dani: loretta mester says she would have gone 50 bips last meeting.ames bullard urging for more rate hikes. they are nonvoting members. that combined with a similar message is helping sink stocks in the u.s. this morning, and in asia. manus: it's a jolt. as you say, they are nonvoting members. esther reichelt is fx strategist at commerzbank. a jolt to the short end, 50 basis points, dollar's losses this year are gone, what scale of pandora's box has bullard and mester open for you? good morning, as there. esther: you've already mentioned quite a few times, they are both nonvoters. they are known to be more on the hawkish side of the spectrum. they are saying it is -- what they are saying is not a surprise. it is not evidence of where the fed or dollar is going. i would look more on the speakers today, which are more to the center and more reflecting the consensus in the fomc. but the focus right now is on higher fed rates. and that is supporting the u.s. dollar. dani: it is supporting dollar. what happens though, i guess it is the no landing scenario,

fresh hawkish comments from presidents mester and bullard.ke a quarter point given the inflation and economic data. >>> shares of renaissance holdings sinking in asian trade. the chairman and ceo has gone missing. >>> the s.e.c. charging do kwon and his firm with defrauding investors. kwon founded terra farm and creator of the two depuck crypto coins that hammered the market last year. >>> and shares of doordash popping after stronger than expected earnings for the fourth quarter. the food delivery company wrapped up 2022 with the record 32 million monthly users shares up 5.5% in the extended trade. >>> shares of moderna are falling after the company announced a study that the flu vaccine had mixed results. it updated the vaccine and is working quickly to test it in the upcoming clinical trial. shares off. >>> 300,000 airline passengers in germany find themselves stuck with the 24-hour strike at seven airports in the country by union workers. more than 2,000 flights have been canceled in germany today alone. if you are heading for internation

says they should do enough neither mester or bullard says it should be viewed as restrictive. the nasdaq and s&p and dow with steep losses more than 1% lower for the indices led by the tech heavy index. as for week to date movement, we had a little more volatility the turn yesterday really standing out when we look at the course of the week week to date, the nasdaq is higher 1.2%. the s&p is flat. the tone is set by yesterday's session and that is continuing today as you saw european markets trading lower and asia markets selling off yesterday, we saw out performance. joumanna, i think it is worth pointing out that european markets closed out before the hawkish comments from the fed. to me, it evncapsulates that inflation is here longer and we may have more hikes from the fed. >> i was reminded by the maya angelou quote. this is exactly the situation i think we are finding ourselves in with the central banks. they say we are watching the data and if the data is stronger, we will keep with the rate hikes at the beginning of january, the market got in its head and the rest of th

we got a lot of it but it seemed the headline was cleveland fed president loretta mester. she brought price hikes back into the conversation. should the fed have gone 50 basis points in february? >> i don't think they should have gone 50. they are obviously having a dialogue now because of retail sales coming in stronger than expected and cpi and ppi showing expectations that inflation shifted a little bit. nothing moves in a straight line. when i look at the data longer-term, i think inflation has peaked but i think we will have pertiods where maybe that data backs up. maybe the equity market is handling this extremely well. if we had data like this over a month ago, markets would be down two or 3% area in one day and they are not doing that. i think the bond market is also handling this data well. yields are backing up but not aggressively. we haven't hit any new highs in the two year were on the 10 year. it is still possible we are in a peaking process for yields and that equities might have actually bottomed and we think they have. katie: the fact that we haven't seen

collins from boston, mester from cleveland, and jefferson and fed governor waller. they'll be in new york city on friday we have the chicago -- university of chicago school's monetary policy coming up. the comments of mester and bullard show the fed is not unanimous in the apparent new regime of responding to economic data through quarter-point hikes as the data come in. at least some still want to front-end load rate hikes. the market continues to price in the quarter for march. i think that's the most likely bet to go with, at least for now. guys >> steve, why? because the last two major data points we got, at least in my mind, the jobs report and the cpi number, i guess you could throw the ppi print in there, too, would suggest, hey, a 50-basis-point hike should not be off the table at all. why would they continue with 25 when they told us over and over again that the threat of letting inflation get out of control was so high? >> good question, jon. i think the issue is they wanted to downshift into something that was not as extreme for two reasons. one is there

end of the mester. >>se a when a truck hit my car, ethe insurance company >wasn't fair.idn't know what my case was worth, so i called the barnes firm. i'm rich barnes. it's hard for people to know how much their accident case is worth. let our injury attorneys help you get the best result possible. >>> people collect all kind of things. one teenager in connecticut has built up a unique and sparkly connection of prom dresses. >> now the high school student is giving them away for free. jillian says her sister came up with the idea a couple years ago because prom dresses are getting pricier. she opened up the makeshift boutique with gowns she collected by advertising on social media. 125 dresses were there for high schoolers could choose from. her says her goal toss make girls feel beautiful at prom without having to break the bank. does she want one from the 1980s? >> you never know. that is wonderful. it is so important to have a really nice dress to feel good in. you can watch us live on roku and amazon fire. >> here is what we're working on as we end this holiday weeke

