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tom: i think we just saw their mike mckee gets the last question.to the inflation debate, oil prices, uaw strike, and house prices. how do you anticipate a chairman powell navigating those three issues? henrietta: oil for the moment he has to say we look through that because we do not know where oil is going. and for how long. we cannot lower oil prices by raising interest rates. if it went on for a long time and the inflation expectations got unanchored, the fed might want to do something but they're going to put it in terms of inflation expectations. house prices they know they have been rising in recent months but the house prices take a long time to get into the economy and into the data and now it looks like what we are seeing is still the clients from -- declines from the ones we have had for the past year. uaw strike depends on how long it lasts. i would have added the government shut down because if the government shut down, they could be more people along with uaw, if it brought in strike were on unemployment benefits and that could mess up

michael mckee mckee will be in conversation with tom barkin.pero todavía tenemos wifi para hacer las tareas. ¿y eso es algo bueno? wifi y estudiar. buenísimo. wifi y pedir una pizza online sería buenísimo. presentamos storm ready wifi. solo de xfinity. ahora puedes mantener una conexión confiable durante apagones, con datos celulares ilimitados y batería de respaldo de hasta 4 horas para mantenerte conectado. obténlo solo con xfinity. el hogar del 10g network. entérate más hoy. hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery. to avoid the surgery, i had to make a change. so i decided to go with golo and it's changed my life. when i first started golo and taking release, my cravings, they went away. and i was so surprised. you feel that your body is

i think mike mckee will have a play around with that conversation.i like to see if he reaffirms if we go back to a low r-star which is his territory and that will be something. we will see this this afternoon. michael mckee in conversation with the gentleman from the new york fed. the gentleman from emerging markets, damian sassower, is here and the mr. you have about china, about japan at the e.m., 147-140 eight on e.m. in yen and we will go more walk. we will talk about what matters, to me what matters is the real rates in the united states, 1.9 seven. in your world, relative real rate differentials matter. explain the real rate of indonesia versus a real rate of others. seema: so good you picked indonesia were market rate measures a real yields of term positive. brazil and chile being another one. looking at real differentials between the emerging markets in u.s., currency strapped that well over time so real yields metal. -- matter. what we see with chile and pull and more recently -- jonathan: that was a big cup from poland. seema: very unexpect

it's slow to mckee, then things are better than you might expect at oakland road. here is the backup just south of alum rock, slow approaching from 280 past mckee. back to you. >> thanks, mike. >>> 6:10 right now. one step closer to their goal, you might say. coming up, new developments in the effort to build a new home for two popular bay area soccer teams. >>> plus, let the music play. san francisco's outside lands is expanding. we're going to tell you the new details on next year's extra details on next year's extra long festival and the impact you know i got two home runs. you got two, jack. and then my grand slam. i signed a ball for you. okay. and it says "papa i love you". why did you do that? because you've taught me everything about baseball. oh hunny bunny, that's so sweet. ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) at cretors, we handcraft every batch of our delicious popcorn. like our cretors cheese and caramel mix. great on their own, even better together. try cretors, handcrafted small-batch popcorn. >>> good wednesday morning. 6:13. in san jose, a beautiful look over downtown ri

michael mckee.veillance -- bloomberg surveillance. ♪ ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund, so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys will work with your cpa to determine if your company is eligible. [whip sound] take the first step to see if your small business qualifies. tom: jobs day in america. jonathan arrow and lisa abramowicz on the shin -- jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz on vacation. katie greifeld in. with our usual lineup of brilliance to give you perspective on american labor in the economy. futur

jon: michael mckee, our economic and politics editor. matt: coming up, blue owl's marc lipschultz joins us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com this is a clustomer. hello! it's what happens when marketers group customers with very different behaviors... into one tangled mess. this is a mess! with mailchimp, marketers can use real-time behavior data, to personalize every email for every customer. turning clustomers, into customers. intuit mailchimp. the #1 email marketing & automation platform. you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh >> this is bloomberg mar

matt: michael mckee joins us from the federal reserve live. i guess what we are really expecting or what we really are looking forward to is a new summary of the economic projections which we get four times per year as well as a new dot plot. >> i think that is what everybody will turn to first. they want to see whether the fed retains the idea of one more rate move this year. they probably are going to. why not? it does give him at least the option of raising rates without market angst. then they will look at 2024, does the fed raise the number of dots? do they project few array cuts next year than they have? the median is 4.6, almost a full percentage point down. or do they see inflation coming down faster? that is what people are going to be looking for today into what comes next rather than anything they do today. matt: thanks very much. we will check in with you throughout the afternoon, michael mckee, our bloomberg economics and politics correspondent out of the federal reserve in washington, d.c.. i want to bring in joe davis who is her

