loretta mester, sizzling. they go to this panel.athan: how much pain while they inflict on this economy as they try to bring inflation down? tom: the times we live in, as russia is at war with ukraine, president biden meeting with the leaders of japan and south korea at nato. kriti gupta. >> the key question is how much work they have to do, how hawkish does the federal reserve have to go? a gauge to figure out how hawkish they can go. take a look at the two-euro tip sealed. real rates are negative for most of the yield curve, unless you look at the front end of the curve. as we ask how much hawkish we can go, this is a part of the market that is still in negative territory. since 1990, that that has never ended a tightening cycle while real rates were in negative territory. the fact that this is still low suggest there is still work to do. tom: we are honored that kit juckes could join us from societe general. decades on central banking. what will you listen for on this panel? kit: i'm expecting to hear a lot of resolute comments a

pimco, a global leader in active fixed income. >>> good morning, loretta mester telling cnbc overnighthe expects in july >> going into today, if the meeting were today, i would be advocating 75. >> more of her comments straight ahead. >>> a vote of confidence for bob chapek, disney announcing it extended the ceo's contract for three years. >>> cost cutting under way at tesla, the company cutting about 200 jobs in its auto pilot division and closing an office in california. >>> it's wednesday, june 29, 2022 and "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning, welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew will be joining us later this morning he's live from the aspen idea festival with a

thank you, loretta mester.ay is juneteenth, a federal holiday marking the abolition of slavery and african-american freedom. juneteenth 1965 is when the last enslaved people in texas received word of their freedom, more than two years after president lincoln had signed the emancipation proclamation. we would like to turn to draueoo raise an antiracist," and "good night racism." happy father's day, by the way. >> thank you. >> brennan: i know you hav holiday is? teach hers >> i'm going to teach her that it is freedom day, and that throughout this nation's history there has been two perspectives on freedom, really two fights for freedom. enslaved people were fighting for freedom from slavery, and enslavers were fighting for the freedom to enslave. in many ways that sort of contrast still exists today. there are people who are fighting for freedom from assault rifles, freedom from poverty, and there are others who are fighting for freedom to exploit, freedom to have guns, freedom to maintain inequality. i want to

out of there >> tyler banks, we'll see you soon >>> we'll speak exclusively with loretta mester doesthat inflation hasn't pavled and the economy may have to take a backseat to tame it? wealth is shutting down the office for mike's retirement party. worth is giving the employee who spent half his life with you, the party of a lifetime. ♪ ♪ wealth is watching your business grow. worth is watching your employees grow with it. ♪ ♪ only at vanguard, you're more than just an investor you're an owner. that means that your goals are ours too. and vanguard retirement tools and advice can help you get there. that's the value of ownership. right now, we're all feelin' the squeeze. we're having to get creative. find a new way. but birthdays still happen. fridays still call for s'mores. you have to make magic, and you're figuring out how to do that. what you don't have to figure out is where to shop. because while you're getting creative, walmart is doing what we always do. keeping prices low for you every day. so you can save money and live better. ♪ >>> stocks are selling off as they invest hig

we'll hear from brian deese and the president of the federal reserve bank of cleveland, loretta mester. and then...vaccinations for the youngest americans are set to begin this week. we'll ask former f.d.a. commissioner d dr. scott gottlib about the rollout. and as americans observe juneteenth, we'll hear from author and historian ibram x. kendi. it is all just ahead on "face the nation." ♪♪ >> brennan: good morning. and welcome to "face the nation." we have a lot to get to today, including some long-awaited covid news finalized just yesterday. nearly 20 million children will finally have access to coronavirus vaccines after the c.d.c. approved emergency use in infants, toddlers, and pre-schoolers. relief for parents, but there is more economic anxiety. fears of a recession are piling on top of struggles with inflation. the federal reserve hiked interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in the single largest increase in nearly three decades. but we begin with the crisis in our american democracy. the investigation into the january 6 attack and the elaborate scheming that l

