sonali: michael mckee, we thank you. jim milstein is a cochairman and joins us to talk more about what we hear about the fiscal picture in washington. even though we have heard so much from the fed already in of gotten past the worst of it for now, the reality is, the canned was just kicked down the road with 45 days or so of securities. with this looming over our heads, how much concern do you have in terms of volatility moving forward? >> i don't think it's over in washington by any means. one caucus of the republicans led by matt gaetz said they will move to vacate the chair which is to replace speaker mccarthy or cut a deal -- for having cut a deal with the democrats. it was to avoid a shut down and they garnered 139 republican votes in all of -- and almost all but one democrat. it seems as though there is a small but vocal chorus in the republican caucus that is unhappy with the speaker. they moved to vacate the chair. under the house rules, until that motion is decided, nothing else happens. you need a speaker to r

michael mckee with one more insight.that people are still looking for workers. when you have a number like this, how much of a drop off are you going to get month? are we going to keep this thing going? some of this may be payback for numbers that were odd last time, like yellow trucking business. there is a seasonal adjustment issue, folks in education. it is a very strong number. the interesting thing i take away from this is that the 10 year note yield headed to -- does this mean the number pushes wall street to reprice for yet another fed move or is this the fed move? you go back to mary daly yesterday saying the market yields rising have the equivalent effect of another 25 basis point increase. does this mean the fed has to move? a lot of that comes down to next week, the cpi numbers that we get. if the inflation rate is still going down and we did not see a big wage increase here, that it is okay to have this kind of job growth. lisa: the bond market is speaking and doing work in terms of tightening conditions. i a

we will be going to mike mckee on data.because i don't think enough has been said about how wrong tom keene was/ claims in six minutes. it is not the jobs report. i was lectured on this earlier. this was maybe the most botched gdp call i have ever done. mike mckee will set a straight. lisa: no one expected a reacceleration. this has to do with the labor market, the fact that you have seen strength, unemployment claims coming in below 200,000 for several weeks, and now we are expecting 207,000. all of this goes to the question, is this consistent with getting inflation back to 2% in the u.s.? we just heard higher for longer from christine lagarde. is it going to work in the u.s. at the level that we currently have? katie: when you look at what we are expecting out of gdp in six minutes, that resurgence is expected be driven by the u.s. consumer. u.s. consumers are still spending out there. marry that together with what the labor picture looks like, people have jobs, people are spending. lisa: this is different from europe. d

let's get over to policy editor mike mckee from washington, d.c. you watched this speech. what are you take from jerome powell comments? mike: he aligned himself with the open market committee and leaves the impression the fed is going to be on hold on november 1. i don't know how far you can take that out from there. it did not sound like he's in a hurry to raise interest rates. he did move the markets a lot, particularly at the long end. watching the yield curve during his speech and it significantly widened out and then came back in a little bit. he originally said he did not think rates were too tight. the market took that as we might see him raise rates more. then he came back and said later the yield rise could mean the fed has to do less, which is what we have heard from a lot of other fed officials. in terms of monetary policy it looks like the fed is where the market thinks they would be. we see that reflected in futures. the futures guess for november 1 is down to 3% chance of the fed raising rates. it was not significantly higher but it has dropped since powell

mike mckee and ira jersey joining us now. what brings yields back down?ra: i agree maybe it is the stock market but why does the stock market go down? you have to ask yourself that as well. you have to ask yourself -- the economy is slower than the market is thinking right now. what drove this higher is mostly because of better economic data and people pricing out the risk of recession in the near term. and when that comes back into play, if we start to see significantly slower data bond yields will rally back to the range that they were. 4% or 4.25% at least for a while. but we have to see that turn definitively at this point. alix: stock crash and possible slowdown. what you have to say, mike? mike: i will go behind door number three. the slowdown in the economy. ira is right, that seems to be what is driving a lot of this although there is perhaps a little bit of concern about how much debt the united states is taking on and who will buy all of it. all of it holds together. but this is an interesting situation because a lot of people are saying this co

mike mckee is standing by.heir meeting the minutes show fed officials felt that interest rates were now restrictive and "broadly restraining the economy is intended." caution would be warranted i

