the third case is no reynolds. -- mel reynolds. one thing he did not do is he did not go down a level. he tried to run for congress, the same seat he had lost. , he was having an affair with a 15-year-old campaign volunteer. that was not easily forgiven. triede back in his seat, to run for his former congressional seat, and only won 6% of the vote. the next important variable is contrition versus competitiveness. the african-american candidates we looked at tended to be more on the side of combativeness. we have a theory about why that is more successful. marion berry was probably the most contrite. you might remember his famous line on being caught on videotape. he said, "the bitch set me up." he was actually more contrite than the other candidates we looked at, if that provide some context. [laughter] alluded to vaguely some mistakes he made. hastings said he never made any theakes at all even though house found convincing evidence andook $150,000 in bribes the democratic majority house of representatives voted 14-3 to impeach hi

mel reynolds vaguely alluded to some mistakes that he had made. alcee hastings said he never made any mistakes at all, even though the house of representatives documents enough evidence that he took $150,000 in bribes as they voted 413 to three com a democratic majority house of representatives. and then he was convicted. that was kind of icted. that was kind of the levels of contrition and combativeness under the trio looked at. finally, personal credibility. marion barry had 20 years of experience in the civil rights movement in nashville, helping organize lunch counterfeited been in washington d.c. after the riot he was one of the leading figures in driving trucks, delivering food throughout southeast washington d.c. he had a turn on this amount of credibility from community and have it work. that really put him in good standing when it was time for his comeback. hastings had come the e-mail, a decent amount of charisma and personal credibility based on his work. mel reynolds clearly had the least and most probably a critical fact or that led t

then the third, mel reynolds, just made too big a there is. let me explain why briefly. marion barry had been a three-term mayor of washington, d.c. we he came back he didn't run for mayor immediately. he ran for city council and had a choice in running for city council the eu a run for out large council said or he could run in his home base which was the eighth ward when he sort of originally nurtured his political ties back in the early 1970s. coincidentally that district is also, but word is also the poorest ward in washington and the most overwhelmingly like. and he believed, and apparently wisely, that he would find the most sympathetic audience for his return in that ward. he won and ended up going to be, going on to be elected mayor after that. but that probably would not have happened if you chose and run from it in his first time back out. second case, alcee hastings, he probably made a mistake his first time back. the ring in a statewide primary for secretary of state in florida. now, one of the reasons that was a difficult, again, race is i think preeminent he