on the flipside, bank of america merrill lynch -- they say it is not crazy.e and the fact it could fall to $30 a barrel. they are thinking president trump may decide to raise tariffs. like what he hears out of the g20. that may mean chinese authorities may allow the yuan to weaken. that, will the chinese start importing crude from iran? they could see oil potentially at $30 a barrel. interesting which report you want to look at. you have to look at it all, haven't you? coming up, putting the trade war on ice. bloomberg sources say the u.s. set to delay the next round of china tariffs. this is bloomberg. >>>> it is 7:21 a.m. in london. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. >> i am manus cranny and dubai. bloomberg sources, we have been speaking to everybody. the u.s. is it willing to suspend the next round of tariffs in the next round of tariffs. my question of the day is straightforward. a globalvitable currency war will begin. what is a modern currency war anyway? doyle.sk catherine trump likes to job own the dollar. it has had a magnificent run. what would a

next, bank of america and merrill lynch. how the trade war bull affect markets. bloomberg. ♪ daybreak asia. paul: looking stronger amidst signs of stockpiles and concerns of rising tensions in the gulf. at bank oflanch america and merrill lynch. today, he is joining us from singapore. let's kick off with oil. maybe we are heading up from here. let's have a look at the chart on bloomberg. we have hedge funds bidding on a rebound. golf, tradethe concerns as well. you actually have a modest price increase in your outlook, correct? >> we think the second half of , mid to high 50's, so maybe not much of a change, but really, what is going on in oil are risks on both ends of the market. one is related to the ongoing trade war and the other is around the risk of a war with , and in the meantime, it is about to trigger next week with the organization trying to restrain output. we will also see the fed cutting rates for the next three months. that will support prices as well. the other thing that will happen, i think president trump is going to be dialing up trade war to

have bank of america, merrill lynch recommending curved flattening trades.see a third day of gains for european equities and u.s. futures pointing to a six day of gains for u.s. equity markets. let's get a bloomberg business flash. annabelle: we start with more allegations of sexual a last-minute -- harassment involving lloyds of london. resigning following accusations of inappropriate behavior. the incident was set -- said to have happened at a party. it came to light after a business week article about endemic sexual misconduct at lloyds. contract toning handsomely in new five g networks according to the chief executive. he says doing well against rivals such as huawei and ericsson. they are trying to push back against concerns it has fallen behind its competitors when it comes to the next generation of technology. compete quite favorably with huawei, with or without the current security concerns. we have taken some 23 contracts with them in the last two years. we win two thirds of the time against our competitor compared to the time they swap us out. we h

appreciate your time ken hoexter from bank of america merrill lynch. >> a quick look at u.s. futures. the european equities are trading with risk-off sentiment. doesn't look like u.s. futures will be different. watch out for a speech from the fed chair powell, that's coming up later today that's it for our show i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm willem marx "worldwide exchange" is up next. fun fact: 1 in 4 of us millennials have debt we might die with. and most of that debt is actually from credit cards. it's just not right. but with sofi, you can get your credit cards right - by consolidating your credit card debt into one monthly payment. you can get your interest rate right - by locking in a fixed low rate today. and you can get your money right. with sofi. check your rate in 2 minutes or less. get a no-fee personal loan up to $100k. the first survivor of ais out there.sease and the alzheimer's association is going to make it happen. but we won't get there without you. visit alz.org to join the fight. for adults with moderately to severely active crohn's disease, stelara® works

bankf america merrill lynch said its clients sent a trickle of new cash each if the market is 4%.n indicator of investor seiment calls the free gear index remains in the fearful zone at 35 on a 0 to 100 scale and the so-called volatility index has necned in recent days as it usually does in a rising market. a sign that traders ctinue to pay up for options that give protection against the market drop over the past month. this persistent caution among investors likely has a lot to do with the confusing economic crosscurrent and the series of crucial events that could swing markets around in coming weeks and the employment report solidifiedxpectations for federal reserve rate cut in coming months and with the fed set to meet next week, plenty of thspense remains over its intentions and wheer a rate cut can support the ecomy and lift inflation should be welcome. une g-20 of world leaders in the end of could be the sight of ati m for president trump and president xi to hammer out a trade deal and the u.s. stands to ready to, tend tariffs to $300 billion inhinese imports around that tim