michael mckee leading our coverage. this is bloomberg surveillance.rganizational financial health and you're trying to do that through multiple systems, that makes it very, very cumbersome. ♪ it's not just tech, it's not just people. it's how they work together to provide that experience to the customer. as a finance organization that is what you want to do. ♪ you want to be able to provide your child as a with the tools orion that resources they need.do. with reliable internet at home, through the internet essentials program, the world opened up. fellas, fellas. that's how my son was able to find the hidden genius project. we wanted to give y'all the necessary skills to compete with the future. kevin's now part of this next generation of young people who feel they can thrive. ♪ ♪ you want to be able to provide your child with the tools or resources they need. with reliable internet at home, through the internet essentials program, the world opened up. fellas, fellas. that's how my son was able to find the hidden genius project. we wanted to give y'al

michael mckee here alongside myself as well as annmarie hordern.e a sense of what the underlying trends are that could indicate whether this disinflation is transitory? michael: the underlying trend is good on the super core that jay mentioned. we have it up just a seven basis points during the month of september. that suggests we are still seeing progress coming down although we did see shelter costs going up a little bit. you take that out and service prices are definitely dis-inflated on a three month basis. we are looking at progress underneath everything else at this point. that in itself is good news. interesting to see what happens with shelter because the expectation had been it would start to decline and we seen house prices go up since there is no inventory on the market. that may be putting pressure in the other direction. lisa: i did see a story about how new york rents are starting to soften, they are actually coming down. any hope they will go to an affordable price dampened. annmarie: i did not see this but it is contrary to what peo

. >> an i'm so disappointed gillian mckee, a longtime pleasanton resident, says she has relied on her neighborhood rite aid for 28 years, while rite aid says they plan to close some under performing stores. >> they haven't announced which ones. mckee is hoping hers off of hopyard road won't be on the chopping block. >> i would be very sad to see this one go. as you saw, i'm about to head off drive ing somewhere and this is my stop point to get a few things before i go, you know, because it's so handy. i just live two miles that way. >> last month, the wall street journal reported that the company was proposing to close roughly 400 to 500 stores in bankruptcy as part of the bankruptcy process. the company says it would accelerate the pace of store closures and sell off some of its businesses, including prescription benefit provider. a elixir solutions. in a statement, rite aid said the company is making every effort to ensure customers of impacted stores have access to health services, whether at another rite aid or a nearby pharmacy, and will work to transfer prescriptions accordingly

tom: all the stuff michael mckee talks about, he will be with us.hairman like. jonathan: hiring for longer is not a given. given the bank drop, talk about the context. those con -- commas are coming when you have a bond market selling author aggressively you have a real concern that this is not just about the federal reserve, not just about economic data, not just about japan or china and the difficulties they have got but also about the dysfunction in washington and the budget deficit and the inability to get a hold of it. tom: and within the financial valet, it is about yields. we have tried to give you the price analysis. lisa abramowicz is the expert. what is the price analysis of the two movable parts of the spread this morning? lisa: price down, yield up. you see that with credit spread as well. when you have the risky aspect of the company go up, you see credit spreads go up. right now, people are looking and saying, if borrowing costs go up this quickly, you have a fundamental concern about what kind of price you will pay to refinance. if ra

solution is tanisha something people like these just keen for what's on that backend store is some ivy mckee will spell. it goes way in the formation of the sub gimme out of the floor base that you, that you only a couple of single muta, privately squared lights. most dynamical grains great, are made up because of the 0 this the sure get through. i know the was a disk usage of the products of the actual definitely given to that by nat geo and not that yet. so i'm going.

