>> it is a pleasure to be joined by the bank of america-merrill lynch global m&a chairman. you have been in this capacity firs -- for about 18 years. give me a couple of trends. differe about how things today in the m&a landscape than a few years ago. >> 18 years. time flies when you're having fun. i can think of a few major trends over that time. the market is rewarding growth via m&a. it is not always the case. sometimes you announce a transaction and the price goes up. you announce a good, well structured, strategic deal, stock prices follow the acquire. number two is how m&a deals are being made.

we're talking to paul ciana from bank of america merrill lynch as well he'll tell us why he thinks the dollar decline is done that's at the top of the hour. >> thanks so much. what do we think freepo freeport materials? minors now the time >> well, for a balance for a trade. for a quick trade. for more of a longer term investment i think it's more of a prove it story that's got to come over multiple >> they keep building more capacity in that you don't want to be in commodity when on stream >> up next, chipotle, boeing, caol fd,co-ca,or mazon plus final trades when we come back hey gary, what'd you got here? this bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go.

of g10 fx at merrill lynch joins me. help me make sense of this. financial market stress. it is at the lowest point since 2014. when i look at the political stress in europe and the west, that is falling. when i look at china, north korea, around the australasian basin, that is rising. are markets mispricing political risk, in terms of their sanguine nature of financial ease? >> it is actually true that this political uncertainty has increased for a number of reasons, but markets are not pricing anything. is very low,lity equity markets are at an all-time high, risk assets are performing very well. you could say this is a positive, but if you think about it, if you are an investor, it

kamal sharma of bank of america merrill lynch.urn of the present to washington -- president to washington. what a good time to catch up with carl weinberg. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ minutes past the hour. i'm guy johnson in london. tom keene in new york. kamal sharma is still with us. yen weakness.of what happened over the last several weeks is central banks tacitly or not the agreed that we are in a position now to talk about exit and reflation. most central banks seem to be on the same page, and the bank of japan six out because it is not. go you arent do you thatdifferent page, currency manipulation, people will pay attention. kamal: i think currency diplomacy starts to become an issue, but we are a long way from that. get to aarting to position where folks make tor -- may turn to the weakness in the end. -- governoroded kuroda does not want to declare victory on reflation too early. for them this is domestic story rather than a currency manipulations toward. tom: bring up the chart. we are going to do a little trig

lynch next hour, merrill joins us to discuss the new positive asia outlook.vonne: odyssey asset management, we will get their view on what to expect from the fed's latest meeting. ramy: plus, if you're up for late-night -- night stack, we're joined on the back of the latest result at 11:10 p.m. in hong kong. this is bloomberg. ♪ yvonne: we are counting you down to asia's first major market open. a cloudy picture outside the imperial palace in tokyo. points.utures up 130 the dollar seeing strength, but still hovering around 111.86, against the dollar. i am yvonne man in hong kong. ramy: and i am ramy inocencio in new york. let's head to the car market. they beat estimates, but it was not all good news. general motors warned the second half will be tougher for both -- both protection and earnings -- production and earnings. we will key end with a senior nds.com as well as edmu chief analyst. let's unpack what is been happening with gm. as we were talking in the last hour, not a robust picture. is there any positive we can take apart from this. the risks on the

the head of bank of america and merrill lynch. interesting stuff in there. you can go back and find that on tv , a great function. just scroll back on the bottom of the screen. the president has said, talking with the periphery, that an election is unlikely. speaking to bloomberg markets, canada, sergio much relevant also appealed for a new law to be revealed before the vote, which he sees taking place in february and the start of spring next year. the natural and for the legislation is in figuring 2018 therefore, the foreseeable eight would be between the month of february and early spring. democracy, there may be conditions for early elections, but for the time being, we have no such signals. and therefore, it's likely for legislation to expire naturally. >> can italy vote even without a change in electoral law? naturally, after a five-year term, we do have to go vote with the current conditions. we can extend of chambers of parliament the on their term and i do hope that in the upcoming months left for the current parliamen