away from its worst first half of the year since 1970 earlier this morning cleveland fed president mester said she backs 75 in july if conditions remain the same. >> if conditions were exactly the way they were today going into that meeting, like if the meeting were today, i would be advocating 75 because i haven't seen the kind of numbers on the inflation side that i need to see in order to, you know, think we can go back to a 50 increase. i think getting interest rates up to that 3% to 3.5% is really important that we do that and do it expeditiously and do it consistently as we go forward. so it's after that point where i think there's more uncertainty about how far we'll need to go in order to rein in inflation. >> jim, she said it was not a precipitating event. >> i have to tell you, one of those mornings where you see the dow futures up then you read the research everything's horrendous. you have people saying, listen, here's 27 internet stocks down, 22 semiconductors down bitcoin, we can't profit up any more but the bed bath was benchmark it may be the new brass standard bed, bath &

. >> what do you expect mester to say from the prism of what brainard said yesterday. we'll see, but it is hard to see a pause in september. markets hold off a bit on that, it did come back as stocks did, but nonetheless, we know june and july are set barring a shocker. >> right. >> it is what comes after that is the open question. >> so there's some play there, but not the most play i am interested in. i like watching the market take a story like a football and run with it. sometimes they run the wrong way to the wrong end zone. this idea of pause in september, i don't think it was going to happen to me, it was 50 in september or 25 in september. i don't think the fed is near stopping brainard said i'm not sure about that, but paused that's not on, i thought it was interesting to see the market sell off on that. you thought there was going to be a pause even with the fed rate outlook that we created by my grea producer betsy spring, all the play in the market, it is that middle bar the month moves, the rate moves. when is the peak rate coming, june '23, august '23 wha

according to the cbs news polling, most americans feel abortion should be legal within the first tri-mester. a third say it should be legal after that as well. if you're saying you can't talk this out with your state legislature, can you at least put it on the ballot? does the public get to decide here? how do you move forward? >> so 70% of the people in our state do support a woman being able to make that choice herself. whether that is a choice they would make or not. i am horrified, as are so many women who are 50 jeyears old or in my generation, with the thought that my daughters will have fewer rights that i've had virtually my whole life. but i take heart in the fact that the vast majority in this state support that right for a woman to choose. there are independents out here and we need them to join this fight. >> brennan: but if you put it out there to the public, they have to pick and make a specific statement here. is anything less than roe possible? is compromise possible? >> i think compromise is possible. we have already seen michigan enact some restrictions on abortion. we hav

loretta mester can say what she wants about not seeing the hurricane. she may be in the eye of one and not able to see it i think brian moynihan at the bank of america is a different circumstance i'm inclined to believe jamie dimon. in terms of the numbers they're good numbers, but to jim's point i think good numbers are not good for the market. >> it could be cat one or super storm sandy, so you cover the basis when it comes to the severity of the hurricane about to hit the economy, pete maybe it is fair we don't need to necessarily know if there's a recession on tap, but if businesses believe things are going to be tough and the consumer is going to start girding and battening down their hatches. >> whoa, nice work >> i mean we're using hurricane, so you might as well continue with this tonight. then that, in fact, causes a slowdown which the markets may not have priced in yet >> well, i think, mel, more importantly than anything is i think this is very industry specific when i say that, i mean technology stocks. if you go through list of who is doing

. >> and that was mark mester reporting for us tonight. >> just the lawyers are stepping up to try torotect women in the event. the supreme court overturns roe versus wade. a ukrainian official talks about the expected length of that war has western countries promised more weapons. plus, state lawmakers are making efforts to try to improve cal fire staffing their plan to keep this fire season a safe as this fire season a safe as possible. oh, wow barbara corcoran! good morning. sorry, but we don't need any business help now. we're gigillionaires. what? we're gigillionaires now. i don't get it we have at&t business fiber with hyper-gig speeds. -but i just... -so thanks, we're doing great. i'm so happy for you! but i'm just here for my order. oh. entre-pin-eurs? yeah, my bowling team. i like it. there's money in puns. do business like a gigillionaire at&t business fiber, now with speeds up to 5-gigs. limited availability. ♪ dry eye symptoms keep driving you crazy? inflammation in your eye might be to blame. let's kick ken's ache and burn into gear! over-the-counter eye drops typically w