do you feel like something has changed, mike mckee?ike: american football started last night and the kids have gone back to school so we tipped into fall but beyond that, we get more confirmation. fed officials who have been speaking this week endorsing the laws idea -- pause idea for the month of september. and officials speaking basically said we don't know, but we think we may be need to do more. the markets are leaning in those directions but that is not different from what we have seen in recent wing -- weeks. alix: what you think has the narrative change? ira: i agree largely the narrative did not completely shift this week, but around the edges, there is nuance that it has. one of the things that ira -- higher oil prices means and you see this with the next week cpi forecast. you have 5% expected. only 2% encore. will we see higher oil prices contributing to inflation more? number one, number two that has an impact on the consumer. and there is a narrative coming in meaning slower real growth. that is bad for risk assets and goo

louis fed president sits down with michael mckee.e left the fomc. lisa: it doesn't surprise me. i would be curious what he has to say about what we were talking about which is growth versus inflation for the bank of england. is it doing the same at the federal reserve and was that the subtle messaging behind not saying goldilocks. tom: it's un-american. he's gonna indiana user -- university phd. the answer is jim bullock will tell you we will not roll over and die with high interest rates. that will be his core belief. jonathan: i wouldn't say growth is more important at the federal reserve this federal reserve based on these projections, you can pick up on the language that chairman powell used and they are forecasting the growth that has to. get them back to target lisa: and they are forecasting they will not have the difficult medicine of higher unemployment to face up with as they potentially raise rates further. jonathan: no change in the bank of england but plenty of changes elsewhere. and marie will join us from new york next.

mike mckee joins. zoe, christine lagarde will have an interesting challenge tomorrow and it looks like inflation will remain sticky. what do we think the ecb will tell us tomorrow? zoe: people familiar with the forecast have told us 2024 inflation forecast will be higher than 3%. in june, the last time they gave forecast, they were predicting 3% next year and the economist forecast ahead of the meetings also the majority predicted there would be an upgrade. above 3%. why is that significant? the ecb is in a situation, the growth numbers in the last few weeks, remember we got the pmi numbers three weeks ago now, they were saying growth is falling off a cliff in europe. why the ecb doesn't have a growth mandate, the fact growth is doing badly, the economy doing badly, would have been one of the things that could have moved without the ecb having to do anything, tempering inflation. a forecast above 3% next year and above 2% in '25 is something the ecb cannot calm down. a hike is looking probable. alix: t

bloomberg's denitsa tsekova and michael mckee, thank you. coming up, more insight into the question of the day, how much pain are the pmi's predicting? we will talk with victor, elm partners management founder and cio. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> a lot of times, these numbers we are looking out across the board, we are looking at the economy, we are trying to figure out where we are going, and again, these will help us realize the reality is there are issues in the markets, there are issues in the economy, and even though we have been seeing such a great trajectory of stocks in the markets, overall there's issues to come and we have to think about them. guy: issues to come. kathy it whistle -- kathy entwistle speaking to us in the last hour. takes a -- takes us back to the question of the day. how much pain are the pmi's predicting? in the u.s., a little less. the markets obviously on tenterhooks. we are in a period of massive uncertainty. we have been in periods of massive uncertainty before and some of those with a ringside seat to those perio

later today john williams will sit down with michael mckee mckee at the bloomberg markets forum.will be live across all of our bloomberg that forms at 8:30 u.k. time. coming up, south korean chipmaker huawei is looking at the use of its components in the latest -- south korean chipmaker, hynix, is looking at the use of its components in the latest huawei phone. this is bloomberg. ♪ dani: bank of england governor bailey says u.k. interest rates are near the top of the cycle, with inflation to fall further this year. he signaled how fuel prices could play into the inflation picture. >> inflation is coming down. our forecast is performing better. it is, i should say, possible that we will get a tick up because fuel prices went down in august last year, and up a bit this year. dani: joining us is lizzy burden. it seems like a hot potato to suggest they are done hiking rates. he did this in january, it did not go well and they have a decision. lizzy: this is a dovish tilt from andrew bailey. you talked about what a day it was for the rest of the world but two year yields decline three