--mester -- mester. producer prices come in hot. and setting records in france.arrels to a record close, topping 8000 for the u.s. markets weigh it down. we will see how much juice is left in europe. housing, hotels, and engineering. we are going to talk to executives for the view of the c-suite. i'm alix steel with my cohost, dani. trading u.s. equities is an untreatable mess. u.s. equities are an untreatable mess. i think that speaks really well to positioning and options and how we risk on the news right now in the equity market. dani: at least we are finally selling off today. at least it makes some sort of sense with yields at their highest for the year. right when the market thinks it has the fed figured out, it gets another hot piece of data to slap it in the face. alix: also initial jobless rolling over as well, maybe showing it is harder to get a new job if you have lost your old one, but the overall weekly claims number continuing lower. this is what we are talking about. at the meeting two weeks ago, i saw compelling economic case for a 50 basis point

. >> is he a voter this year i knknow mester is not >> reporter: jim was a voter last year, sara, ifistaken i did not update my notes. i don't think he's a voter this year that may not matter that the objective is for the board to come to consensus and people who are dissenting, it's rare on the board. there is a wing that wants to do more now the he believes front loading has been helpful, front loading rates has helped the fed get further in front of the inflation problem. >> it would be interesting if we seahe hawkish dissents >> reporter: just very quickly, there hasn't been much change in the probabilities we're looking at here, still 87% chance of a hike the fed funds market is not embracing this 50 at this moment >> we're seeing a little lower, down 300 now on the dow. steve, thanks. >> reporter: in stocks, yeah >> steve liesman >>> let's check in on the markets as we said, just a tad bit lower than we were ten minutes or so. the s&p down a percent it's been a down day all day, every sector lower, ever since we got that hot ppi report whole sale inflation numbers came in bette

with cleveland fed president loretta mester that is an important conversation >> she is the one. she is starting to look smart for we don't know how long until the economy says no. probably 50 is not necessary i'm waiting for it it's going to bite >> yeah. >> eventually the increases will have an effect >> they have already we don't know. >> that's our problem with information that looks back a quarter with companies looking back a month with government releases and things. things can change quickly. >>> today is the first anniversary of russia's invasion of ukraine after a year of war, there are no signs that the conflict will end any time soon. the u.s. is getting ready for another $2 billion in aid. china is now calling for a cease-fire in the opening of peace talks. the 12-point proposal that president xi has to end the war. president xi is expected to visit moscow with a summit with vladimir putin we will have a live report with eunice yoon. we will talk about the growing relationship with russia and china. the leader story, andrew, if you read between the lines u.s. set to

headlines were ppi and mester. we also had housing starts were unmitigated disaster.ing report was an unmitigated disaster. so does the fed really have to be as aggressive as they're advertising? >> i do. i think that they're going to have to raise by at least another 50 basis points and get the federal funds rate above 5%. that is not just me saying that. that is what the bond market is telling us. you know that inflation print from a couple days back, charles, cereal prices up 15% year-over-year. dairy prices up 14% year-over-year. this needs to be reined in. charles: yeah. >> consumer is now taking on credit card debt at unprecedented levels. the interest rate on that debt is also really high. and it is problematic, given a lot of americans are living paycheck to paycheck. the fact that "the wall street journal" came out with a headline advising people to skip breakfast to save money this is ridiculous. charles: yeah. >> the state of where we're at needs to slow down. >> no, i agree, when you start messing with my captain crunch we got a problem but you know this 5