today we hear from, sparking and loretta mester. how much to the signal the market has gotten ahead of itself? how much do they have to ratify what the market is pricing in an terms of a hawkish monetary policy? at 7:50 p.m., going back to the yen, the bank of japan monetary policy minutes come out for the month of april. how much of the talk about the? weakening in the? yen the fact that we are still near those record lows given this policy divergence between japan and the rest of the world. tom: this is off the radar this morning. lisa, your chart, it is real simple. you have a chart and then in march it breaks and it is nothing but a weaker yen. in international economic, this is the debate. lisa: it is what a lot of traders are trying to fight for. it feels completely unsustainable but they will move at their own pace. they are giving you tea leaves about when they might move or what the threshold might be. tom: twitter with the headline out moments ago. i am trying to get that out right. i saw that and then it disappeared. twit

i'll do it i'm confusing people cleveland fed president loretta mester said if economic conditions remain the same at the july meeting she's going to add vocate for 75 basis points she told cnbc she would make a supply and demand conditions part of the meeting in order to determine her preferred path of monetary tightening she weighed in on the risks of a recession in the u.s. economy. >> my baseline forecast is for growth to be slower this year than it was last year, 5.5%, which is extremely high. we're going to see some slower growth this year but that's okay because that's what we're trying to do. we're trying to get demand moderated so it's more in line with that constraint supply. >> we get it sad that you like demand to be as strong as possible, it's just the supply that's the issue. so when you have limited supply, that's going to cause prices to go up. but we've talked about it again and again and again. that's no way to really run things to try to dampen economic activity we want a high gdp but if the supply chains are constricted you don't want the inflation it would be preferab

we've heard the same story from loretta mester.d a similar story from john williams of the new york fed step growth is expected to slow to 1.5%. they are not going to forecast the recession, are they? tom: i thought it very responsible. 900? jonathan: the open takeover. looking forward to it. tom: this is your conversation on the state of the black sea down to the mediterranean. julie norman has a number of abilities on u.s. politics. the foundation is her academics on the arab spring and she joins us this morning. it's off the radar of america, and congratulations to the washington post for writing it up a couple of days of go. from tunisia to cairo and back up to odessa and coming in from ukraine, it's not working now. how urgent is the upset in tunisia? how urgent is the pending upset in egypt? >> it's a good question. unrest in tunisia has been there since the for this current crisis. in egypt and other parts of north africa and central africa, we are seeing the impact of prices going up around the world. some of those areas wh

afternoon, two fed heads and incoming dallas fed president lori logan at noon and cleveland fed president mesterng out for earnings from lululemon and crowdstrike and okta and rh. a busy day coming up on thursday. >>> back to the markets as investors kickoff the month on a sour note. in a note to clients yesterday, jpmorgan chase analyst says the s&p will end the year unchanged as investors quote absorbed an priced in aggressive policy changes from the federal reserve. adding we remain positive on risky assets due to near record low positioning and bear sentiment and our view there will be no ression given support from u.s. consumers and global post-covid reopening and china stimulus and recovery. the comments come in the face of the comments from his ceo jamie dimon. that investors should brace for an economic hurricane. joining me on this debate is victoria fernandez at global investments. victoria, who has it right jamie dimon or marko >> dom, look, i never want to go against jamie dimon when it comes to these things, but marko -- we're more in his camp than jamie dimon at this point you talk

i think loretta mester made hers it was good news that the michigan survey revised down the long-term expectations i think they'll take some comfort in that. we're on high alert for any signs that longer term inflation expectations are unanchoring and i think will be quite vigilant against that and it's going to hurt a little bit. they're going to have to do qt, tighten and we'll have rates of 3% in the front end before you know it. >> and, alicia, is that why you still seem pretty confident the bottom is not in is this more like a bottom isn't in but don't try to find a bottom anyway and you're dipping in and think people should be looking for bargains or the bottom isn't in yet so stay away for a bit until we get a better signal >> just a couple things first on jay powell he signaled in the last couple of speeches that he's willing to risk the recession because fighting inflation at this point is the priority because you can't run an economy with high inflation that is ongoing. so the fed is willing to risk a recession. in fact, the reason we think the bottom is not in is not simply