and then investors are so bearish on stocks it's about time to get bullish says bank of america merrill lynch which is quite odd because of course stock markets are far higher than they were and the lead up to the 20072008 crash and as you point out there is t.j. there's jay clayton jay powell jay powell over the fed but clayton one on a mainstream media recently and claimed that you can't have a b. big coin e.t.f. because you have to solve the manipulation problem jay claim to over at the f.c.c. oversees the the greatest crime spree and market manipulation spree ever in the history of the world he's a racketeer he's basically the john gotti of manipulation and he should be in jail and and punished. severely for everything that they said the l. lot of banks pay constant fines there was just a fine this week paid my $91000000.00 by the forex market riggers so rigging is part of the economy and that's part of the financial market so without broad there would be no stock market is that you can't seize a fish in a fish bowl yes so surrounded by for you can see the fraud bitcoin will get rid of ja

lehman brothers morgan stanley merrill lynch bear stearns j.p. morgan citigroup and so on. the friends extended itself on loans were sought by the public by falsifying their own financial situation on loan applications. therefore the public and banks were complicit committing bank fraud. my name is richard none. i was senior vice president and business chief underwriter for citigroup.

and then investors are so bearish on stocks it's about time to get bullish says bank of america merrill lynch which is quite odd because of course stock markets are far higher than they were and the lead up to the 20072008 crash and as you point out there's t.j. there's jay clayton jay powell jay powell over the fed but clayton one on a mainstream media recently and claimed that you can't have a be big coin e.t.f. because you have to solve the manipulation problem jake claimed to over at the f.c.c. oversees the the greatest crime spree and market manipulation spree ever in the history of the world he's a racketeer he's basically the john gotti of manipulation and he should be in jail and and punished. severely for everything that they said the l. lot of banks pay constant fines there was just a fine this week paid my $91000000.00 by the 4 x. market riggers so rigging is part of the economy and that's part of the financial market so without fraud there would be no stock market is that you can't seize a fish in a fish bowl yes so surrounded by for you can see the fraud bitcoin will get rid of j

and then investors are so bearish on stocks it's about time to get bullish says bank of america merrill lynch which is quite odd because of course stock markets are far higher than they were and the lead up to the 20072008 crash and as you point out there's 2 days there's j. clayton jay powell jay powell over the fed but clayton one on a mainstream media recently and claimed that you can have a big big coin e.t.f. because you have to solve the manipulation problem jake claim to over at the f.c.c. oversees the greatest crime spree and market manipulation spree.

taylor: earlier today we also heard from the ceo of bank of america merrill lynch highlighting leverageds something that could be one of the next catalysts for financial crisis. you also talk about that levels. have we delivered enough since the financial crisis -- de-lever ed enough since the financial crisis? ayhan: prior to the global financial crisis, these economies had lower debt levels and budget surpluses. now they have much larger deficits and much larger debt levels. in an environment of low interest rates, maybe it looks attractive to go out and accumulate debt but there are risks to accumulating debt in a short time period. we basically tell this very simple message. lunch. no free it has consequences and those consequences present themselves when you need the financial markets the most. a persistent shortfall in total aggregate manned. trying to figure out how we can get more businesses to invest more money, create more demand, activity. after 10 years, there is a perception that traditional central bank are not as effective as may be something having to do with the zero low

bank of america merrill lynch head of japan economics, izumi devalier, joining us from our tokyo bureaure half an hour away from the start of cash trade in tokyo. sophie, what is on the radar? we have the cpi numbers come again. what are you watching -- cpi numbers, yen. what are you watching? a five recent gains near month high, barely budging after the latest inflation data which did show cpi slipped in maine, adding pressure on the boj. the central bank's task is getting trickier. after the year jay, kuroda signaled flexibility amid sinking outlook. way more on investors -- that could weigh more on investors. riskierld return to assets. ri -- postal and aggr we have seen a decline for the topix index for things over the course of this year. paul. thanks very much. let's check in on the first word news with ed ludlow. ed. ed: president trump is downplaying iran's claimed a taxonomy be drawn in the gulf, saying a single person acting alone may have been responsible for the strike. tehran says the aircraft was an iranian airspace and the shooting is intended to send a clear message to w

taylor: bank of america merrill lynch analysts this morning said that long-term it could be good forhe evaluation of companies like alphabet and google if they were broken up. what is the case to be made that this is a good thing? >> that is exactly the correct question. we saw what is arguably one of the worst days for these technology firms in along time. they shed tens of millions of dollars today. if you look empirically at what happens, either doing a spin like ebay did with paypal or what happened to the telco companies after they were broken up, and almost every instance in the medium and long term, the aggregate value of the spun companies is much greater than the original conglomerate. this might actually be a buying opportunity. what do you think the president is here to look at? you think it is finds we might see, or do we look more toward perhaps trying to change the business model as the eu has potentially done but really just tinkering on the edges. what do you actually think congress could really pass that might turn into some realistic regulation? >> there are fine, -