so you come into this year, and everything is based on the fact that loretta mester does not have to fulfill that promise of higher interest rate hikes. there's about three more 25 basis point hikes priced in, we would agree with that. a lot has happened this month. as long as interest rate volatility comes down, i think a well diversified portfolio does very well this year. last time stocks and bonds both went down the in the same year, 1974. you don't position for things that happen once every 50 years. liz: okay. so you're saying this is the time to get in on both ends who? both ends, stocks and bonds. we're neutral on stocks, stopping short of saying we're overweight, but on the bond side i think, you know, starting from these level and if the fed fulfills only three more hikes, you're going to be the fine on the bond side. liz: okay. let's remember -- [laughter] that phil said that. paul, if we look right now at the fed funds futures, and this gives people an indication of how the market is betting, the probability by june that we will see rates at 5.25-5.5%, that is more than w

what they're trying to do -- the existential crisis at the fed is not mester these people come on and this with jamie dimon off camera the problem is, what do higher short-term rates really do to your business to make it so it's not doing as well? and the answer is, not much. not much because there's so much business there's so few people who want -- there's so many more jobs still than people, and jamie had this great letter in the "wall street journal" talking about, we got to solve immigration. well, jon ellis did a poll -- had some polling numbers the democrats and the republicans, the one thing they're united on, other than hating google, is that we must stop any immigration so, i don't know what people think the problem with immigration is in washington they don't like it but both sides don't like it you're not going to have it. >> there was an op-ed this week by two republican governors saying, look, maybe the states need to sponsor our own just statewide immigration and you can have some federal oversight, but that way, states can say, look, we'll take them even if another sta

you have mester and bullard speaking in favor of the 50 basis point rate hike when the fed meets next in march. neither of them are voting members. they were voting members last year, but not in 2023. they have influence. joe, i looked through the voting members. powell, williams, lael brainard. she will be stepping off to go out. i don't know who they put in austin goolsby he would have that vote there. harker is there. jefferson. neel kashkari. christopher waller richard, atlanta and san francisco. >> in recent meetings, how unanimous is it? >> it has been fairly close. >> they do what powell wants them to do >> mostly. i think they have discussions and that discussion definitely helps to determine where the vote will go that's why you have to listen even if you are not a voting member you have a voice. >> i'm trying to figure out if people are still affected by not doing anything for two years they are throwing caution to the wind or if there is money left from the stimulus programs this is lasting and the economy after what looked like it was starting to roll over a little and bac

waller mester will be here on "squawk b box. >>> and s&p down 1.5% this month.work in the s&p tracking etf may be warren buffett's best advice. it may turn the idea on its head the treasury trading the highest since november, but the shortened of the curve is looking at returns the yield is now 5%. even one-month bills are yielding 1.4%. and offering a 3.1% dividend yield and now is primetime to look at short-term opportunities. let's bring in john stoltzfus. >> thank you, frank. good to be with you on "wex. >> do you think that is the best place to put your money? >> it looks like a good idea right now. on the other hand, equities look like a good deal in the sense that equities recently have come back under pressure. bears moving in here on the uncertainty. concerns about the uptick we have seen in inflation questions to how long the fed has to raise our opinion has been no pause. no pivot from the fed until they get the job done in the meantime, there is opportunity for equity investors. if we look on the year to date, the s&p now has been bound up 4.5% the c

this is after these two comments from loretta mester and james bullard.had the ecb for isabel schnabel saying that she thinks there could be a mispricing on the market of how much they will have to do in terms of interest rate hikes. very hawkish message. that is putting extra pressure on a light of stocks. the sectors on the move, we had earnings and a couple the banks came out better than expected. analysts and shareholders are looking at the forward guidance. auto parts, construction, healthcare not losing as much as some of the other ones. technology is down 1.8%. media also down one point 3%. next week will mark one-year since russia's invasion of ukraine, and action that upended global political relationships as well as financial markets and economies. bloomberg's's guy johnson has more on how the conflict has changed the world. >> war in ukraine has arguably provoked some the most profound change in the world order since world war ii. one in which vladimir putin has found himself in clear -- increasingly isolated. >> am taking robust action to make

investors are digesting that harder than expected ppi report, and hawkish commentary from fed president mester the dow industrials down 0.7% and nasdaq comp off 0.5% cheeldz are shooting higher with ten-year back above 3.8% we are getting news out of the new york fed let's get over to steve liesman. >> the new york fed in fourth quarter household debt reported debt surged by $394 billion in the fourth quarter prp that's the largest increase in two decades. breaking it down, mortgages up a strong $254 billion. credit cards up $61 billion, the largest quarterly increase in the history of the survey going back to 1999 auto loans up and student loans as well. as far as delinquency, they did tick up for credit cards, auto loans and mortgages. but the rate or the level remains at or below the pre-pandemic level the trouble is the transition into them. there have been some worrying increases into the transition of delinquency rate. a blog says credit card borrowers are missing their payments and transitioning to 90-plus day delinquency or higher certainly there is increasing reliance by households on