i solution is tanisha something people like features keen thoughts on that back here. 30 some ivy. mckee will spell, it goes way in the formation of the sub gimme out of door base which and they only a couple of single muta, privately squared lights. most dynamical cranes, great army replicas, 000. this the issue here to right, know the very low of biscuits against new products of the given. you've never seen that joe. not that yet. so i thought, as i bought the with blonde the, you'll be doing the retired us marine connell and former virginia state senator richard black as the 1st time the experience of law at 19 he invested in the marine corps when the vietnam war broke couch chief volunteer to go to the front as a helicopter pilots. in vietnam, i flew 269 combat missions. the party was very, very active at the time and my helicopter was hit my ground fire and 4 times and was machine gun fire caught the the flight controls and we crash landed when an air traffic controller was needed to guide closed support at the front, richard black volunteered again. for 3 months, i dropped the high

some of a mckee will spell out goes way in the formation of the subcommittee out of the floor base that you, that you make of substitute one meter privately squared lights. most dynamical grains, great army, because zillow was, is this the sure get paid through? i know the best, but it's a gym and hundreds of national definitely given that by nat geo and not to just explore that. i bought that with blonde that you'll be doing the retard us marine connell and former virginia state senate. so richard black as 1st hand experience of law at 19 he interested in the marine corps, when the vietnam war broke couch chief volunteer to go to the front as a helicopter pilots. in vietnam, i flew 269 combat and missions. the fighting was very, very active at the time and my helicopter was hit my ground fire and 4 times and was to machine gun fire caught the the flight controls and we crash landed when an air traffic controller was needed to guide close and support at the front richard black volunteered again. for 3 months, i dropped the highest percentage of bombs dropped by end of year controller in

dictator rebuffed the request for a declaration in support of the arabs you know why question mccue view mckeeogs. it did not matter he wanted to use them. telling him time was not right offered hitler his thanks for the sympathy which he had always shown for the arab especially palestinian cause into which he had given clear expression in his public speeches. the arabs were germany's natural friends because they had the same enemies as head germany, mainland the jews. that's the mufti speaking. i hitler replied to send f san r countermeasure war against the jews included active opposition to the jewish national valve and pals that would furnish a positive practical aid to the arabs involved in the same struggle for germany and subjectsubjectedsolely destructh element residing in the arabs of fear that our the mufti would be the most authoritative spokesman for the arab world and thank hitler profusely to german historians that hitler had a plan to expend the half holocaust of the middle east to forge an alliance with arab nationanationalist for this is s why hitler met with the mufti provide

will look to mike mckee for important data later this week tom:.tant data later this week. john kirby is on tours of duty with the navy. he has real-world experience that when the facts change, admiral kirby changes. thank you for joining us this morning. in your briefings with the president this morning, what will be your message at 1:00 p.m.? >> the most important message the president will deliver is about the united states' long-standing support of israel, the people of israel. our sympathies are with the loss and shock they are going through but our firm resolve to make sure that they can continue to defend themselves against these terrorist attacks and take action against hamas direct way. people talk about the military assistance we are providing and that we have to a expect we will pay going forward. the fear it is engendering in the minds across the region and here in the united states -- lastly, it is a strong message for a marriage can see her at home that anti-semitism has no place. neither does terrorism. the united states federal gove

some of a mckee will spell, it goes way in the formation of the subcommittee out the door basically. and they only a couple of single muta, a private display of lights, most dynamic, lagrange great army, is up because zillow is, is this the sure? the blue i know the best, but it's a different color except the given internet by not showing off it yet. so i thought that i bought the blind that you'll be doing the retard us marine connell and for.

some of a mckee will spell, it goes way in the formation of the subcommittee out of the floor base, which in that you'll make of substitute one meter private display of lights most dynamic lagrange great army because 000. that's the issue. give you through. i know the levels of biscuits and you have heard of best buy, definitely give anything that by nat geo and not to just explore that. i bought the blonde that you'll be doing the retard us marine connell, the informa virginia state senator richard black as 1st hand experience of law. at 19 he interested in the marine corps when the vietnam war broke couch chief volunteer to go to the front as a helicopter pilots. in vietnam, i flew 269 combat nations. the party was very, very active at the time and my helicopter was hit my ground fire and 4 times and once to machine gun fire cuts the the flight controls and we crash landed when an air traffic controller was needed to guide close and support at the front richard black volunteered again. for 3 months, i dropped the highest tonnage of bombs, dropped by any air controller in the 1st marine