♪ >> if the fed those 75, i think a fair amount of tightening is built into the market if loretta mester 4% next year, then i think we are seeing an inverted yield curve. tom: kathy jones of charles schwab, she was in -- she has been on fire reporting where we are right now. certainly, what we have heard this morning is a difference of opinion. the heated debate of this june already. we are preparing to hear from the president of the united states in madrid, we will bring that to you as we see all of america waiting to hear his comments on the history of what we saw at nato, and his return to an 8% inflation in america. right now, we are going to try and squeeze in a chart with kriti gupta. kriti: surging shipping rates, we just got that pce data and still accelerating, but less than a margin less than what we expected. there is the prewar inflation and the postwar inflation. commodity inflation, we are used to talking about. check out shipping rates, a lot of the issues we had with supply chains came down to these shipping rates. my chart of the day shows the cost it took to transport a

product of that and i ask you that in the context of i don't know, in the last ten days brainard, mester, bostic, others, said 50. they keep being surprised by the inflation reads and now they're being forced to react. what are we supposed to as investors make of it >> let me go back quickly to my comment on josh which i think maybe i was a little uncharitable one thing that has to happen, the fed has to catch up in terms of credibility i think that's what you're getting at credibility is not necessarily in the rate as in the approach to inflation and willingness to do what needs to be done and i think that's part of the pivot where it may be, remember, never forget, when tom hanks said in apollo 13 we just lost the moon when he got instructions from houston. we may have lost the soft landing, one way to say it powell has come to the conclusion he needs to sacrifice soft landing in return for credibility of the fed fighting inflation. and that is something that will help i'm not sure the market thinks the fed is not credible here but this is certainly something if it does 75 tomorrow, gu

stone, thanks for your time we appreciate it quick programming note, cleveland fed president loretta mesterin us tomorrow with her reaction to the jobs report that's around 1:30 p.m. eastern. >>> still ahead crowdstrike and okta if cyber is supposed to be a safe haven why have the stocks been struggling? sheryl sandberg stepping down from facebook, now meta, what does that tell us about the future for the social media giant and what legacy does she leave? more gainers than decline terse. boeing, the leader, surging 6% today. >>> welcome back let's check on markets which are near session highs, the dow up 185 points and that erases a 304-point loss top stock in the s&p today is solar edge after oppenheimer upped the name to outperform, expecting the industry to grow 3 to 5x the next decade. 334 price target, that's 25% upside it's up 11% of that today. and generac is the second best stock in the s&p today we are familiar with this name by now it's up 10% after ubs named it their top pick in energy seeing more than 80% upside not because of the generator business we know so well they're point

of more rate hikes from the fed which were reinforced earlier by cleveland fed president loretta mester. >> i'm not in the camp who thinks that we stop in september. i do think we need to bring the funds rate up and we probably will have to go above that long run fed funds rate in the s&p to be able to get inflation back down. >> now that closely echos what we heard yesterday from federal reserve vice chair lael brainard when asked about a september pause. >> if we are seeing a deceleration in the monthly prints, it might make sense to be proceeding at a slightly slower pace. right now it's very hard to see the case for a pause we've still got a lot of work to do to get inflation down to our 2% target. >> let's bring in charlie and joseph to talk about all of this and the markets. joe, i'd love to start with you. that's a pretty consistent theme obviously from fed officials saying inflation is job one. the economy is strong enough for them to go relatively fast what does it mean as an investor right now? we've already priced in a fair bit of financial conditions tightening and valuation