mike mckee, what do you see ?tine lagarde and think about what the market and jay powell think with retail sales up august, significantly higher than the .1% forecast. x autos up .6%. the retail sales control group leading on that. let's being calculated as we speak. couple other numbers. initial jobless claims, 220,000. we don't know what the revision is yet. there was 216,000 last week but it tells you we are still in a low claims environment. continuing claims are at 1,688,000. ppi has come in as well, up .7%, a significant increase over the .3% the prior month and .4% expected. if you look at the core, energy, food and trade services, that's up .3% compared to .2% last time. we are seeing some inflation pressures at the basic level of the wholesaler. we are seeing some problems with inflation but retail sales so far not being affected. up .1%. that's less than 1% decline forecasted. jobless claims are weak. ppi shows some inflation records. >> mike mckee, thank you. it gets better for america as it gets worse.

michael mckee joins us now.t month but less than anticipated on a year-over-year basis, 3.5%, up from 3%. the court up only 8.1% -- the core of only .8% -- .1%. we are getting revisions because yesterday the revised gdp affects the pce. core deflator up .1%. year-over-year up 3.9%. the prior month was up 4.3%. a bigger drop even though the prior month was revised. some progress from the fed. the headline number, 3.4% in july up to 3.5% in august. other numbers out now, trade balance 83 point -- 83%. inventory down .5%. --.1%. retail inventory up 1.1%. all of those numbers will get factored into a maybe higher gdp number. tom: the market likes what it sees. futures up. the yields, 10-year gilts comes 4.54%. i did a triangulation of the past 10 days of the 10 year yield and the critical point is 4.51%. we are not there yet. lisa: i am glad to go to the technical aspect of this. the data does not offer conclusive kinds of messages. what stands out to me is this is your soft landing beautiful scenario. consumers are

alix: yields are popping let's get to that with michael mckee.ike: it matches the third quarter gdp. services come in at 54 .5. that is up from 52.7. new orders rise 50 75 -- 57.5 from 55. unemployment rises but it is too late to use that in terms of forecasting the august payrolls but it it was 54.7. supplies are easing under the weather a little bit at 48.5 but 48.1 was the previous. and prices paid 58.9 compared to 56.8. questions asked about if we see the economy further re-accelerate does that lead to higher prices? that is something they are keeping an eye on. at this point, it looks like on the services side, things are pretty good. 54.5 is a good headline number. guy: it is amazing this data is sensational considering where we are in the rate hikes we have already had. sensational numbers. this economy is cracking on and really doing business. thank, mike mckee. analysis with ism services emi -- pmi chair. we are talking numbers. these numbers are strong. give me your analysis on how we should be reading the data. >> looking at the four s

joining us is policy correspondent mike mckee, and kristine aquino. is this what forces the consumer to batten down the hatches? kristine: all of the things you mentioned, it sounds flimsy. i think we have seen resilience of consumers in the u.k. and the u.s., but a lot of it is debt fueled. oil at $100 sounds like the wildcard that could topple a delicate house of cards, which is what we are sitting on. alix: mike, what do you think? mike: i don't know if oil will but i am depressed about christmas because of the list of things that can go wrong. [laughter] that list, would you could expand on quite easily and throw in the government shutdown and the uaw strike, but you do not know what that situation is going to be like in december or november when people are starting their christmas shopping. that is part of the problem the central banks have. they do not know what is going to be happening then. $100 oil sounds bad and if it pushes us up to $5 a gallon, it will crimp what is available to spend, but people spend during the holidays anyway. we have s

ann mckee is director of the boston university cte center.h found that 92% of 376 former nfl players studied had the brain disease. >> that's a destructive process. >> but one caveat, those families who donated the brains most likely suspected cte in their loved ones. i met up with miller at biocorps, an nfl-funded research lab in charlottesville, virginia, to test out some of the league's cutting-edge innovations as they seek to make the game safer. >> i am seeing some helmets that are super old school and some that look like a lamborghini. the helmet that i wore in my last years in the nfl, 2008, 2009, 2010, these are all now banned by the league. >> last year for the first time we saw position specific helmet designed for linemen. they have more hits to the front or the crown of their head. this year we'll see a quarterback-specific helmet. frequently because the back of their head hits the ground. >> three, two, one. >> you jumped. >> ooh. >> what force was that? >> that's on the lower end of what would cause a concussion. >> as awesome a

