he would destroy merrill lynch and probably force bank of america to spin off merrill lynch, that wouldgood for his 401(k) because bernie sanders thinks we should go back to preglass siegel times. hillary clinton has a lot of contributions from wall street. biggest contributor is morgan stanley, not goldman sachs, the reason for that is simple, a friend of ours, tomnides, vice chairman of goldman sachs was hillary clinton's secretary of state. neil: she is, despite left leaning statements of late, far more powerful. >> when you look at the top corporate donors for hillary, this is through june and get the update in october. goldman sachs is not there. goldman sachs and her were tight, they paid her for speeches. lloyd blankfein, the ceo is very tight with hillary. maybe they're sick of us talking about it, but they're not there. jpmorgan is as well. and merrill lynch, the thundering herd behind bernie sanders. neil: wow. that is a weird thing. hey, we're talking to charlie gasparino, why are we talking to charlie gasparino? >> no, talking to courtney campbell. neil: she's the producer,

scarlet: back with us is david woo from bank of america, merrill lynch.ier you said the easing policy represents the single greatest risk for the financial markets for the rest of this year. does that necessarily mean china has to devalue further for monetary policy? david: for me, the most important development is that we are seeing chinese capital pouring out of china at an unprecedented rate. this is the first time we've ever seen this. money is leaving china in search of safe haven. if the fed starts hiking rates, this will suggest that the chinese central bank will have to sell even more treasuries to maintain stability, which will only compound the effects of 25 basis point hike by the fed. i think it is very unlikely that china can ease monetary policy without the said taking it a bit more easy. the fed rate hike in september, it's hard to believe that china has something to do with it. alix: and what you made in the had all because we have of this selling, it is actually holding pretty steady. can you talk about that? this: i'm glad you bring up,

analyst at bank of america merrill lynch joins me now. talked about coppermine's being sold out. at the global economy now, in steel, what do we see happening is so >? mine still has reserves in the ground. i think the oversupply of steel and aluminum really has its reach in china. now that the contraction in china is underway, you see the production is not followed shoot -- not followed suit. chinese excess supply and the fact that that means there is lower around the world, the u.s. is producing the relatively high cost. the u.s. dollar going against them. challenging and mixed market for u.s. steel. how long could china continue to do that? >> i have been following this market for 12 years, 13 years now. we have wonder that for a very long time. it is longer than you think. in the alumina markets you have seen years of loft making and continuing to produce. the chinese do not look at taxes the same way or depreciation has the same labor cost or requirements that we have here and the u.s. with health care cost. seems to be longer than w

guests today include david woo of merrill lynch joining him in a moment.moments away from the closing bell. we are talking treasuries. we will be back. ♪ betty: welcome back to the "bloomberg market day." i am betty liu. julie hyman has a check on the action right before the closing bell. julie: there are say it looks like we are going to close eyes of the session. i have been afraid to say that other days because it goes away in the last few minutes. betty: what different thing can i say? julie: it is nice to be able to say in the next 10 minutes, we are probably going to see the same trend because that has not always been the way recently. all three averages look like they will close near the highs of the session. what implications does that have for our trajectory? where are we in the correction? look at my bloomberg terminal and i will show you. we made the highs of the year, the record for the s&p 500, in may. from then until today, we are down about 7%, 6.7% to be exact. at the lows in august, we were down about 12.4%. we have not quite retraced 50%

just says, how many more financial advisors in merrill lynch. people look at bank of america and say this is a company that is supposed to be a leveraged bet on the u.s. economy and they see revenue not growing but shrinking at a time the u.s. is the fastest-growing economy in the industrialized world. what is wrong with the picture? brian: the issue is the rundown revenue have a lot to do with assets.d other we ran those down. that pretty much hit equilibrium. we see in spread revenue. spreading revenue has basically been flat. we had a one-time adjustment basically flat. that is starting to grind up. of loans in the portfolio has grown to quarters in a row. can outgrows is we it. when we had $175 billion of credit loans, it was hard to outpace that growth. we probably hit the bottom and now we can grow that back because it can keep up with it. question, it happens a lot faster, but we still can drive the reverend r country despite good and hard work even in a low environment. four is you measure yourself, return on assets and your efficiency r

the chief investment officer at bank of america merrill lynch wealth investment management. alix: the french president says progress was made today as leaders from ukraine, russia, france, and germany met in paris to resume peace talks on ukraine. hollande says the cease-fire is now respected. agreed ons originally terms during a previous meeting in minsk in february. progress in key areas of the deal seem to have stalled. scarlet: jason chaffetz of utah preparing a bid to replace john boehner as speaker of the house, according to politico. leader kevinority mccarthy is considered the favorite, but daniel webster of florida also in the mix. boehner is stepping down later this month. alix: another house speaker candidate making his bed congressman kevin mccarthy is retreating from comments he made suggesting the house benghazi committee was created to undercut hillary clinton's presidential campaign. the california republican tells fox news he regrets making the panel's purpose of your political. he is the current house majority leader and is looking to quell the controversy

