we'll see. >> matthew dowd?ndependents and that's going to determine who wins this. why donald trump is president of the united states. a specific race people should be aware of is the beto o'rourke/ted cruz race in texas. that race is closer than what people think. they're very concerned, first time they have been concerned about losing a statewide race in texas in 20 years. >> an opportunity to talk about the early vote. just saw this come in overnight, already more people have voted in the state of texas, two days out from the vote, than voted in the entire of 2014. >> they're thinking that vote in texas. most of the growth in those -- new people, young people and latinos. >> beto o'rourke wins in texas he's atop the pack of 2020. >> he's already a rock star. he'll become the biggest rock star. >> donna? >> i'm watching the oprah effect. i'm watching georgia, stacey abrams is finishing up her campaign on education. i want to see her win and i want to see her win decisively. i'm watching the other states as we

. >>> a lot to talk about this morning, so let's bring in our chief political analyst, matthew dowd. matthew, good morning. the president, as we just saw, threatening to shut down the entire southern border over these migrants in tijuana. to you does that sound reasonable or even feasible? >> well, much with president trump is not always reasonable or feasible, but i think this is what the president has been talking about for the last month and a half. he's obviously -- he's recently threatened to shut down the government if he doesn't get his border wall. i think almost the -- this is an exclusive humanitarian problem, not a security problem and if the president wanted to do something about security, there was much more violence happened as the start of the show said at malls in america on black friday than it has at the border, so i think this is just another political message he's trying to send to his base of voters that are concerned about immigration. >> let me loop back for a moment to jerome corsi, who we heard about in the story that david wright brought us just a few moments

>> that's good. >> thanks to abc's matthew dowd. come over more often, too. >> give trump some credit for this. >> say that again. >> give trump some credit for this. the reason the turnout set records yesterday was people that supported donald trump and people oose donald trump came out. >> that's what you're supposed to do when you vote. that's how you're supposed to do it. this is what voting is supposed to look like. we'll be right back. >>> was congresswoman-elect, ilhan omar afraid to run as a muslim woman in america? and why she says there's no debate the president is racist. she's live on "the view" next. what does help for heart ilure look like? ♪ the beat goes on. it looks like emily cooking dinner for ten. ♪ the beat goes on. it looks like jonathan on a date with his wife. ♪ la-di-la-di. entresto is a heart failure medicine that helps your heart... so you can keep on doing what you love. in the largest heartailure study ever, entresto was proven superior at helping people stay alive and out of the hospital. it helps impro

for whom this whole story brings back incredibly fond memories, abc news chief political analyst matthew dowdho worked for george w. bush in the year 2000. you have a mug, a commemorative mug. >> victory the day after which wevered was way premature because it took 31 more days of recounts in florida. >> so here we are again. >> ptsd, thank you. >> so, you know, we've got a lot of people on the right saying that there's something fishy going on here. you keep finding these new ballots. what's going on? do you smell something fishy? >> there's been no evidence that there's been a problem in here and i think there's a difference between fraud and incompetence. there's definitely incompetence on election night all over the country, but let me give you a stat, in 2016, after election day was over, the day after election day, there were still 10 million ballots to be counted around the country. my estimate as of today around the country there are 4 million or 5 million ballots to be counted, california, arizona, where there's close races going on. so this is not unusual that ballots are counted, b

midterms, presidential, matthew dowd. thank you.re going to take a quick break, we'll be right back. i'm a musician about to embark on a concert tour,r. with the majority of which will be down south. atlantic city? the deep south. this thanksgiving... in the deep south, there's gonna be problems. when you see me worried... tony. you'll know if i'm worried. how about some quiet time. it's amazing you said that, my wife used to say that all the time. their journey inspired an unexpected friendship. i don't think i ever met anyone with your appetite. [ laughing ] (man) hey portal, call rory. happy birthday! (woman) awww, you remembered! (man) of course i remembered, you're my sister. (woman) what'd you get me? (man) uhhh, i got you...this! (woman) it's half dead. (man) just like you! (woman) oooooh! wait until your birthday comes. [man laughing] >>> good evening. i'm dan ashley. >> i'm ama daetz. >>> the polls will close at 8:00 p.m. if you have a vote by mail ballot, you can drop it off at any polling place as long as you get it there

