martin meltzer is a senior health economist who heads the modeling team at the c.d.c. >> we don't makee answer that will make all the decisions for them. we produce some numbers that help them come to a decision. >> reporter: they formulated a model designed to predict how bad things might get. they factored in things like how many cases there are how long people stay sick, how likely they are to survive, how many will seek care and how many are accurately diagnosed, although there's a lot of complicated mathematics beneath what you see on the screen, the result is a simple spreadsheet that is shared publicly. meltzer believes in transparency. >> these people here, in the red, are where, you don't want your patients to be-- they are at home, they're not isolated, there are still connection and contact with the family and the rest of the community and there is no safe burial. >> reporter: when meltzer and his team first ran the numbers, the results took their breath away. the line quickly went off the charts. an exponential train wreck-- 1.4 million confirmed ebola cases predicted in a

. >> watching the video, meltzer and alexandra can scarcely believe their ears. >> first of all, i meane honest you don't really think an officer could be that stupid. second of all, you are happy for your client because you've just won their case because their entire case is based upon a fraud. >> for alexandra, finally everything made sense. >> i felt redeemed, you know, that what i was saying from the beginning was true. >> i'd really rather not comment any further at this time. thank you. >> after an investigation, the four officers and the civilian are fired. but why would officers of the law go so far as to bend the truth in a police report to help a buddy? meltzer has a hunch. >> officer joel francisco had been involved in several accidents involving his police cruiser, and ultimately he did not want to be disciplined more severely. >> you're driving impaired, under the influence of an alcoholic beverage. >> for the sake of covering up a minor mishap, five careers have been ruined. >> integrity. that's involved in every criminal investigation no matter how big or how small. writi

joshua meltzer the brookings institution said that this: "as a 21st century trade agreement, the trans-pacific partnership presents an important opportunity to address a range of environmental issues from illegal logging to climate change and to craft rules to strike an abhorrent -- appropriate balance between supporting open trade and ensuring governments respond to pressing environmental issues." ensuring that of the goes respond to pressing environmental issues. who is going to ensure? who has the power to ensure the united states meets some environmental standard somebody somewhere has set or even the president would like to see set? well that is a serious matter, and i don't think we should treat it lightly. i do believe that the american people are correct to be dubious about this trade agreement. polling data, as i understand it clearly shows i.t. not supported by the american people. yet forces are at work, breaking arms and breaking hands and bludgeoning people into acquiescence to vote for this thing, a and it cleared the house by the narrowest of margins. we had 62 votes when it pas