megan greene of manulife will be sticking with us.als on the front line of the u.s.-trade -- u.s.-china trade battle. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: this is bloomberg daybreak. the s&p right around a record level. futures soft as it feels like a summer wednesday. $91 billion in market cap was added to the s&p yesterday. $70 billion of that came from tesla. european stocks a little bit lower. in other asset classes, the dollar-yen is the one to watch, down 2/10 of 1%. moving away from its reflation goal and moving into mitigating any disasters from monetary policy? if yes, it means a stronger yen. down 6/10 ofe is 1%. crude rolling over 1%. we saw the highest yield in three years -- in three-year since 2007. david: let's find out what is going on outside the business world. taylor riggs is here with the "first word news." taylor: a republican candidate backed by president trump holds a narrow lead in a special election for congress. several thousand provisional ballots still have to be counted. the race is seen as a test of the president t

david: welcome now megan greene a capitaliami, markets head of global research and chief investments.et's start right here in new york. this is the big debate, do we pay attention to models or experience. we heard mr. bollard say i was there. an intellectual argument. the best way to hedge equity risk is to be in long-term bonds. that may not mean were going into recession. the reality is that if it's different this time, investors think it means a recession. different, its could be a prophecy. david: do we keep on this path? real --nk it's a possibility. i don't think it means recession. there is a lot to factor in here. an inverted yield curve is very possible. does it mean a recession is eminent? i would say it's to the contrary. i think it's going to continue. alix: the atlanta fed president said he would height. he would not want to hike into a yield curve inversion. over fedcontrol policy? constrainhink it will the front. i think we get one more rate hike this year. we might get to. alix: you are not alone. --ammad ali are you said mohammed all area in -- no matter how confident

. >> let's bring in megan green. look the part if you're going to go out there. >> thanks for joining us you know, i'm always glad when we only talk about the fed maybe once a week instead of we used to talk about them like once an hour but will anything come out of this, do you think, other than steve getting another paid vacation >> says the man who does how many golf trips a year >> sorry, megan. >> that's okay look, no major announcement has been made at a jackson hole fed conference since 2010 when bernanke made a big statement. and it's not like we haven't been hearing from members and fed regional presidents ad nauseam so i don't think we'll get any major changes that are signalled to us. that being said, i think steve is right the official topic is changes in market structure and the impact on monetary policy i think officially they'll be talking about shifts to passive investment, what that means for liquidity in a downturn and things like that, but around the water cooler or fishing hole, i think there will

. >> let's bring in megan green. al chief economist and head of investment strategy at proshare advisers megan i was looking at some of your notes that's where i came up with dog days there's not a lot of data points that we're going to see, are there? but the cpi number coming up that could be at least headline could be interesting i guess >> yeah so it's not a super busy week particularly in the u.s headline cpi will probably stay con stabt constant at 2.9% what's interesting about that is that we just got average hourly earnings last friday and that came in at 2.7% again which means that you'll have headline inflation running ahead of average hourly earnings so workers are going to be falling behind which is never a good thing for the economy so even though we had this incredible gdp growth people aren't feeling it in their pockets. >> i feel like we didn't get the bang for our buck because of the revisions. if we had known on the previous two reports that they were going to be revised 59 -- whatever it was -- thos