person or appears to be another person out there other than the two of whom we know, bullard and mester, who wanted to go 50. they wanted to go 50 because they wanted to bring the federal reserve closer more quickly to the target where they were trying to get to several saw risk to the outlook as becoming more balanced. participants supported maintaining a restrictive policy stance until enflation was clearly on a path toward their 2% target. inflation was seen as unacceptably high. substantially more evidence was needed for confidence the inflation was on a downward path it was important for financial conditions to reflect policy restraint from the fed they did see more financial conditions tightening in 20 than they hadn't seen in 2022 upside risk was seen to inflation but a few saw the risk as more balanced economic risks, however, were to the down side and gdp was expected to slow further in 2023 worth mentioning at this point a little asterisk all of this came before the be big jobs report and the retail sales report and the stickier inflation numbers he we had p. this is before th

explicó que no es la primera vez que ramírez la acusa de una relación íntima, la primera vez fue al mester estando con él le cayó un texto mío, uno decía nada malo, venía acusarme que tenía algo con él, además de la paternidad debe de el documento demás ramírez testifica violencia y últimas y múltiples acusaciones como evidencia. >>> dios santo, está pasado número querella falta de respeto a ella ni un texto ni nada, puedo comprobarlo porque tengo mi celular donde terciada y lo que le decía. >>> era sospechosa ramírez podría enfrentar hasta 14 años en prisión por el secuestro del bebé, jessica espera que estar documento y acusación de ramírez no va a tener veredicto, la próxima corte estaré allí volveré a dar mi testimonio y que la fiscalía juez me escuchen para queno pueda tener condena y libertad condicional, nosotros tenemos miedo de que salga y que quiera tener una represalia contra nuestro bebé, libertad pedraza noticiero telemundo con 28. >>> esta historia hemos dado seguimiento del momento en que sucedió el incidente para ver la cronología puede visitar nuestra página telemundo.com.

and as james bullard and hover relate a the mester said yesterday, they've -- loretta mester said yesterdayat's a repeat of the '70s where inflation urges again. and the big problem here is, and they said this, they're going to have to cause some pain to do that. the only way you get inflation down is to cause a recession, unfortunately. charles: let's say we get that recession, it's this year. how much, i should say or ask, does that increase the chances of rate cuts this year? >> well, look, we're not going to get a rate cut until there's actually a recession that starts to cause deflation. so, look, we have to define something really quick. there's disinflation which is a slower pace of inflation, then there's deflation which is declining inflation. the fed's not going to start cutting rates until you get a deflationary environment because that's a problem they can't fix. it's a psychological problem with consumers not willing to buy anything at that point. so no rate cuts until they get, to that problem. and that's not going to be this year, likely, that's going to probably be early 202

50 basis points, apparently going through these fomc minutes, seems like a couple we heard from, mesteress what are the chances jay powell himself says this is the right thing, pull out the mallet and go 50 again? i think we've lost phil for right now. so, danielle, could you answer that because we hear from, go ahead. >> charles, i think, i think the minutes today swatted away the non-voters if you will because it said most of the people on the committee were in favor of the 25 basis points. remember in 2008 janet yellen suggested that the minutes be added to the fed's tool box, massaged as a factor of time. this is very much reflective of today. so i think the minutes, as opposed to three weeks ago when the meeting took place. charles: right. >> i think today's minutes say you can disregard these out in public saying they would favor 50 basis points. the vast majority on the committee were in favor of 25 basis points that will include powell. you have powell's fingerprints all over these minutes. that is why there is a sigh of relief at least in the bond market right now. charles: phi

it is loretta mester, it is james bullard, who by the way don't vote this year although mester will votef austan goolsbee -- charles: what about the notion bullard is a mouthpiece for jay powell. >> i much don't buy into that. i think bullard speaks for himself. but i think he is well-respected in the fed and powell certainly listens to him. charles: you still sticking with six though? >> i'm still sticking with six. charles: we'll leave it there. >> fair enough. charles: oh, boy, tell you what, it is a tough go of it all. thanks a lot, chris. labor shortages one of the topics we'll discuss future of work, town hall special march 9th, 2:00 p.m. eastern. get your ticket. come in the studio. hang out with me. by the way this is how you do it. go to eventbrite.com, search charles paper for those tickets. >>> coming up here big tech and supreme court now, this is a major showdown that has been brewing for a decade. what it means for social media companies and then niles has been the hottest guy on the street last couple years. he actually owns one of these names at 2:30. biden delivering spe