6.9, you know, when i was an analyst at merrill lynch years and years and years ago, we watched earnings. if they made earnings by the .1. we never believed that. 26.6 was 27. >> i'm going to argue that, you know, china's economy is now more than 50% services oriented. not manufacturing anymore. >> okay. >> why can't we look at retail sales and consumer spending? isn't this what we're moving towards? shift towards qualitative consumer spending rather than exporting manufacturing? >> i think china is rotating towards that economy. terrific growth in the middle class. so many people growth in the middle class can account for a lot of growth. so many of the u.s. companies and european companies are targeting that chinese company. you're right, it is an important factor. what i'll say about that is a lot of that is driven by sentiment. it's down somewhat. it had risen. they saw asset values artificially rise. what happens when the stock market shocks in europe or the u.s. you have a sentiment change. could that change consumer behavior? >> len, stick with us. founder, ceo fifth street. >>> l

wealthtrack" -- mapping the world's changing landscape in an exclusive interview bank of america merrill lynch'sobal chief investment strategist michael hartnett explains the theemgs transforming the bloglo and how to invest in them next on "consuelo mack wealthtrack." ♪ >>> new york life along with main stay's family of mutual funds offers investment and retirement solutions so you can help your clients keep good going. >>> additional funding provided by lu in,

lynch inmerica merrill hong kong today. thank you so much for that.have some breaking news to share with you. united airlines is naming rep part as acting ceo. -- brett hart as acting ceo. coming up, jamie dimon himself after the short break. ♪ angie: welcome back. you are watching "first up". china's economic growth is better than expected, but jamie dimon says there are bumps ahead. he spoke to stephanie ruhle on bloomberg and said beijing is still facing some huge issues. >> china has had 20 years of 10% growth uninterrupted, never before seen on this planet. reform, itto market is the state owned enterprises have more transparency. they need will bond markets, collateral markets, reduce corruption. they will have bumps in the road. in the summer, they showed they will have bumps in the road and the growth will not be 10%, might be 6% to 7%. that's $600 billion of growth. that's a lot more than 15 years ago when it was 10% growth. 600 billion dollars is more than most countries on this planet, so they have the wherewithal. 3.5 train dollars in

the lead underwriters are jp morgan and merrill lynch among others.atch, mhch following for ipo under $100 million. >> interesting time to go public. >> this is not even a name we've heard a valuation on. i think it is a interactive, we've had roll-ups when they are not fashionable things and they think it's time. i suspect it's probably -- >> not a match made in heaven. this is not a hot ipo season. i don't think i would have any interest in this at all. wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't do well. >> earnings season get into full swing next week. so far we've had 58 s&p 500 companies reports and 19% below. one man is keeping score is dom chu back with the names that could see big moves next week. >> well, if you thought we had a lot of scores to keep track of last week, wait until next week. you've got morgan stanley on monday, chipotle on tuesday, boeing on wednesday, mcdonald's on thursday and procter & gamble on friday. you know where there could be lots of action, that's large cap technology. these three giants in particular, you're talking ab

match will go public under the ticker symbol mtch, jpmorgan, merrill lynch, among others. match filing for an ipo of up to $100 million. back to you. >> seema mody, thank you. >>> interesting time to go public, i don't know if you have any thoughts about the space. >> this is not even a name that we have heard a valuation on that has any excitement about it. i think this is a barry diller name. we had all the roll ups when these were not fashionable things now they are kicking them back out because they think it's time. >> not a match made in heaven. this is not really a hot ipo season and this is not something that's got a lot of buzz, i don't think i would have any interest in this at all. i wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't do well. >> earnings season gets into full swing next week. let's hit the score card. so far 58 s&p 500 companies report with 71 coming in throw estimates, 19d% below. one man keeping score is dom chu. >> well, melissa, if you thought we had a lot of scores to keep track of this week, just wait until next week, that's when over 100 s&p 500 compan

john norman joins us from bank of america merrill lynch. this is a real economy discussion filtering in. francine: let's get to bloomberg's first world news in new york. isnie: president obama pushing back his timetable to bring americans home from afghanistan. the white house is expected to announce today that they will keep at least 5000 troops there 2016.2016 according -- the taliban and has stepped up attacks since the u.s. ended combat operations in afghanistan left december. more problems for volkswagen. they see some -- they face a mandatory recall in germany after cheating on omissions tests. regulators rejected their proposal for a voluntary callback. at majore delays airports across the u.s. last night because of a computer used for terror watch lists. the outage lasted 90 minutes. authorities don't think it was intentional. donald trump has a new target -- bernie sanders. after the debate, the republican front-runner says that he is a "socialist communist" pushing clinton to the left. >> i watched her to the -- s he has to give e

to make america merrill lynch only 26 companies offered guidance versus the average of 65.ck of visibility. will they be giving lowball forecast? >> they will be giving lowball forecast, we always know that is they are ablese tobeat forecast atlas by 3% 4%. but the one we are concerned about now is not the specific forecast of receivables what companies see about the environment going forward. there is a lot of uncertainty out there. companies are able to say we are managing through to actually seeing some signs of improvement either through revenues or cost cuts. that is a positive. in some cases, it is the biggest headwind, the stronger dollar we have seen over the past year. that could be a positive catalyst for earnings forward. scarlet: they are qualifying everything. how do you pull that into your analysis? the besty to make judgment you can based on what they are saying, as putting ranges of estimates to it. that is the whole role of analysis, a broad general commentary at building up from other macro indicators and micro indicators that we have to try to get numbers