guy: mike mckee. alix: maybe. guy: great question. final numbers. euro stocks done.aking it on the chin. the dax under pressure. the ftse 100 down .9%. the chip sector, intel surging the most, after predicting a return to sales growth. the market is turning around. growing momentum for the chip giants turnaround efforts. details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪ ♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. (adventurous music) ♪ ♪ ♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh guy: coming up, alicia levine at 2:00. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: intel is having a good day. the share price up 8.4%. solid performance in a difficult market today. the pc market is recovering. good news. that's a big part of the business. elsewhere, things may be different. ed ludlow joins. you are going to be

someone forecasting fourth-quarter growth at 4.9%, which i thought was amazingly high until michael mckeehe atlanta fed forecast for the court -- the current quarter is 5.4%. with this kind of growth in the retail numbers we saw, every data point we seem to see goes against the fed's mission in a way. are they going to be able to get inflation down to 2%? subadra: inflation has been coming off quite steadily. the pace of moderation has actually been going to wear the fed has wanted. in some respects, this feels like a very goldilocks environment where growth is surprising to the upside and inflation seems to be coming down ever so gradually. the strength in the third quarter definitely has a lot of us by surprise. is it because of the summer splurge? perhaps the taylor swift impact on the economy. for the most part, we are expecting the economy to slow down in the fourth quarter. things like student loan repayments and the consumer perhaps retrenching in the fourth quarter might turn out to be very different than what we saw in the third quarter. our expectation is that from here on out i

thanks about how dangerous this is one of my data as a republican and he's a trump odor question mckee'sot does that mean i can't have a job at levi's at the world who want to live in? when did you know when the conservative republicans who voted for donald trump at levi? >> no. not part of the company culture? >> i will tell you the headquarters are in san francisco. the acute review a burning or biden? that wasas acceptable there areo republicans we had an office in texas for distribution i'm certain there's lots of folks in those locales it did vote republican or trump i also other didn't feel comfortable saying that are made that known to the friends and colleagues. sue went back to levi's unbuttoned yet as i write this still puzzling over where i think the line should be drawn. when is it appropriate for corporations to move beyond protecting employees to taking overtly political stands beyond the walls of the company? still, wherever that line is it's pretty clear when we along with just about every large corporation and america crossed it. quick summer of 2020 piglets when we talk

lisa: michael mckee, thank you so much.gh what the potential biggest deal announced globally means for the permian basin as well as oil goebelly. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> what we know is that financial market conditions have certainly tightened. that's not even a question. i think the important to note there is that allows us a little bit of patience that we can continue to watch as economic conditions and financial conditions continue to evolve. lisa: that was michelle bowman speaking at a panel at the world economic forum -- excuse me at the imf at world bank meetings. our own colleague of course, tom keene is heading that way. and we will be catching up with him soon. we've been talking about a whole host of issues of course, the conflict in israel as well as the economic data that just came out in terms of inflation and how much it's coming in. maybe not as fast as people would like. you can see that playing out in the markets. although not really that significant move given the fact that we got an upsize surprise to inf

matt: mike mckee who covers all things fed. one possibility as to why yields has bike so much higher in recent weeks is the market finally leaves the fed's narrative that they are going to go higher and hold for longer. would you take from lisa's interview with mary daly? mike: mary daly think it is a good possibility, not the only reason out there people are thinking yields spiked up, but the fact that they have does the fed's job for it. if the rates they about where they are, the fed would not have to do that last rate hike, they put in the dot plot for 2023. matt: what are we expect om the fed. with a whole stud at these levels? we'verd similar to what daly was saying from others in terms of passive tightening, as long as inflation continues to come down, the real yield is higher? mike: that is what it looks like for right now and that is the anticipation we have to see if inflation comes down, daly speaking cautiously saying it is going to be a slow process, it is going to take a while to get to 2% and the fed is committed

