mester doesn't think we've seen peak inflation yet. and my question earnestly asked is what are they looking at? and i'm not saying what in the world are they looking at? i'm saying what are they looking at are they looking at owner equivalent rent or case schiller home prices which are rolling over, or are they looking at market based rent indications which are rolling over, and there's evidence and new articles on that galore. i can go on and on the question -- >> they don't care about -- they don't care about as -- said to me in my question to him on twitter headline inflation is irrelevant to this story, really food and energy they don't care about that they care about the more sticky core elements of inflation, which they clearly think haven't peaked steve, though, at some point based on what jim is saying because i think in many respects he's right, i mean no progress on inflation i mean, at some point do you have to call the credibility into question again when you hear comments that seem to fly in the face of metrics that are c

big interday turnaround for stocks, even shrugging off midday comments by the fed's horrorloretta mester that more needed we're tracking everything from the macro to main street russia attacking energy infrastructure, irani oil workers going on strike. new fights between the white house and opec what does it all mean for energy prices and inflation ahead we'll dig in and if inflation is really beginning to slow down, will some stocks get set to pop we're going to allow down just a little bit of optimism why not. our trader naming one group that certainly could rally. all of that ahead coming up on "the exchange. let us begin with those macro markets, because they have made a nice turnout at one point, the dow was down about 128 points we are on our highs of the session. we are up 359 right now. the nasdaq was down until really moments ago. a sharp reversal from this morning. which is interesting, because you've got some, i would call it, negative comments from the fed's loretta mester however, those comments not doing much to derail the gains she was talking about more restrictive policy

look at charlie evans of the chicago fed, loretta mester, chris waller speaking earlier today.ou can see, inflation expectations are high. headed up to 4.5% to 4.75. that is the message from the fed. kathleen: what about --haidi: what about what the fed is saying for the jobs market? historically we have seen under treating in recessionary conditions and downgrading activity. could this be a different set of circumstances we are seeing for the jobs market in the u.s.? kathleen: so far the fed has said they see a still strong labor market. people were talking about jobless claims rising. at 219,000, that is still below the pre-pandemic level, 224,000. the question is, how week will it get? the concern is growing that if you have a recession it will get weaker. payrolls at 255, less than the month before. that is considered a healthy jobs gain. unemployment is steady at 3.7%. still at a 50 year low. average dollar lee earnings, 5.0% year-over-year from 5.2 percent, slowing down a little bit but still double the pre-pandemic rate of wage gain. this is a solid report, at least for

. >> you sound like mester >> mester's my hero.ester's, like, the surprise player in the playoffs you know versus somebody like -- >> don't talk about the playoffs i don't want to talk about the playoffs i don't want to talk about the playoffs >> but -- mester -- >> don't >> okay. >> we're going to get kashkari in a little bit too. when we come back, there's intel to talk about, reportedly planning to cut thousands of jobs we'll get to lvmh, comcast, boeing, meta, when we return >>> it does appear that intel will join the list of tech companies implementing layoffs the chip maker plans to cut thousands of jobs amid the slowdown in the pc market. the report says some of the divisions, including in sales and marketing, could see cuts of about 20% of staff >> i keep saying that the real weakness in this economy is going to prove to be silicon valley, where there's just tremendous excess. we have to remember that the numbers from gardner were calling for an absolute collapse i mean, just a falling off a cliff, pcs intel's trying to kee

been this hot and by the way, you had a break because the cleveland guardians' president, loretta mestertold you this, and she's doing the -- someone was saying the board's doing -- i like the board. but she's doing the quality work she identified all these as problems >> the response to this number, service as inflation, x energy, is up. >> of course what's come down in your daily life, what's come down >> used cars have come down but not enough >> can't get one >> but services can tend to be stickier in terms of maintaining that level >> right >> and therefore, there are those in the market today who believe that the fed is going to have to go higher for longer as a result of the services component of this number being higher than had been anticipated. >> ed bastion was on this morning. numbers are great. he's raising numbers well, that's -- what are we supposed to say? i guess that's going in the right direction? there's nothing going in the right drirection anyone who's gone to the supermarket, which i do, david, i do the shopping, as grim as that is. grim because of the prices and y

shery: cleveland fed president loretta mester with bloomberg' kathleen hays.hinks a new macro development has been an awakening of bond vigilantes. let's bring in michael metcalfe, global head of strategy at state street bank. we are seeing a tug-of-war, how much are we starting to see breaking points in different markets whether it is u.k. or liquidity in the treasury space or dysfunction in the markets as well? michael: i think what we saw in the u.k. is the most obvious place where things are broken. central banks, all of a sudden, have this conflict between their role as lender of last resort and their inflation target. it is going to be interesting to see how the bank of england to get through that in the next couple of weeks big you have to think it is going to need serious hiking at the front end of the curve to reassert their inflation fighting credibility while at the same time, providing liquidity at the long end of the curve as lender of last resort. shery: we heard from governor bailey that he would be ending boe support this friday. and we have th