tom: sales of all of this is donna nominal, including michael mckee's retail sales number.ail pulse is a huge precursor to what we see getting october 13 with j.p. morgan. lisa: anecdotally we hear people pulling back. when we start to see that in the grainy only -- in the granular earnings data? why would people spend that if they are spending so much. home price data as well as the new home sales, that comes out tomorrow. i'm curious if anything is moving. jobless claims thursday. the key day of the week is friday as well as core pce data. how much do we see the economic surprise inflict upward in a u.s. seeing this quinfecta of threats, this toxic brew that may be it is getting difficult. a hexfecta, what is that? tom: six. lisa: is that bill having a martini? tom: he has the olives. we have cut him off. if you are part of global wall street, arguably this is the conversation of the day. katy kaminski, the title is boring, chief retail strategist at alpha simplex. far more importantly, out of the buying in m.i.t. boston, is trend based. she and her shop follow trends and

first, michael mckee is with us.mberg economics and they have modeled out 4% nominal gdp. elaine: we have the new bloom -- mike m.: we have the new bloomberg economists survey. here is the interesting thing for september. economists are now seeing 2.1% growth for 2023. in december of last year, they saw 3/10 of a percent, so we have really marked up growth. it is coming in stronger than the fed had been dissipated. the study suggests we will see 3% growth in the third quarter, which would be lower than the atlanta fed gdp is forecasting, but that is up from august. some real changes to the way people are looking at growth. if take a look at the five-year forward, it has been pulled up by these growth forecasts. wall street is now expecting more inflation, is why you get people musing about the fed having to go much higher and throwing out silly things like 7%. tom: we can get in -- lisa:. i'm tereus new start -- lisa: i'm curious. when you start gaming that out, what do people say when people are talking about the to

jonathan: michael mckee is sitting down with john williams, where and a good place tk.dependency and next week it's a big week attached to the ppi and cpi. jonathan: next week and then the federal reserve after that. we bring up apple stock over the past couple of days. today losing streak down more than 6% over the last two days. after the story of china banning iphones and state firms as well. that's by 3%. while way having some competition - huawei having competition. tom: we have mr. webb, alex webb is a student of all this technology out of london. does hallway have an ecosystem - hauwie have an eco system? >> when we think about china and ecosystems. they use wechat and super apt platforms. it is easier to pull yourself out of an iphone and going to an android where are most widely found is ios and apple. tom: what will apple do? we've had a lot of speculation about how they will respond. you know the people. how will the apple management respond? >> they issued a profit warning and all of a sudden started writing off apple. and now, $3 trillion valuation. they wi

i solution is tanisha something people like these just keen for us on that back here. 30, some ivy mckee will spell it goes way in the portion of the sub gimme out of the floor base that you, that you only a couple of single muta, privately squared lights. most dynamical cranes, great army, is up with a 000. was the sure through where i know the low as of biscuits and you are still definitely given to them by not joe not fit yet. so essentially $6.00. i bought the with blonde, the, you'll be doing the retard us marine connell and former virginia state senator richard black as 1st hand experience of all 590. and he noticed it in the marine cool. when the vietnam war broke couch chief volunteer to go to the front as a helicopter pilots in vietnam, i flew 269 combat missions. the fighting was very, very active at the time and my helicopter was hit my ground fire and 4 times and once machine gun fire caught the the flight controls and we crash landed when an air traffic controller was needed to guide closed support at the front, richard black volunteered again. for 3 months, i dropped the hi

solution is tanisha some say people like these just keen for what's on that back in the some of a mckee was spelled out because was way in the formation of the subcommittee out the door basically, and they only a couple of single muta, privately squared lights, most dynamic lagrange great army, is up to 2000. the state issue give you 3 where i know the best, but it's a different types of national definitely given even that by nat geo and not fit yet . so if somebody's daughters that i bought the blonde that you'll be doing the retard us marine connell and former virginia state center to richard black as 1st hand experience of all of 19 henry listed in the marine corps. when the vietnam war broke couch chief volunteer to go to the front as a helicopter pilots in vietnam, i flew 269 combat and missions. the fighting was very, very active at the time and my helicopter was hit my ground fire and 4 times and was to machine gun fire caught the the flight controls and we crash landed when an air traffic controller was needed to guide close and support at the front richard black volunteered aga

the only better place to be would be with mike mckee in washington. >> were you going to say something? >> the only cut we care about is alex's haircut. >> we can talk about it. i'm very pleased. >> excellent. these are the cuts that are important. we got to the punch, eventually. thank you very much, indeed. the fed decides new york time. you are looking forward to that a little later. more on our question of the day, are we there yet? we have climbed the matterhorn and we are back again or are we going to be there for a while? we will speak to the cio, joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh >> the fed will do what we all expect it to do. >> a hawkish pause. >> a pause button indication that they are willing to do more. >> they will keep open the possibility of another hike. >> they are going to remain vigilant. >> they will make it clear. >> the big question is, are they going to do something in november? >> i think that the fed is done hiking rates

