and melection. and mckinley's. and many more. but sadly, our government often bans gambling. here officials take an axe to casino equipment. >> turns out that all of our familiar financial institutions were once banned as illegal gambling. stock markets were banned. commodity markets were banned. insurance was banned. so we have a long history of having things banned. >> in-trade was banned, too. the world no longer benefits from its predictions. >> recently, however, the government granted a few exceptions to its bans. >> how come these guys got a yes and the rest got a no? >> we don't know. >> the bureaucrats keep changing their minds. 12 years ago, they asked hanson to create a market. >> the department of defense heard that prediction markets were interesting. that they were doing powerful thing. and they said show us. show us it work for stuff we do. >> we were going to predict events in the middle east. so immediately people started to bet on -- we never got that far. >> it is ridiculous and it's grotesque. >> the idea of people betting on when there might be terrorism