. >> charlie: matthew dowd on politics and clarissa rd on syria when we continue. captioning sponsored by rose communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. >> charlie: we began with politics. newt gingrich's surge in the poll has changed the complexion of the republican primary contest within month before the caucus, gingrich rides a wave of momentum some believe can carry him to the nomination. skeptics doubt he has adequate funding and organization to sustain a protractive battle with mitt mitt romney, there are questions about his viability as an opponent against obama. matthew dowd a strategist for george b. bush currently an analt for bloomberg news. i'm pleased to have him back at this table. welcome. >> great to be here, charlie. >>> explain this to me because you are one of those who said before cane cain watch out. >> this has been a series of primaries so four without votes being held so far is t anti-romney coalition that's moved around. first it was michele bachmann, then it was rick perry, bill flounder and herman cain and he

even if he won the letter of the bet, by making the bet, as matthew dowd pointed out, he probably losthat is the romney camp saying about that? >> well, have already sent out e-mails to many of our contacts. it's interesting we're talking about the $10,000 bet. a columnist with the register has penned a column saying not too many caucusgoers in iowa would ever place a $10,000 bet, even if it was a sure thing. we asked americans a couple of days from now, they likely won't even remember which issue this was about but they will remember the $10,000 figure. >> let me bring in matthew dowd. political analyst. he's seen both sides of the aisle. >> to me, these debates are always big monments. this was the last big moment that we have going into christmas and then going into the caucuses on january 3rd. when you look at these big moments, you always look at the movement coming in of the candidates. what i think happened tonight is mitt romney had to stop some bleeding. i don't think he did that. so the movement for mitt romney is going to continue i think not going in the direction he wants.

matthew dowd, let me bring you in. newt, giving as good as he got, going straight at romney's record at bain capital. he was using the same argument that ted kennedy used to beat mitt romney in 1994. the same argument that barack obama would like to use. and newt is showing he will be ruthless to get the nomination. >> this shows actually that this is a nomination that everybody in the republican party knows is worth having. they know the president is vulnerable. they know the president can be beat. now, that you have two titans going at it, knowing whoever gets the republican nomination has a good shot at going to the white house. so, i think that's what it is. i think newt needs to stop. i think newt needs to stop this and get above this and go back to how he performed in this debate over the course of the summer and the fall because that's when he rose. the more he gets dragged down into this, i think the worse for him. >> that may be why he put out that truce last night. and you did work for president george w. bus

my former colleague, matthew dowd, had the most succinct explanation of what matters going into iowa,nd it's no momentum. newt gingrich has momentum but iowa is 30 days out. it's an eternity in politics. if this was a football game, we're six minutes into the third quarter. we'll be at the two-minute warning on christmas day. it will be flat-out and a close race all the way through iowa, through new hampshire. >> msnbc political analyst steve schmidt, thank you very much for joining me tonight. >> you bet, thank you, lawrence. >>> coming up, it isn't just the newt surge in iowa. ron paul is holding his own. we'll show you why he's appealing to iowa caucus goers. >>> but first, mitt romney doesn't like being asked questions. he doesn't really like a lot of questions. so we'll ask him the questions he does like. that's in tonight's "rewrite." ♪ my hair is gone ♪ cheap cologne ♪ motor home ♪ i'm the rocket man! [ both ] ♪ rocket man ♪ burning out his fuse up here alone ♪ burning out his fuse up here alone? ahh. [ male announcer ] crystal clear fender premium audio. one of many premium fe

. >>> let's get more from matthew dowd, veteran of many iowa caucuses.poll shows such strength for newt gingrich right now. even -- what were perceived as his negatives. his position on immigration in the caucus, doesn't appear to be cutting here. only 15% see it as negative. three marriages, only 16%. and the voters in iowa right now think he's their guy. >> newt's in a better position than anybody else in the sort of anti-mitt primary. he has all the attributes that the other people, like michele bachmann, rick perry and herman cain, had pieces of. he has them all. he has electability. he has stands by your belief. he has handling the economy. he has the whole package. the question, there's four weeks left to the caucus, if he loses that momentum all the way through the christmas holiday. this is troubling news for mitt romney. he had an err of inevitability. it's been popped. this poll has showed that's gone. we could be headed for a long process in this. but this ought to make the folks at the romney headquarters a good bit nervous. >> what do they d