let's go to michael mckee for the numbers. michael: from ism on the manufacturing side, better it on the headline, comes out at 47.6 percent. the estimate was for 47%. the new orders index falls to 47 point 3% but production rises to 50%. employment, 48.5% from 44.4%. that may affect given people more of a handle on what we would have seen on the jobs report. inventories, 44% from 46%. prices rising, suggesting still contraction but maybe at a slower pace. overall, a mixed picture on the ism front. i just read the numbers. alix: to dani's point, the dollar moving higher in you are fading the rally in the bond or get. thank you very much. we are joined by timothy fiore. what is going on in the numbers? missy: we are in the -- timothy: we are in the trough. i look at the output and input, the real story was on the output side. production was stable at 50. avenues were stable for the month, down from the month of may. june and july had a bit of a recovery. they seem to be slowly crawling back on the demand side. inventories were

alix: the fireworks will come from mike mckee because he asks the best questions, and 93% of the timech after all quote the answer to his question. i think last time it was on the taylor swift economy. it's usually you. do you know your question yet? mike: my kind of question, underlying question to jay powell about this is given all of the known unknowns out there like oil prices, the government shuts down, what the uaw strike, how much confidence do they have in whatever they are forecasting today because a lot could change in a very short period of time. i think that would be a key question for them. yesterday there was an 85% chance they would raise rates and other futures markets show less than a 50% chance. guy: are you really asking the fed chair if he knows what he's doing? mike: sure why not. it's not a question if he knows what he's doing but how does he know what he's doing if things can change so much. we'll get a market reaction this afternoon. a certain amount is priced in. releasing the dot plot about what their future plans are or what they are thinking for right now b

michael mckee is there to break down that for us. >> i don't have anything on your budget but do i have new home sales coming in at a different disappointing drop, 8.7% for the month of august. that follows a 4.4% increase in the month of july. so this is not good news for the home front. conference board, we see kind of interesting number here. we see that overall, consumer confidence drops to 103.0 from 106.1. but the present situation index increases to 147.1 from 144.8. while the future expectations goes to 73.70 from 80.2. so people are more confident right now than they are about the future which is kind of interesting given everything that's going on. you would have expected maybe that would be different with all of the potential bad things that could happen. and looks like at this point, we're not seeing a terrible view of what the situation is. michael: let's get more reaction from dana peterson, chief economist & center leader of economy, strategy & finance at the conference board. dana, help us make sense of this apparent contradiction or the optimism now with that concern wh

matt: bloomberg economics and policy editor michael mckee tend -- conducted that interview this morning and he joins us now from d.c.. what does it look like to jim bullard and the fed? are they nearing a soft landing here and being cautious to keep it that way? mike: certainly, the fed sees a soft landing. they can't put into so many words because they don't want to have to eat those words if something goes wrong. the forecast they gave us for growth over the next two years and lower unemployment rate certainly suggests they think a soft landing is the most likely thing. jim bullard was one of the most hawkish fed members in his latter years at the fed. he left just before the july meeting. at the june meeting, where they put together a dot plot, he suggested rates needed to go to 6.25%. he said maybe they don't need to go that i now but he sees the possibility of accelerating inflation given the fact that the economy is performing so strongly right now. matt: is the economy as strong as it looks? we got great data on the labor market but we've had a number of people come on suggesting

mike mckee will be having a great conversation with bridgeman fed president tom barkan at 3:30 p.m.of view. fed chair jay powell hosting a town hall with educators a little later on. after the belleville results -- belt veil resorts and nike. alix: simone foxman is watching the numbers. what were looking for? a lot of things to pull apart here. what will be the main stand out? simone: we do expect them to say nike that way. we are looking for growth in the u.s. in terms of sales to actually turn into negative territory just slightly. single-digit growth in india. aipac, latin america segments. generally the only place we will see really strong growth or are expecting to see that is in china. the question is how strong is the growth? the whisper number is something i 15% 16% year on year at same source sales growth in terms of currencies. do we see that given the pain in the chinese economy now? guy: simone, how useful of a guide is what we will get from nike. how useful guide is it for the rest of the retail sector? simone: what we have heard from many retailers-related version, rig