i know that many -- coming down there with our b homes, bishop rudy mckee.en at the center of a lawsuit the restricts academic freedom, violating the first and 14th amendment. florida is just one of several states that have introduced or passed laws restricting how the divisive topics like race are taught in public schools. i bring it up because i understand that your group fif, faith in florida. has been contacted in other states that are not part of the black church community, on guidance for how to circumvent these restrictions. what are you hearing from them when they reach out? >> we're hearing several things. number, one we have white churches in the state of florida that have agreed to teach black history. they might not be able to teach it in a way that the black church can, but they can teach it in a way of accountability. they've joined as well, over 20 other states throughout our country that have also agreed, they are keeping their eyes on florida, watching what is being done. preferably, it will not hit their state, but nevertheless they know th

alix: alix: michael mckee is going to be looking at some of these headlines. >> the fed chairman has

mike mckee and liz mccormick joins us, how far away is 2%? liz: i am not avoiding this question, but i would say that powell says they do not know either. i think the dot says 2025. with this data there is a core of people saying that the next leg down will be tough. we might stay at 3% or 4% but this just embolden the case that they are talking about longer rates helping them you cannot write off that the fed does not have to do more to gin up the church rectory downwards -- the trajectory downwards. i do not anyone thinks that this mike: will happen next year. i do not need to say anything, liz said it all. the fed does not think we will get to 2% on pes -- on pce until 2026. they are not anticipating a smooth lie down either. the numbers were disappointed -- disappointing, so the 2% handle that we had on a shorter-term trajectory has gone away. and that has to concern the fed, but not enough yet. that will be a key question. it will be a closer decision when we get to november 1 and the markets are pricing. they probably do not do it but l

mike mckee is here to do exactly that. mike: this was not what the markets were expecting and probably not what the fed were expecting or wanted to see. we've gone up in terms of job openings by 690,000 to over nine million again. that is a significant increase for the jolts report, job openings and labor turnover. hirings, the number of people getting hired, changed little, still at about 5.9 million. and the quit rate doesn't change at all, 3.6 million, pretty much the same as the prior month, and that leaves the quit rate unchanged at 2.3%. it looks like at this point employers are still looking for employees. the labor market doesn't seem to be getting any looser. alix: as guy pointed out, you have the selloff and also the yen weakens to 150 per dollar for the first time since october of 2022678 the 10-year over in canada is up 22 basis points. might be a canada thing, but nonetheless, we are seeing chunky moves. really appreciate it. we want to take you to the greenwich economic forum in a kicked off today. david west

mike mckee joins us and anita nichola joins us from new york. what landing?> we have a good chance of a soft landing, and data is changing things for the fed. if we look at higher for longer and the prints today, we can see what is priced into the swaps today. it's a really big difference. also, the other side of this is financial conditions. they have been moving at a very fast pace and numerous fed officials have been talking that this has been doing the fed's job. stocks and bonds have been selling off, and at goldman sachs, it was the tightest in a year. that adds another piece to the pie and even though today their reaction is very negative, some of it, is coming down. there are a lot of catalysts that can help us with funding. alix: you heard mary daly talk about that yesterday. mike, if this was my only question, my question would be dude, where is my landing? so where is my landing? guy: that is why we don't know how to set up the question. [laughter] michael: after the show, when we can speak and not get the fcc involved, i will tell you what my ques

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let's bring in international economics and policy corresponded mike mckee in washington, d.c.ica clark. i want to start on the gdp number. what has driven us to this? of all the government spending, i think of the fiscal stimulus. i thought that was gone. savings rates have come back down but the consumer continues to power the economy. mike: absolutely, at least through the third quarter. you can bet janet yellen will make this one of her talking points today. it's a great opportunity for the biden administration to claim that bidenomics is working. we don't get a lot of clues to that in today's numbers. consumer spending, 4%. that is a huge number. it is unlikely to continue. how far does a drop off? the pessimists say will have a recession because consumers are out of money. they just do keep spending. morbid based on wages than any kind of savings at this point. business spending fell off a cliff. what is it about business spending? why do businesses all of a sudden quit? will they come back? a lot of questions come out of this. more questions probably than answers. we wil