right, bank of america merrill lynch head of you echo equity and strategy, savita subramanian.nk you for joining us. cling lam continues to what analysts have called an impossible job after hong kong's historic protests. we will get the latest from the city center in a moment. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ i don't know why i didn't get screened a long time ago. i kept putting it off... what was i thinking? ok, mr. jones... we're all done. i told you it was easy. with life line screening, getting screened for unknown health conditions is so quick, painless and affordable, you'll wonder why you hadn't done it before. so if you're over age 50, call now and schedule an appointment near you. for just $149- a savings of over 50%- you'll receive a package of five screenings that go beyond your doctor's annual check-up. ultrasound technology looks inside your arteries for plaque that builds up as you age and increases your risk of stroke and heart disease. after all, 4 out of 5 people who have a stroke, their first symptom is a stroke. so call today and start with a free health as

four innocent merrill-lynch executives who spent a year in prison because of him and that was overturned. thousands of andersen accounting americans losing their jobs because of weissmann losing 9-0 in the supreme court. it's close to crystal clear the hillary-loving bureaucrat played a central role in the mueller investigation. devin nunes, formerly the chair, of the house intel committee, now the ranking member, is calling the report a total fraud. and former fbi official kevin brock wrote that the government behaved like a bully. i guarantee today's discovery is only the tip of the iceberg. that's not stopping the outright delusion inside of the radical extreme new democratic socialist party. they don't care about the truthd their political blood lust is that strong. congressman nadler to james claybern, top democrats everywhere, openly advocating for impeachment, over what? none of them have been abe to give a reason for why trump should be impeached exceptpt collusion. we had four exonerations at this point. four separate investigations, the fbi investigation, house intel investigat

lehman brothers organ stanley merrill lynch their sterns j.p. morgan citigroup and so on. the friends extended itself the loans were sought by the public by falsifying their own financial situation on loan applications. therefore the public and banks were complicit committing bank fraud. my name is richard on. i was senior vice president and business chief underwriters for citigroup. at the time citi group was the largest bank and. it was my responsibility to make sure that the $90000000000.00 a year that we were purchasing were going to loans that were originally aided by other banks and mortgage companies these map our policy standards. in early 2006. i discovered that over 60 percent of these mortgages did not meet our guidelines they were by definition defective when i discovered this in this was june of 2006. silly me i thought it was my job i started issuing warnings because i was supposed to make sure that these met our policy guidelines. and i sent an e-mail i put it in my weekly report i made committee presentations i mean i'm not a shy guy i cornered people in th

bank of america merrill lynch analyst says if a deal is struck, the s&p could sail over the 3100 mark but if president trump doesn't like the tone of talks and perhaps slaps new tariffs on more chinese goods and materials, the broader index could drop 5%. that would equal roughly 150 points from where we are right now. >>> and there is late-breaking news from osaka. a trade deal could be on the verge of being struck, but it's not between the u.s. and china. we will take you there for the up to the minute developments. china, a big topic during last night's democratic presidential debate. hear what some of the 2020 candidates have to say about the way president trump is dealing with the trade tensions. >>> we've got silicon valley legend t.j. rodgers and craig allen here, exclusively, both of them, to game tonight's epic showdown. on this final trading day of the week, the month, the quarter, yeah, forget what charles said, thin gains. we're holding on to ground here as financials and energy stocks lead the street higher but it is the small cap russell 2000 index that is about to pull

grad school, they started their lives and their family abroad, naji as an investment banker at merrill lynch for naji, the pull of home was strong. naji: oh, it was so beautiful. i mean, for me, 17 years living overseas, coming back here and planting my grandfather's land. lemonis: it was awesome. naji: it was awesome. yeah. lemonis: in 1860, naji's great-grandfather built hotel belle-vue, the winery's namesake and his childhood home. naji: it was impeccable. it was known to be the most beautiful hotel in mount lebanon at the time. lemonis: and what else was around? naji: well, it was basically homes like this and vineyards everywhere, everywhere you look up in the mountains. all these hills were vineyards. lemonis: bhamdoun was known throughout the middle east as the place to vacation... until the civil war. tourists were replaced by militias. in one battle, some 300 people in this small village were massacred. by 1983, hotel belle-vue, and the place he loved, was destroyed. i was only 9, watching it unfold from 6,000 miles away. i used to have dreams when i was a little boy, and i used to