she was previously cohead energy and power investment banking at merrill lynch.nch police have arrested six people in connection with that skirmish at a union meeting six weeks ago. they fled the scene with their shirts practically ripped off their backs after they were allegedly assaulted by a union activist. they were protesting a plan by the airline creating 2900 job cuts and longer hours. fiat chrysler spent off will more than $4 billion for the telling american automaker. inaddition to million proceeds, ferrari will trade on the new york stock exchange. you can always get more business news at bloomberg.com. it is time for the democratic candidates to shine. sanders, jimie webb and lincoln chafee and others will face off in las vegas for the first democratic debate of the selection cycle. comforter -- governor had this advice. >> the authentec, being yourself. rewardns in the end authenticity because that is exactly what they are in search of right now. betty: easier said than done. joining us now from vegas is our very own john heilemann. be writing hillary

bank of america and merrill lynch saying we could see a similar jump in yields as we head towards thistainty in november. the market is not reacting that much, but the treasury is. >> maybe the freedom caucus it should look at that chart. they would probably be involved in via. -- be emboldened by. oflook into the volatility european stocks. vix, a the european ratio at its lowest point since august. this indicates a return to complacency when traders were not pricing in big swings in equities. index in europe has only moved and daily average of 7/10 of 1% this month, the smallest move since march. they are waiting for the ecb to announce something, although that looks less likely. >> we will get that tomorrow. >> the ecb began policy meetings today and malta. press conference tomorrow morning. mario draghi help to save the euro. there are signs that investors are doubting firepower because the euro has appreciated a percent against the dollar since the middle of march. joe: we are joined by deutsche bank director of foreign strategy. thank you for joining us. what are you expecting fr

based on a bank of america-merrill lynch note.ere is news about dufault, in particular a corporate bond issue, the tighten. the investors demanding less risk -- alix: that makes no sense. tracy: they are just assuming the government will bail out that company. it's just a chance to get extra yield. as the leverage increases, that money is going to the bond market. a stunning is statistic. the number of bond repose in the chinese market have gone up something like 43% since august of a.ing to be of a -- b them out bonds, repo in the market, secure loans against them, use that money to buy even more bonds. bonds up on bonds. never let these companies default? as you have more and more expectation that everything can be bailed out, would it be painful? that is the big question. based on what they did on friday, which is lower the ,nterest rates yet again .etting a bunch of companies go we have rumblings of trouble in specific companies and there's always talk of china saying these ones, finally, a point to be the examples for the mar

. -- strategist at merrill lynch says. she ran the numbers in terms of those industry groups. you go back to the beginning of the year when it was 10% more expensive. it was just last month with the declines that we saw that it turned cheaper. as much as 5% cheaper than the s&p 500 index on that basis. the way that she figures it, it would take a 60% increase in the s&p 500 health care index to bring that group back into line when you look at these forward price-earnings ratios under the comparison. betty: but they were never that expensive. they were never a bubble territory. david: these stocks were more expensive in relative terms than more recently. that said, with the declines out of the august drop in stocks and beyond, that made them cheap by this price-earnings measure. julie: it depends on what subgroup you're looking at in health care. if you look at the nasdaq biotech index and its valuation versus the s&p, it still remains in relatively elevated levels. it has come down, but if you look at the pe basis, it is twice as expensive as the s&p 500. but she still does wa

simon: bank of america merrill lynch is estimating 602. what did the central banks do?e the european central bank looking at pressure and quantitive easing. that has been tried and bond yields are pretty low. haveiscussion economists is whether it is time for even more unorthodox monetary policy. you can either push for negative rates or you can unite the governments. still a lot of debt out there, but the deficits have come down. are the others going to have to step up as well? jonathan: the answer always seems to be more. thank you for joining us. talking about glencore, in the interest of transparency, peter grauer is a senior independent nonexecutive director of glencore. coming up, a lot of data still to come. pmi day from china. we tell you what you need to watch for the rest of the day and break down the numbers coming out of europe, next. ♪ jonathan: good morning. welcome back. 52 minutes past the hour -- here are your top stories. . china's official factory gauge stabilized around the three-year low pmi climbed to 39.8 in september. china and hong kong exchange

the chief investment officer at bank of america merrill lynch will be joining us next.s is the "bloomberg market day." rising less than forecast as wage growth remains stuck. what does a sluggish hiring in september mean for the u.s. economy? scarlet: treasury yields below 2% on the 10 year. we will look at the probability of a fed move very alix: president obama will answer questions after one of the longest-serving members of his cabinet steps down. scarlet: good afternoon, everyone. alix: we are going to go straight to bloomberg's julie hyman. julie, it was a surprising day. at one point the dow was off by triple digits and now it's off by 43% -- 43 points. that was the playbook, the idea of bad news is