james barty from merrill lynch, james bevan from ccla investment management.y really do, james, underscore the dilemma facing boe policymakers. >> if you look at the employment numbers, perhaps the bank of england should be raising rates. you look at the wage inflation numbers and say, if you've only got 2%, the bank of england is not exceeding its inflation target over the medium term. jobless claims have not been up for a few months in a row. the rate of growth is slow. can the strength of those employment gains be sustained going forward? to my mind, ben broadbent is right. the bank of england should be forward-looking. the rise in inflation is squeezing real wages, slowing the economy down, and as long as wage inflation doesn't pick up, the bank of england will be hitting their target. ork: are you a broadbentite are you going to go for the hawks? >> i think you can make a very good case why we need a rate hike relatively early. ,here is a broad expectation somehow the consumer benefits. the consumer is still paying 6% or 7% to borrow money. a very signifi

strategy at the bank of america merrill lynch joining us.big focus and don't only is going to be janet yellen again? >> unfortunately, i may have to tell you that because it has been an issue of interest rate markets, bond market driving a bit of the dollar. over the past two weeks we have been seeing a steepening of the u.s. on terror and the aging --ves provide some rashaad: only about the bond rout, does that make people perhaps a bit more inclined to invest in u.s. treasuries that yields have gone up or do they wait and see what happens next? >> i think it does left a little bit of the desirability to invest in u.s. trade. what has been correlating very closely with asian currencies has been 10 year u.s. term premium and that has been a gauge of how much investors investing inm of bonds. the yield they require. obviously it has been negative negative.s. but that discount that investors are willing to take has been reduced to other than that -- i would be watching tomorrow's bond auction in indonesia. they'll be a gauge if investors are w

blanch, global head of commodities research at merrill lynch.e details to be significant? francisco: maybe. it is hard to say. opec does not have good options here. and nigeria will give a little bit of comfort, but certainly in the fact that ecuador has pulled out of the deal already, the fact that iraq is planning to increase production, all of these issues will weigh heavily on members. alix: the rumor was perhaps the barrels told cut offset what they are getting from libya. are they ready to sacrifice that kind of market share in order to beef up revenue? francisco: here is opec's biggest challenge. for the cartel to impact prices, it takes them three to five quarters. meanwhile, for sale supply to respond to prices, it is about three to five quarters. so to your point, if you cap reallyion here, you are affecting market shares and about six months. you can try it, but what will happen to your supplies? going toeeper is only be sending money from the middle east out to texas, to west texas. jonathan: that is the fundamentals. talk to me abou

and lot of them collapsed, we had banks that collapsed, we lost a lot of players, but jpmorgan, merrill lynchour collapse or's are still there any way, but europe has thrown a lot. vonnie: plus, but it three's -- credit suisse remaining because even though he is delivering on some of what he has promised, including some of the bad bank together and also winding its down bit by bit, but equity trading was down by one third, a third of what it had been. what is going on with credit suisse and can we blame regulation or anything like that for their performance? >> they have rules they have lamented after the crisis, but the u.s. is not that far behind. switzerlandk., and came up with tougher stock. the rest of europe did not go as far, the capital spenders -- but switzerland, they realized the government and regulators realized that the banks were so big, multiple times of their gdp, 10 times of their gdp. so they did not want to have too much of that risk. they raided in, and the swiss banks have been shrinking -- rained it in, and the swiss banks have been shrinking. vonnie: next, we will be s

contribute to their 401(k) faster than older folks according to a new report by bank of america and merrill lynch. 82% of millennials are contributing to their plans compared to just 37% of generation x and 75% of baby boomers. if you leave your phone in an uber you can get it back for $15. the driver will bring it back for you it is one of the uber's recent efforts to make last month they started allowing tips through the app. >>> a viral video involving a shark. a shark being dragged behind the boat being led to an animal cruelty investigation in florida. this is a 10 second clip it was on instagram it shows a group of guys dragging the captured shark. people in the boat are laughing as the shark gets dragged to its death.>> it can't breathe it would be like dragging you underwater. how long would you survive? not very long. they would be happy to drag the shark and torture it. >> investigators will have to determine who was on the boat and where the video was taken. >>> rex tillerson says he is taking little time off not resigning the comment comes amid reports that he may step down from the p