alix: alix: michael mckee is going to be looking at some of these headlines. >> the fed chairman has just released the text of these remarks. nothing new, but shades of emphasis that may send a message to the markets. the committee repeats is proceeding carefully right now, watching the data to make decisions, but he does adopt some of the argument that those with the committee have suggested a pause in november have made recently saying a long-term bond yields are a significant factor in significantly tightening financial conditions. those financial conditions are helping to slow the economy. they will keep an ion whether the real rates continue to slow growth before they make a decision. he does note that growth has been stronger and the committee is aware of the fact that it has been stronger than anybody had expected, and he said that is historically unusual, but many indicators according to the chairman suggesting the labor market is beginning to gradually cool, wage growth is gradually declining to sustainable levels, and he does suggest that there are some factors out there th

tom: mike mckee will dive into pages of data. no other way to put it.the front end is what is moving, the idea that the fed maybe needs to do more. tom: we will get back to the markets in a moment. but you have got 60 days of lift. mike: really strong lift. august number revised up. a lot of strength in retail sales over the last two months. in september, what we are seeing is a gain in motor vehicle sales of 1%, which is interesting. they calculate this differently than the seasonally adjusted sales number for auto sales where they count units. this is dollar value. electronics down .8%, big loser, along with clothing and accessories. the big gain on the month -- gasoline is up .9, but that is the big gain on the month. not store retailers and miscellaneous store real tailors. we are getting some amazon, walmart business down there. food service and drinking places, tom keene keeps the economy going, up .9%. lisa: we are seeing yields going higher earlier. on the 10 year yield, we were up six basis points, now 8, a normal move over the past couple of w

mckee will discuss that but clearly everyone claiming the focus on claims. be thumbs down, because the numbers don't move. 207,000 jobless claims filed last week. this is not what we were expecting. without the autoworkers might start to show up in these numbers. 204,000 was the initially reported number in the prior week. the continuing claims numbers are lower, at least compared with the previous issue, 1,664,000 compared to 1,670,000. so it's interesting to see that what we are getting here is a still tight labor market even that we have people on strike who make others eligible for jobless claims. we thought they would go up and that did not really happen. trade balance comes in lower than it had been expected to be and lower than the previous month, down from a higher number, and that will be something that contributes to third-quarter growth as well. these are august numbers. so the revisions are in for jobless claims, only up 1000 last week to 205, so 207 is hardly any change at all, and it looks at this point that the labor market is not getting a br

when joe mckee, boring an injury time. oh to hans 1st a to one when i was there. so how malick has been speaking to scotland, football, legend and bn, sports presenter abbey gray, who thinks the era could have massive implication? there's no open today. the 20 if you sorry for little to say here, but i, i can't honest receive it yesterday i did feel a little sorry for them. i think it's one of the proudest decisions i've ever seen since the document to operation and they weren't big legit. that's absolutely negligent, and the duty of looking after the decision that was what was told. so here is that all the site is not subjective. it's a fact you'd either all say or you know, offsite. so it's a flat so it should be dealt with. it should be cleared up, and this was one of the easiest ones ever when richard and dye were watching the studio, even without cringing our range on it and run it through our computers at bn sports . we could see, yep, just the as was on site. what's in the f weather during the bunker that made then right? key was off site. i'm start good by

always a jolting interview, michael mckee joins us. >> you combined the two thoughts.ue baseball, the real season starts tonight. mindy of bloomberg briefed me on the baltimore orioles. a mindy brief is a lecture. we will have more on her majesty, i can't say enough about the excitement of going into the world series. i want you to clean your expertise on what the four were he said yesterday. we have time to act carefully, think about what we do. does it really make much of a difference? i think michael barr doesn't usually talk about monetary policy, but he did yesterday. it's not so much about raising rates once more, it is how long we're going to keep rates high. that is the real question. tom: we talked monetary policy, a parlor game. forget about all that malarkey. michael barr, what is he and his bank supervision doing to study this interest rate move on our basis in? >> he talks to banks all the time obviously and is talking to bank examiners all the time and their message has been very similar since march when we had the banking system, make sure that you are i