that that that means that mester and bullard didn't find many friends among the fomc council pushing for a 50 basis point. they also didn't mention a pause. and as you mentioned, ms.. the minutes didn't even mention the word disinflation. there was more of an emphasis on maintaining the restrictive stance for longer. and then lastly, they really focus on the upside risk to inflation. remember, going into this meeting, we had gotten a few soft prints and there was no mention of what happens if there is a downside risk to inflation going forward. they instead focus squarely on the upside, risk to inflation. remember, in between now and these fed minutes, we have gotten a hot cpi print. so these two taken together do suggest that there is room for those dots to shift higher at the march meeting. well, that could certainly be something that re reinvigorates the upper the upper end on those yields. now, the vice chair, lael brainard, departs the fed this week. so who might replace her dove hawk? do we know there was a note out from the wall street journal that floated two names, two econo

let's start with president mester, he says inflation still to the upside and she did the last meetingor pretty wide to 50 basis point hikes. >> at this juncture the incoming data has not change my view that we will need to bring the fed funds rate above 5%, and hold it there for some time. setting aside what financial market precipitants expected us to our saw a propelling economic casework 50 basis point increase that would have brought the top of the target range to 5%. >> that was florida mester -- lorretta mr.. he joined her in the push for 50 basis point hikes at the last meeting. he wants to get the key rate up to 5.735. he would not rule out supporting a 50 basis point rate hike at the coming meeting in march. there you have it, two fed officials, in the hawkish camp, you will see if they can convince the doves, keeping at 25, maybe move higher if you need to. maybe it is because they spoke to some to hot inflation reports. this is piling on, making the fed, at least two people that we should not have downshifted to 25 we have to go back up to 50. >> another grilling and austra

we had more hawkish fed speak this week whether it was loretta mester, jim bullard, susan coleman. the pce numbers, the dollar surging to the highest in a year or so. all of this reflected across markets. oil prices now, a little gain in the asian session. it has been muted training for oil as well. range bound around $10 the entire year coming at a time when the rebound in demand coming from china has not really lived up to expectations. haidi: yeah, well, shery we continue to follow geopolitical headlines. top finance chiefs failed to agree to a consensus statement at the g20 meeting with russia and china disagreeing over language used in russia's were in ukraine. let's bring in tony czuczka and our china editor john liu. it seems like there is an impossibility to find a consensus at these gatherings. at the un security council they cannot even agree to a moment of silence. it is perhaps not surprising they cannot make headway on the drafting of this communique. tony: no. it is what you would expect at this point. it was actually russia and china which turned away from language t

loretta mester is appearing at 1:45. later in the day, james bullard will be talking in tennessee. coming up, american consumers, retail sales jumped 3% in january, the most in almost two years. recent arguments from fed officials that rates may have to go higher for longer. how will we position for that? on bloomberg. ♪ introducing the new sleep number climate360 smart bed. only smart bed in the world that actively cools, warms, and effortlessly responds to both of you. our smart sleepers get 28 minutes more restful sleep per night. proven quality sleep. only from sleep number. manus:manus: what's the swirling around jp morgan, saying explosive rise in short dated option is creating risk on a scale that the markets have not seen since 2018. the senior portfolio manager, issue word about that fact? good morning, good to see you, stephanie mark -- the equity market is like this, it's refusing to listen to the bond market. do you think there is an awkward moment between the bond market and the equity market? good morning. >> good morning. i think the equity market is exhausted and is

paramount and shake shack and more a fresh batch of fed speak on tap from cleveland fed president loretta mesterames bullard and lisa cook. >>> europe's out performance is showing no signs of slowing down following the ftse 100 lead a few days ago the cac 40 in france hit an all-time high. 11%. let's talk about this with kari firestone. kari, a lot of people look at this and say europe is the worst performing economy as a whole in western world and the stocks are outperforming ours what is behind it? >> think about what is going on with europe in the background with ten years of under underpe underperformance as a whole, the european economy underperformed and it has been abysmal to the u.s. market it got to the point were they were oversold. think about this year. everyone predicted europe would be in recession because they would have no energy to run the economy because of the russian oil imports. in fact, this is a mild summer -- sorry, mild winter you didn't have any problem with energy supplies to the continent. also, you had a very oversold condition with price to earnings multiples in the

