moving average. we

tom: matt is talking about his desire to get a hold of new apple products, and now we hear that thoseave been shortened to two weeks. alex webb saying this may be a case of customers waiting until next year when the new model comes out. dani: you have to make sure -- you can see we are looking at the screen, technology leading to the downside, dropping more than 2%. otherwise, they will not be able to find any sector outperforming. everything in the red today. it is the fed, the virus. tom: to reiterate, this is a buy the dip opportunity. their analysis is this variant will be less dangerous than some assumed. two hikes by 2022 which is essentially priced into the markets. that is it for the european market open. "surveillance: early edi tion" is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the u.s. needs to get back on a sustainable fiscal path. >> purchases in the first quarter or early in the second, right now i would support that. >> we know vaccines are likely to have some protection. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance: early edition." dani: good morning and welcome to "bloomberg sur

tom: 70 million americans bowl every year, all generations, all ages. everyone bowls. matto you hope to do with the proceeds from going public? what will you do with your business with this money? tom: currently we have three hundred 20 locations in north america but the u.s. market is highly fragmented. about 3500 independently operated bowling centers in the u.s. alone. even though we are eight times the number two player in the world, we only have 7% market share in the u.s., a fraction of the family entertainment location based entertainment businesses in the united states. we have a long runway for growth on the acquisition side and building new centers. we have built probably 10 in the last two years, acquired about 30. we plan to accelerate both of those initiatives since we have gone public. matt: what has the covid affect been like? i wonder especially lately as the omicron variant starts to rear its ugly head in the u.s. how are you experiencing that? tom: we had a total shutdown and then a gradual emergence. as restrictions lifted, we found bowling came back stro

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. matt: from berlin, london, and new york and our audience worldwide, this is -- good morning, just one time, because the birthday boy is off today. tom keene is off, lisa is off, and jon ferro has a birthday. happy birthday buddy. it is also new year's eve, the second most important thing to discuss today. do you both have plans, are you going out, what does new year's eve look like in new york? kriti: i am staying in but i hear that times square will be popping, they will be confetti and the ball drop, i will just not be a part of any of it. dani: i cannot think of anything i would rather do less then going to times square on new year's. i will be noted -- nowhere year -- nowhere near anywhere as that. i will have a nice dinner party, it will be chilled out. matt: a little pretested -- pretexted murder mystery? are we seeing celebrations already? auckland fireworks, i hear. so, it looks like at least they are setting off fireworks. it sounds like there are people out there, i see cars driv

matt: tom keene, who basically is the creator of the bloomberg surveillance brand -- i remember whenfirst simulcast. we were rebuilding the television studio and the tv people said, what do we do and they said let's simulcast the radio program. it was a massive hit. they still do six hours a day of surveillance. peter: and they do bloomberg businessweek in the afternoon. matt: also a fantastic vehicle, property there. let's take a look at markets. we are in rally mode once again. for those of you on radio, i am reminded that you can't look. in terms of the s&p 500, up .2%. not a huge gain, but that seven points pushes us to 47, 98 seven. we could be looking at that today. peter: let's take a look at we had a good print recently on holiday sales, up 8.5%. people were out there buying stuff. the question is, how do you reach younger folks out there and get them into the purchase mode? we have so many who knows how to do that, quynh mai, moving image and content founder joins us. these are the nine to 24 years of age. how are they buying stuff? are they going to stores or clicking on am

kailey: i hope tom is watching or listening. matt miller is talking, we have the chart.ity they started shutting down stores. how indicative is that of a macro story? kriti: it brings back the summer of 2020 while we were dealing with the lockdowns. big hit to demand and that only disposable income but the driving season was under wraps. one of the big indicators of the market where you saw the s&p 500 trade off headlines was when apple closed stores and decided to -- i should say shut down the services like the genius bar in new york but also across the country. you saw a lot of the recovery trade first emerge and apple stayed reopening stores not only in new york but in l.a., chicago, dallas. that became a proxy for the reopening. the reason is because apple is a proxy for luxury demand, for that disposable income that they are willing to spend on luxury products. everyone has an iphone these days but they are a luxury product. add that onto the foot traffic to get in for their services and you kind of have this macro proxy built into the stocks. matt: it's true. i nee

matt miller, jonathan ferro. we advance one third of 1%. tom and lisa abramowicz will be back with us at some point.aybe they will wait until the new year. euro-dollar about 0.1% down. a brilliant just now to talk about the fortis ugo -- about the pharmaceutical companies, geoff meacham. i want to talk about mrna technology. it felt like a huge step forward 12 months ago. i wonder how things stack up 12 months later. geoff: that is a great question. mrna technology has shown durability of affect. the pfizer and moderna vaccines look like they do their job, limit hospitalizations, prevent severe infections, prevent death and a lot of patients, but the question is still unknown whether they will be as infectious as flu or cardiovascular diseases. kailey: when we talk about those vaccines that exist for covid-19, talking about a third booster in israel, how much are they revenue generators for companies like ours and moderna? geoff: for the most part, -- it is perfectly normal to have antibody levels go down over time once someone is vaccinated or exposed. i feel like a third booster or third shot is p