michael mckee is with us.nflection point of the economy, whether it has to do with the jobs or central bankers. what is the biggest prize that you think is likely based on what you are hearing? michael: most of the economic data will probably come in as people anticipate. the big question is bond yields. where do they go? so many things could influence them. people are forgetting the bank of japan is meeting tomorrow. there is a 50% chance that they wind up the band for yield curve control. as the 10 year yield continues to rise in japan, that takes money away from the u.s. at a time when the treasury is going to talk about what it needs to borrow. we could see yields rising. that has the follow-on effect in the economy that everybody is talking about. interest rates are doing their job for them. gina: fed meeting this week as well. no shortage along the central-bank meetings. how much is this yield rise going to be part of the discussion? how much is the bond market doing the work of central banks? michael: t

mike mckee, i guess the cost index and consumer number go hand in hand. mark: i would not call it the hot consumer number it was a month ago more so than today. we see the decline, but not a big one. consumers hanging in there but they get this uneasy feeling about where we are going. the headline number comes in at 102 86 after 104.3. that is better than what is forecast but it is not as good as the month prior in september. present situation down from 140 6.2. the expectation falls from 75.6% to 75.4. and the underlying numbers you want to look at is the payrolls numbers. right now jobs are hard to get and it falls 13.1 from 13.2. an jobs does not move much from 39.4 from 39 point seven. this is the way the labor market is going to go and that suggests that the eci is suggesting reality when it shows wages go up a little bit. six months from now, people believe that on them -- employment will be about the same and incomes will not increase. the pattern has been the eci, intel this time, showing slower growth and wages. that is what people seem to expect

so nearby, southbound, 680 at mckee. there's a crash right there.attention. let's talk about 580. we have slow traffic coming in from tracy to livermore. 680 is slowing south through pleasanton in san mateo. bridge is getting busier, but it's not a critical mass just yet. and at the bay bridge, we have a backup that stretches for about 15 minutes. 648. let's talk about today's weather. here's steve. sal how about a breaker? how about, you know what? when i said that in the newsroom, everyone looked at me like i had said something very, very bad. i saw it on i still say twitter. i saw it on twitter. thank you, sal. san rafael, san francisco, livermore and san jose. what about them? they'll be warmer today. it was warm to hot yesterday and i bumped everyone up a little bit here today. 93. san rafael went 90 in the city. livermore only 87 yesterday. 93 today. i'm a little little concerned about that. it may only be about 90 to 91, but we'll go with it. and san jose, which has been hot lately, one of the warmer locations went 92 yesterday. we'll go 94 t

i have signed to pass a bill, one of the schoolteachers mark mckee's bills are being passed trying to take their country back. president biden like to go to the football team the minority of people winning so other kids can get credit for winning the game. we just have to work with the president, they want to take credit running for president. they go over there and they are running city so these people want to take credit for what everybody is doing and people see now. it's like this housing thing. >> i can understand why somebody voters feel their vote doesn't matter if it is disinformation from across the political spectrum thing the vote doesn't matter and there is reason to think about it for this and it didn't happen and it's very understandable but one thing guaranteed if you want your vote not to matter, don't vote and it guaranteed you will. the more people boat, the more likely you will get what you want, no question the system is not working as intended, no question it's broken, saw something one of the other, it goes across the political spectrum but it is really important

right now, look understand mike mckee will go into a great length on housing.ou may want to get a new home. we did see an increase in new homes starts compared with what we had seen the month before. 7% up, lower than anticipated, 7.8%. but better than -11.8% in the month of august. building permits down 4.4%. after 6.9% rise a month before. we see the housing starts number has been revised to -12.5% for august. it is maybe more significant gain than it would definition initially -- would have initially appear. multiple unit of 383,000. it looks like strength in both areas at this point. tom, -- you're not going to get a good mortgage rate but you will get attention from your mortgage banker because earlier today mortgage applications fell to a 28 year low. tom: we have been looking at credit ratings. i'm talking at 285. lisa: i do not think they go that low. fico scores. not seeing much of reaction in markets. you're not seeing a mortgage applications anywhere near come anything we have seen the past three decades. there is a question of whether this is a brok

that was the first in-person meeting have had with mike mckee in america.od morning from new york, this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪ at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. (adventurous music) ♪ ♪ ♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more. plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases. and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas- a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours. >> we are seeing its go up and

