we will be speaking with david woo of bank of america and merrill lynch. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i am remain boston. how u.s. snapshot of stocks closed today. the s&p, dow, and nasdaq finishing in the green. stocks closing higher after rising on speculation that president trump will not go 15 levywith a december on chinese goods. elizabeth warren has her own trade plan. we hear more from the white house hopeful. opec reaches an agreement, adjusting targets but leaving oil supplies threatening barely changed. begin with the bond market treasury yields climbing on some positive eco-data. if you look at this chart, you will see the conference board leading indicator has been moving in tandem with treasuries. the uptick in yields signaling the economy could be on the mend in 2020. running is now, david woo, head of global rates at bank of america and merrill lynch. in 2020.my on the mend it sounds like you are fully on board the thesis of the economy on the band. bullish fore been at least a year. the big s

joining us now, mark cabana, bank of america merrill lynch head of u.s. rates strategy.ed in, be a surprise, is if you get the fed at some point signaling a hike because they basically overshoot inflation. mark: that's right. there's a very high bar for them to raise interest rates, certainly higher than to cut rates.t we think they are going to signal the path of policy is in a good place right now. it would take material reassessment to change anything, and the dot plot. . will be key we think the -- the dot plot will be key. we think the dots will shift lower, but we will have to see what the distribution around that looks like. we think that in 2021, they will signal they intend to keep a rate hike in. again, it is going to be a fed that will signal they are on hold for now, but it is really the distributive risks reflected in the dot plot that the market will be very much focused on. art: one of the things you just said is in 2021, they may put a 2021, which means a whole 12 months without a rate hike. you talk about the hurdle being high. obviously they are going t

bank of america merrill lynch say the market is primed for a first quarter melt up given that the fed are still adding liquidity and we have the receding risks of the brexit and the trade war. something to look out for, how are investors positioning into the first quarter? let's check in on first word headlines from around the world with annabelle droulers. reporter: the media budget update and australia says economic pressures are beginning to weigh on government finances. the treasury is lowering the forecast surplus for -- through june next year and subsequent three years as it scales back. payments. if the government managed to return books to the black, it will be the first time since before the 2008 financial crisis. australians can be confident about their economic future with the first account surplus in 40 years. welfare dependency at its lowest level in 30 years. the biggest tax cuts in 20 years, and the first balanced budget in 11 years. claims that authorities have extended a campaign against political opponents into the financial sector. --former senior at vector's execut

she invited mark cabana, bank of america merrill lynch head of u.s. rates strategy.y keen to talk about repo. the fed has it under control. they said they have it under control. the repo rate has not spiked into the end of the year. why is this such a big deal for me? lale: well, i will let mark chime in and a second, but from my perspective, it is a vague part of the market where people just assume it works. i think the fact that the fed is pumping in four hundred billion dollars or $500 billion just to make it past december -- part of it is also, have you ever played --ame -- god, i don't alix: twister? lale: yes, thank you. [laughter] lale: it could be a lot of things. eventually, you just get so bent out of shape that it comes crumbling down. my issue is we may have december in control. the question is there's january, april, february, there's which is the japanese year-end. hopefully mark can shed some light here and tone down my bearishness. has beenbe fair, lale warning of this for a long time, and did it happen. mark: there's a saying at the front end that fu

the shares fell abo 169.83 skywork solutions was upgraded to by to tunderperform bank of america merrill lynchthe anticipated increase in mand for chips due to the growth of 5g technology. skyworks price targets 122. the stock rose more than 1 1/2% in today's trading session. >>> as you likely kw by now, paul volker passed away over the weekend. he was a prominent fixture in the world of fance f more than 40 years. he servedix presidents, most famously as the chair of the federal reserve in the19s, the current fed chair and his colleagues today are dealing with a low inflation environment. and in some ways, they can thank paul volker for that. >> he is credited with taming runaway inflation in the 1980s, earning that credit wasn't easy. he was predent of the federal reserve bank of new york. at that time, economic growth was way down, but prices were way up. puttinghe economy in a period known as stagflation. by 1980 gdp was down to 3%, and inflation was u to 14%. >> ronald reagan was elected president in november of 1980, and he vowed to get the economy growing again. but volker who committed