rishaad: richmond fed president speaking exclusively with our very on mike mckee.g is you have got rice prices with some measures suggesting we have got the imf stat here. that benchmark up 46%. lots of benchmarks for rice. that is hugely expensive. we have an inflationary in singapore of 4%. down from august last year. a whopping seven and a half percent. you have this gripe about going to hawker centers and finding your chicken you love so much is costing you an arm and a leg. haslinda: it is a case of inflation. known for affordable food. we take a look at chicken rice prices, they are up about 25%. it is not just chicken rice. if you are a fan of the chicken on skewers, they are up about 20%. we are talking about food inflation hitting the folks here in the lion city. there are huge number of billionaires. on of the richest countries in the world but 30% of the people in singapore do not earn enough to meet the price increases. we have had the government coming up with subsidies. they announced one yesterday. the question remains. it is going to be a tough ride

paul: that was the richmond fed president, parking -- thomas barkin speaking to mike mckee.s get more on the looming u.s. government shutdown, no sign of a last-minute spending deal in washington. joining us now to discuss more is the chief economist at northern trust. we did hear from thomas barkin. is this shutdown a potential spanner in the works for the fed? what implications for consumption, growth, and possibly deflation as well carl: ? good morning. it is not the finest hour in washington, d.c.. unfortunately government shutdowns are in with which we have had quite expense of the last few decades. fortunately knowing what to expect helps markets and others prepare for what might be ahead, but i think it is fair to say that this year's variation could produce some prizes given the level of acrimony we are seeing every day coming out of the congress, within caucuses and across caucuses. the consensus seems to be there will be a shutdown. there is so much work to do between now and saturday night, and it is inconceivable we will have a full budget. typically what happens

confirmation of another sighting of danelo cavalcante, this comes from a pennsylvania state trooper james mckee. he could not provide additional details but we also know that the pennsylvania state police have issued reverse 911 calls to ople in the general area where he ibelieved to have ditched a n on saturday night. here are the contents of the verse 911 call that the pennsylvania state police to local residentsn nday evening. "the pennsylnia state police are receiving reports of escaped convict danelo cavalcante in the area of ridge road, coventryville road and daisy point road in soh cove township he possibly armed with a weapon. residents are asked toock all external doo and window, secure vehicles and remain indoors. police review surveillance cameras and contact police if you see anything suspicious. if you see the individual, do not approach him, call 911 immediately." that is the contents of the reverse 911 calls being issued. what is significant is that the pennsylvania state police for the first time are saying that danelo cavalcante is possibly armed with a weapon. up until now, th

page 20, when he is talking with david bossie, apparently out david bossy, apparently a republican mckeemike. he starts placing calls saying that he has been looking into the election and finding interference. he winds up on the phone with differently boss or clark the guy that trump wanted macon to the attorney general and discuss the november presidential election. a 63 minute phone call. after which he then as part of the attempt to breach coffee county voting systems and take the drive so that they can somehow prove that it was election interference, he potentially could implicate a bunch of other people if he testifies truthfully, including the kraken lady. how significant is this? >> very, very. sidney paul's attorneys, i'm assuming you're a bit nervous this evening, we know from the plea hearing he gave a recorded statement prior to his entry of the plea. we don't know what he said in that recorded statement but we know at the end of it he was given first offender misdemeanors. significantly, one of the things that they highlighted was that this was not a crime of moral trumpeted

let's member one thing hunter biden illegally received -- mckee tried to receive a deal to make thisaway. but hunter biden also lived in the vice president guest house when his vice president. he continues to travel with the president go to state visits. hunter biden is far too close to the president considering his criminal activities and the fact he is a very troubled young man but not so young man. he is a very troubled individual. we do not want to go after him as a troubled individual. whether or not money is flowing from countries like russia, like china to the benefit of joe biden's family. quest california republican duro darrell issa congressman thank you. >> think a job progress go for e for new community in mourning. a 30-year-old sheriff's deputy was shot and killed in a targeted ambush. law enforcement honored the deputy with the procession overnight. officers are searching for the government behind the attack. christina coleman is live in los angeles with the latest on that case. >> candlelight vigil will be held tonight of at the palmdale shersheriff station in honor o