there's nothing weak in the analysis of mike mckee, our bloomberg international economics and policyd what we are seeing and we are trying to get a pulse of the american economy that seems resilient. will bca resilient retail report -- will bca resilient -- will we see a resilient retail report tomorrow? michael: we will see a solid retail report, slower than it has been but americans have been spelling -- spending learning -- money. while the headline goes down -4.6 from 1.9, the number of employees go up. the workweek lengthened so there is a mixed picture even though the headline for empire manufacturing, the new york state area, is not great, the underlying detail suggests there is resilience. lisa: as we ask again this morning, why the long end of the yield curve has experienced a spike upward, how much is this due to inflationary pressures -- pressures that might have been underestimated in terms of stickiness. what are you seeing with the amount of savings americans have left over? michael: we keep hearing consumers have spent out most of their pandemic savings except for thos

michael mckee on the economy.mckenzie will join us and wei li from blackrock. ♪ ♪ ♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. (announcer) enough with the calorie counting, be ready for any market with a liquid etf. carb cutting, diet fatigue, and stress. just taking one golo release capsule with three balanced meals a day has been clinically proven to repair metabolism, optimize insulin levels, and balance the hormones that make weight loss easy. release works with your body, not against it, so you can put dieting behind you and go live your life. head to golo.com now to join the over 2 million people who have found the right way to lose weight and get healthier with golo. >> this is a time for humility and multi-asset investing. >>. definitely having a reset to a higher actual return environment. >> this economy has a huge mosaic of factors to what is happening the overall market. >> challenge in the bond market, success in the equity market. tom: good morning. jonathan ferro, lisa abram

tom: possibly fighting the last war, mike mckee, thank you. they deal is 5.10%.s. are we getting near an 8% 30 year mortgage? lisa: we're looking at -- at what point, i keep going back to this, at what point do risk assets fully priced is in or have they because that is one of the biggest debates on wall street. tom: too many people are going where are my kids going to go to school and will the faculty be competent? every once in a while, you go to -- your kid to a school like adversity of virginia and they work with a rock and joining us is michael googling see -- work with a rockstar and joining us is michael -- this is a kid at uva that help larry sabato -- that helped larry sabato to the defendant growth -- do the definitive book on jfk. what was it like helping the acclaimed professor right this 50 year treaties --treatise on jfk? >> it was a great experience, working with the professor. i wasn't around for the kennedy presidency so i got to learn about what it was like and the impact it had on politics, not just at the time but as it resonated on a -- 50 ye

tom: thank you you to michael mckee and claudia.y joins us from advisors capital. bloomberg surveillance. ♪ (sfx: stone wheel ng ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™. >> the are not detecting any clear signs of financial stress. these anomalies are concerning and we actually think that the system can withstand rates to 5.5% and it is how quickly they will get there. lisa: that was the chief global strategist at principal asset management and we are seeing stasis in equities as we see anything but in the bond world. that is one of the big takeaways. the s&p futures are risk off but to me it has been relatively immune to what we are seeing with 10-year yields nearing the highest levels back to 2007. tom: talking about the non-correlations and they are th

there's some on northbound 101 near mckee and that's about it.e not we're just going to leave it alone, as they say right now. it's a good start to this friday morning commute. it's 550. the weather is changing. i can feel it. let's bring steve in. it's also good if you like, cooler weather. so it's on its way here. i know you do. on napa san francisco, livermore and san jose 87, 93 and 93. yesterday we'll drop those big time, especially san francisco. i'm going 66 on the high napa down to 82 livermore to 84. in san jose to 82. and you can drop those another ten degrees at least by the time we get to probably sunday, 530 on most of the temps a couple of 60s but a lot of 50s. we have a combination of low and high clouds. i think the higher clouds will skirt the area and be out of here in the next couple of hours. but that system is approaching and it's opening the door to a cooler pattern, much cooler, especially on saturday and sunday, we'll drop into the upper 60s and low 70s. so low clouds and cooling begins today and high gets bumped out of th