the head of g10 fx at merrill lynch. there's a new french enlightenment.resident emmanuel macron aims to revise france's creativity and leadership on the global stage. we bring you the very latest from the heart of europe. we are live in paris. ♪ matt: 1:30 a.m. in new york. manus: you might be out till rating the fourth of july area -- july. index 9%,erg dollar that is the state of play. happy fourth of july. how are those markets looking? u.s. markets are closed. japan, hong kong, korea higher. here the breakdown of industry groups them a a top -- i.t. and tech stocks leading. energy stocks gaining. gain in financials but not enough to miss the overall benchmark. -- lift the overall benchmark. the aussie dollar is being watched closely falling now, erasing earlier gains after the rba left its benchmark rate unchanged area that would -- was not the surprise. -- turns a hawkish term that was expected in the markets. perhaps following the global central banks. we did get a statement similar to last time. we are at 70 .06. we have seen it rise to a five-week

ability, but is the etf business getting too big is this repor strategists at bank of america merrill lynch, index investing strategies now account for 37% of all stock fund assets held in america. that's nearly double what they had back in 2009. looking for another sign of just how big passive investing strategies have become? index pioneer now owns at least 5% stakes in 491 of the s&p 500 companies. what's more, vanguard now owns about 7% of the entire value of the s&p 500. back in 2010, it was only half that amount. all trading volume in the united states, so, with so much money tied up in etfs and other index related veinvestments, the are concerns t experi more volatility in times of stress as many could look to sell the same investments at the same time. index relating investing has slew of benefits for the investing public and has been advocating by managers an warren buffett himself for years, but could there be unintended consequences down the line because of it? time will . for "nightly business report", i'm dominic chu. >> to the economy now where american businesses did not crea

merrill lynch co chairmen he was imperious he was arrogance he was. get a you know he. out nancy reagan said of him famously that he liked the. the sound of chief but not the sound of staff so much. you it's a crucial job you have to have. you have to be at the ultimate diplomat to to juggle all of these competing power centers. and you can't just be start commanding people and and and barking out orders at the it doesn't work that wa. chris whittle thank you so much for joining us. thank you for having me. what is the white house wants to establish order is facing two major foreign policy challenges? this weekend the kremlin ordered the last account its diplomatic staff in moscow by seven hundred and fifty five people. or by sixty percent. many of those like i will be russians working for the u. s. but it sends a signal as tensions grow between the two countries. when it comes to north korea second test of an intercontinental ballistic missile within a month. today president trump said it will be handled by how. we've got a guy discussed both issues with former congres

so we have the results i have been building this model the last four years since i left merrill lynchoke as financial trainers, if we are not doing our job, first ones to tell you to cut this expense. we feel like everybody could be a gym member. >> does this mean i get personal service, how much of this, is there a robo element >> you're more than welcome to use the robo we send clients to those they're great for one part of your financial life. talking about your question, there are so many websites and apps but only solve one part of the problem. betterment helps with investsing, mint helps you with budgeting. they all figure out one part of the problem. we figure out the whole puzzle, put it dogt. it is a human being. we have one location in manhattan, work with people virtually as well. you have a physical human being who knows your problems, knows your challenges. and is available to you. >> you could bike and talk at the same time. >> talk about the budget. >> quite a coincidence if i called her on the one time i was on that thing in the last four months could you give me all o

devalier, the head of economics for bank of america-merrill lynch.pick up speed in the u.s.. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ -- betty: this is "daybreak: asia." yvonne: it has been a busy week of earnings around the globe. checking on nissan in tokyo. there are down 4.2% this morning after first quarter profit was hit i higher spending on incentives in the u.s.. one ofest, here we have our analysts. it is hitting the carmakers hard in asia. continuethink we will to see that for the remainder of the year. u.s. sales have dipped quite a the 2014-2015 level. know, gm this week reported earnings as well, and they are cautious about the second half. yvonne: and you see any kind of relief at all this year? steve: i do not, i see incentives increasing. thatentioned later incentives will likely increase because inventories are relatively high, and at the same usually in north america, september is usually the model change. they will have to clear some of that inventory before they bring in the new product. we will see an increase in incentives for the remainder of th

he did the black rock merrill lynch deal. he has done us a some major financial transactions. when he left he was have of the wealth management unit. it puts him in contact with billionaires across the globe. i would not be surprised if he have a chinese guy he does business in china. that is my one caveat to this thing. he has done that. are they perhaps near or reaching that a bit. they don't have the money as of now to compete with jorge maas' bid. the major league commissioner said that all three of them in the bids have met what he termed the asking price. there you are. didn't they judge at 1.3. maybe it's 1.1 and now he has that at the highest at one point. this is a moving target. i had been given pretty good assurance that the guy they really want to buy is with the deepest pockets. they have local connections. his father was very big into cuban refugee community opposition. he seems to have the inside track. anything is possible. and i think my guess is that we will hear something about this during the all-star game. >> i wanted to go to the all-star game. i was orde