louis, esther george of kansas city, loretta mester of cleveland and boston's susan collins.collins are considered hawkish. coming in, the new president of the chicago fed, austin goolsb y, patrick harker, minneapolis president and all are considered dovish or somewhat centrist. there is little difference between the views. 17 of the 19 members saw the fed's target rate reaching over 5% by the end of this year. and nine c rate cuts in 2023. the voters change, but the policy remains the same. francine: that was michael mckee on who's in and he was out of the fomc. we have a great decision day guide on our website. we will push that out on our social media channels. the federal reserve likely pushing back against any suggestion it will halt interest rate increases. that is the view of jeffrey gundlach. we had a lot of time with him yesterday, interesting to see how he sees traders positioning in terms of dollar until the end of the year. the other big story is the budget in india. prime minister narendra modi has been commenting on the full year 2024 budget. this is what stocks

we heard from mester and bullard last week that they supported it. turns out they did not have a lot of friends in the fomc about that. there was not even a mention of the word of disinflation, which powell used ad nausea him in that q&a. the emphasis instead was on maintaining this restrictive policy stands for longer. they also discuss the upside risk to the inflation outlook remaining key to policy. there was no discussion about the downside risk to the inflation outlook. going into these minutes, we had a string of soft cpi print but they are still focusing on the upside risk. these two taken together might suggest there is room for those dots to shift higher. there rate forecast. but i want to show in the next chart what we have priced in february. this month alone has seen a 50 basis point rise in the fed terminal rate. this is pricing for fed funds futures, shifted 50 basis points higher in february to nearly 5.4 percent. one could assume the market is already pricing a shift higher in the dots we get on march 22. tom: valerie tytel breaking d

real gdp to round out the week with personal income and home sales and then fed speak from loretta mesterchase says investors may set up for disappointment the bank says stocks don't bottom before the fed hikes rates and it is too early to say if recession is off the table. jpmorgan chase says the first quarter will mark the high point for the year pointing to warning signs from the inverted yield curve. let's talk more about this now with sylvia jablonski and greg branch sylvia and greg, great to have you here >> good morning. thank you. >> what do you see in the market, sylvia the dow and s&p off a two and three-week slide and now futures in the red >> we started the year strong. january was a great month for markets. part of that is the investors had a bit of appetite to come back into the market to take on risk and started thinking the fed may be closer to being finished than starting to look through and see how it holds up. earnings are okay. they are stable. some inflation reads are coming in hot you had cpi and ppi hotter i think that now brings us back to reality that the fed may

to him before the show tonight thank you all for coming >>> don't miss the interview with loretta mesterorrow on "squawk box" tomorrow. >>> coming up, natural gas prices have plunged since september. what's driving the decline and will relief show up in heating bills? >>> plus, whether you're buying a car online, watching your favorite show, making a payment, we have you covered. >>> here is a look at markets heading towards session lows the dow is down almost 200 points points back in a moment lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund t

of soft data, so the bulk of the minutes will reflect the dovish message, but what we heard from mester and bullard yesterday was that they were advocating for 50 even with soft data going into the january print, so you have to take that forward and think with the strong pmi's, the strong payroll print, that they will be advocating even more in the march meeting for re-acceleration. anna: others say they are not voters so they do not have impact, but they are not here. thank you. kristine aquino and valerie tytel ringing us up-to-date. coming up, it has been almost one year of work in ukraine and the conflict is still far from resolution. biden doubles down on his support for kyiv. we will have the latest next. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> one year later, kyiv stands and ukraine stands. democracy stands. and america's standing with you and the world stands with you. >> the worst is not going to -- the west is not going to win over us. >> you and all ukrainians, mr. president, remind the world every single day what the meaning of the word courage is. >> i repeat, they are to blame for unleash

the mester comments, cleveland fed president, saying that she preferred a good case for a 50-basis-pointike last meeting as opposed to 25 that really got the futures' attention because i think this measured, quarter point per meeting pace where we're going to kind of navigate gradually toward the terminal rate was pretty acceptable, i think, to the stock market but here we have a market that is up 8% year to date, started to get overexcite. there's a bit of a beta chase, a bit of a grab for risk we've been talking about the, you know, the bear hunt that was on yesterday and the day before where a lot of heavily shorted stocks were running as well as that former boom/bust. >> the goldman most shorted stocks were up 4.5% yesterday. you've got a lot of hedge funds that run what we call tight nets they have a lot of hedge, meaning, they're shorting a lot of stuff, and man, they sent some of those names up sharply yesterday. not sure what that's a sign of, if anything. >> it's really a sign of essentially the market outperforming the way people were positioned, and i do think you have, again,