sebastian is from bank of america merrill lynch, this is all about europe.oticed that the vanguard ftse etf had the biggest inflows since june 2017. do you join the phrase in terms of these kind of flows? are you part of this flow and momentum of picking up more europe? have a look at the chart. it is obviously an impressive chart whenever you see this, but for me, the main question is are these kind of statistics and data telling us something about performance going forward? unfortunately, we find that these statistics about flows have little predictive power. that is not something we focus on. we say growth momentum in europe has been bad and we are seeing signs of this picking up. the domestic drivers of the cycle are improving. had was weak we global growth backdrop, especially in the u.s.. u.s. isomentum in the the last headwind for growth momentum in europe. we come back to what is priced in already. the equityion is market has run too far on the straight optimism. positive, but for those who think now it is finally europe's time to shine, we think eur

but the mere fact of merrill lynch do the ends justify the means. putin says witnesses starts december 13th on g.w. . this is the daily news live from bad enough pro-democracy rallies in hong kong the joy of the knowledge of crowds in months organizers say 800000 people took part in what they called a nonstop to the city's pro beijing government a correspondent has lived in tents also coming up a major fire engulfs a factory in india's capital.

survey showing passengers are the plane.about the safety according to the survey by bank ofri a merril lynchey would be hesitant to fly it even after deemed se by regulators. nearly two thirds of respondents said they would wait six months before gettingnen the p or never fly it at all. >>> oracle reported earlangs today. and while its profit topped wall street estimates r enue fell short. the company said growth in the cloud services and in its license support unit failed to traditional softw business. that sent the stock initially lower in after hours trading. results. onoras m on oracle's >> oracle is investing to become a bigger player in cloudak computingg on companies from amazon to salesforce. investors are on the lookout for more iheight into how effort is going. one company to watch the crowd services and license support division, the largest division, including crowd revenue as well as maintenance fees for traditional software, their revenue came in at $6.8 billion. just in line with ctexions. most analyst rate oracle a hold right now, nearly 70%. jmp patrick wall raven staying on

deere downgraded to underperform from neutral at bankf america/merrill lynch citing the company's disappointing earnings report and outlook. target $150, the stock fell ove 1.5% to $1659. >>> wells fargo downgraded to underperform from market perform at raymond james citing lingering stigma from the fake account scandal. the firm has no pri target on the stock. the shares fell 1.5% to $53.63. >>> rokung dded from underweight to equal weight at morgan stanley, citingotential for slowdown in revenue growth for that company next year, price target $110, shares fell by 15% to $136.07.en bi downgraded from underperform to neutral at baw. d, citing the company's controversial alzheimer's drug that is awaiting fal appr which the analyst doubts it will receive. price target now $250, that stock fell more than 2% to $292.39. >>> still ahead, bing set lofty goals for december, and the company's to-do list is long. >>> the u.s. trade representative is reviewing the possibility of raising tariffs on various european unn products. the parade rep cited a lack of progress in resolving eat dispver aircraft sub

>> one thing i think you mentioned in the survey we just heard from merrill lynch and that is everybodys on the same page. right. >> i think it's fine to run with the herd a while. but the trick is when do you pull away from the herd? i think we are fine still. one of thes positive things it's an election year. two things happen in election years. nune it's rare to go into recession. and number two rare that the equi markets have a sell off in the election year. because of that i still feel positive and good t for upcoming year. very good. larry adam withaymond james, thanks for joining us larry. >> thank you very much. >>> well, the housing market seems to be firing once again on all cylinders. as we reported home build sentiment is higher and construction up. today y can add a report pointing to02trongfor the industry. here is diana olick. >> a sharp jump in-housing starts and building permint re in addition to very strong buyer demand could mean big results for builders next year. fanny mae boosting the 2020 thanks to stronger ovell economic growth. specifically a robust labor market

