matthew dowd. a tweet from pair sarah palin t morning. vows to defeat speaker ryan for defying trump. says ryan motivated by 2020 white house ambitions. kind of a declaration of war. can this breach be healed? does it have to be? >> well, i think, actually, the breach is not between -- fundamentally between the elite and donald trump. it's between various members of the elite and gop voters. the problem for the gop elite is that the g voters have spoken and donald trump represents their party. i think paul ryan and others in the party have to decide if the republican party, as it is today, represented by donald trump, is they party -- their party anymore. donald trump is not the problem for the gop elite. the republican voters are the problem for the gop elite. >> paul ryan supposed to be the chair of the convention. i asked donald trump if he should be chair. here it was. can paul ryan chair the convention if he doesn't endorse you? >> that's a question you have to ask him and reince and i guess me. ultimately me. >> yeah, that's why i'm

. >>> let's bring in matthew dowd for more. you're in l.a. you were one of the first to call the power of the trump candidacy back last summer. you just saw that map that jon karl showed right now. donald trump begins this general election as an underdog in the electoral map in the polling so can lightning strike twice? >> well, that's the interesting thing. you know, we don't know and i think the fascinating thing about donald trump, george, is you and i have talked about. almost as if this is out of greek mythology, the development of donald trumphe of the gop establishment gave birth to donald trump through their actions and inactions and now the son of a titan has slain his father like z. us and rules over mt. olympus now headed to an epic battle against hillary clinton so he starts off at a series disadvantage but i don't think we can understand donald trump's ability in this sphere. >> well, matthew dowd is forcing me to pick up on his analogy, jack. the other gods on mt. owe limb pugs are not there with him yet. >> i don't know if clev

matthew dowd is here along with republican strategist kellyanne conway and, matthew, let me begin with ads that the super pac supporting hillary clinton is bringing up. as jon said they'll spend about $130 million over not trump voters, those hard core trump voters but suburban women, moderates, will it be effective? >> the goal not to actually move women in the course of this because donald trump is doing so poorly right now among women, it's to create a barrier that is solid that donald trump can't get over to get back in a competitive race with hillary clinton among those women so it's actually to create a solid barrier. i actually think donald trump has made a smart move which is don't respond to this with paid advertising. respond to this by going on the air by doing interviews. it's a much more genuine response to paid advertising and worked in the primaries. we'll see if it works in the general election. >> that is the big question and kellyanne, we have seen in the past the efforts to define a candidate relatively early in the process have been effective in very effective, in f

. >>> let's talk about this with matthew dowd and republican pollster and strategist kellyanne conway and let me begin with you, matthew. you have this summit coming up thursday between paul ryan, the senate leadership and donald trump. will this be decisive? >> well, i think it's an important moment in the campaign. here's the situation, george. donald trump has had a hostile takeover of the republican party and the incumbent establishment executives of that company have to decide, one, do they go along with the new ownership or, two, do they walk, and i think that's what the meeting is about. is paul ryan going to be part of the new takeover that donald trump has of the republican party. >> good way of putting it. kellyanne, donald trump goes in to this meeting now with the new polls with strength in his pocket. >> he does especially in the swing states which is really what matters. they're meaningless when you look at these swing states. more competitive race and i think that's because donald trump has been consistently underestimated for a year and hillary clinton has been overest

joined by matthew dowd, cokie roberts, bill kristol, editor of "the weekly standard" just out with his 1000th edition. congratulations. and donna brazile. this will be a tight race. >> i think it will be incredibly volatile. i think primarily driven by the fact that we have two candidates, as you showed in the beginning of this thing who are incredibly unpopular with the vast majority of the american public. both very unpopular. both distrusted. it's almost as if, to me, it's like the 1927 yankees playing the 1998 yankees. two great teams but the rest of the country is out of the conversation. >> this is all before the general election campaign begins. it's actually hard to imagine that either one of those candidates will get ah above 50% favorability. >> i think this is the high point of favorability in the course of this. i think you'll see, it will be an unpopularity contest over the next five months. >> some of that depends on the conventions. >> i thinkhe bump. >> the democrats could get a decrease. >> the poll is 50% of each of the candidates' voters are not voting for the candid

abc news political analyst matthew dowd. abc news contributor and espn senior writer lz granderson. e.j. anderson. donald trump about 15 points ahead of cruz in a new poll out. does cruz have a shot at stopping trump? >> no. bottom line. senator cruz ought to take his own advice which he gave to john kasich a month ago. when you're mathematically eliminated, it's time to get out of the race. even if ted cruz was to surprise and take indiana, he can't win the nomination. the numbers aren't there. you can feel it in watching ted cruz and watching his folks that they understand it. they understand it's slipped away. maybe it's time to fold his tent. >> e.j., you wrote this week that trump is still not inevitable. still think that? >> i do, because of the opposition among so many republicans and the deep split in the party. i was struck this george will, on the one hand, writes a column saying let's elect hillary, hold the senate, we can win it back in 2020. peggy noonan writes that the republican base no longer sees itself as conservative the way washington writers define it. i think a