equity strategist at bank of america merrill lynch, who says the valuations for health care are gettinge reasonable after the recent decline. so this is the forward p/e of health care versus technology as compared with the s&p 500. health care is in black, technology is in green. health care valuations have come down to such an extent that they are now more competitive with technology. in particular within the health care industry, pharma and life-sciences. biotech,. the thing she wants to get involved with right now. david: thank you very much. now we go to mark crumpton at the news desk. mark: thank you so much. there is a new speaker in the house. wisconsin republican paul ryan was sworn in today, and he wasted little time and minced no words describing the paralyzing partisan divide on capitol hill. ryan: let's be frank. the house is broken. we are not solving problems. we are adding to them. and i am not interested in laying blame. scores.ot settling we are wiping the slate clean. mark: his words were preceded by a farewell address from retiring speaker john boehner, who said he le

goldman sachs, merrill lynch. know, he had so many aides hat were crappy. this is alberto gonzales resigning. warningsf their terror were related to politics. i've got the john kerry ridgeral and you see tom starting to suspect these terror alerts are politically motivated. and then my favorite character from the bush administration, i "informed theing leader of the free world i shot somebody." somebody." he didn't rely on experts or knowledge or thought. he relied on his gut. he is saying "i do what my gut tells me." here is the thing with these cartoons. occasionallyaling bush related cartoons because of the lasting impact his administration has had on america. this actually runs tomorrow. i'd root this right before i was leaving to come here. i have -- i drew this right before i was leaving to come here. i have isis. then the good times may continue. jeb is a saying "despite the economic collapse, the bush is primed for comeback like the measles." i will leave it there. thank you all for coming. [applause] permit ak time will live drawing and maybe not f

david: i wonder the merrill lynch side feels that?ould say it today he would not do anything different, they would never have hampered their business so much because brian moynihan, could he have ever gone the head of his security business to voluntarily pullback that much? no way, jose. fabio: he is sinking the to the has to sing. i think that was a good interview and a valid series of questions but i think it is a challenge to say what he really thinks. erik: i think part of it has to do with the fact that he is not just being a pragmatist but a realist. you cannot put the genie back in the bottle. you cannot repeal dodd-frank. to say i can operate my business within confines is one thing, but to say i would have done this regardless, this is great is a completely different thing. is sayinghink he above. at this point, one in nine employees working in the firm is either in risk compliance or control. at some point, you have eight guys -- stephanie: it would be considered the ditto of investment banks. fabio: right. david: in defense

. >> when the financial system breaks down to the point where morgan stanley doesn't trust merrill lynch enough to lend it money overnight the whole system is in danger of imploding. and no one has stepped in and done anything, we have a collapse in financial markets and the deflationary depression and business owners, investors and every day americans would have suffered more than they did during the financial crisis. >> you heard expert witnesses for the prosecution say this is no big deal, let markets take care of themselves, shakeouts our normal, why is this kind of credit crisis, credit crunch different when the hole money-market is like this? >> extraordinary circumstances require extraordinary measures. ordinarily i would be a non interventionist but when you have a situation like this where for instance we were

i am looking at bank of america merrill lynch.xposure to glencore at over $100 billion per we believe the significant majority is unsecured. the exposure is now coming into investor focus. they are now paying attention. is that true? the point is are they paying attention and the answer is yes. what they have done cutting back and closing them. the real reason this has got so much focus is this is the commodity market sold off for radically. china is not the big buyer of copper. the other thing is, and this is changing for the industry and not just for glencore, it looks to me when you own a mind, the one thing you need to do is produce. you sometimes have got to cut that back, whether it is oil or copper or whatever it may be. a traitor can go long and short. if you own a mine, you're stuck long. a -- ant unlike industrial company or one of the operating banks, you close the mine. you do not have to put electricity in it or say many people guard the door. it is easy to do that. issue is a lot of these are in developing companies.

goldman sachs, merrill lynch,l secu although rione that wanted socil security to be privatized.ou know, and he's had some eat aids that were just like crappy hat weis is alberto gonzales resign them. i went to spend more time with misleading my family. so much of their terror warnings were related to politics and so. i have got the john kerry inaugural nuc, ridges-- tom ridge is doing a code yellow whatever that is. on sorry to suspect this terror alerts are politically motivated. then, my favorite character froa the bush administration, i have katie saying to an aide, inform the leader of the free world i e shot someone. you shot someone cracksor?"i here's what i think bush went wrong. som he didn't rely on experts or knowledge or, you know, that. he relied on his got.he is sai w i do what my gut tells me. thi h now, here's the thing. here's the thing with these cartoons, i am still doing okay showing bush related cartoons becausear of the lasting impact that his administration has hada on america, so thisll actually runs tomorrow. i drew this before i was leaving to come here.