kjell ob upgraded t buy from neutral at bank of america merrill lynch. the analystit improved sales growth which should help profit is $70.ce targe the smars rose more than 2.5% to $68.64. duncan brands upgraded at guggenheim. the analyst says therepodding of stores help increase sales. the price target $83. stock up 2% to $74.93. mienl's downgraded to under weight from equal weight at morgan stanleyg cit declining comprables raels and rising compression. the price target is $a. shares of the small cap stock dropped nearly 8% to $6.17. >>> in the meantime something caughtur attention in nike earnings report, yes reported better than expected profit and revenue which we told you about last night. but the company says the michael jordan brand had its first ever billioar quarter. not bad for someone w hasn't played professional basketball in more than 15 years. jabary young is the sports reporter for cnbc.com. welcome. pleasure to have you here. what is is it about the jordan brand that dri it to the record level. >> first of all thanks for having me sittin

stock rose1%o 376.42 p haines brand downgraded to underperform at from neutral at bank of america merril lynchg a slowdown of sales for e company's champion athletic apparel brand. price target down to $13 and shares town5% to 14.40. >>> still ahead, a ar's long high stakes labor case and a big win for one of america's biggest mpanies. ♪ ♪ >>> a long running labor union case has finally come to anend. and iwas a win for the world's largest fast foodt restaur chain kate rodger that is the stories. >> a big win for mcdonald's ine the bige over the franchisee franchiser relations an how much responsibility franchiseders like the giant have over actions taken at franchise locations.gh the neir labor relations board instructing a federal settlements to resolve complaints against mcdonald's and 29 franchisees in a case that'snder way for three years. >> what do we want? >> workers claimed they faced retaliation for participating in raiesalling for $15 an hour minimum wage a unions. the decision still has to be finalized. but it minas mcdald's escapes int employer liability which would hold corporati

really happening here and i think it's a big problem i mean i remember back when i was a trader at merrill lynch on the corporate bond us one of the most senior traders there told me there's no incentive to ever go short the market because if you're right you're not going to get paid anyway and if you're wrong you know you're going to get paid so what's the point most will go along and i think that's the entire view of most market participants right now is that there's just no reason to fight the fed there's no reason to fight the markets just go along ignore all the risks that are out there until you know they come to a head in which case you'll react. jeff garment the out arca thank you so much. thanks for having me. finally today how much is a babe ruth autograph worth depends on the bat but the bat used to hit roots 500th home run was sold for a $1000000.00 s.c.p. auctions the not to defy the buyer as for that 500 homer it was hit august 11th 1929 in a game against christie's favorite the cleveland indians according to the auction house the ball cleared the right field wall with league park

more on what to expect with francisco blanch, bank of america merrill lynch.ng for saudi aramco ipo pricing. that is front and center for the vienna opec meeting. we get some economic data outcome alike initial jobless claims hitting in just a few moments. [ electrical buzzing ] [ dramatic music ] ahhhh! -ahhhh! elliott. you came back! alix: we are taking a look at glencore. shares dropping 4%. a fraud office is opening an investigation into glencore on suspicion of bribery. suspicion of bribery. that stock down 4%. sfo is now confirming that is happening. we will give you some updates as they wind up crossing. that stock getting hit by 4% in premarket. we are just a couple of seconds away from the latest read on initial jobless claims as well as the trade balance. jobless claims coming in at 200,000, less than expected. positive signs heading into jobs friday. trade balance narrowing a touch, no, narrowing significantly. -$47.2 billion versus september, which was $51 billion. we are seeing a narrowing trade balance, narrower than we had expected. those things

gold.owed the price of there was no computers or anything those days, i just called up merrill lynch and said, what's the price of gold, got the price. i want to deacon company, don't know if anybody remembers it, but deac was a money changer in guam. they had this operation of buying gold from refugees. so what they were doing, believe it or not, they had a 5% charge. price thatbuy-sell is standard, but they were charging 5% on top of the sell price. so they were getting 5%. secondly, they were selling -- they were paying for one ounce il ofld and getting one ta gold, of 1.2 ounces. so what do we do now? coordinator -- the military did all the work, but there was a civilian guard. down.t closed them i said, how can there close them down? the military has authorized this. he said, close them down and tell them to come and see me. i said ok, fine. i did it. they were mad as hell, of course. then they came to me. i want to his office one day two weeks later. he puts his hand over the phone and says, are you sure about this gold thing? i said, i will stick my life on it, for god sakes.