neil: we're learning more about cleveland fed president loretta mester certainly sounded more hawkisher the wholesale inflation report came out. she would have preferred the fed to be more aggressive a couple weeks ago where they raised rates a quarter point. she would have preferred a half point. we have to be very vigilant about this, paraphrasing here. that is a voting member, more or less saying don't expect me to soften on this inflation fight. what did you think. >> a lot of jawboning out there from the fed governors. you mentioned she is a voting member, ha is important. gosh, neil, market knows fed ask on its path. knows what the fed wants to do. a lot of folks federal reserve besides jay powell should keep their mouths shut. there is no need to come out on a day like today we had hotter than expected ppi, jam the markets with talk of another 50 basis point rate hike. for me i think they can get the job done with a little list talk and little less action tan the market wants them to have. neil: we still have a 10-year note teasing 3.9% earlier this morning, now into the low 3.

the beginning of the year and what we saw today it really tags into even from the commentary from mester earlier today they will continue -- the fed will be data dependent and tactical going forward. the terminal rate will likely go above 5 and higher for longer narrative is very much in place. what brenda said, truth to resiliency and the consumer is strong and they've shown some strength through the last couple quarters and all that we've seen with the fed policy. i think the other point is what is this impact that it's having, two-year, 4.8, a ten-year close to 4%. what is the material impact and maybe it's not as blunt as we've seen yes, earnings have come down, guidance hasn't been as strong, but i still think there are pockets of strength. we say palo alto, nvidia numbers, some other companies that have beaten and raised, so there are opportunities you just have to look harder than we have the last year or so. just have to be mindful all across the board >> which is why, weiss, it's not like jim lebenthal is the only person who sees where we are relative to where we've been >> i'm

person or appears to be another person out there other than the two of whom we know, bullard and mesternted to go 50. they wanted to go 50 because th

what will happen is bullard or mester going to get on the air, do a speech, oh, let's raise rates to 7%? probably we're in the rosanna rosanna -- >> if you mention it one more time you might be in the park. >> rents are really an important component and the fed said it's looking at one of the things the fed is looking at. apartment rent down, august through january. one of the difficulties we face is the congratulations pace at which things like, for example, apartment rentals. you have two components, existing leases re-signed and they're not the same thing >> 52 people that number can drop pretty fast >> you're right. >> i think you make a good point about rents but the fed focuses on services. >> which is a problem. >> and that's a very big problem. the services economy is really strong >> what enables you to be as positive in terms of the market? you always make the point that the fed is going to be engaged, that the services economy is super strong, but then you pivot into how somehow you are more positive on the market how can you be both? >> no, no. i'm more positive on the ec

bullard and mester were pushing for a more aggressive posture.members we have your guests with us this morning. joe, help me >> it's eaophean >> they put it phonetically. it is complicated. let's talk about the fed and what it is doing let's talk about the idea that there are folks on the board who can't vote and have a different view and what the market is taking from them and the comments that jim made on our show and the reality of what is going on in the room kevin. >> andrew, the first thing you have to think about is the two individuals that spoke are very popular. they carry a lot of weight inside the fed you see them on the air quite a bit and they are outspoken i do think they will be able to pur persuade the voting members to be hawkish you have lael brainard who just left the fed she was an influential dove. you will see the fed actually lean more hawkish going forward as we expect to continue and raise rates as we have the strong labor market out here >> what with is your sense of what is going to happen as the year progresses? i don'

now we're down 200, and then mester saying she was in the 50 -- is it back on the table?now. for may, you have only -- for march, a 7% probability of a 50, and yeah, not much right now, just 7%. it's kind of off the table, but i wouldn't rule it out if things start to go north when it comes to inflation and, i guess, the economy. i think the fed really wants to do 25. >> when is that? >> march 22nd, joe then early may, may 3rd, then june 14th. so three meetings coming up before we take a summer break here i think the fed wants to do 25 they prefer that to feel their way, but they will do 50 i think what's happened is an understanding by the market that the fed is serious, and singular and monolithic about it. >> we'll have february inflation numbers by then, i guess >> yeah. >>> yeah yikes. the treasury will exhaust emergency measures to present a debt default as early as july, unless congress raises the debt limit. that's the new word from the nonpartisan cbo. they'll know more in april in addition, the cbo raises projection for the annual federal budget deficit over the