new this season the fda approved a new whooping cough vaccine for pregnant women in their third tri-mester, which is the only way to protect babies until they're old enough to be vaccinated themselves t. >>> berkeley police want you to take a look at the two men in this surveillance video. they say it shows them walking into an apartment building and stealing mail. they posted the surveillance video filmed recently during the overnight hours. this is outside of an apartment building on le conte avenue near campus. you can see one man casually walk up to a security box, it appears they have a key. then he and another man walk inside to the mailboxes. we spoke with the building manager, who says the thieves took several items. >> then they came in and they just started opening up these boxes, and they're just rifling through and taking the mail out. one of them grabbed a package that was here and they just went on their way. >> the u.s. postal service has $10,000 reward for information relating to the arrest and conviction of the two men involved. >>> talk about being in the right place at t

all the majors took flight just before noon eastern time when federal reserve voting member loretta mester of the cleveland fed stretched her hawk wings this afternoon. the cleveland fed bank president said, in essence, investors, markets, mortgage brokers, the guy who makes bagels around the corner should stop thinking, wishing and hoping that the fed is about to pause on its interest rate hiking cycle. she said not only should people expect more rate hikes this year, but do not look for interest rate cuts in 2023. she said the fed has yet to, quote, make any progress on lowering inflation and that the biggest risk is not recession, but not hiking rates enough. nasdaq was down nearly 2% before she spoke, as i said, completely raced it and now is back down at the moment by 1.5. we're going to keep an yeeging -- eagle eye on the nasdaq because, folks, if something grounds the bulls even worse in the next 59 minutes and the nasdaq closes down 39 points or more, that will shove it into bear territory. you can see that in august. nasdaq, vulnerable because semiconductors are getting is. >> --

that's been the baseline message coming out of almost all fed speakers including from loretta mester in her prior comments so what you're looking for is the turn or a little bit of the moderation of that message and perhaps you got it in the vice chair last night i don't think we want to make too much of it this is all perhaps scrutinizing it a little too minutely but i think that's the reason that the market was able to take heart in one set of comments and more or less look beyond the more recent one. >> all right, mike, thank you very much. let's turn now, shall we, to the technicals of the market with the s&p just above the key 3600 level. i thought it was 3750. now they say it's at another key level, 3600. whatever leadership stocks like apple and tesla, they are just off their 52-week lows dan fitzpatrick is founder and chief market analyst with stock market mentor.com. dan, welcome good to see you, sir >> hey, tyler, thanks for having me >> we're delighted to have you here though i'm not delighted to quote what you say in my notes, and that is that the s&p can fall another 20%

last week one of the top fed officials, loretta mester said inflation has not yet peaked.ow much worse will it get n your view? >> well, i -- you know, it is hard to know how much worse it will get because what people really care a lot about is energy prices where things are really volatile. i think the thing economists are worried about, when we strip out those volatile food and energy prices and we look underneath that core inflation, and that's the stuff that's hard to bring down. and when that hit, you know, 6.6%, i think that, you know, made people very worried about how long that will last. and, you know, some of this, because we're going to see housing prices, rental prices continue to go up because a lot of the values of the homes already out there and that hasn't filtered through to cpi. and then there are people out there whose wages are so far below in real terms where they were, they're clamoring for a raise. i think those are the folks who aren't ready to say, you know, i'm going to keep working at my current nominal wage. i think that's the kind of risk we're

some of the others we just ran through in that lovely series of quotes, let's take a look at loretta mester, inflation unacceptably high. chris waller sees rate hikes into next year. charlie evans, you heard him, 4.5% to 4.75 percent. he thinks supply chain forces are getting more into this inflation trend, that is a danger. neel kashkari quite a ways away from a pause. he is a dove that became one of the hawks leading the pack. that's where they are. waller said today a soft landing is still possible, but the landing strip is shrinking. that's one reason they want to hit it hard now. they say they have to slow the economy down now to avoid having to slow it down even more later if they do not do enough. i think that is the thinking and will be by november 2 when they have the next meeting. rishaad: as you were talking about growth, i wanted to bring up the kpmg ceo survey which came out day before yesterday, which highlighted the 91% of ceo's they surveyed believe there will be recession. 57% think it will be take deep one. kathleen: when you raise rates like this this fast, look what happ