taking a look at the bank of america merrill lynch global stress indicator, a level above zero essentiallyndicates financial stress is higher when we look at demand for hedging. if it is below zero, financial stress is lower. we are seeing financial stress at the lowest level since back in may of this year. if we take a look at a few movers on the day in the pipeline, take a look at tallgrass energy, absolutely surging up the better part of 21% after blackstone agreed to buy the remaining shares of the company for $2.2 billion, giving a lift to some peers in that space. noble, williams, and energy transfer all up. vonnie: thank you for that. that is kailey leinz with our market check. remember, the function gtv on the terminal allows you to browse all of the charts featured on bloomberg tv. save your favorites for future reference. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." let's check on first word news with viviana hurtado. viviana: tomorrow, the u.s. house set for a historic vote on impeaching president dona

rallyingobacco is also on bank of america merrill lynch who says there will not be any regulatory pressuree to the vaping situation or menthol cigarettes being banned. that is providing a bit of a headwind. up 1.3%. pearson is the top mover in the u.k.. up to percent. daimler is one of the auto stops in germany, down 1.2%. that is one of the stocks that has the dax down at the end of the session. let's move on and take a look at where we are in the united states. up .2% for the s&p 500. slowly and gradually crawling to the 3200 mark, but it is certain we are not seeing a selloff or much of a rally, at least yet. data onlly the gdp friday will change things. a slight selloff in treasuries. the 10 year yield at 1.93. i guess we are still in the 20 point basis point range. euro a little weaker, 1.1120. a little bit of a tick up in the vix index. nothing to write home about. in the united states, macy's doing well. also the gaming companies, wynn resorts higher by more than 3%. quite big moves the upside. some of the retailers doing well and reversing some of the declines from earlier in the y

you think this is a good idea >> yes, i do and there are terrific pieces by bank of america and merrill lynch about how well sky works is doing and they have a great manager and a great 5g player and i've been saying that for some times about 40 points and i reiterate if that comes down, that is a good one dave in illinois dave >> caller: dr. cramer. so what is the s&p 500 oscillatortelling us these days >> well we're starting to get over bought. that is a day like today a little selloff doesn't hurt and we want that because we don't want to get too aggressive if we do that then suddenly we'll find ourselves in a fix by the end of the year andwe're still okay and still at a reasonable level. >> caller: jim, very recently this pharma company published in enhanced phase three data on the leukemia drug bolstering the case for speed and efficacy and 40 days report if reported q3 results beating sales and earning expectations of course i'm talking about abv and you look this stock because it is a high ranking and a heavy weighting in your charitable trust and the stock is up 23% in the last three

talking about, on the possibility of a big 5g upgrade cycle, specifically yesterday, bank of america merrill lynchpgraded those -- double upgraded, i should say. ae equivalent from a sell to buy. there could be $1.4 million smartphones that will need to be switched over to 5g from 4g. several hundred million devices. both are apple suppliers. maybe that is another reason we have apple up an amazing 70% this year. investors not that worried knowing that is likely to come next year. they will debut a 5g smartphone in 2020. taylor: if anyone can do trendlines in technicals, it is you. that is why i wanted you on this program to pick us up. take a look at the chart i am showing in my terminal. when we talk about who needs the trade deal more, u.s. or china, you have this chart that shows the relative performance of the shanghai composite to the s&p. what i was looking at? abigail: that is very kind of you on the trendlines. you can dry it anyway you like to, but this is squarely going down. that is the shanghai composite to the s&p 500. china starts doing terrible 500tive to the s&p since the start of

caution makes sense going into the new year we worked together at merrill lynch in 2000. seen the bubble. while i don't think we're in a tech bubble per se, there are extreme numbers out there, a lot of overbought stocks central banks are easy, at some point will come home to roost. from trading perspective, i would be cautious going into the new year we prefer software and services. >> shifting to the faang stocks, a number of these stocks had quite a run, netflix perhaps less so, facebook shrugging off the regulatory concerns. there have been calls to break up amazon as well as facebook. how much are you looking at a regulatory risk as a factor that comes into play for faang stocks in particular? >> regulation is clearly top concern for investors, looking at names, probably reduces ability to do m and a which takes away option alternaality. they're fairly cheap given growth rates the thing that gets you as a leading tech company is disruption, new technologies that disrupt your position new technologies like ai i don't see that disrupting these, i think they're leaders