we discussed that with bank of america merrill lynch is helen child.loomberg. ♪ rishaad: you are back with bloomberg markets. i am rishaad salamat in hong kong. haidi: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. giant has soldt its stake in sydney's only casino. says it has been selling off shares since july and has ceased to hold any interest in star entertainment. rishaad: pimco reporting its biggest quarterly increase in assets since bill gross left. second biggest u.s. fixed income manager jumping to $1.61 trillion, assets at $2 trillion in the first quarter before concerns about rising interest rates led to some withdrawals. hong kong's reputation as say financial leader damage by rising market misconduct. to insider trading and market manipulation have doubled since 2011. the soc says the recent sudden plunge in at least a dozen stocks highlights that problem. china's leaders are gathering in beijing to kick off the two day national were conference, a meeting that happens every five years and is designed to improve the country's giganti

trade flows when it comes to crude oil, the head of commodities and research at bank of america merrill lynch he had to say about opec and non-opec attending to rebalance global inventory. >> here is opec's this challenge. thempact prices, it takes three to five quarters. for sale supply to respond to prices, it is about three to five quarters. while opec is peddling backwards, show is peddling forward. -- shale is telling forward. you are lowering a market share because you know shale will make up the extra supply. you can try it, but look what happened to u.s. supply. toting deeper is only going be sending money from the middle east out to texas, to west texas. >> that is the fundamentals. talk about the collapse in sentiment. most mornings of the last couple of weeks we've woken up to another bank with another note, a bullish view and then capitulating. we have this average view, $64 billion. everyone's coalescing around nothing of unity year. is it important that the bullish attitude is come around the south side? >> the point of maximum bullishness was february. why? we were looking at t

. >> it is a pleasure to be joined by the bank of america-merrill lynch global m&a chairman. you have been in this capacity firs -- for about 18 years. give me a couple of trends. differe about how things today in the m&a landscape than a few years ago. >> 18 years. time flies when you're having fun. i can think of a few major trends over that time. the market is rewarding growth via m&a. it is not always the case. sometimes you announce a transaction and the price goes up. you announce a good, well structured, strategic deal, stock prices follow the acquire. number two is how m&a deals are being made. completelybe a board-centric process. but itrd is still key, is becoming more shareholder-centric. in the days we didn't like what was going on in a company -- amber three, this u.s. is good destination. for the last year and a half i've worked on deals with blue-chip is coming to the u.s. lastly, hostile transactions versus friendly. friendly are much more en vogue. we look at the biggest 25 unsolicited transactions over the last three years. only four were successful. alex: l

he was an m&a investment banker for merrill lynch.s an interesting perspective from all of these angles. he is one of the major pushers of this idea that they are too big. academics have started looking at this. there are several studies showing that it is not that consumers are not benefiting. the issue is that this bigness is leading to things like inequality in wages, low productivity, the lack of startups. oliver: some answers to a lot of economic questions people have. paula: these are questions economists are asking all the time. what is productivity growth so slow? what's the matter with our economy? all of those roads are leading to amazon, facebook and google. carol: speaking of ambitious technology companies, alibaba wants to build china's sports industry. >> we are making a stronger flavor than anyone in the chinese market has to develop a sports industry that has been underrepresented in china. oliver: alibaba does not seem like they need to seek out new revenue sources yet. i guess it never hurts to give expanding. i wond

broker dealer prior to joining the bank he served as during senior economist at bank of america merrill lynch, also the venezuelan budget office and i'm thrilled that frances is here because he really has his fingers on the economic situation in venezuela. also the executive director for the center for justice and peace in venezuela with the human rights violations and provide legal counsel to many of the people who are being held hostage by the government. special focus on women's rights. she previously worked in venezuela where she researched human rights protection. also got up at 2:00 in the morning to be able to come here from venezuela because the fact the middle of the night makes it more likely they will leave the country. thank you for doing that. our moderator today is the u.s. news direct your tree and five -- director gustau alegret. he served as minister of commerce and tourism and has mentioned the outside. we are also thankful for his team for the partnership in our venezuela after by a whole host of other things. i would like to welcome our three panelists to the stage. [appla