. >> mark mester has a closer look at how crews are getting ready. >> and all saying, i know that there's some hesitation said it's climate change. i'm not a scientist, but i've been doing this 40 plus years and i've never seen fire spread the way it does. fire agencies from across southern california. >> gathering to provide an update on the 2022 fire season. already 4 months ahead of where we should be, which is far ahead of where historically were at fire. officials say the conditions are dry or their hotter. and with historic drought, fighting fires is now something done. year round. >> have a fire season that went from september to december. >> we've sent strike teams of engines out every month of the year. officials are now remind the public to do its part and stopping the next wildfire. you get to join our team. we will provide the offense and we want you to provide the defense. >> in the east bay, a man is clinging to life after being injured by illegal fireworks. kron four's haaziq madyun reports on the first major injury tied to illegal fireworks in our area so far this year. >>

jumbo 75 basis point rate hike to help quell raging inflation while cleveland fed president loretta mester said whatever the fed does it'll take at least two years for inflation to fully cool down and overnight i told you lots of headlines, china sending a message it will not follow the fed's lead or the four other central banks around the world which tightened their rates last week. china has left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as its economy tries to emerge from the smackdown of its covid lockdowns this news is developing. chinese e-commerce giant j. d. .com which year-to-date has lost 7% but climbed 16% so far this quarter, reporting bad news its annual shopping extravaganza known as 6-18 for june 18 showed slowest sales growth in company history. this is significant, folks, because it's china's second- biggest shopping event behind alibaba's singles day and while the u.s. energy markets are closed brent which trades in london and is the global benchmark for oil prices resuming its march higher and after rallying 43% last week, europe's natural gas futures jumped bias much as 9%

on "face the nation" loretta mester said it would take a while to get inflation down but noted inflation risks are going up joining us is chief market strategist tony dwyer. good to talk to you. can you buy into this rally with fed officials still coming out like that and sounding very hawkish, talking about three-quarters of a percentage point rate hike again in july? >> sara, thanks for having me. great to talk to you you've got to be the most nimblest of traders. as you know, we expected a summer rally or pretty good bounce, as mike said, so appropriately. you have this historic oversold condition. but ultimately when i think back to when i got into the business in may of 1987, i can't remember a for real market correction, not just a couple of weak kind of crashy type things where the fed was getting more hawkish as the market was going down. typically we try to differentiate between a bottom, quote, unquote, and the bottom until we see the fed signal, not necessarily change interest rate policy but signal a change is coming, i think we'll just stay on the sidelines unless you're sup

charles: loretta mester's been talking about the last 24 hours, and just moments ago she says there'sunderlying change in demand destruction. i'm going to ask about that, but trying to erase this notion that there's only going to be two 50-basis point hikes. bahnsen said that a week ago and got the fed going. so are we getting, now having to ajust to that as investors? >> i think we're really doing a lot of damage with all this talk, and we should really stop talking at this point. keep the markets offguard -- off guard a little bit. we'll get a handle on this. charles: yeah. i think in the communication thing has gone too far as well. another problem for these markets, folks, crude oil spiking again. you know, you could really argue it's the number one dark cloud because it's over the economy and the stock the market. let me go back to you, scott, on this. you've got to believe it's going to go to 12 the 5 just from technical -- 125 just from technical factors, but can we get this market back on track with crude bushing like this? -- gushing like this? >> we can, charles, but the mar

charles: i want to talk about that, phil, mester pointed to gas and food prices, it has outsized effectn inflation expectations. she said those expectations become unanchored when the fed has to be more forceful this is the part seems nonsensical to me if the outside expectations are driven by the supply side why is the fed beating down the demand side? >> they're worried about a spillover effect. one thing to have inflation focused on two areas, specifically oil and gas but when it spills over into consumer psyche, ending up they have to spend more, increase their wages to keep up, then we get 1975 to 1980, we get wage spiral increased inflation, they feed off even other. that has the fed -- charles: what about the supply side? again all of these rate hikes, all of the jawboning, when is that, why, i don't know understand how beating that up will change our infrastructure, the structural nature of our supply side? >> in the end they want demand structure. charles: bottom luna, bottom line. slow down demand. excess demand, limited supply. they want to reverse that. charles: i had a gues