not only piper jaffray, but bank of america merrill lynch, talking about risk assets melting up at the beginning of the year. what is your out look for stocks heading into the new year? >> they're, connell. increasingly people are getting very excited about 2020. a lot of bullishness in the market. i think down to probably three major factors. one, more positive news coming out, particularly around the china trade deal. the fed has been increasing the balance sheet pretty significantly. i think coming into the election there is optimism that the president and the administration will do whatever it takes in terms of -- connell: you buy it, essentially? >> i do. i think i'm positive for next year. we obviously out of the uk a big market bounce after the election as well. this can continue here for next year. melissa: major economic boost. ford announcing adding 3,000 jobs and two factories in detroit, and investing nearly $1.5 billion to build new pickups, suvs, electric vehicles. this is great news. what do you think? >> i think it is. this is great news. a big trend obviously in terms

francine: savita subramanian with us, bank of america merrill lynch. up next, we talk nato, the u.k.we have a watford update as leaders descend to celebrate the nato alliance's 70th anniversary. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ this is bloomberg "surveillance." i am francine lacqua in london, full coverage of the nato summit. leadershas started with descending on watford. we saw president trump arriving by marine one. for a roundup of news we are watching out for, president trump is also giving a press conference in london, we are joined by david merritt and julian fabian who has -- jordan fabian who has been traveling with the president. president trump seems to be well behaved and what he was briefed on, do not talk about brexit or weigh in on u.k. politics. what does he need from his allies? jordan: i think you hit it right on the head. unlike his past where he has rolled a hand grenade into the political scene, he has been on his best behavior, which is i think a favor to boris johnson. what the president is looking for is more affirmation to his approach on the u.k. and in nato where he h

bank of america merrill lynch says any plans to get european rates back to sense might surprise the marketsk of lagarde unintentionally miss communicating to the market. thank you so much, laura cooper, bloomberg and live strategist. our coverage of the last ecb meeting of the year on tv with our matt miller. this is bloomberg. ♪ beyond the routine checkups. beyond the not-so-routine cases. comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. all working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gig-speed network. because beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. ran oh lagarde did you. 2020 vision. the fed signals the same for next year and funding is underway. the uk's first election in five years. our special coverage this evening. welcome, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua. these are your markets. focus is what happens on sunday.

bank of america merrill lynch double upgrading shares to a buy, giving shout-out to the snack maker forg action to improve sales. the brokerage also boosting its price target by 42% to 75 bucks, saying a rotation from growth to value should improve the stock price. >>> up next, why the final installment of the "star wars" adventure is not an end game for the box office. "the claman countdown" coming right back. beyond the routine checkups. beyond the not-so-routine cases. comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. all working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gig-speed network. because beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. wat t. rowe price, hundreds of our experts go beyond the numbers to examine investment opportunities firsthand. like a biotech firm that engineers a patient's own cells to fight cancer. this is strategic investing. because your investments deserve the full story. t. rowe price. invest with co

you use and we lowered our prices substantially and others raised their prices a little bit like merrill lynch and created a huge gap for us to enter into the business with low prices and hopefully great service and we started with four people, that was in 75 we started the company before because we knew thatt the chane would occur and so today we hae about 20000 employees that work with us and try to serve great customers. >> one of the, these of entrepreneurialism and you're right about being in entre nous or you identify as an entrepreneur is that the things you see and act on are what separate you from everyone else so for example, what congress did wasn't the secret but the opposite of a secret and everyone in these security industry new about it. can you reflect a little bit ono why this what we now look back on as obvious and what enabled you to create your business why you were able to act on it and others do not. >> we were not the only firm that entered into that area of discounted commissions but there were a few others and most of which were in new york. we happen to be in san fran

there are number of notes out, bank of america merrill lynch saying that any plan to get rates back tosurprise the markets. berkeley sees the risk of lagarde miss communicating to the market. how high a risk is there about this communication, given how well mario draghi used to navigate that communication to the market? her first press conference so there is always a bit more uncertainty than you would've had under president who had been in place for a couple of years. but today is about continuity. we expect the governing council next march to cut rates by 10 basis points because we think the macroeconomic environment would deteriorate going into next year. so i think signaling that you have continuity but also signaling that you can do more, that would be important for today. with the broader question, how does she position bar?lf and how high is the rhetorice big push in has been on fiscal stimulus. back to 0% level rate in europe? you would need expansion of 3%-4% of gdp is what is really needed. is that a credible number? can you envisage a europe that delivers that kind of fiscal