microsoft also getting a pop after bank of america-merrill lynch raises their price target.habet turning slightly lower. earlier the stock had been higher. it will be interesting to see what happens here. all of this of course plays into the fact that the tech pullback has all but disappeared. if we pop into the bloomberg and take a look at this, this is a year to date chart of the nasdaq in blue. the 50-day moving average rising, telling us that the buyers are in control. we did have that period of bumpiness and it charted out as something that could be called a diamond top, a period of uncertainty up and down. other analysts out there were looking at this as a head and shoulders pattern. relative to the diamond top. it did initially break down into a lower level. now higher. the question is whether or not there's a pullback that will then result in another move down or if we're on the way to all-time highs. time will tell, of course. but if we take a look at another chart in the bloomberg of the s&p 500, this chart may suggest that there could be some more volatility ahead

what brings us to the idea of the big banks, and brokerages like morgan stanley in merrill lynch, wellsthey are recognizing they need to have this channel. ultimately all the people with the money will die out. there kids get the money. a lot of these kids are more used to direct additional channels than dealing with people at the table. they know they need to create this channel. that is what the are doing, making their own robo-advisors. oliver: what is behind the world's best performing stock? carol: and a covering the truth of -- and uncovering the truth the mysterious hijacking of a $100 million oil tanker. ♪ oliver: welcome back to "bloomberg businessweek." carol: the hygiene cake -- of the oil tanker. carol: the showdown of five-star mega-hotels in london. oliver: all of that up ahead in "bloomberg businessweek." ♪ oliver: we're back with "bloomberg businessweek" editor in chief megan murphy to talk about more must reads in the magazine. let's go to the finance section, tell us about this hungarian company. megan: it is a big one. best performing stuck in the world. it only has s

jpmorgan upgraded it to neutral from underperforming then today, bank of america, merrill lynch upgraded to neutral. where have theybeen for the last year? boeing reports next week my sense is that the numbers will be great. valuations are neutral honey well, for the last five year, we want to own honeywell and not general electric, that plays out as well. >> you buy here at record highs or wait for the earpings release? >> if you haven't bought anything, i think we have places to go. i'm not who's going to buy somebody b with fresh money at a high for me, i'd like for things that are going to break out the fwi's point about the names we've put out there, they're all multinationals we have a weak dollar, lower interest rates than a week ago, so those are all positive for the stock market so if you're concerned about your portfolio look for a reversal in those it's not >> i think it's difficult just to run out and buy and index and say i want to expose it to an index. you have to go stock by stock. it's really understanding the story and the set up on the street so i say we knew netflix w

obviously that's created a -- merrill lynch. obviously that's created a great deal of uncertainty. the american bar association task force estimates that as many as 40% of small businesses raising money actually use finders anyway. because it hasn't been made explicitly illegal. do ou see any openness or you personally think that that issue should be revisited and try to clarify the rules and allow internet and small finders to not have to register as a broker dealer? michael: yes. this is an issue that's been brought to our attention i think almost every year by an advisory committee on small and emerging companies. by the small business -- government small business forum and by a number of other folks on this. as i mentioned, we now finally have a chairman who is committed to looking at capital formation issues and putting it squarely on the front burner in term of our agenda going forward. this is an issue that i would like to see. there are some folks that -- we had in prior leadership at the s.e.c. there were folk that said, well, we believe everyone is born a broker dealer un

take a look at this, according to bank of america, merrill lynch, if you look at the stocks, where vanguardig investor funds out there in the world, the number of stocks that they have a huge position in. today in current markets, about 491 members of the s&p 500 count vanguard as a five-plus percent shareholder. that's how many people are investing in index funds in how much money they are putting to work in buying some of the biggest companies in america remember, back in 2010, it was about less than a quarter of stocks in the s&p 500 where vanguard had a 5% stake. take a look at some of the other pictures here in terms of market cap overall. with eve gotten to a point where back in 2010 vanguard held a 3.3% stake in terms of the overall market cap of the s&p 500. today it's more than double that, almost 7% of the entire market cap is owned by vanguard just to give you another indication of how big the index funds are and vanguard is one of them, by the way take a look at some of the client flows, bank of america, merrill lynch's own clients in aggregate and what they have done with regar