>> powell will never give you the explicit guidance that the president mester did these are the numbersand say we're keeping an eye on how they react to not just the data itself. >> i don't want to lapse into opinion here, but there seems to be a credibility issue how do they restore it >> by sticking to this course of getting rid of inflation no matter what it takes and no matter what it takes is allowing the unemployment rate to drift up and growth to slow down and go negative. that's credibility. >> bill, does he also need to explain their thinking a lot of americans think this is only because of oil and that has nothing to do with the fed does he need to explain better why monetary policy is here? >> all he mes is one sentence was to go to wage price controls and we, aggregate supply and a freg at demand and we need to bring down to where supply is. >> do you say to people can't we just increase the supply instead? >>he can easily fluff that off to someone else. supply side is something he has no control over. the demand side is where he has absolute control and that's where he will

and then loretta mester's from the cleveland fed making a similar point. she went a step further and saying it is going to be heightening a risk of a recession in the u.s. it seems like the whole narrative in the u.s. has gone from when can inflation be cooled down to the brace for this to last for some time to come. yvonne: i'm looking at commodities. it seems like everything is in the red. every reached a point where we are seeing depend destruction -- seeing demand destruction? >> and key developed economies, we are seeing consumer spending slowdown. on this end of the production chain any asia, manufacturers saying there demand is slowing down. there are signs of demand destruction. the fact that economists are ramping up their warnings now does show you the path we are on. rishaad: it was perceived as being a supply side issue only. that narrative has changed somewhat. this is a blame game. the government -- to the government spends much money? to they put too much money into consumers pockets or is a lot of it coming from the supply chain? that is co

kathleen: later loretta mester amplified other points made.e inflation story and what it will mean for rate hike continuing or pausing. >> if by september if that monthly readings on inflation provide compelling evidence and it is moving down, rates could slow but if it is failing to moderate, a faster pace of rate increases could be necessary. kathleen: so will the jobs report that people think maybe won't be as hot going to change the message we are hearing from the fed? payroll is expected to rise 320,000. that's a healthy report but it would be able -- it would be the first time they have been below 400,000 in over a year. the unemployment rate is supposed to hold at 3.6% of the lowest since 1969. paychecks are rising at a 5.2% year-over-year rate. not as hot as 5.5% but in the average, the average has been less so it is still a strong member. stephen stanley said it well. the fed is focused on inflation, that determining what they are going to do. inflation drives their decisions. not the labor market. so they will observe this but the fo

that's pretty good reflecting the ism yesterday on the exchange we will be talking to loretta mester.ack to its better self and better days. m plus or minus 200,000 is not crazy. >> clearly no sampling model or anything was built to figure out exactly what's been gone on the last couple of years although the relative strength or weakness in leisure hospitality seems to resonate. that seems to be a little bit of a cooling off area of the economy when it comes to wage growth which is something we're all going to be fixated on friday morning as well >> very quickly, home base, that's one of the hr software companies, they're reporting early signs of leveling off in wages. we maybe saw hints of that yesterday in the beige book. so that's something to watch and our survey also has some suggestion that at least workers who have received pay raises are also satisfied with their jobs so maybe, maybe, maybe it's really hard to know i don't have the algorithm in my head either to figure out the pandemic, but maybe we are getting to equilibrium in wages. >> steve, thanks very much >> pleasure. >

loretta mester said the risk summer session are higher and it will take a number of years to get thatget of inflation. do they have to reassess what the target has to be? do they have to adjust the inflation target given levels at 8.6%? 2%, when do they get there, is it realistic? jennifer: adjusting the inflation target right now would add to the issues. that would reduce your credibility. there are a lot of transient forces keeping u.s. inflation and other economies high, notably commodity prices. if commodity prices start to ease off, and even if they don't, the strong statistical effect small drive inflation down quite a long way. the key risk is whether underlying inflation, wages, stays relatively high going forward. that is where we will start to raise rates even further. tom: you would make the case that inflation will fall quite sharply toward the end of the year. is that a headline level, how much of that is down to comparisons jennifer: a lot of it is down to comparisons but we also expect commodity prices to ease up later in the year as global growth starts to soften. that