. >>> bank of america, merrill lynch out with its forecast for 2020 the global economy and the u.s.hina trade conflict will have a cease-fire for more, i'm joined by the grinch himself, ethan harris who invited you on, ethan? i don't even want to talk about this bah humbug >> you're the boss, you must have invited me on. >> i did, i did. slower growth here than we've had recently downgrading global growth significantly. all in all, it's downgraded around the world. >> you look at that story about where we are now, heading into the new year manufacturing sector and capital investment there's a silver lining. in the spring, things will start to bounce back it's not going to be a great recovery, we think this is a cease-fire in the trade war. i don't think it's quite as dire as you're laying out >> that's good >> trying to sell it by the spring there will be growth i've heard that before >> it does hinge around what happens with china, and that's not a given, i don't think >> no, and i think that the way things are developing, the best we can hope for is some very small deal between th

we lowered our prices substantially and others raised their prices a little bit like merrill lynch and created a huge gap for us to enter into the business with low prices and hopefully great service and we started with four people, not in 75, we started a couple years before because we knew this was going to occur and so today we have about 20,000 employees that work with us and try to serve our customers. >> i think one of the themes of entrepreneurialism and you write about being an entrepreneur. you identify as an entrepreneur is that the things you see and act on are what separate you from everyone else so for example what congress did wasn't a secret. it was the opposite of the secret, everyone in the securities industry you about it so can you reflect a little bit on why, what we now look at as obvious and what enables you to create your business, why you were able to act onit and others in . >>. >> we were the only firm that entered into that area of this discounted commissions, there were a few others most ofwhich were in new york . we happened to be in san francisco so this r

this is the bank of america merrill lynch global financial stress indicator.can see, lowest levels since may. if it is above zero, that means financial stress is above where it normally is. below zero, it is below where financial stress usually is across global markets. clearly, now it is well below zero. now investors are saying market laggards should really be playing a game of catch up. one area of the market that could would be emerging markets. over the past decade, it's , andy been the tina world that being the u.s. if you look at the relative performance ratio of the msci emerging markets index versus the s&p 500, it hit a 16 year low. that's where we are now. now you have the likes of edward jones overweighting emerging markets, at the same time blackrock is urging investors to get exposure to cyclical assets that also includes emerging-market. another area we could see do some mean reversion and get an uptick as laggards start to outperform, that could be value. we've seen many had fakes over the past decade. however, many are questioning whether this

first, let's head to tokyo and welcome bank of america merrill lynch head of economics.have you with us. what are we expecting in terms of boj policy given we have seen $120 billion plus of stimulus measures coming from the abe government? not as, so we are excited as the fiscal stimulus package. we think the headline is pretty inflated. it does permit a fiscal cliff and it does help the bank of japan. with trade still turning the corner, it is not strong yet, i think they are going to be pretty comfortable holding. shery: especially now that we are giving -- seeing 10 year yields jumping. this chart showing at one point, we saw them actually turned green and rising above zero. now comfortably within that target range. how much market pressure is japan or the boj getting in order to move? izumi: considerably less. what you are referring to is market operations. they were in a pretty tough spot back in august when they were basically losing control, yield curve control. now, we are back to the midpoint of the target which is a good place for the bank of japan to be. i thi

from bank of america merrill lynch.loomberg new energy finance summit, switching gears, taking place in shanghai and we are discussing how china carries new levels of sustainability while also chasing economic growth. let's bring in justin wu, our new energy finance head of asia-pacific. joins us from shanghai. talk us through what is on the agenda hear this coming your in a slowingt of cop-25, economy. what does the government want to focus on next? >> the chinese government is all about putting its economic policy along with his sustainability agenda. essentially we see that the economy is slowing in china and then it is trying to shift to a higher value economy focusing on things that produce higher values such as innovative sectors, high tech, electric field pulse renewable energy away from heavy industry. those are things that are basically going to be enough for china to hit its paris goals, the last round of climate negotiations to peak emissions around 2030. the real question with cop 25 happening is can china d

