. >> we're going to bring in matthew dowd and leslie sanchez. my question is, who wins a tie tonight? is it mitt romney, the candidate with the national organization, the money, the resources to go forward, looking forward to new hampshire, or is it rick santorum, the guy who came out of nowhere and has tied the front-runner? >> well, this race has been about one thing the whole time. it's been about romney maintaining his stable lead. he got the same percentage, it looks like, that he did four years ago when he finished second. and who was going to be his competitor? five different candidates have had a shot at it. we've had six different fro front-runn front-runners. we now have a new candidate who is going to take a shot. i think the winner tonight, if you can say there's a winner in a basically tied race is rick santorum, the new person with his time in the sun, to see if he can be that and have staying power to be the non-romney candidate. >> and that will depend if some of the other candidates who have fallen back, gingrich, perry, bachman

so, it is a historic night. >> we'll get more from matthew dowd shortly an "good morning america." >>> president obama is focused on the midwest, as well, this morning, as he heads to the key battleground state of ohio for a speech on the economy. last night, the president spoke to democratic caucusgoers in iowa, via video conference. he urged voters to help him battle what he called millions of dollars in negative ads. >>> and jon huntsman gets some company today. he had been the sole candidate in new hampshire. the former utah governor did not campaign in iowa. instead, focusing his resources on the new hampshire primary, which is next week. huntsman told a group of supporters, quote, nobody cares who wins in iowa. >>> abc is your place for the next debate. just three days now until george stephanopoulos and diane sawyer ask the tough questions. you can see it all saturday night, 9:00 eastern, 6:00 pacific. >>> arctic air gripping the east coast, has parts of florida plunging to record lows. farmers are scrambling to protect their crops. they're spraying berries and citrus to create

in the meantime, i want to bring in abc news political analyst matthew dowd, with us here in new york tonight. matthew, always great to have you. and you were telling me earlier what we all should be watching for in iowa, which is, not necessarily the winner to be chosen for the nomination, but for the field to be whittled down. >> we're about to get to the voting. months we've been waiting for this. and the voting in iowa usually doesn't pick the nominee, it picks who the nominee isn't. if you look at history, as recently as 2008, mike huckabee wins, not the republican nominee. john mccain becomes the republican nominee. that has happened over and over. iowa performs a very good function, which is, it whittles the field down from multiple candidates to a smaller number. >> when you look at this image, we pulled it up, the last abc news debate. you predict the next abc news debate, less than a week from now, we may not see the same people standing there? >> it will be a less crowded stage. one or two of the candidates probably won't be there. >> now, the white house surely watching io

with george will, ron brownstein from "the national journal" and abc's political pros matthew dowd and amy walter. >>> good morning, everyone. and overnight, it is a brand-new race for the republican nomination. after finishing fourth in iowa and fifth in new hampshire, former speaker of the house newt gingrich surged to a strong win in south carolina. look at those numbers. 40% of the votes to mitt romney's 28%. rick santorum third at 17%. in his victory speech last night, gingrich struck a populous chord. >> the american people feel that they have elites who have been trying for a half-century to force us to quit being americans. the reaction, people completely understand what's going on. it's not that i'm a good debater, it's that i articulate the deepest felt values of the american people. >> mitt romney attacked after congratulating gingrich. >> president obama has no experience running a business. and no experience running a state. our party can't be led to victory by someone who also has never owned a business and never run a state. >> yesterday's vote wasn't the only loss for r

let's ask matthew dowd. >> i not only think he can win. he is likely to win. he's dead even.f you take a look what his advisers are saying, they're saying, we were always in this for the long haul. it's a good signal they know momentum is on newt's side. you usually bet on momentum. >> has he essentially neutralized the negative impact of the abc news interview with his ex-wife. >> i think he not only has neutralized it, temporarily. it may always come back up. but he's turned it into an asset in how he confronted john king at the debate. the way he did it, the way the audience responded. >> that's jujitsu. >> absolutely. >> whoever wins the south carolina primary goes on to win the republican nomination. but mitt romney still has some formidable advantages. newt does not have a clear shot here if he wins the. >> we always go back to history. this race has been without historical precedence. we may have for the first time three different people win the first three races. south carolina always picked the nominee because someone else won iowa and new hampshire first. he has an

let's ask matthew dowd. good morning. thanks for getting up early on a saturday. we appreciate it.ou think he can win. >> i not only think he can win. he is likely to win. he went from being pioints behid several days ago. now he's dead even. if you take a look what his advisers are saying, they're saying, we were always in this for the long haul. it's a good signal they know momentum is on newt's side. you usually bet on momentum. >> has he essentially neutralized the negative impact of the abc news interview with his ex-wife? >> i think he not only has neutralized it, temporarily. it may always come back up. depending on how long this process goes. but he's turned it into an asset in how he confronted john king at the debate. the way he did it, the way the audience responded. he's taken it from a liability to an asset. >> that's jujitsu. >> it's absolutely jujitsu. >> whoever wins the south carolina primary goes on to win the republican nomination. but mitt romney still has some formidable advantages. in terms of money and organization in the coming states. newt does not have a c

george will, jake tapper, matthew dowd and donna brazile. >>> reporting from manchester, new hampshire, george stephanopoulos. [ applause ] >>> good morning, everyone. great to be back with you on sunday mornings. great to be here with this live audience right here in manchester. we got a terrific lineup this morning. right here on the same stage where all of the candidates debated last night. closing in on his first primary the stakes were high. mitt romney, way ahead in this state, he took some early heat from his rivals. zeroing in on romney's corporate background. as investor in bain capital. >> you got to lead and inspire. >> i'm not really enmored as a wall street model where you can flip companies, go in and have leverage buyouts. take out the money and leaving behind the workers. >> no one amounted a sustained attack. romney kept to his script. it was battle for second place finish here. including this one between ron paul and the man he's called a chicken hawk, newt gingrich. >> i think people who don't serve when they could and they get three or four or even five deferments a