tom said he is trying to make the perfect macaroni. is that an indication that t.k. is getting better? matt: he is probably feeling fine. i can imagine him sitting down on a fender amp, playing with this computer and all of his recording equipment. he probably wants to get back to the markets as quickly as possible. jonathan: t.k., get better soon. your call for the u.s. dollar, walk us through it. marvin: the fed pivot, the fact u.s. rates are above global rates will probably create a bid for the dollar. as we get to the point when the fed hikes and we get a better idea in terms of the inflation discussion, which will be with us going into the beauty of next year. until we get a real sense of what the inflation curve looks like in the second half of the year and whether or not the fed is as far behind the curve as other people say. it will defined whether or not it will continue. as we go into the beginning of next year, the dollar will continue to have a solid bid. kailey: what about the bond market? marvin: i still think we can get a flattening of the curve -- it will be somewhat surprising. in number to be concerned

matt: how much further can animal spirits take us to call back to tom keene here?an forecast earnings growth and forecast dividend payouts, but you cannot forecast how much the market is willing to pay, right? last year we were able to pay 30 times earnings at the end of the year. this year, at 4000, we are only able to pay 26-times earnings. is that willing to come down? barbara: last year, we were taking that in sales, not earnings. i think going forward, mass matters and people would be far more focused on cash flow and asset value because masks -- mass works. if the market is not pricing something accordingly, private equity will. that is where i feel safe, where you have the margin of safety, which is always mass and not send -- not sentiment. matt: bleeding into that, we have the incredible sloshing of liquidity. especially when you bring up pe, i think of the 2 -- $2 trillion something number that people throw around every year. we see massive bids, even at under $50,000 for coin is worth under $50,000. you see bids for companies that are never going to make

matt: absolutely. what the fed is focused on and what tom focuses on a lot on this program is the labor force participationhat still is not come back to pre-pandemic levels and that is what the fed is trying to focus its policy on, especially certain groups that have had real trouble bouncing back. you will see the new nominees focused on those issues. jonathan: hopefully we get those fed picks pretty soon, hopefully at the start of next year, maybe next week. data on u.s. retail foot traffic. here are some interesting numbers. u.s. retail foot traffic rose 36.9% last week from a year earlier. you're on your stuff, but improvement. up 6.9% year-over-year. kailey: people may be getting in last-minute holiday shopping but that is a consumer out and spending even in the face of the omicron variant. we have seen the propensity to spend has not yet been hit by that. jonathan: let's get to the analysis. the senior u.s. economic at bloomberg comments -- at bloomberg economists joins us now. your thoughts? >> perfect number. that shows you that companies are really eager to keep their existing labor force in

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. [fireworks] ♪ mattfrom sydney, berlin, london, and new york, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." you can see australia celebrating the new year there. the markets were indeed open in sydney today, and they are celebrating a 13% gain, the double digits there, nothing like the game we have seen on the s&p 500. kriti group do with us out of new york, dani burger in london. tom keene, jon ferro, and lisa abramowicz are off today. but 27% is the year to date again we have seen on the s&p 500, and this follows a 17% gain last year, and i think i 29% gain in 2019, so we have seen some incredible gains. the s&p 500 up 134% when you include reinvested dividends over the past four years. kriti: it is really clear that a good chunk is thanks to tech and that defensive trade. how much of that really continues when you start to see decelerating growth? do you continue to see the tech trade, and that mean that we perhaps progressed past that early part of the market cycle? that is really the

. >> jimmy: i want to thank tom holland, zendaya, benedict cumberbatch and jacob batalon. apologies to matt "nightline" is next, but first, this is their grammy-nominated album "capitol cuts: live from studio a." here with the song "know you better," black pumas! ♪ let's float on out on this mother ship baby let's take control of it ♪ ♪ get it together flight of the bumblebee for my honey baby make you wanna sing ♪ ♪ get up get up and lock hands and sway with me ♪ ♪ through the fire i feel it around the room ♪ ♪ get it together i can't be comfortable listening to what other people have to say ♪ ♪ cause i want to know you better i gotta take this time to stop and see the weather ♪ ♪ i love to watch you shine i want to know you better oh baby ♪ ♪ forward let us be unified baby out in this galaxy ♪ ♪ moving free in the way we move helps me realize what to do ♪ ♪ get it together light up my fire babe hold hands cause everything's everything ♪ ♪ i had to let you know ♪ ♪ get it together free in the way we cruise as we realize how to really fly let's fly ♪ ♪ cause i want to know you better i gott