with the bankned of america merrill lynch head of u.s. strategy.m. >> thank you. >> give us your take on what we should look forward to in the next six months? >> our view for the next six months? can i tell you argue for the next six days? >> sure. >> area. right now, today is the first quarter.e each quarter, being crowded and overweight by investors, today that would be high-growth tech. whatever ends up being crowded by the end of the quarter tends to get slammed in the beginning of the next quarter. for the near term, stay away from high-growth tech. that is where we see the largest positioning risk. for the next six months, where i see a big opportunity, where a lot of the positives have not been priced in, are two sectors, financials and health care. speaking of health care reform, whatever we get, to replace obamacare will probably look something like obamacare to begin with. we think the risks within the health care sector from simply reform are probably overstated in the multiples. if you look at health care now, it is trading in the lowe

according to bank of america merrill lynch survey. the successful if the u.s.the most overvalued region. that is your bloomberg business flash. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: a drop off in trading -- me not hurting line is500, the yellow the 20 day moving average of u.s. comps it volume. as he got to the end of the nonholiday session this year. we have seen this over and over we have seen here back in february of 2016, as dust or cover and make new highs. that has pretty much been the case so far this year. this is where it gets particular. this year it was a lot lower than it was in 2016. record highs in u.s. stocks are coveted by lack of conviction, maybe apathy? or is this just how things go? joe: why bother trading when the best reggie is to buy stocks and go to the beach, exactly right? here's one thing investors are little concerned about. i am looking at very short premiums and very short-term u.s. debt. this is something you do not see often. debtedline's government expire in october and the white line is up -- november. the red line is hi

prior to joining he served as director and senior bank of america, merrill lynch. he was director of the venezuelan congressional budget office and he has his fingers on the pulse of the economic situation of venezuela. also we have the direct executive director for justice and peace and works to document counsel to many of the people who are being held hostage by the government. special focus on women's right and works in venezuela where she researched human rights protection. also got up at 2:00 o'clock in the morning to be able to come here from venezuela because the flight out in the middle of the night makes it more likely that you will leave the country. thank you for doing that. our moderator is the new it u.s. new structure who has over 20 years experience working communications covering commute campaigns in the u.s. and spain. served in commerce and were also thankful for the team for the partnership in our venezuela effort tracker and a host of other things. and i welcome you all to the stage. thank you. [applause] >> i thank you for coming. thank you for

division to put them on par, in my opinion, with a morgan stanley, with a bank of america, with a merrill lynch, to put them on par with the traders and investment bankers >> i think the investment banking division is where the future of the industry is going to be. >> i said investment management. maybe i twisted my words i mean the investment management division, which is smaller compared to morgan stanley by a lot >> yeah, it is obviously morgan stanley made a major, major play in that area the whole company took a bet on investment management, wealth management, and it is paying off in a major fashion but i'm a believer in investment banking. i think investment banking is where the future is for the financial services industry and i think the investment bankers should be running that company >> what i'd say to dick and to jim is that clearly, dick, your comments put a target on mr. blankfein's back i think that there will be a target on the people who ran fixed income commodities trading, currencies, and all the rest at goldman sachs. i don't think this takes down lloyd. i think one of the

we're talking to paul ciana from bank of america merrill lynch as well he'll tell us why he thinks theollar decline is done that's at the top of the hour. >> thanks so much. what do we think freepo freeport materials? minors now the time >> well, for a balance for a trade. for a quick trade. for more of a longer term investment i think it's more of a prove it story that's got to come over multiple >> they keep building more capacity in that you don't want to be in commodity when on stream >> up next, chipotle, boeing, caol fd,co-ca,or mazon plus final trades when we come back hey gary, what'd you got here? this bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade to keep our community safe. before you do any project big or small, pg&e will come out and mark your gas and electric lines so you don't hit them when you dig. cal

prior to joining the bank he served as the director and senior and economist at bank of america merrill lynch. he was a director of the venezuelan congressional budget office and i'm thrilled francisco should because he really has his fingers on the pulse of economic situation in venezuela. that also beatriz borges whose executive director of the center for justice and peace in venezuela that works a document human rights violations and provide legal counsel to many of the people who are being held hostage by the government. share special focus on women's rights. she previously worked at the university in venezuela where she researched human rights, protection mechanisms. she also got up at 2:00 in the morning to be able to come here from venezuela because of the fact that flight out in the middle of the night makes it more likely they will actually let you leave the country. so thank you very much, beatriz, for doing that. and our moderator today is the use news director for -- covering political campaigns in the united states and in spain. he served as administer of commerce and tourism and