new york's john williams, really important, dallas, cleveland's loretta mester, mary daly all due to speak. i wonder where the reaffirmation will come from across the fed speak. dani: and the jobs data really important as we look for cracks in the labor market. we will be speaking to the head of pinks bank research, they have been writing about why time have been writing about why time may be running out and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you need done. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. just search or scroll to see upf on hundreds of projects. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness it's easy to make your home an a check out angi.com today. angi... and done. >> i'm totally mystified, surprised that fed officials don't seem to acknowledge that just focusing on the fed funds rate as part of monetary tightening is a mistake. when you also have qt and a soaring dollar, these are very restrictive monetary developments. i think they will

kathleen: all we have to do is listen to what loretta mester chose -- told us about when four hours ago on this very network, these very shows, that she still sees the fed has a ways to go to get restrictive. that has been the kind of commentary we have heard from most officials, and fed minutes totally back that up because they affirm that the inflation fight commitment -- they are all on board with that, but these comments about calibration that caught the markets' attention, and i think a lot of economist'' attention, too, because they are talking about highly uncertain global economic and financial environment, right? we know this is a big topic and maybe they have to calibrate. they are saying the pace of further policy tightening in order to mitigate the risk of significant adverse effects, but you get this sense that some are looking around and saying we have to keep going. we have to be restrictive, but we better be mindful of what is going on. the vice chair of the fed had a speech a couple days ago where she was talking about a little more caution as we move ahead. she basical

loretta mester said we have to get up to what she considers the terminal rate. true they confirmed the inflation fight. a couple key phrases. they are looking down the road. particularly in the highly uncertain global economic environment, look at what is going on in the u.k., it would be important to calibrate further tightening with significant adverse effects on the economic outlook. if you look at the minutes, these are quite half-and-half. they made it clear, they are going to maintain the restrictive class -- stance. the risk as they go forward will become more two-sided. lael brainard, vice chair of the fed, said recently that the fed needs to start looking at more data dependent moves. as they look at the tightness being talked about in markets. neel kashkari, he said there is a very high bar for a pivot, for me, he said. the bar is very high because we have not yet seen much evidence that the underlying inflation, services inflation, wage inflation, labor market, that that is yet softening. that is the message from the last jobs report. neel kashkari, w

earlier this month, loretta mester said more aggressive hikes are needed that debate around the dovishd pivot is rearing its head once again. >>> u.s. tech giants are set to report this week alphabet and microsoft will release results for third quarter with cloud growth and advertising in focus meta will follow with the earnings on wednesday and apple and amazon will close off the week on thursday now all of these tech earnings come after a dire profit warning from spotify excuse me. snap snap with huge pressures on ad revenue. this is something that investors will watch closely also costs focus on costs and if the tech giant will focus more to cut costs as we enter a more difficult economic environment all of this to play for u.s. futures at the moment. we have red across the board dow jones industrial average looking to pull back 100 nasdaq and s&p pulling back modestly all of this after extremely strong finish last week. s&p rallying 2.4% on friday. driven by the materials sector s&p gained 4.7% overall. the strongest weekly performance. nasdaq gained about 5.2% european equities ar

. >> let's begin with the markets, inflation, and the fed we'll get mester, actually, twice today, jim> oh, geez. >> were you at all impressed by the s&p unwinding that 2% intraday drop? >> i thought it was kind of amazing, because it shows you that there is -- i know that jason was talking about it, some put that's out there no i mean, i think there's money that feels like, wait a second, the downside is -- we've seen, and we can test it, maybe even fail initially but there's a lot of people who just say, look, we're kind of done with the selling. we have had -- i mean, i thought the leader of the bounceback, the semiconductors, i mean, the semiconductors have been in purgatory since november of last year that's how long, david november of last year, the semis have been going down let's watch them i mean, the premarket, they're always down because, well, that's what they do. but this was a remarkable turn of the semis, which i just felt were not allowed to go up. >> is it sustainable, though that's the question. >> today's the day to find out >> today is the day? >> yeah, because yest

figured out a way to minimize misinformation in my news feed, enter muted feeds, kashkari, bostick, mester i think they're making mistakes. yesterday, atlanta fed bostick gave a speech. here is the title, staying purposeful and resolute in the bat bell against inflation. he says the committee, fomc, they will not overreact but he admitted it would guarranty if they did react he guaranteed it would send us into deep recession. they know the stakes. what are your thoughts? they keep saying they will go hard and hard, not stop, knowing we could go into deep recession? >> hi, charles. this is classic cognitive dissonance on one hand, recognizing we're going into the most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades with the highest debt construct ever. it is by definition dangerous. in my view they actually should slow down, pause, reassess because as bostick himself said, they don't know what the lag effects are. yet we have all the fed governors go out there to talk about certainty, what they're going to do in 23, especially what they're not going to do, i.e., not cutting rates. they don't know. th