matt: i want to get the politics and rip up the script tom keene style.ook at your resume and i think about build back better and chances it will not pass as i think about my personal concerns the salt deduction cap will not be lifted. i look at your resume, you are the commissioner of the delaware river port authority and served on the treasury transition teams. you are a board member of the new jersey economic develop an authority. i've been asking myself why do these states, especially new jersey and new york, have such high taxes compared to other states? it seems to only matter the salt cap to the tri-state area. if we do not get that, what else can be done to lower these tax burdens that are incredibly heavy on a lot of working families in those states? david: it takes a shop and it has not happened yet. i agree with you. our company used to be headquartered in new jersey. we are now in florida. we have to change. tax is not the only reason to make the change. we are on airplanes flying to florida because of the migrations of wealth. during the pand

jonathan: or is matt miller said, you just don't like it. maybe they just don't like the phone. tomi am still paying for afterthought's lost airpods, the things that go in your ears. jonathan: apparently the kids are going back to the wired headphones. tom: we are doing that. vet bill has a set now. you've got to have the little dingy-dongy thing. jonathan: technology updates, that's what people tuned in for. [laughter] subadra rajappa of socgen joins us. the curve is flatter. what is your message for clients at the moment? subadra: the messaging is very pessimistic. the market generally speaking seems to be holding up fine. equities are doing ok. but the yield curve flattening as much as it has is somewhat troubling. as you pointed to earlier on in the segment, where do we go from here? this is where we are starting from, and the fed is about to deliver may be four or five hikes in the next year. what happens to the curve? will the fed actually allow the curve to flatten too much and policy ultimately lead to a recession? that is why i'm struggling with how flat the curve is. to me

matt! captain sir tom moore almost needs no introduction on this programme.m making his way up and down his garden, ijust stood there and watched. dave esther rantzen is a long—time campaigner against loneliness, and is adding her support. we want to change attitudes towards people. we want older people to be valued, to be regarded as an asset, to be used for all their resources, their life experience, their skill, their sense of adventure, their determination to make the world a better place. so that's what we want, not a lot. there will be an annual captain tom day, and an innovation award. among the goals, helping older people to connect with others using technology. there will be money for projects that tackle isolation, and the creation of schemes to form bonds between different generations. one of his great strengths, a skill, talent, a gift, was to be able to reach people from the very young to the not so young. his actions and his words of wisdom always aimed to make a difference, to improve people's lives. his legacy will be that those words, that vi

tom betgeorge created. the extravaganza really we might as well call it flashing in time to toby matt's rendition of "littleim an entire year to plan out the show. it was also a fund-raiser for a local family shelter. you'll have that song in your head the rest of the day. that "little drummer boy." >> he must live in silicon valley, right? to figure out all of that. >> awesome. awesome. >> all right. "gma" is now two hours on saturdays. >>> coming up, the new fears for the holidays as the omicron variant rapidly spreads across the country. >>> and our "gma" cover story, how broadway is taking a hit with canceled performances due to positive covid cases after recent re-openings. what's next? >>> and help for all of us who have trouble getting to sleep with diane macedo coming up. up. >> announcer: monday, it's >> happening today, thousands ts san mateo families receiving extra joy for the holidays. samaritan house gift card and toy distribution center. 1700 children will receive brand new toys and 600 household will receive a $100 music gift card. they have already given 3000 cards out. today's event is for

tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio pete alongside kailey leinz and mattm jonathan ferro. equity

tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: is it the beginning of the end for easy money? for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside mattiller and kailey leinz, i'm jonathan ferro. your s&p advancing 0.2%. it has been all-time high after all-time high. kailey: the most since 1995. we could see another today, possibly even tomorrow. it has been quite were markable. this equity market up the better part of 30%, far above where we thought we would be coming into this year. jonathan: is the beginning of the end of easy money, or is it just the story of easy money getting less easy, but still remaining easy? matt: we don't know the answer to that. we look forward to seeing the fed in march, what is likely to be a live meeting, but most don't expect a rate increase in march. the question is sequencing. how will we see the balance sheet unwound if they feel like doing that at all? these are all things that affect financial conditions, and we will be following on the terminal very closely. jonathan: you sound extremely excited about the new year, just like me. [laughter] matt: you know what? i was so pumped when i came in on mo

tom brady but still with bill belichick on his side. certainly in the nfl right now there is at least some scenario of a patriot/buccaneers, a brady verses matt jones. brady, you and i have to have a head to head at some point. >> get the paper bag. you are having a good first season but i will tell you who's not having a good season, willie. urban myers. >> oh, nice swing. >> fired yesterday. >> urban meyer. there has never been a worst 13 games stretch for a coach. he got fired yesterday by the jaguars. he had a lot of success in college and ohio state in particular. >> when alabama beat him, remember he had a heart attack? >> i don't know that, i don't want to question his health. >> kicking players and screaming at coaches. >> it was that he was 2-11, having a terrible season. he was alleged to be abusive to many of the players and you had the former kicker came out that said urban meyer kicked me in the leg. nfl players are not going to standby and take that as he tries to be the rawr rawr coach. >> katty, what are we going to do? >> i had a horrible feel that you are going to ask me about it. >> what are we going to do with britain? you