merrill lynch lowering its brent forecast by $5 to $63 a barrel now, of course, all of this comes onhe heels of the iea report last week that slashed estimates for global crude demand, citing trade war concerns back to you. >> thank you very much >>> a big week in the battle over trade mexico's senate set to ratify the usmca as the white house tries to push the deal through a democrat-led house with us now to discuss what comes next is arturo sarucan, the former mexican ambassador to the united states. welcome. good to have you with us is the usmca likely to pass through the mexican senate without any substantial changes? >> yeah, i think it will it's likely that it will pass even as early as tomorrow. it's already been approved by the respective committees in the senate and in the case of mexico, it doesn't go to the lower house, so if it does get ratified tomorrow, that's it for mexico's part in insuring that the usmca has cleared all the hurdles. >> how, if at all, did the president's threat of putting tariffs on mexican exports into the u.s. to lever mexico's cooperation on immig

guest thinks that it will not be better you're head of quantitative strategy at bank of america merrill lynch welcome back >> good to be here lots going on. >> i've seen equity markets in the ten-year and it looks like maybe not everything has -- but i don't know if that's true. >> you know, it's interesting because i think what's driven the market higher or what's kept itt these levels is not necessarily the success lickal stuff a cyclical stuff and the stock market is singing right along with the bond market and saying don't buy anything with any cyclical hair on it and just buy, like, utilities and tobacco stocks, and i think that that's kind of what's going on internally with the market i think if you look at what's happened so far what was surprising is that we've seen such a repitity and a height edge of the tensions, and what's called into question now is whether we see a full-blown resolution, kind of earlier -- early into this year or whether this extends into next year and turns into an election issue, and i think that the market's response is going to determine that if the market d

bank of america merrill lynch survey says u.s.le at a wrong time again? i brought back rob luna and david nelson to talk about it. david, i watched this survey i always hear on wall street they always diss the individual investor. if they go right you go left, they go up, you go down. i find these big money managers to be wrong every single time. let me tell the audience what they're doing. lowest level since 2009, march of 2009 when it comes to equities. their bond exposure is highest since 2011. cash exposure is the highest since 2011. they're all crowded into treasurys. what the heck is going on here? you would think that, i know they're trying to be prudent but i think they will miss a big rally? >> market timing can be a brutal lesson for not just retail investors but professionals as well. if you trying to trade from your gut, trying to trade a vicious news cycle you're very likely to get caught with your pants down because even if you're successful, you managed to avoid significant decline, what will get you back in? will i

i know people that were offered ceo jobs, larry fink was offered the ceo job essentially at merrill lynchim back in the day. larry fink runs blackrock. i'm just telling you, things change, okay. i can just tell you that there's the broad outlines of a deal. they are progressing towards approval. if they don't walk away, it could be imminent and it's going to be a very interesting -- $26 billion deal, it's big but even more than that, this has national security implications. the trump administration wants this because they want advancement of 5g, which has national security implications over the chinese, and they also want more wireless coverage in rural areas. so this is a big deal for a lot of reasons. it's a landmark deal. lauren: we could get news overnight. >> by the way, i would just say before 10:00 a.m., watch it. see if they sneak it in just to screw the state ag of new york and the other state ags. lauren: charlie, thank you. got to get in some breaking news. biopharmaceutical company retrofin and martin shkreli have reached a settlement, weeks after shkreli sued the company's di

ceo of thornburg asset management, ceo of zoe financial and michelle meyer at bank of america/merrill lynch. welcome, everybody where to start michelle, how much stock do you put in the adp number? >> adp has misled in the past. we have to be careful about that there's been a number of head fakes from it. but, you know, i do think we're potentially due for a softer reading on jobs, given that last month was so strong we had 263,000 jobs created last month. some mean reversion makes sense. we want to look at a moving average in that respect. what we're all really worried about is a confidence shock. how quickly is uncertainty going to pick up in the economy, given the trade escalation how does that feed into the broader economy in will you see companies delay hiring and adding to their workforce because they don't know what the future is around trade >> we've definitely, andres had that shock service number was okay. today was okay listen, i think companies just don't know what to do in this environment, right it's an open ended question. look at the reaction in the two-year yield this morni