joining us is morgan stanley's wealth management senior market strategist and she is merrill lynchesortfolio solutions. >> congratulations on your 20th anniversary. >> thank you. do you think this is a situation where the fed isn't going to raise rates so the party is still on. >> i would 100% agree with that. what's amazing on this rally is we have gotten broad participation buying. so certainly if you look at the futures market the market is now seeing somewhere in march or april the fed will raise rates. now at bank of america merrill lynch we're saying there's a chance if the economic data is supportive that they'll raise in december. we believe the fed does want to lift off. >> so if they can't find an excuse for it you think they'll go ahead. >> right. but here's the thing, only once since the fed has been in existence have they ever raised during the month of december. because during career end there's such a scramble for capital to close books but we're still going to stick with we know the fed wants to lift off. if they have an excuse to lift off with the economic data they

bank of america merrill lynch as we speak putting got a note that rab has been raised to neutral.en the stock goes up by 9%. what with thing will happen with this rav store. him --iful impact on how stocks will open. we're focused on sabmiller and of course glencore front and center. confirmed quite a lot over the last half hour. a sea of green. higher.we will get better than what it was before. germany looks like it will outperform. it could be up by 0.4%. u.s. futures as well. around 0.1%ng up by now. it was negative a little earlier. columbus day and that will affect the story in little bit later on. john haynes, head of research. let's focus stateside. we kick off the earnings season this week and banks are front and center on surprisingly, what will they deliver for us? john haynes: i think they will be pretty down. a lot of the american local banks, domestic, has had most of the tailwind they can have. some extraordinary earnings and that has basically been declining and revenues. it is really hard without an interest rate rising. -- if theyd said raise rates, looks like a b

scarlet: bank of america merrill lynch has a number were 26 companies offered guidance.t is not enough companies are offering any kind of guidance, positive or negative. do investors go and ins -- assumes a worse? >> can be part of it. especially when you have the situation. in conversation with analysts they are not slower a lowering guidance. what you see is this negative companies are not saying boo about anything. for companies that do beat numbers they have a very strong cross performance. you saw fedex earlier. the stocks really got hit hard. i wanted to take a look into my bloomberg terminal to chart what has happened to earnings at apple in the past year versus the stock price. it is holding up versus the provisions the red line. it looks pretty ugly. thatnalyst to pessimistic this type of chart. the stock price is right and still up. big question with apple is the large numbers. product isoward the very strong. how much more can you grow on revenue and keep the growth when you get to high levels? there is a group thinking the strongest growth is behind apple. pe

we track the merrill lynch investment manager survey and are thenvestment, they biggest underway in emerging markets more than they were in the lehman crisis. we actually probably are coming from the bottom here. betty: you know the phrase comes to mind, how close are we? we are close to the bottom but how close? feels this could be a good time to stay allocated because we look at valuations for the asset classes and they are trading at historical discounts, their own levels as well as levels of the market. investors should be brave and the good place starting a great investment stay allocated or potentially added that more. betty: though the imf cut their forecast again? catherine: right. it is not just a matter of what it looks like. i agree with you that it is challenging and we should talk a little bit about china as well. at how much is already priced into valuation. a lot of the bad news has already been priced in and you can find great companies at good prices, which means they are good stocks and they can make money for you over time. betty: you mentioned china. if we want a sense of

this is the bank of america, merrill lynch market risk index.his is an index that checks volatility across equities, rates, currencies and commodities. it is falling. volatility is falling for the fourth day since mid-september. the three-year high on september 4. the chicago board option volatility index has fallen for five days. big, because a monday, a closed below 20 for the first time in over 30 days. run above lengthy is that level since 2012. have a look at this. german factory orders. do you want to see a volatile index? this is factory orders going back from 2000. that is shows -- that shows how volatile it is. yes, it it fell by 8%. benefitingmand is the record employment. wages and low inflation. quite a chart here, manus. that is how you put -- manus: that is a put volatility in a chart. six brokers accused of alleged libel -- the benchmark market rate is behind trillions of dollars of financial deals. caroline hyde has been following this. this is a trial that will be closely watched. years after the investigations began at two mont

america, to bank of merrill lynch, high-quality as a company that has smooth earnings.hunned by money managers. junk is low-quality. you don't know when or where earnings will go over the next half year. that'swhat's -- alix: what so striking, it's a shift because you are nervous about the global economy. our investors just looking for some thing different? this chart comes from bank of america, they wound up looking at the outperformance of shares that do a lot of repurchasing. they noticed that is declining, meaning investors are that excited anymore about stocks that buyback a lot of shares. they want better balance sheets instead. , notdea of better quality too interested in the eps in that capacity. scarlet: it makes sense given where we are in the rate cycle, with the federal reserve getting ready to normalize interest rates. those companies that were borrowing a lot of money to fund vivax, that may be coming to an end. to have to find another way goose your earnings per share, it will be through buybacks. alix: you see investment-grade yield move up, it's kind of

downgraded over bank of america and merrill lynch. down sharply, 12%.s reports more morning, bank of america is also cutting it still price estimate because of greater exports from china. we are talking about u.s. steel prices in particular also because there has been a drop in scrap prices. past year, over the the measures we're talking about. a problem for some steelmakers when you see prices collapse in that way. earnings tomorrow morning should be interesting. >> there is an oversupply and i do not want to cut or leave money on the table. then you get lower prices. thank you so much. scarlet: chinese leaders are meeting in beijing have their hands full. alix: the country is also doing with a manufacturing slowdown. it cut its interest rate for the sixth time in a year. join bloomberg this morning with his take on what china is doing to address economic problems. >> in my view, the recent interest rate costs will not be particularly helpful for the because we have had a meaningful slowdown already at the time they cut interest rates six times si