also on the phone is mark from bank of america merrill lynch. what do you do now?f in bonds or do go into it and sell? have a lot of investors been trying to lean long duration. there is the potential for further upside surprise into year end. we do not know how the u.s. china trade negotiations will evolve. we do not know what the balance of data over the next week will show. what we do know is the underlying employment trends have been quite resilient over recent months and this morning certainly suggests the u.s. economy has the potential to operate with a slightly stronger stance than previously believed. right now you wait to see where rates settle in. you wait to see how some of the other near-term risks evolve, and you probably want to take the opportunity to start leaning long because 2020 is fraught with uncertainty and it seems unlikely that the u.s. economy will accelerate into a higher gear, at least in the near term. i feel like i've heard that. is it the same deal in equities? bonds, ifollow up on was able to listen to mark speaking on his year ahead

clear attempt to compete with more directly with the likes of morgan stanley and bank of america merril lynch previously to gordon smith who isthe head of chase. the memo that went out announcing this was cowritten by both gordon smith and mary eto, the head of management a cross roll the the her sister put pout a tweet which i thought wassism amusing saying congratulations to his sister. great move by jp morgan tongue in cheek to be clear clients should invest with goldman sachs instead. that power set of siblings continuing and friendly rivalry. >> i like that that's nice. >>> over to mike santoli he has the final chafrt day for us. mike, what do you got. >> court, all day cale ray tausche has been talking about the business round table business optimism index declining. highlighted with the chart here. two measures of business confidence in blue to it conference board ceo confidence index that's mostly large company ceos in orange the yesterday we got the number for the nfib small business optimism. as you can see it's unusual to have this much of a gap. when you do have a gap to have smal

always find, you hear this with goldman, you hear this in varying degrees, bank of america and merrill lynchhedge and get a little bit worried, just i think to cover their heinies here. what do you think is happening? >> well, what we are seeing is some of the soft data, some of the surveys like the ism manufacturing surveys and the purchasing managers indices really are softening. so the economy is slowing down. are we heading into a recession, i don't think so at all because of the health of the consumer. the consumer's really in pretty good shape. the credit scores are better, the amount of debt they have is better, they have jobs, their wages in increasing, and this is 70% of a consumer-driven economy. if we had a recession in 2020, this would be the most perfectly predicted recession of all time. i don't think we are going to see a recession. but we are seeing a slowdown, particularly on the manufacturing side of the economy. neil: you know, there is this old line, i will probably misread it, bull markets don't die, they get murdered, they get taken out and slaughtered and sometimes an

bank of america, merrill lynch.berg. ♪ tom: bloomberg surveillance, thrilled you are with us. kevin cirilli at the top of the hour, with the president, with a massive tweed storm yesterday, flying back across the atlantic david bloom of hsbc. let's put out a chart. i will told is the david bloom chart. this is an approximation of oil adjusted for inflation over 60 years, and also adjusted for the fact that we are wealthier today. it includes some noise on u.s. rising disposable income. david, oil does not have the impact used to have. how is the distraction of oil weaker? how has it affected dollar dynamics? david: it hasn't really. oil prices arer basically inflationary because you are coming off high wages. you know the process. but now we have a different opinion. you use more disposable income to pay for oil. food, and energy. if you pay more for food and energy, you do not have money for anything else. demand goes down, oil price goes down. so the trump mission mechanism of how many things work has completely c

you know, merrill lynch has another great survey where they look at future expectations by institutionalat actually flipped positive but it's the type of flip that you saw only in '02, '09, and '98. so that sort of flipped from really negative to positive tends to have a lot of follow-through so i think it's going to really help 2020. >> stephanie, it's really fascinating, because we've seen so many asset classes rally and log gains this year. but the fact that you've seen it happen within equities and happen within treasuries as well, how unusual is that and would you expect it to continue? >> i think it's very unusual and i don't think it's going to continue but then again, i would have said, sell bonds a year ago, right? maybe buying stocks at this point is not the -- is not the easy thing to do like it was last year. it was hard to buy in december of last year, but it was the right thing to do. you knew things were so depressed. right now you're more at risk on the bonds than you are in stocks again, tocm and i are talking about global growth starting to pick up. >> looking at your 2