prior to joining he served as director and senior bank of america, merrill lynch. he was director of the venezuelan congressional budget office and he has his fingers on the pulse of the economic situation of venezuela. also we have the direct executive director for justice and peace and works to document counsel to many of the people who are being held hostage by the government. special focus on women's right and works in venezuela where she researched human rights protection. also got up at 2:00 o'clock in the morning to be able to come here from venezuela because the flight out in the middle of the night makes it more likely that you will leave the country. thank you for doing that. our moderator is the new it u.s. new structure who has over 20 years experience working communications covering commute campaigns in the u.s. and spain. served in commerce and were also thankful for the team for the partnership in our venezuela effort tracker and a host of other things. and i welcome you all to the stage. thank you. [applause] >> i thank you for coming. thank you for

. >> a merrill lynch fund manager survey said that rates have to go to 3.5 to 4 before you get a bear market in stocks. >> i think that's right. i mean, i would say a little bit -- >> depends on how we get there, exactly. the speed we get there but ultimately in a 3.5 or 4% environment, what are stocks doing? what's gdp doing do you have nominal gdp at 5% in that environment >> that's a great point. >> if you have a 3.5 to 4% tenure, real rates are going to be with a 2% inflation rate right where gdp will be doing. >> let's get kevin o'leary's point of view on this? what we're talking about with rates and mr. gundlach is saying, as well. >> first of all, steve's thinking 3.5 to 5% gdp, he's talking about another planet it's not the planet earth. >> no, nominal nominal, my friend, kevin. >> the chance of that is zero. zero and i'll tell you why -- >> no, kevin, it's nominal -- >> the amount of regulation at the municipal and state level is horrific you can't open a restaurant, that's 15 jobs you can't create. it's never going to happen i'll just leave that point but if we're worried ab

according to this bank of america, merrill lynch survey, they are 20% underweight.80% of investors believe that the u.s. is the most overvalued region. interesting. that is your business flash update. julie: coming up, we will turn our focus back to the market as the nasdaq and s&p 500 hit all-time highs, the dow is there as well today. they are all getting boosts from earnings reports, and qualcomm set to report their earnings after the training. more on that and what it you miss -- in what did you miss a bit later. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg markets, i'm julie hyman. scarlet: and i'm scarlet fu. let's get him inside on what is driving equities as the nasdaq and s&p 500 climbed to record highs yet again. >> it is earnings season, and we look at what the market has done. this is ultimately what it comes down to. here are a few things that will be really important. let's start with some of the sectors, because these are big ones. financial and tax.

this is the merrill lynch market risk indicator across market for most ofated 2016, but now dipping. right background for the fed to progress in a steady manner. not a lot of reaction in the market right now. for more analysis, let's bring in ian lyngen. he's been raided a top u.s. rate strategist multiple times by institutional investors. a top u.s. rate strategist multiple times by institutional investors. consensus is still for september. anything in this that you think perhaps gives a shift to that? n: the consensus is still for a september tapering. the more divided the committee appears to be, the more dovish the minutes will ultimately be interpreted as. build consensus internally, and will be much harder to deliver the combination of a taper and a rate hike by the end of the year. julia: the optionality makes sense. we have a debt ceiling debate coming come a budget debate coming. who knows what happens with health care. the fed is leaving the option open. ian: that makes a great deal of sense. they've done a masterful job of pricing in a tapering later this year. they will w

and there is an interesting note out from bank of america merrill lynch, who is not very optimistic on the s&p this year, talking about income inequality, pointing out more hours are needed now to buy one unit of the s&p 500, 110 hours, in fact. so that is at a record high here . that is less attainable for particularly low income workers to get to that kind of lone where they can invest in the stock market. interesting observation here. that is also one reason why we need to clamp down on that level of inequality and might be more aggressive next year. at thealso looking nasdaq, which is lagging the other industries. it is down, not by much, but a few tenths of 1%. on june 8,cord was and it is falling the most in the nasdaq over the past month, we have those big down movers like costco and tesla that have been holding it back. o'reilly automotive is also on that list, along with the auto parts makers and retailers and salon has been pulling back after an impressive run going up to that. i wanted to point out as well we have some news out in the past five minutes or so that the ceo of