want to take this opportunity before we let you both go to talk about a note that came out of merrill lynch striking. it's from left field. but the suggestion is that next year there could be a major policy shift if we see a downturn in economies, that the likes of the united states and europe will acknowledge the qe hasn't work the and therefore embark on a fiscal stimulus that could cause inflation. he is suggesting therefore buy gold, inflation protected bonds. i'm not sure if you have seen that note, and i don't want to drag you into the work of rival houses, but the fact there could be a massive shift from monetary policy to fiscal, how likely is that? >> the push to get fiscal policy in line with supporting the economy and the world, that's been a debate that's been around for a while. you had central bankers all around the world, including ben bernanke, talking about this. our general view is that monetary policy, we would agree, has diminishing returns. at this point, after seven years of zero interest rate policy, we don't think it's helping the economy. the opposite should help th

chief portfolio strategist and michelle myers joins us, deputy head of economics, bank of america, merrill lynch. brian, where do you think the markets will go from here? >> well, for the month of october, i'm really looking for the markets to stage a bit of a rally. i think that upside might be capped. there are still a lot of unknowns. i have been calling this a will they, won't they type of market. will the feds hike rates at the october meeting? there are enough unknowns that there is so much skepticism that we could cap the up side at 2100. i think the up side is limited. >> anecdotally, there seems to be an awfully lot of negativity, for obvious reasons, perhaps. isn't it a primary objective to be contrary in that environment? >> that is typically a good idea. however, what i like to see is some of the reason why people are negative, some catalyst to make it go away. i am just not sure if october is the month in which we are going to see a lot of that uncertainty move away. we do have that in china. i am looking for the chinese government to reaffirm their commitment to market opening. the

for more, we're joined by michael hanson at bank of america merrill lynch and kevin karen market strantegistn, this isn't show a serious deterioration and i think that's the kind of stud thattitude tha are approaching it with. >> yeah, it's not a serious deterioration, but the composite picture for us, this has been a relatively soft year. in fact we have to go back to 2006, 2007, 2008 to find a weaker year. so we'll just be surprised if we get to the imf expected growth rate of over 3%. we don't think the global economy is growing that fast and consequently are a bit cautious on portfolios at this point. >> let's come back to that in a moment. michael, you're the economist here. how much confidence do you have in the figures? on the one happened the drag for lower manufacturing and exports of course being eased by services which apparently in china accelerated at 8.4% despite the fact that stock market was melting down at the time. >> yeah, i think the direction of data is right. who knows for sure exactly where the levels are. there is a lot of skepticism that the numbers may be in fact lo

joining me is barnaby martin, i head of credit strategy at bank of america, merrill lynch.ou looking at over in europe? barnaby: you would have thought marketth all of the slowdown in china, etc., they would have -- they would leave bonds, stocks, etc. moneyweek, we have seen leaving bonds, but at the same time we've seen money going into equities. it's rare to see that kind of rotation. it makes us believe that what is happening here is as we move toward an extension of qe, which bank of america expects next week, what retail investors are saying is, hang on, yields will be so low for such a long time in europe that the best bond proxy out there, perversely enough, is actually stocks. this is being catalyzed by more movement toward more qe in europe. andhanie: really, equities bonds usually work in tandem, not split apart like this. is a head scratcher for us as well. the only way to explain it is to that thehe oddities inconsistencies throwing up. the one asset class that should be outperforming because of you we -- of qe is struggling at the moment and it is bullish for

what do you think of bank of america and merrill lynch?at bank of america, you are absolutely right. it's a different story. as we all know, this company struggled the most in the downturn. it's now in recovery. the recent move by the -- to put moynihan as chairman and ceo is the last piece of the problem. as we go forward, bank of america should benefit from the growth in the u.s. economy. >> of the two, jpmorgan and boa, which is the better investment? >> i think because of valuation and how inexpensive bank of america is at this point in the cycle, we would be a buyer of bank of america over jpmorgan today. >> gerard, moynihan said he would trim some operation if results did not improve. were you impressed by them at all and is a turn coming? >> i think we will see a trimming across the board if results don't improve for all the capital markets players. as you might recall, under the new dodd-frank regulations, the industry is somewhat hamstrung in trading regulations because of this, and it's all about driving up the return on equity,

joining us is an analyst at bank of america and merrill lynch.l be the winners this holiday season in which face and uphold battle. estimated -- estimation, who will make out? >> we're less than two months away from the holiday season with the forecast out this morning and we are looking at overall sales to grow this year. a is not a bad number but deceleration from last year's 3.7% for a few reasons. continue.deflation to also some new lower-priced entrance. we expected to remain slow. there is no must-have item and a lot of competition from players. consumers are shifting spending out of lower-priced discretionary items into bigger ticket items like home and auto. as for winners and losers, we think anyone providing a differentiated experience, we like the off-price retailers. ,ne stock we are highlighting they are really trying to add some fashion by launching new products. item.anywide fashion >> we began to look at retailers, using your store as a warehouse for online delivery. it has been a year. which company has done the best job of doing

