joining us matthew graham. do you really suspect foul play and i'm only asking about the smoke in the plane, does that suggest that was mechanical failure? >> well, it could, but again 90,000 flights a day take off and land and we have egypt air flight that in the middle of the night again crashes in an unknown manner, so whether fire is manmade or mechanical, we are seeing a pattern with flights in and around that area that appears to point to foul play. nicole: what do you think happened? we talked about smoke detected. you have gone through the many scenarios, any more likely than other based on what you learned thus far? >> i was an air marshall and i was team leader on the flight in '06, the explosives coming out of london and i have experience with aviation and terrorism. what i see with this fire is much like richard reed, reed attempted to light a shoe box, produces smoke, maybe this one was. we have the pop can, beer can coming out a couple of months ago, there's a pattern here and the pattern is most