experts including former new jersey governor chris christie, donna brazile, former chair of the dnc, matthew dowdpolitical analyst. former governor chris christie, what is your friend, donald j. trump, thinking tonight? >> what he always thinks, i won. he's going to say, i added seats in the united states senate. i went into red states that i'd won and got republican senators there. vanquished some people who opposed my agenda. and oh, the house? that was paul ryan's fault is i think what we'll hear at some point from the president. i think the president's going to look at that, look at the landscape of the governors, where he did better than expected, and say, this was a good night for me, and he'll move on. but i also think the one change i think he will make is, from an issues perspective, you'll see a guy who's going to look for opportunity to make an unexpected deal with house democrats that gives him credibility moving into 2020. >> donna brazile, would your former chair of the democratic national committee work, donald trump be right in telling himself a story that he won? if you look at t

including former new jersey governor chris christie, donna brazile, former chair of the dnc and matthew dowdyst. again, the headline of the night, the balance of power in washington shifting. you can see it right there. the democrats retaking the house of representatives, meanwhile the republicans increasing their majority in the u.s. senate so let's start here with you, former governor chris christie. what is your friend donald j. trump thinking tonight? >> what he always think, i won. he's going to say i added seats in the united states senate. i went into red states that i had won and got republican senators there, vanquished some people who opposed my agenda and, oh, the house, that was paul ryan's fault is i think what we'll hear from the president at some point. i think the president is going to look at that and the landscape of the governors where he did better than expected and say this was a good night for me and he'll move on. but i also think the one change i think he will make is from an issues perspective you're going to see a guy who will look for an opportunity to make an unex

. >>> joining us now in the flesh for a change, abc news chief political analyst matthew dowd. great to see you. >> great to be here. >> usually you're via satellite. >> from wimberley, texas. >> a hot state in terms of the campaign right now. you just heard donald trump said for the first time apparently that it's possible the republicans could lose the house. that's what the polls are indicating. the polls also indicate the republicans are likely to retain the senate, however, in 2016 the polls were not super reliable in some ways. so what should we believe? >> yeah, i said in 2016 that hillary clinton had a 90% chance of being president of the united states, so we know how that goes. i think, first of all, they should watch abc news on tuesday. that's the first thing people should do. i think the thing to pay attention to in 2016 the national polls were right. they basically said hillary would win the popular vote and she won the popular vote. so those were right. i think state by state and district by state we have no idea. and as tara just said, the early voting is setting

about it at our round table with our senior correspondent mary bruce, political correspondent matthew dowdntate of sara fagen, former new jersey governor chris christie and former mayor of chicago rahm emanuel. let's start out, matt, talking overall about the midterms, your big take away. >> first of all, this is like 12 days of christmas where as each day goes on it gets better for the democrats. from this vantage point this was a bad day for the republicans. it wasn't a split decision. if you take a look at all the data, the democrats picked up more seats than since watergate. the democrats picked up more governorships since 1982. when you look at that expanse and then put it in the context that the last president with an economy like this, had a 20-point higher job approval rating and their uncup a >> all true, but how rare is it for a president to pick up seats in the hou in the senate and loss seats in the congress? >> the country is divided geographically and demographically. places that are red become redder and blue become bluer. >> the republicans did do well in the senate. i do a

he come back and look at this, in november, early december of 2000, english government member, matthew dowd, wrote a memo. and in a memo he said, elections are no longer won between voters in the middle, they are won been turning out your own voters. he's a good guy and he was the weatherman, you just telling you what the weather was outside. after the 2000 election, 2 that strategico that document, the doctrine in politics was that you had to go get your nomination and if you saw an inch back toward the you would be a different kind of democrat or you would always hear that kind of thing. then a very decided that there was no value to the senate, so they abandon the senate. won -- if youow look at the race in a 1992, what was in my mind of the time was somebody in ohio or florida, or mexico, who might have voted for reagan, but voted for john kennedy, those were the prized possessions. possession, prized for either party, whoever has a low propensity to vote, but has a high propensity to vote for you. so you are trying to reach that person way more than the person in the center. to a large

panel right now, jon karl, former new jersey governor, chris christie, chief political analyst matthew dowd and democratic strategist donna brazile. math thur, let me begin with you. you can cut the results ino ny . it's almost like we have two different countries living inside our borders. >> and each are doing well among their group. as i said last night on the election outcome, it's geography where republicans have more red states and more areas, and democrats have demography which is a growing group of voters that are voting more with them. they won the popular vote overwhelmingly last night but it doesn't do either side any good and that's why we had another split decision to run up the score in home games but not be able to score in away games and that's what each side is doing. >> president trump won where he campaigned, no question about that. he's added to his his majority but he's waking up to a new world in washington this morning. >> it's an entirely new world. the democrats are in control of the house. they will control the agenda in the house and they will be issuing subpoenas