i don't want peter navarro to see mckee is some martyr for doing this when he could have avoided all of this, honestly. it is interesting and we will have to see how it plays out. >> many people went in in advance, they either told them why they would not be talking or pled the fifth multiple times. what was the logic there? >> some combination of arrogance and stupidity. i honestly don't see how he could have done it indisposition. there were so many easy ways to avoid this outcome, and he seems to have blown right past them. >> he is not the first person to step on a rake in washington, d.c.. thank you both so much. >>> the manhunt we have been covering for, what, 80 days now? it's heating up for the escaped murderer, danilo, tonto. tonight, law enforcement is confirming they saw him again. we will go live to pennsylvania, next. when you find your reason to go on, let it pull you past the doubt. past the pain, and past your limits. no matter what, we go on. biofreeze ♪somber music♪ price, place and...anyone? living with sickle cell disease...it's torture. john, let's have you share

i interviewed angel raiche and another woman kathy mckee, two women that left an imprint on me in a way that i couldn't imagined. angel, in talking to her about the struggles with her health care and just getting to understand how much she had gone through. and then cathy, coming from herself to become a star and both of their are recounted in the book. but think just talking to them in a press meeting, the struggles really gave me a sense of how to write that chapter in a way that could convey what they were feeling, as well as what was on in the court system. so before we dig into a few of the cases, let's talk a little bit about originalism. i think most know justice thomas and i suspect that most americans don't really know what originalism is, how how about we start out with a broad question. can you just define it for us. yeah. the way i defined it in the book and i think it's easiest to define and then we can get into the details is if you like is originalists that the american people not nine unelected judges are the source of the law that governs through the constitution and st

at the practice of the faith in wartime's, church by church, but we would have to consider if the mckee is right, and i think he is, that the story of american involvement is the story of woodrow wilson that we would have to play tearful. everybody mentions it, but very. you look at the nuances, and you know that i get historians say that he was a presbyterian. that's all you need to know. of course he thinks this way. you read quite a bit from president wilson and you know how religious explicitly christian or more vaguely spiritual themes, languages are woven through all of the speeches. i will give you some examples of things that we have not read the semester. but his own faith, yes, it is true that he was raised by a presbyterian minister father. that was in the south, in virginia, and north carolina, and south carolina, and georgia. that is true, he was an ordained elder in the big mainline presbyterian church. that is all true. let's go a step further. he was part of the very liberal , through the victorian sentimental liberal theology of the day. and, in our next class we will l

fires that are burning right john, i think the big question right now is how long is it going to be mckeeey out there? you know, it depends on where you're at. as yesterday we saw a drifting in first for some spots. >> and then into the rest of the bay area today, those areas that clear out first are the same areas that got bad first, which is areas closer to the coastline. this is your view at the embarcadero where it is muggy. it is gross. it is that haze making its wear down our direction result of wildfire smoke. so yesterday we initially saw the worst of smoke through the golden gate made its way into the rest of the bay area. right now, it's really clumped up in the south bay and along the east bay hills, especially these areas right here, have some of the very worst of air quality. you're seeing some slight improvements in areas like the north bay. that's not to say they're going to be this way all day long, but we are going to start to see a cool sea breeze that is going to help things out towards the coast for staff. now, we will still see some pockets of haze likely making its w

tom: are they having the three-month annualized thing that mike mckee mentioned? is in place and america. can christine lagarde say that disinflation is in place in europe? i'm not sure when i look at brent, $90. jonathan: president biden confirming his meeting with the chinese premier at the g summit over the weekend, marking the highest level meeting between the u.s. and china in 10 months. also leaders backing plans for new trade between the u.s., the middle east, and india. tom: it was a g 18, some were saying in just. the part of diplomacy, you have to show up. the president showed up. given all the different challenges that are out there. i sort of think it was off of the radar. some saying it was a bigger deal than i thought, but i could be wrong. tom: we will not be talking about it tomorrow, is what you are saying. softbank, $47 to $51 per share. there is another ipo in the mix for this week. instacart sending us price range, $26 to $28 per share, looking for the nasdaq ticker cart. lisa: the valuation that is being talked about out there is substantially

be excited out there. >> michael mckee on sabbatical if we get a shut down. of power this evening to give you an update on what's going on in washington. lisa, quickly -- a little bit of market movement. i don't know what to make of it. lisa: you saw two year yields inflect upward but this will not make or break the bank. the idea that the headline number came in better than expected, another better-than-expected data print, keeps people on edge that that's the economic surprise, continuing to the upside, rather than the deterioration continuing and deepening. tom: brent crude $95.36, buttressed up against $96 an hour ago. we will sum all that together and we can do that with stephen, chief u.s. economist at a firm. let's go to third-quarter gdp. the answer is you are more optimistic than many. state the optimism. steven: the reality is the consumer began the quarter on a very strong note and we have seen it tail off as the quarter goes on, but considering quarterly average data, raising the early part of the quarter at the end of the previous, sets a higher