and you look at the skew of the ai, bull/bear, again, indicating cautiousness bank of america, merrill lynch has this sentiment reading among pms, 42% of fund managers were overweight cash. the 98th percentile since 2001 our own keith parker says equity positioning is 1.5 standard deviations below average even in this rally, investors are offside. if you get positive news -- >> you get some of this stuff out of the way >> that's correct. >> then you go back to making it pretty simple, and that is fed easing, ecb easing, no more tariffs, economy does well enough, earnings do well enough. you want to be negative against that backdrop? who wants to be negative against that backdrop? >> i'm going to preface my comments by saying i'm about 7% cash, okay but i like to look at the risks the way any nautical person does, you're sailing along, you look at what's on the horizon. you ask, scotty, how do you paint the negative picture there are things out there that trouble me the situation with iran, yes, we didn't bomb them last week, a little surprised by that, but nonetheless, clearly that is rachet

expectations let's bring in jessica, the senior media and entertainment analyst at bank of america merrill lynchout with a new note today on this as well you think disney still has plenty of upside, is that right? >> we do we think there's at least 20% upside in the stock, driven by, of course, films while this film "toy story 4" may have underperformed initial expectations, it's still the best debut of all of the four films in the franchise >> you know, not sort of this tells you anything about disney fundamentally, but any time i see people so positive, and i don't just mean the analysts, but the general public so positive on a company, you wonder, what are we all missing. the same way people were so negative on disney for the last four years, now errand agrees this is the place to be. what are possible stumbling blocks what has to go right to justify that kind of price you're talking about. >> totally agree it's a little disconcerting that everybody loves it, but there really is a lot to like at the moment the theme parks are on fire. given the two lands, the one that just opened in californi

c up.ax dax and the cap a worsening european economy is -- barclays and bankamerica merrill lynch are urging investors to buy longer dated bonds. it comes after the ecb opened up the possibility of stimulus measures. around's 30 year note is 40 basis points, representing a premium of less than 100 points over the five-year bonds. up to 15 yield curve, years, is negative. valentin marinov is still with us. are talking people about with the yield curve but i want your perspective on the currency. i have a chart that shows you your dollar, -- euro-dollar, volatility cratering. the range the euro dollar trading in is the lowest since 1999. has anything shaken us from this summer? valentin: it will change down the road the chart is highlighting the main driver, dollar carry trades funded in euro. you are hoping two things will hold. the rate differential, the rate advantage will be there and the volatility of the pair will remain as low as possible sa -- possible. be a morer will dovish fed down the road and to the extent there is growing uncertainty about global growth risk aversion, you

of rate global head strategy at merrill lynch is with us. a bloomberg equity reporter joins us as well. let me kick it off because you were talking about the curve steepening. the three month tenure still inverted. you say the next question for the market is whether the pebble put his first or the trump put. what will these mean for the curve yak of the powell put is the one where the fed follows through on the rate cuts, and the general expectation is that should steepen the curve, so the curve would continue to steepen as rates move lower. it is not that obvious because of how aggressively the fed is priced in. that would have been the historical precedent. the trump put would be if we get more positive news on trade and we get to price out that negativity. that should be more of a bear steepener than a bull steepener. manus: we had a guest yesterday who made the point that was the fed, in other words, the powell put being activated emboldens trump doubling down on his tariff war. would you agree with that? >> i'm not sure whether i necess

little bit overcooked here, burned on the dow 30 heat map after a warning from bank of america/merrill lynch. and, of course, they say the burger giant and its competitors need to watch with out for chick-fil-a. chick-fil-a, whose rising sales and growth could begin eating away at casual dining's biggest names. sooner than anyone thinks. so mcdonald's is down about $4 right now. >>> and the rare earth threat. rare earths are in your car, they're in your phone, in your washing machine. and now china is threatening to close up its rare earth treasure chest, lock it and maybe throw away the key. coming up, we've got the man behind what could be the' answer to china's shot across the bow. the top guy of the one and only rare earth mine in the united states is here. np materials co-chair james latinsky is joining me in a fox business exclusive next. ♪ it all started under this buttonwood tree. twenty-four people came together to sign an agreement that created the stock exchange. just the right elements coming together. it started when scores more people came together, just down the street and tra

here to explain is can hector, bank of america, merrill lynch transportation analyst.ow into the u.s. economy. we saw that rebound. sustainable? we saw the greatest rebound since the start of our survey, up 19%, which is odd, because we solid the celebrating. -- we saw it decelerating. seeing this rebound, a couple of reasons we think. there was truck overhauls, inspectors were looking at the trucks, that could cause of pulling out of capacity, it could be there was a rebound of spring demand. we saw after floods and issues that help up freight, could be we saw a nice spring rebound. there are a host of reasons why we could see the rebound. it was on after the accelerating downside. david: over time, what is the relationship between the numbers you follow in trucking and the underlying economy? can you track it through. ken: we see a good correlation between our survey and what is coming up with ism and ip. it has been in good real-time indicator. trucks moved 66% of all freight, 83% of all revenue spent in transportation is spent on trucking. getting a read of the shi