i had someone on yesterday putting out bank of america, merrill lynch's forecast for 2020 saying thatgoing to be so quiescent, the next move is going to be down in rates. whereas most people think at 3.7% unemployment, wages are starting to go up, the next move from the fed is to normalize higher if you knew that, you could know a lot if you knew up or down >> joe -- >> go ahead. >> a lot of this will depend what's going overseas. one thing the fed has not fully appreciated is the extent to which the fed is watching what foreign rates are doing to prevent the differential between u.s. and foreign rates from getting too wide a lot of this will depend, for example, what do the europeans do, what do the japanese do. even if they can make a macroeconomic case for why the u.s. rate should be higher, they would worry about putting upward pressure on the dollar and worsening the economy here if you do not see the rest of the world falling in line and the rest of the world's economy improving that raises the global rate structure it makes it that much harder for the fed to raise rates irrespe

. >> the other bank with a lot of continuity, great management is bank one, merrill lynch, i don't knowughts on bank of america >> i think that's an absolutely terrific point as well they've done a fantastic job they've come a long way from the throes of the credit crisis. they're working up solid mortgage loans losses are at just absolutely near skill levels. 34 basis points in the third quarter for portfolio losses and their capital levels are great while they're returning money to shareholders good story for bond holders and shareholders alike. >> john, final question for you. consolidation in 2020. is it possible will regulators allow it what do we look for? >> another great question. we saw sun trust and bb&t. we'll see maybe some more regional bank consolidation, but for the larger banks with their large deposit footprints, i think more tuck-in acquisitions on the margins in areas where they want to further penetrate. >> we'll leave it there. we wish you a very merry christmas and happy holholidays. >> thanks for having me. >>> it has been a terrible year for softbank's masa yoshi

. >> research analyst at bank of america merrill lynch.- it's december 2nd can we look at the chronology of how it's going to happen with 90% certainty or is there still a lot up in the air, so to speak? >> there's still some stuff up in the air boeing put out a press release i guess it was about a month ago there was five steps that they had to go through. they had completed one of those steps. probably the biggest step that they have to go through, the biggest hurdle, if you will, is a joint operational evaluation board. they're going to review the pilot training and the pilot training -- they'll review it. it involves international regulators so to some extent you're herding kittens they'll come up with a report and it has a public review period it looks like getting all of this done before the end of the year is a really, really, really long play. >> there have been some data points on orders that is gratifying on people who like the positive story on boeing is that where you are? the air show, the orders airbus has made some strides a

survey bank of america, merrill lynch surveyed money imaginers around the world $750 billion all thentil november they were sitting on the largest amount of cash like in history. they didn't believe in the stock market rally. they were the ones afraid. working off old assumptions like remember when a trade war began and everyone talked about hawley. we don't do trade wars remember when smooth holly unemployment 9 to 25%. g.d.p. they don't do that working off old assumptions and models. they don't like to have the status quo upset. they are all guilty. think were all guilty listen, for the money managers it's fine when someone pays you money to underperform, fine. the media should have known better. a lot of that was wanting? to happen, not thinking it would happen. lisa: was it willful? >> i think it was willful. the status quo has made a lot of people very wealthy. sending all the jobs to china has made a lot of americans very wealthy. not the americans watching watcg this show people don't like when the applecart is upset. particularly wall street. griff: numbers out 7% -- tax refo

but, i went to merrill lynch's commodity division. i said hey, can you give me a job?modities that summer gave me a job to help him around. in 1973, we have the oil shock, bear market in stocks, commodities is the hottest thing. i was hired as the director of commodities at dominic and dominic having never done anything in the director of commodities, but i was hired. david: you left that eventually to set up your own firm? ray: yes. that was 1973, 1974, big bear market in stocks. dominic and dominic went broke. i went to what was sandy wallace, hayden stone at the time. it did all of those mergers. i became in charge of institutional commodities hedging of all different things. , that put me with all different futures markets. then we got into the environment where -- 1974, 1975 -- you got into this environment where interest rates, tightening of monetary policy, all of those things were driving the markets. that got me hooked on those markets. anyway, i got fired from there because i was a bit rowdy. david: did you punch your boss in the face or something? ray: yes,