>> rose: welcome to our ogram, tonight we taka look at the new hampshire primary with matthew dowd, al hunt, norah o'donnell and former senator from new hampshire judd gregg. >> everybody's been looking f somebody to build around a consensus candide to take on mi romney. that hasn't happed. but what has happened inhe last 24 hours for the first time in the race, there is a consensus message against mitt romney that every one of the a can dates are now repeating. >> rose: also a look at the film "the artist." the star is jean dujardin and berenice bejo and the film is directed by michel hazanavicius. >> to me, the story is more about how, a man, a human being, has to adapt himself in a transiti period and how when your world is changing you have to face that. hollywood or not hollywood, it's the same for everybody and especially now. the world is changing so fast that when you wor in a factory or in an office or in anywhere, things can change very quickly and you have to adapt yourself. i think it's more about that. rose: the new hampshire primary and the new silent film "the artist," w

jon meacham, matthew dowd and nate silver join the conversation. >> what people do is yearn for the past. what people do is say they have a voice and a message that says we can go bacards, we can go back, it's more comfortable, it's more settled. newt gingrich is really and much part ohis message is a yearning and a sense of there was america before that was much better and what president obama's done is taken us where from america should be and we can go back. i think the president has to... he has to do it not only tomorrow night-- is important tomorrow night but the next 300 days after that-- to lay out a vision of where he sees the future in a realisticway for the country to see how to get there. >> rose: we conclude this evening with the great swedish actor max von sydow whose newest film is "extremely loud and incredibly close." >> of cour this is a film about disaster. it's very pain informal many ways but it's also-- and i think that's more important-- a story about love and a story about hope. >> rose: the republican presidential contest and max von sydow when we continue. capti

byron york, craig robinson, matthew dowd. thanks one and all for being here today. want to go through those des moines register poll numbers again. the overall support numbers show, romney with 24%. paul, 22%. santorum, 15%. this is the four-day poll. in the last two days, just looking at the last two days it's actually romney with 24%. santorum with 21%. paul, 18%. byron, you have been somewhat bullish on santorum for time. >> i have. when you look at the other candidates, what happened to bachmann, to perry, to cain, they all fell because voters began to realize they weren't really prepared. they didn't have enough preparation or knowledge to be president. newt gingrich, lot of social conservatives can't get over the three-marriages parts. when you asked them what the problem was santorum was, they always said, he can't get elected. i really like him, but he can't get elected. but he has room to grow. gingrich is still falling. and there are some voters who still can go to santorum. >> you work for hillary clinton, who in the des moines register poll right before

joining me now in new york matthew dowd, he is with abc news and bloomberg news. from washington, charlie cook of the cook political report. fr des moines, kay henderson of radio iowa, and john harris of politico. i am pleased to have all of them here as we are on the eve of this extraordinary start to the 2012 political season. i begin with kay. tell me what it is... what's the moment, kay, on the ground. how do you size up where we are at this moment? >> well, if i could take a snapshot, it might be a photo finish. it appears romney, paul and santorum are aiming for one of those here in iowa. you have romney out there sort of claiming the mantle of front-ruer. you have santorum claiming the huckabee mantle from 2008. and you have ron paul's supporters on the phonesrying to turn their people out. >> rose: and who do you think has the best possibility of turning out? >> well, it's hard to tell, it doesn't appear in santorum will be able to coalesce the entire huckabee coalition from last time around which leads y to believe that romney, who's been building a cam c

examiner chief political correspondent byron york, craig robinson, found of the conservative blog, matthew dowdanks one and all for being here today. for giving up your new year's and for being here today. i want to go through those des moines register poll numbers again. the overall support numbers show romney with 24%. paul, 22%. santorum, 15%. but as you political junkie know, that this is the four-day poll. in the last two days, just looking at the last two days it's actually romney with 24%. santorum with 21%. paul with 18%. indicating some san-mentum. byron, you have been somewhat bullish on santorum for time. >> i have. he's the one who has room to grow. when you look at the other candidates, what happened to bachmann, to perry, to cain, they all fell because voters began to realize that they weren't really prepared. they didn't have enough preparation or knowledge to be president. newt gingrich, a lot of social conservatives still can't get over the three-marriages parts. he has fallen after all of these negative attack ads. when you asked them what the problem was santorum was, they al

now from washington, david brooks, column list for "the new york times", and here in new york matthew dowdoomberg news and abc news. david, what did last night tell you about the republican party, about the upcoming election, and about new hampshire? >> well, it has got some categories, what struck me was how democrat nothing at this matters if you look at the demography matters, it was pretty much the same as the dsimilar .. number of college educated, few more conservatives, similar number of young, old, and mittç"romney did exactly the same in 2 person then as now so he is tacked into those people doesn't seem to have gone above or below. >> a large chunk of social conservatives, rick santorum tapped into them so i think it was just a question of these blocks which are prett deep in the republican party as well as the libertarian block that ron paul tapped into, they are there, and they are still there, and so the landscape is still fundamenlly the same, my vie of romney, though, is that he is more likely to get the nomination now than he was a week ago,çó but he is still wea, and thque