. >>> we want to bring in our top strategists, james carville and matthew dowd. hew, i want to start with you. you said don't count newt out. that was before his campaign made the analogy to pearl harbor and before missing the ballot in virginia. >> i think newt has a great capacity to be forgiven at this time. he has a thick teflon around him. keep in mind, newt gingrich is tied nationally in the pols. he's been in four straight polls tied nationally. i think the race right now, unless somebody changes the dynamic in iowa, is is a race between ron paul, mitt romney, and newt gingrich, all of whom have tremendous baggage. >> james, what do you think? how does this hurt newt? >> it's -- the hearing from the megamouth on megamonday, i guess. how does it hurt? he's not on the ballot in virginia. in a close race that could mean something. secondly, it's probably indicative of something else, that they were not prepared for this, unable to do it. it's a story that steps on stuff. i think matthew is right. he's shown resilience. this is a lot of baggage. >> as matthew s

our abc news contributor, james carville and matthew dowd. matthew, i want to start with you. you said don't count newt out. that was before he failed to get on the ballot in virginia. that was before his campaign made the analogy to pearl harbor where people were killed. what do you think, matthew? >> i think newt has a great capacity to be forgiven at this time. he has a thick teflon around him. keep in mind, newt gingrich is tied nationally in the polls. he's been in four-straight polls tied nationally. i think the race right now, unless somebody changes the dynamic in iowa, is a race between ron paul, mitt romney, and newt gingrich, all of whom have tremendous baggage. and all of whom a majority of republicans have worries about. but it's going to be one of the three of those. >> james, what do you think? how does this hurt newt? >> it's -- hearing from the megamouth on megamonday, i guess you can say. how does it hurt? he's not on the ballot in virginia. in a close race, that could mean something. secondly, it's probably indicative of something else, that they were not pr

. >>> let's bring in matthew dowd to get more on this.oters looking for a new crutch in the primaries and caucuses. but was sarah palin right when she says it's not too late for someone else to get in? >> if it becomes a broker convention, she's right. if nobody sews this thing up in so many months -- different wins in iowa, south carolina, a person could -- a player could come in late and be a major force at the convention. >> could not get on the ballot. it would have to be a late call. >> you can have favor sons or daughters in a brokered convention as they determine who the nominee is. >> you look beneath the numbers. and it seems that romney has opened up a big lead on newt over who is more electable. who is more able to beat president obama. as we get closer to iowa, are the voters getting more practical? that's what they're more concerned with? >> yeah. this reminds me of the kids at christmas. they walk down and see a red wagon. and they're like, well, that's boring. i'm going to open up the fancy gift over there. they open up ano

. >> let's get more from matthew dowd and james carville. this was a shift for the romney campaign. he wasn't willing to go personal on newt gingrich, as late as saturday night. >> we're going to see more of this. when obama said to senator clinton, i like you good enough, hillary. we had a collective fit in the democrat party. now we're seeing what real negativity looks like. it's going to get more and more like the paul commercial you showed. >> it's the second one for ron paul. ma matthew, let's bring you in. newt gave as good as he got. going straight at romney's record at bain capital. he was using the same argument that ted kennedy used to beat mitt romney in 1994. the same argument that barack obama would like to use. in the general election. this is something they had staid away from so far. and newt is showing he will be ruthless to get the nomination. >> this shows actually that this is a nomination that everybody in the republican party knows is worth having. they know the president is vulnerable. they know the president can be beat. now, that you have two titans going at

. >>> let's bring in matthew dowd to get more on this.ing for a new crutch in the primaries and caucuses. but was sarah palin right when she said it was not too late for someone to come in? >> if it becomes a broker convention, she's right. if someone different wins in iowa, south carolina, a person, a player could come in late and be a major force at the convention. i don't know if it's her. or she just wants -- >> could not get on the ballot. it would have to be a late call. >> you can have favor sons or daughters in a brokered convention as they determine who the nominee is. >> you look beneath the numbers. and it seems that romney has opened up a big lead on who is more electable. who is more able to beat president obama. as we get closer to iowa, are the voters getting more practical? >> yeah. this reminds me of the kids at christmas. they walk down and see a red wagon. well, that's boring. i'm going to open up the fancy gift. they open up another one and it breaks. and they keep looking at the red wagon. mitt romney's like the red w