david: joining us on the phone is ron epstein, bank of america merrill lynch senior aerospace analystch is the boeing discussion dominating the -- dominating the air show? ron: it was definitely a factor. the show kicked off with airbus a23-xlr.g their boeing has been the larger in tombs of -- in terms of order, i think. the points of conversation they show, but forget the discussion last week about united technologies. i was going to say, is the overall feeling that all of this is just good for airbus, is --re more stuff where that morefor airbus, in that stuffer boeing means there will be more winners and losers? been many haven't substantial orders for wide bodies yet, in re memory, that is really boeing's strength point. we are expecting to see some the 777,r the 787 and but compared to previous years, to be expecting this lower given the backlogs. happens totly what the profit margins, in a car you make more money if it is a bigger car. is that true in the airline industry, specifically when you look at the airbus order? they are smaller aircraft? ron: it really depends on the pr

look at the broader impact of geopolitical discord on the bankdities space with the of america merrill lynchrch. this is bloomberg. ♪ rch. this is bloomberg. ♪ viviana: china is tweaking president trump's campaign slogan, saying the trade war has not made america great again. beijing says it is willing to work with the u.s. to end the dispute. it has blamed the trump administration for the collapse in talks and china says it will not be pressured into making concessions. donald trump's chief economic advisor will be leaving soon. the chairman of the white house council of economic advisors has been a vigorous backer of the president signature tax cut, but his influence in the white house was seen as limited. kevin hazzard's post was downgraded from a cabinet level position. the transportation board is conducting a far-reaching review theow going -- investigation could lead to recommendations that would have significant implications in the way aircraft are certified. global news -- global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in

elsewhere, bank of america, merrill lynch, monthly survey of global fund managers, 230 around the worlds widely watched as a contrarian indicator this is the most bearish they have been in a long time they're into bonds, they're into cash, they're into utilities and they're basically away from equities in the united states. other than that, and also away from european equities the most crowded trade, long u.s. treasuries and number two is long technology number three out there, distantly, long the dollar is a crowded trade. so what is the pain trade? the pain trade, the contrarian trade that would cause the most damage to all the people in this position, stay long stocks and stay short treasuries. that's why a lot of people believe this is the most likely scenario we'll keep an eye on that. g guys, back to you. >> thank you very much to the bond pits and watch the u-turn in rates. rick santelli at the cme in chicago. good morning, rick. >> absolutely, carl. big u-turn not only our fed, but mario draghi and the liquidity keeps playing louder and louder songs. two day of bunds, around min

the new bank of america merrill lynch survey says investor bearishness is at its highest since the financialr something, usually building up a defense so you are not exactly bullish. well, there's a contrarian view on that, that that could be a bullish sign. that not everyone is gung-ho on this market. let's get the read from hal lambert who is helping finance the big campaign going on today. it is interesting, if you buy the contrarian view, which so many people are piling up so much cash, so worried about something, that's a good thing. what do you think? >> oh, absolutely. that's very much always a good thing. you know, we have had a wall of worry for about ten years now in the market. so this isn't actually new. people have been defensive ever since the collapse of 2008 where they had the economic problems back then. people have been nervous. they have been nervous, a lot of people don't trust the stock market still. i still think we've got a ways to go here because of the contrarian view. neil: they also look at this survey on global growth expectations have deteriorated, collapsed is t

when you take a look at a bank of america merrill lynch, j.p.ey and goldman sachs, all of those players are global players and because of the downturn in 2008 and 2009, they were able to get the capital infused into their banks faster than the european banks and have been able to take market share the last 10 years. they are tough competitors for the players over here. tom: i see deutsche bank under a six handle. it goes on and on for the european banks. which institutions in europe will allow europe to be more anglo-american and compete? jonathan: the biggest issue you have got is rates. the u.s. has a rate cycle that goes up, which helps, and profitability improved. -- we areement talking about potentially rate cuts. the interest income squeeze has hurt european banks. you look at u.s. banks. other parts of their portfolio have performed really well, whereas over here on the revenue book have lost share. 2008,ne: in the u.s. in they fixed the banks quickly and in europe they are dragging on and on and it is legacy issues that have not been dea

