can you square these opinions with the matthew luzzetti call? the way i'm thinking about the inflation side of things, and we have 3% core pce inflation through the end of the year, both driven by the supply side and the demand side and the strength we have seen. we have recent evidence on the goods demand side that is beginning to dissipate, which is somewhat of a welcome event or realization from an inflation perspective. we have also seen inventories begin to build which is helpful to bring inflation down. on the consumer front, there is so much focus on the aggregate consumer which looks great from an aggregate perspective, debt to income ratios have come down, debt service ratios are at record low levels. we should be cognizant that consumers are facing headwinds today. real wage growth is negative. gas prices are increasing substantially. that is a big hit to income. we have seen successive waves of covid. one data point i would highlight is our favorite cyclical indicator for the consumer, it takes the gap between the present conditions i