. >> tom, let's talk about this with cokie roberts and matthew dowd. donald trump going into the playbook of the 1990s right there going back to so many of these issues discussed right then, the question is what kind of ref advanrelevance will it h >> a lot don't remember these things because they weren't born but this election will come down to how white women vote and i think that the fact is that women will be very upset if they think that another woman is being blamed for her husband's infidelities. >> you agree with that, matt? >> no, i actually think -- i mean one of the things about donald trump, george, we've talked about, he was smarter where voters were among 16, 17 candidates in the primary. i think he has a very good tact on where they are today. first of all i think the argument reminds voters she's of the past and for voters under 40 they have no idea about this so it basically places her in the past. two, gop voters want to litigate this issue so helps him consolidate the base very quickly which he's done in the course of this and this a

. >> let's bring in jon karl and matthew dowd to talk more about it, cecilia.t, let me begin with you looking at the national landscape and that all-important elec of hole and has to hold every state that mitt romney won in 2012 then flip some big ones like ohio and florida. >> yeah, i think every republican running for president over the last five elections starts off at a disadvantage now in the electoral college which is a reversal. i think he has to expand the map and expand it to places like michigan and pennsylvania but, george, the problem for donald trump is before he gets to geography, he has to deal with demography. before he picks states has to fix his problem with latino voters and his problem with women voters. but long before he gets to the states. >> jon karl, even before he gets to that has to fix the problems with the republican party. got some support yesterday but you point out both former presidents bush will not speak out on this election at all a. he did however get the senate republican leader behind him. >> that's right, mitch mcconnell

. >> let's bring in cecilia vega right here and, of course, matthew dowd.att, i want to put up that tweet from donald trump with the taco bowl, of course, tweeting i love hispanics but i'm curious when he sends out a tweet like that does he think it will help with hispanic voters. >> when i heard taco bowl i thought texas was playing usc in a football game. i don't think it will help or hurt him in the course of this or have an effect on the race. i think his big mistake was ordering tex-mex in new york city and was probably a mistake. the neck thing i anticipate is being irish. of him having guinness and poe pate tos on st. patrick's day. >> he's got an uphill battle here. >> he has a huge uphill battle, david. that's one of his biggest vulnerability. he can't win this election today with those things. he has to figure out a way to fix the support among hispanics as well as fix his support among women >> let's bring in cecilia vega who covers the clinton campaign. did we get a window into clinton's tragedy using his words and showing america what he said 2

. >> let's dig in with jon karl and matthew dowd and let's begin with this delegate race on the democraticide. hillary clinton worried about california but she could go over the top even before those votes are counted. >> reporter: oh, absolutely. this would be a much bigger comeback than what we saw in the nba. take a look. when you look at the numbers she only needs 73 more delegates to clinch with six states voting next tuesday. that means she is almost certain to go ahead of the mark she needs to clinch long before they count the votes in california. >> and how about the republican si donald trump is already clinched but this isn't just a win, this is a win that is historic. take a look at the numbers. he already has more raw votes than any other republican candidate in the primaries and he will likely get a million more in california alone on tuesday, so this is not just a win but as he might say a huge win. >> a huge win. that's right. let's bring in matt dowd on this third party possibly coming up. we don't have the details on who it may be or when they're getting in but you can und

the kim melman operation and pride new technology in advance, innovative beyond what kim melman, matthew dowdthis is so trump to be so absolutist. you certainly need the power of a personality, but what drives people to the polls is sort of the back side of that. he's going to try to do it without it, more success to him. if he fails, you may look back on this as one of the reasons why. >> i think he looks at the example from the primaries. everyone said you couldn't do it. everyone said you had to go to iowa, new hampshire, talk to people at diners, knock on doors. i had rallies, got thousands to see me, neighbors told were how great i was. why should i expect to do anything different in the general election. that's the theory of the case. >> the question is, is the general election different from primaries. i believed it is. look at donald trump's poll numbers right now. maybe he's right again and everybody is wrong. >> the only way i think that he might be is that you can't discount math. you can't discount what needs to be put in place to build the structure of a campaign and spread the w

my friend matthew dowd likes to say, it's like two dinosaurs.e republican party, but it's going to hit both of them. >> reverend al sharpton. >> i tried to get the scarborough third party ticket. >> all that wall street money. >> do you need taxes? yeah. reverend al sharpton, thank you very much. >> let's do it, baby. >> robert costa, thank you. ron fournier, thank you, as well. >> hi, donald! >> you boys, stop it. still ahead on "morning joe" -- you need to stop -- the promise of populism. goading. why the hope of returning power to the people lies with a millionaire and a billionaire. >>> plus, tom brokaw joins the conversation, next on "morning joe." trolling for a gig with braindrone? can't blame you. it's a drone you control with your brain, which controls your thumbs, which control this joystick. no, i'm actually over at the ge booth. we're creating the operating it's called predix. it's gonna change the way the world works. ok, i'm telling my brain to tell the drone to get you a copy of my resume. umm, maybe keep your hands on the control