. >> mark of america, merrill lynch.conomists have an i understand retail sales based on debit and credit card volumes. a down shift in activity for may. a 0.1% increase month over month, around a 2% annual level. that's the orange line here. retail sales, autos. pretty much in tune with the story that the s&p retail stocks have been telling you, which is a bit of a step down in activity nothing too alarming, really consistent with a slow but still positively growing economy what was interesting is the three-month average is still holding up okay. apparently credit and debit card had been kind of choppy. in terms of region, they break this down. california, san diego, and l.a. and san francisco were strong on these measures houston, dallas not so great so kind of a coastal story and then who knows, maybe an energy impact in texas. >> mike, thanks very much for that we look forward to the next installment. meantime, shares of tesla lower today despite positive comments from elon musk last night. here are some of the highl

i gave you this to look at because i think it's interesting that bank of america merrill lynch, goldmanl this impact the market and company profits. down 1% in 2019 and goldman sachs says if it goes up to 25% tariffs in october, that's a drawdown of 5% on company profits which doesn't sound like a lot but for these companies that don't make huge margins, that might be a lot for this year. we did have some optimism coming from the trade rep, trade adviser peter navarro this morning which is probably helping lift the markets today, telling another news outlet the mexican tariffs may not have to go into effect because the administration have the mexicans' attention. will they come to a deal? i think that's still remaining to be seen. neil: thank you very much. susan li. republicans certainly hope the president comes to a deal because they don't want to do what they are thinking of doing, and forcing the president's hand here to say if you pursue this on your own, in other words, you trade the lever to get something that has nothing to do with trade, we think you are going way beyond the po

what you see is when you see these extremes instead of -- by the way, this is reflected in the merrill lynchrvey, today rbc had its own survey of fund managers all saying they really had gotten quite defensive and it helps explain how the market has continued to lift even with the data being bad and yes, of course, people relying on the fed so usually when you have kind of a real kind of giddy breakout and people love the market, and you see many more bulls than bears, that's more the time to start worrying that the market's gotten a little bit frothy and stretched to the upside and so we see that's not really the case right now. we can burn off some more of this pessimism i think the consensus forecast is 2,950 usually that's not how rallies end, when everybody says, aha, we reached our target and now we're done >> mike, thank you >> maybe that's how the year ends >> it could be we could go all over the place and settle back here, sara, that's true. >> 2950.83 as things stand thank you very much for that despite the rally and hopes of a rate cut, one top portfolio manager says it's hard to

you had folks at b of a merrill lynch saying we might get something similar now when you have an agreementhe finance heads of a lot of these countries to have some kind of coordinated stimulus, not use currencies as a weapon, basically somewhat coordinate central bank policies, have some kind of stimulative message. the u.s. dollar index did have this downswing as risk markets got refreshed in early 2016. so it did have an effect you were lower here until of course the 2016 election got the pop. take a look atthe s&p 500 with that same time scale you had previously had this very climactic low and then you built upon that and basically it was a pretty good glide path higher for the s&p 500 there. treasury yields, a little bit of a different story. you had another situation where yields were very suppressed and here we are below 2% one more leg down and then finally you got the pop-up to normalize rates. it seems as if as the merrill folks are saying this could be some kind of a psychological or stimulative event coming toward the end of this month. we'll have to see if that works out or if

rate cut joining us to discuss, marianne bartles, head of exchange strategy at bank of america merrill lynch global research. long title there michael feroli as well joining us jpmorgan chief u.s. economist. michael, i'll start with you if i may. take us dwlur take on the jobs number this morning. >> well, it was disappointing of course the headline number coming in well below anyone's expectation. and what's also -- you don't want to get too carried away with one number, but the trend has been slowing and the weakness was broad-based and it wasn't easily attributable to weather or some other special factor it was a disappointment. you had softer wage numbers. so across the board, and coming on the heels of some soft activity data in april, it's not a great signal about the momentum of growth in the economy right now. >> marianne, mike santoli has basically pointed out the fact that we're basically right where we were in january of 2018 on the s&p again. in terms of where you expect to end this year for markets, what is your target >> so our year-end target is 2900 we still think we can have

i think if you think about how portfolios are positioned and merrill lynch did a study where they pointed are very overweight lower quality cyclical companies, that doesn't work in a period of decel rating corporate profits. i don't think people are paying attention to it. i think it's the biggest issue out there. >> really. >> i wouldn't lie. >> what about political issues do you think he is a pretty good manager? >> never a down year. his view is if we did get one of the crazies he calls him that the market would be down 30% or 40%. >> i don't know how you can say it just based on somebody winning or losing an election. i don't know. remember people said that about trump that if trump was elected -- >> trump was running on kind of -- >> i think one has to be careful. >> let's say if you are getting close to the election, it looks like you don't think that if the democrats win that that would be a problem for the economy or the market >> it depends what the democratic platform is. >> we have an idea what it is going to be. they are all aligned with the deal, medicare for all. >> let's sa