. >>> the fourth stock in the oil and gas sector con co phillips added to bank of america merrill lynch'she analyst says it's not the highest baet at that name but has option value from woert restructuring t sold a lot of assets and that differentiates it in the face what have the analyst says looks increasingly like a bottoming process of this oil psych snool target 70 was a $70 stock almost to the date one year add. >> under the radar name, monroe muffler, mnro. after years of flat the down same store sales they may finally be able to turn positive. rising drives miles helping business. all the potholes are knocking everybody's muffler or brats off. they have an $81 target. >> that and gas savings leaving people to spend more. that sector getting a boost there. earnings october 22nd that's worth watching. >> i know you guys have the sort of obesity trade, maybe we need to have the pothole trade. good year, monroe. >> tire companies. >> lkq, o'reilly. >> yeah. >> no reclining. last word. thanks for watching "closing bell" -- or "power lunch." "closing bell" starts now. again. i did it. >

. >> bank of america merrill lynch raised their target on microsoft to 63 bucks, by the way, mandy.o they are super bullish on that name. >>> your third big stock story on this friday, ge. yeah, the stock is not doing a whole lot right now, but it has been one heck of a month for the company which is one of the most widely owned in the world. shares are now up 17% just this month. and they are now nearing a level that we have not seen since august of 2008. let's bring in jerry cast telly ni who recently bought shares of ge. jerry, you bought the stock. it's done well. congrats, are you selling or trimming your position to lock in some profit? >> not really. in the business of buying stocks, when you find a real simple concept and you can see how others will follow, you tend to like to hold onto it and let it run its course. we think we're just early. there's so many things sitting behind this from everything level. it's a big name. it's underowned. it's going through massive restructuring. it's got an activist board many. all the things people seek out right now in an uncertain mark

david from jeffries is with us today and mary from merrill lynch, steve grassorganization from stewart franco and rick santelli joining us from chicago. rick, steve grasso, i'm sorry, let me start with you to get a view from the new york stock exchange and what's going on today. so many different stories and i go back to a question i asked you the other day. is there t. market trading more on the fundamentals going on or is this more a technical kind of market here? >> i mean, it wants so desperately to trade on fundamentals. if you drill down on fundmentals, bill, dollar strength on a relative basis which is going to be a headwind for the multinationals. no one is getting super excited about that. technically we had -- you start off the show saying that we had one of the worst quarters, we've had the worst quarter since 2011 for equity, the worst quarter for commodities in 2008. what would really be the impetus to start buying into that if you look at what past performance has been, we've sold off 40 to 55% in the marketplace with two negative quarters. i don't mean to be the bearer o

. >> i was just speaking to the head of credit strategy at bank ever america merrill lynch and he makesre than 50% of the sectors in high yield have had negative price returns and that's the longest streak since '08. he makes the case we've seen this sort of i don't want to say con tatagio contagion, but it's gone beyond that. retail and telecom and now it's actually starting to hit media as well as health care. and those are the signs of a late stage cycle within high yield. what will make you get more cautious about high yield as you have so many people sounding the alarm? >> sure. i mean, what would make us more cautious actually is if inflation picked up dramatically and the fed had to hit the brakes and slam on the brakes on the u.s. economy. what really causes defaults to pick up, melissa, is nominal gdp slowing, real gdp going negative and a recession. we don't see a recession. we see the u.s. economy doing quite well. so, yes, it is true there are some issuers pushing the limits but the reality is the health of the overall high yield market, particularly the way pimco has manage

we saw inflows into bond and equity funds this week according to bank of america and merrill lynch, somethingt seen in weeks. >> the real question is whether the oil market and whether the energy sector -- the equity prices are getting it right or whether they are not. i mean, one of two things is true, either the oil sector and all those energy companies their stock prices bottomed in august and september, either they did or they didn't. >> what did you think about schlumberger today. >> sn. >> i don't think they are the big tell here because it's a services company. i'm looking at exxon. exxon performed really well today. >> tim, do you want to add any color to this? >> on schlumberger one of the things they said yesterday was that they saw the e and p names that they do service are allocating all the differential in oil prices that were slightly higher in the last few weeks are putting towards their balance sheet not cap ex. on the production side i think the pull back of production and lack of investment in new production in continuing and that's at least a back step under oil. i think th

the toughest was clearly september 2008, the lehman weekend, i think of lehman week with aig, merrill lynch pressure. we had to go, i remember taking secretary paulson, we talked to them about aig and what we were going to do and told the congress is not supporting this, this is your choice, your decision, your responsibility and it was very, very tough. maria: unbelievable. and you talked a lot about congress. and i remember those days when people were saying where is the fiscal policy and on the fed. you talked about this a lot. why was it so difficult for congress and the white house, by the way, to recognize that we needed fiscal help not necessarily just monetary stimulus? >> we had some early on, but 2009, 2010, cutting left and right, fiscal policy, we didn't have a balance between monetary and fiscal policy. for those who think that the fed left the rates too low too long they should look at a balance. maria: what do you say to the critics now, so many years later, they judged you from the moment we sort of got to dry land, what do you say to them or who say, look, we shouldn't be b