so, professor, doesn't this report today vindicate the fed does it vindicate the mesters and all those who said it's not close to a peak and doesn't it prove you and others wrong >> i don't think so. let me tell you why. let's go to the housing sector up 0.7%. that is totally ridiculous housing prices by every indicator are going down not up. even rentals, yes, they're going from contracts, going up from a year ago bought talk to the people on it they said i can't get the jumps i got earlier this year. that should be minus 0.7%, which by the way wipes out for inflation for september. let me give you a really interesting fact the distorted way the government does housing statistics from march of 2020 the beginning of the pandemic until this summer when the housing market peaked, all the best housing or the government indicators housing was up 40% what do you think the cpi housing factor was up? 11% because of the lag way it put the rising prices in what does this mean? we have so much more inflation over the last year and a half because of inflation wasn't in that housing sector. and no

because the federal reserve really does have to take its cue from cleveland fed president loretta mesterrates relentlessly even as the unemployment rate starts to climb higher she recognizes that only a ruthless series of rate hikes can break the back of wage inflation in this environment. particularly when the federal government's behind it that's why the sifrp's more precarious than usual. if the federal government hadn't injected so much stimulus and if the federal reserve had gotten tighter earlier on we wouldn't be in this jam now jay powell has to destroy at least one job for every new job biden wants to create. because we have way too many jobs and too few people. it is a real conundrum the federal government's never going to take back money it's allocated for these projects intel can fire 20% of its workforce and that doesn't mean the feds are going to pull its subsidies away to build new facilities in ohio it never works like that but to me i don't see how we end up with only a very slight recession unless the federal government cuts back on spending either by rolling back subsi

who's on the voting roster next year, but if you look at all the presidents, you can see that loretta mesterthe cleveland fed tends to be on the hawkish side and you can see that mary daly at the san francisco fed, among others, charlie evans who goes off the committee soon, are people who might be more to wait i think the people to really watch are lael brainerd, the vice chair, and the two new appointees to the board of governors, phil jefferson and lisa cook. we know that in general, lael brainerd has tended to be on the dovish side. of course, like all the fed members -- the fmoc members, they're hawkish on inflation it's become the priority but i would n't be surprised to see her quietly separate from the chairman and we don't know much about what lisa cook and phil jefferson think about monetary policy they're new to the board and have been basically reciting party line so i can see like in january, february, march next year, some of the biden appointees may begin to get a little antsy about the pace of rate increases. >> very interesting. david. no one can take us in the room quite th

kathleen: many fed officials including loretta mester who spoke with us just yesterday was making that same kind of point. we have to see inflation coming down. michelle bowman speaking in new york, she said sizable hikes should be on the table unless inflation falls. sustainably, that kind of a fall, not just a pullback. who knows what we are going to see thursday. but this is the key. i think they are looking to doing this eventually at some point, but for now the data has to show that is the right thing to do. haidi: that commitment to the cause continues. kathleen hays joining us from washington. it seems like everyone is a macro trader in this inflation driven era. our chief correspondent from asia, more looking at the cpi print, although we have talked about how impactful this one thing -- >> there was a lot of potential for misleading of what comes out when it comes to the cpi report. it is a very interesting difference, with the fed is doing. the rba industry earlier -- in australia it said it looks like something needs to be done. there was nothing that clear from the fed. the

and that mester's right, because things are so hot, and there's nothing in the -- maybe retail salesttle week, but the pushback i got yesterday was, you think things are so hot, but you know that credit has become very difficult to get. and you know that mortgages are difficult to get i'm not hearing that on the call so far but that's the big rap is you just wait. it's not so much that the mortgages are seven. you're just not going to get credit >> a lot of travel names doing well this story about united yesterday, jim, potentially weighing an order for 100 wide bodies, would be one of the biggest orders ever. >> good. it's an extremely full flight. i mean, how many years now do we have to go over that that would be amazing. those stocks, i speak to a lot of executives and lebeau does too. this is a halcyon time for travel we've been waiting for those planes all the companies that are in the plane business, different parts, finally going to happen american was good. i mean, american went down to 12 and that's where it was during the beginning of the pandemic. i think delta is a huge

loretta mester and chen chicago fed president charlie evans at 1:00 p.m.ller will speak at 5:00 p.m. >>> joining us on the markets is mimi duff. good to have you on to talk about fixed income do you see stresses or strains similar to what we saw in the uk last week whenever that was? everything is mushing together that was last week >> it was last week. it feels like it is all blending together there are a few strains in the u.s. mashrkets. i would say on the tail end of the instability of the uk with mortgage rates gap wider that was one bit of instability. i think they've since recovered as the be global rates have recovered off the highs. i think that all of this stuff is connected at the end of the day. >> i just wonder, mimi, if you stay at zero for a long time and we can date it -- if you want to date it during the pandemic or all the way back we have been in emergency mode with qe and everything else for more than a decade if the absolute level where we head on interest rates doesn't seem historically that high, does the speed at which we get there