the big laggards are telecom of 1%, andby 6/10 that is after bank of america merrill lynch downgraded neutral. that is one drag on the major indexes. in terms of individual movers, neil gorsuch, the steelmaker -- nucor, the steelmaker, finishing at a high since early may. jumping after president trump saying he is considering both quotas and tariffs on steel imports. it said sales would likely increase this quarter, so that increases in earlier forecast for decline. tiffany coming up with a plan to it, asesel, the head of its next ceo. delta off while most a dollar, the worst since may 30. ahead at what is coming tomorrow, you can see the banks that gained, all three of them will be reporting earnings tomorrow before the bell. we will be breaking out for you in daybreak: america. joe: as the government bond market yields higher today, note that yields dropped yesterday when a gallon testimony came out and said that they were still concerned about inflation, yellen talking as yesterday -- less yesterday about asset prices, more about the lack of inflation. nothing too new from yellen t

actually, bank of america and merrill lynch looked at online multiples versus retail brick and mortar multiples that's a spread. it's never been wider. so this is obviously the consensus bet that if you sell any kind of product, you've got to figure out a relationship with amazon and good luck preserving whatever margins you thought you might maintain in your own stores and online to mario's point, this is the creation destruction impulse of capitalism. >> isn't there a lot of truth to what you said? >> yes. >> if you can't beat them, join them. >> we talked about nike. i'm not going to go crazy here nike had people selling the shoes where they were not economically benefitting resellers, it looked terrible, a sloppy mess on the page, et cetera, and eventually nike said, you know what, we're going to sell on amazon. we're going to do it our way we're going to clean up the resellers on there we're going to put fresh product. we're going to control what it looks like on the page maybe they don't make as much money as they would on their own app, but at the end of the day get the product

they came out with revenue and earnings that beat estimates, and bank of america merrill lynch upgradinghe stock, saying that its penetration in the global orthodontic market can grow. mohawk industries is the maker of flooring. that company's forecast above what analysts have been anticipating. expedia, the online travel second quarter results coming in, topping one year ago results. analysts are saying the company's investments in its like him wayoducts and strabo paying off. and rockwell collins beating sales as well, on the sale of improving business jet revenue. we have some decliners on the earnings front as well. they are outweighing the gains in the s&p and the nasdaq. the maker of industrial flow equipment, that company forecasting earnings below estimates. goodyear tires missing estimate, seeing higher prices among competitive pressures. starbucks missed sales estimates, closing down its team on a chain, and the mattel numbers are disappointing as well. not telling as many american girl and thomas toys. we will dig into mattel later in the show, julia. julia.thank you, washingt

adopted the policy that they should register as a broker dealer and the fact they choose the same as merrill lynch. obviously a great deal of regulatory uncertainty because the american bar association task force has as many as 40% of small businesses because it hasn't been made exclusively all equal. do you see any openness or do you personally think that issue should be revisited and try to clarify the rules and allow intermittent small finders to not have to register as a broker dealer? >> yes. this is an issue brought to her attention almost every year by her committee on smaller emerging companies and the small business forum and folks on this. we now finally have a chairman that is committed to looking at capital formation issues and putting it squarely on the front burner in terms of our agenda going forward. this is an issue i would like to see. there are some folks in prior leadership that were focused and we believe everyone is born until they prove us otherwise. that's sort of what it is. but we need to have a space for finders to do their job and it's particularly important for capital

adopted the policy that they should register as a broker dealer and the fact they choose the same as merrill lynch. obviously a great deal of regulatory uncertainty because the american bar association task force has as many as 40% of small businesses because it hasn't been made exclusively all equal. do you see any openness or do you personally think that issue should be revisited and try to clarify the rules and allow intermittent small finders to not have to register as appropriate? >> yes. this is an issue brought to her attention almost every year by her committee on smaller emerging companies and the small business forum and folks on this. we now finally have a chairman that is committed to looking at capital formation issues and putting it squarely on the front burner in terms of our agenda going forward. this is an issue i would like to see. there are some folks in prior leadership that were focused and we believe everyone is born until they prove us otherwise. that's sort of what it is. but we need to have a space for finders to do their job and it's particularly important for capital for