. >> john, no association with merrill lynch, i guess you wish >> that's right. >> john lynch, and peteof the world for the next three hours. >> when we return, 600 companies send a letter to president trump about the tariffs. the ceo of one major company taking a different route we'll explain next >>> time for the executive edge. more than 600 u.s. companies sending a letter to president trump urging him to resolve trade tensions with china. walmart, target, macy's and costco among the companies that actually signed the letter they say they're concerned about tit for tat tariffs and say that tariffs are not an effective tool to change china's unfair trade practices. apple ceo tim cook did not sign the letter president trump met with cook yesterday to discuss trade and other hot button issues. that meeting was disclosed by ivanka trump during an event with governors about skills development. no additional details were made public >>> massachusetts senator and democratic presidential candidate elizabeth warren introducing new legislation to tackle the student debt crisis warren's plannin

a new merrill lynch survey showing 56% of americans admit they, quote, treat themselves when they meet vacation, eating out at a nice restaurant and indulging in spa or beauty treatments. bank of america has consumer banking and investment. what jumped out in this survey? was it surprising? >> there is a combination of hopeful optimism for the future meaning down the road i'm going to be okay but right now the next 3 to 5 years people are in incredible stress and stressed about how they are going to manage competing priorities, how do i save for retirement, how do i save for a home, how do i handle paying for vacations, all those competing priorities creating a lot of stress. the good news is the solution side was over half the respondents said they are seeking advice digitally or with an advisor and two thirds said they are going to do that soon which is way above what i talked about a couple years ago. more and more people saying i am at a point where i truly need advice. cheryl: the adoption of digital and mobile device, the coming-of-age millennials, really worry about their financ

. >> there was a technical analyst at merrill lynch yesterday that looked at the performance of the fangstocks and said that there were serious problems like a head and shoulders pattern that was setting up and that spelled problems for the broader market too. would you agree with that? >> i don't like the pattern guess. what we like to say is that the momentum for those items is detear -- the momentum is deteriorating for those items. we think they have further to let's say consolidate or work lower before the market puts in a good oversold reading. >> we are now looking at crude oil in a bear market down more than 20% from the highs that i think were set back in april what do you think when you look at that chart? >> so our call on crude was that it was going to go to 50 we don't think it's a stretch to get back to the late 2018 lows around $42 you really took a look at the long-term chart for crude, you would see it's a distribution that is very volatile and looks like it's coming in further. you can see the chart there. just look to the bottom of that trend line it would be cataclysm

the chief equity technical strategist at merrill lynch. >> when we look at technicals a few major developmentsand stock 50 and dow, small caps, just moving back here and taking a look at the nasdaq 100, it broke down from a technical pattern calls head and shoulder top it may be 60.42, maybe could get a deep correction, maybe 15% on the nasdaq that pattern remains firmly in place while below 7300 on the nasdaq when you this i nk of the odds how do you handicap it >> i am hahn solo, never tell me the odds there is a good shot that you can see it quite frankly, as long as you are below 7300 of the nasdaq 100, you should be able to test that retracement level and that target it does not go well for faang down also and the s&p. tech is the biggest part of the s&p 500. the s&p 500 also broke down from the head and shoulders top that suggests that we could see a 50% retracement down to 26.50 at the s&p as long as you are below 20 for the s&p, that's a anthropologist it is not necessarily a sale june you can see a pull back but when you look at summer season and pattern you can get a rally, it comes

>> then there is cannabis producer kroneos group which got a double upgrade at bank of america merrill lynchcall was based on optimism about the canadian company's prospects in the u.s. market. that stock is up by 8.1%. >>> coming up, a spring slump for crude, and energy industry plans in the second half of the year ceo of oil giant shell is going to join "squawk box" straight off the company's investor day to discuss their strategy, initiatives and a big-time shareholder return plan. share return plan. ay ted you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc there's one thing you can be sure of. they're changing by the nanosecond. that's why cognizant created a unique engineering approach to design and build new digital products. learn how cognizant softvision designs experiences and engineers outcomes. ♪ cool. ♪ >>> welcome back to "squawk box. futures right now are under triple digits, finally 96 points after the weaker-than-expected adp employment numbers, 93.87. 27,000 they were looking for 170,000. last month was a shocker when it was up 270,000, and it was reflected in the actual numbers that came