joe mckee, dipaolo go to gut.rd gutfeld dot com.also be in stamford, connecticut, november 5th. albany , new york, december 3rd. buy t >> and my books available by that dang thing you're working on your birthday. >> well that's not really my birthdarthday?reg: guty. >> d all right. it's time for a brand new segment that i like to calgl ooh, fabulous fashion finds. okayfashio. so princess diana's legendary black sheep sweater is nowegend1 for auction. in 81, she sported this sweater while a polo match with prince charles, her then fiancee, during the event she she accidentally tore this sweater. buckingham palace, oute br about the possibility of repairing it and the brand instead opted to send her a brand new one. astonishinglastonishthe origy or remained hidden away in an attic fo andr four decades. and now it's for sale. martha wow. m so check out the fall of the house of murdoch. >> it is available on fox nation. here's a quick soundbite. . no one told me. lik >> do you ever worry? you know, am i like dad? >> no, i do not worry,

>> reporter: michael mckee from bloom with berg television and radio. in june you forecast a 5.6% year-enmedian fed funds rate, and since then you've more than doubled your growth forecast, you lower ed your unemployment forecast significantly, so what would justify that last move? because the the median forecast is for lower inflation. and given all the known unknowns that you face, how much confidence do you have, can investors have or the american people is have in your forecasts? >> well, foe casts are highly un-- forecasts are highly uncertain. forecasting is very difficult. forecasters are a humble lot with much to be humble about. but to get to your question though, what's happened is growth has come many stronger, right? stronger than expected. and that's required higher rates. unemployment, you know, you also see that the ultimate unemployment rate is not as high, but that's really because of what we've been seeing in the labor market. we've seen more and more progress in the labor market without seeing significantly higher unemployment. so we'

we will give you michael mckee's treatment at 8:30.move. that is underlying churn between nominal and real analysis. jonathan: the difference between core and headline in the data itself. core, we are making progress. headline, do we have a problem? the bti at $89.50. lisa: does headline matter? if you see a pop up in response to higher oil prices, do we care? does the fed care? jp morgan says the fed will game out oil prices in response. it is how they are increasing. is increasing in a way that reduces consumer spending? do you see that show up in the numbers? tom: jon is looking at wetland of noris does when he goes to singapore. we are up above two standard deviations above five dollars a gallon gas. $3.84. now is when the tension starts. jonathan: i was doing one thing. tom was doing the other. i was reading this moments ago. the fed is likely to skip hiking this month but stronger core inflation could convince the fed to leave the 23 median dot in november. we have to work out with this oil story does to demand. it is so importan

mike mckee will break that down. equity futures on the s&p higher and almost by 0.1%.is points, the 10 year 4.33. >> it looks like another good report for housing starts, down 11.3%. i am being sarcastic. how much of that is weather and how much of that is a drop off in homebuilders' outlooks towards the industry will be interesting to ask because we did see the national association of homebuilders report lower traffic among customers endocrine in their optimism index earlier this week. building permits were up 6.9%. perhaps it was a weather related thing and perhaps it was a slump because it looks like they're interested in getting business out there. let me see the press relief -- release, i don't know if there is a reaction to this from the fed. if you have something, let me know. jon: it is interesting regardless. yields up by three basis points on the 10 year. 4.3396. to check in on foreign exchange, the euro 1.07. we were around 1.06. the last data point, setting us up for the federal reserve tomorrow afternoon with the forecast we are expecting from chairman pow

michael mckee, thank you.ng up with her at jackson hole. the chief economist at adp with a real insight into just how much ammunition firepower a lot of consumers have. throughout the morning, jonathan and i were talking about this income increase we are seeing across the board. i'm wondering, how much is that going to fuel the next wave of consumer spending in a way that maybe is not being fully appreciated? >> good morning, good to see you. real wages going up is a great thing for workers. but it is important to provide context. the thing about inflation, i know this sounds very obvious, is that prices generally go up, but when it comes to core inflation, they don't come back down. we are still looking at the higher prices from the consumer perspective. and where you have seen the wage growth is predominantly low-paid jobs. so that is about $5,000 over the course of a year and a half of double digit wage growth for the sector. $5,000 after-tax, it doesn't by a lot of oil, higher rent prices and medical care.