bank of america, merrill lynch, they did the same thing.hether or not the banks are -- i hate to say cheating, but skirting the rules by taking the view in some of the positions that they hold in order to make markets. the banks are still making markets which is why securities are instruments, warehousing them for a certain amount of time and ultimately selling them of theone else. is part reason why fixed income is still a multibillion dollar business. degree do they do that internally? it is hard to tell. real quick, sorry, stephanie, so the question is quickly, about whether it is speculative, that is the eye of the beholder. that may be one of the reasons it, noteferred to specifically, but why jpmorgan sold off the commodities. is the same -- one of the same reasons we sought the deutsche bank stock trading single name credit derivatives. because it is hard to live within the confines of what constitutes hedging versus proprietary trading, it became so onerous when you tied into the money they were making, they put their hands in the a

toughest clearly september 2008 the weekend followed by lehman week aig merrill lynch taken over goldmannd we had to go i remember taking -- secretary paulson went to caulk to going on aig explained to them what we were going to do, and we were basically told well congress is not supporting this this is your choice, this is your decision, you are responsibility, and it was very, very tough. maria: and he held the bag for them former federal reserve chairman ben bernanke telling me about tuftest time as headed of the bank in 2007 in book fighting words for aig executives are joining me fox business network exclusive are former aig chairman ceo hank greenberg, and chairman david boies, bernanke there talking about 2008, from your standpoint, hank one of the biggest stories of the finance minister crisis, is how the government acquired aig and charging the company 14% interest rates. >> yeah. >> tell us about that. >> it was outrageous i was out of the company then. maria: right. >> out ragous to, overreach the way they did. that the only do they charge 14 and one half% interest but acquire

and at merrill lynch, rates stay lower. >> really important point. boomers, they thought, and at facing anything like that. and through retirement based on the current environment we are in and equities are the answers. >> when john said it is not that bad, depending on what they stocks could be down 5 or 10 but bonds are up, they have been stocks, if you are s c r l and the anyone rates were going to surprise to the downside you're giving someone a much lower volatility profile and they have a big position, that is the elephant stomping around. >> how about real estate, retirees taking money out of their homes? >> i don't personally see that but what i to tell clients is only two places you can grow your well over coming years and that is the equity market in real estate. dagen: your looking long-term. >> not just because you are so smart and million investing but so humble as well. thank you, good to see you. thanks for joining us. apple music reaching 15 million users, tim cook, nicole petallides on that. nicole: speaking of of the wall street jou

in the few days, not anenpermy, in the few days following the collapse and remember that week merrill lynchrgan stanley, goldman sachs, you had wachovia. it was an enormously tricky week. it was our decision, o you are agreeme -- our agreement that we had been reticent that we could not save lehman because we were afraid that would create more panic. that may not have been the right decision, i certainly admit that, but that's what we did. >> one of the great values in this book, my opinion anyway, is the kind of blueprint for the next crisis. so, do me a favor. go back in the time machine. if you could set up the lehman weekend in a perfect way for the next policy maker, obviously you don't want it to fail and you go back in this book to bear stearns and say they didn't pick up, they didn't hint from bear over that six-month period, how would you do it differently so you don't end up with this awful result on monday morning? >> as i talk about in the book, you know, lehman was not -- it was not a bank. it was a separate investment bank, broker dealer and we had no -- the fdic can tell the

. >> good to see you, bank of america, merrill lynch forget shopping frenzy retailer getting a jump-startals nicole. >> good morning, maria, get your shopping list ready, the holiday deals are kicking off, this week end, all part of a continuing trend of the major retailers jump-starting the sales right after halloween to being attract all those bargain shoppers, walmart offering discounts on thousands of items, including toys, electronics for example, you can get an ipad mini, for 199 bucks, ipad mini2, down from 268 dollars or how about a 48 in which smart television, 299 dollars, save 20 bucks there target making the holiday switch offering savvy deals starting this week end as well, thenks, there is black friday macy's throwing down thanksgiving gaunltlet opening doors to hungry shoppers at 6 pm on thanksgiving day, for a consecutive year a handful of trair retailers trying to get your bucks ahead of this time we do the question is, i have the list who is open, open kohl's target kmart be left buy on thanksgiving, home depot bed bath and beyond the question gone are days people tramme

. >> do merrill lynch clients or financial consultants have more ferraris? hopefully the clients?swear? >> where are all the customers. >> we try to do a good job for our clients. >> in this day and age not too many financial consultants. starter, got to go over. robert frank. starter ferrari are over 200 and then there's one for 379. but if you want seats, then it's over 400. that's what he said. yeah. >> probably are very nice leather. >> you do sit pretty low. >> you got to be asked to be in that club. it's a pretty exclusive group. >> andrew, what's that great quote? >> we can't use that. >> if you can spend $400,000 on a car you have that kind of money. >> you have more money than you can probably use. >> you need a lot of money to spend that much on a vehicle i would think when you can get what's a zipcar. yeah. thrifty does pretty well too. >> chris, thank you. >> coming up, john aboutbarrassl join us. is secure, the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at at&t we monitor our network traffic so we can see thi