. >> i guess there's also the wild card of 50 basis point hike the next meeting we know that mester andere in favor of that at the last meeting we don't know who else might have been also, because the language in the minutes seemed to imply that there could have been another person who was in this same camp but i'm wondering, jim, if we're just, you know, we're not looking at the big picture here, whether there's 50 now or an additional 25, the end point is higher, but how long do you think we will be at that end point? >> no, you're right. i think that whether we do 50 or 25 at the next meeting is really a function of the stock market if we're 42 or 4,300, i think witwe do 50. if we're at 4,000 or lower, i think we do 25 but really, what's important is, where are the fed ultimately going? are they going to 5.50 and stop there? that's really no different than 5.25 but the market is starting to bet on they might go to 6% by the fall, so for secured overnight financing options, which are going to place libor, are seeing a gigantic rise in open interest in 6%, the best options bet's that t

loretta mester says she saw a case for a 50 basis point hike at the most recent meeting. that view was echoed by james bullard. president biden expects to speak to china's xi jinping soon about that balloon. the president says he hopes to get to the bottom of this. at the same time he said he makes no apologies for taking down the balloon. the dispute has highlighted how fragile relations are between the u.s. and china. ukraine's ammunition and weapons gap will dominate the munich security conference which began today. nato officials have called for an increase in arms production to address shortfalls. meanwhile the u.k. defense ministry estimates that up to 200,000 russian troops have been tilled or wounded since the start of the war almost a year ago. expectations are mounting the u.k. and eu will reach a deal on post-brexit trading arrangements in the coming days. prime minister rishi sunak traveled to belfast the top to the regions parties. u.k. and eu leaders are looking to resolve the dispute over the northern ireland protocols, the part of the brexit deal which set

the federal reserve's loretta mester and james bullard have signaled after producer prices reboundedmost since june. a georgia state jury investigating election interference by former u.s. president trump and his allies said it believes perjury was committed by one or more witnesses. in the final report jurors concluded there was no widespread fraud that would have led to overturning bidens win but a judge has said details about who the grand jury said should be charged will remain sealed for now. that is the first word news. yvonne: we are seeing some downside when it comes to bitcoin. it certainly has been a bumper week when it comes to cryptocurrencies. we are low by 3%. we reach around august highs just yesterday. once again still a lot of questions about the regulatory side of things. the latest is the sec suing the company behind tara usd. walk us through the case itself and what are the implications of the lawsuit? >> this is not terribly surprising. this was a meltdown that took down tens of billions of dollars the crypto ecosystem. the sec has been doing enforcement action a

whatever we get out of these sessions, we will be focused on that, those to mester drivers for growthssible to gauge what they could be and how you invest along those lines? obviously, you want to be on the right side of policy when it comes to investing in china. joyce: i still think there will be a recovery in travel and tourism. there is still a lot of pent-up demand. it is something where, that is 250 basis points. there is still momentum here to go. some of the focus that has been on the property sector, there be more measures that are forthcoming or on household income? that is where i think you could see some disappointment. still the more domestic sectors that will benefit here. i think that some of the exuberance on the commodity side, that is where i think you have seen some disappointment that everybody has look at the past cycles, the past memories of how these recoveries have they doubt. this is different, because it is much more on services and the domestic consumption. haidi: i was to the inflationary picture, are you a buyer into the idea that we are going to see a ano

neal cash carry said he supports 5.40 for the year-end rate the comments of mester and bullard said thee to respond to economic data through more modest quarter point hikes. they want to do this thing they called front-ended loading rate hikes to get ahead of inflation. the market continues to price in a quarter for margin i think for now that's the most likely bet, but i say for now because minutes next week of the meeting will show how much support there is for a 50 basis points hike and you have jobs and inflation data that's ultimately going to be what the decider is, guys >> yeah. speaking of the decider, powell is the decider but how much does growing division matter on the fed? >> well, right now, not so much i think, david first of all i think rates are going up that's the first thing a question of 25 or 50, i think powell is more inclined towards a 25, but he could be convinced for a 50 powell is going to work to get consensus and we have to listen to more fed speak over the next couple weeks, read the minutes and how much support there is. when i look at the fed presidents i d

. >> february is a short month >> it is loretta mester >> she was on.now she says 25 it's hard to go back to 50 after 25 you freak everybody out. >> hard to go back to the farm >>> when we come back, a big pay day for blackstone's steve schwartzman. he brought in more than $1 billion last year. >>> and we will have peter kraus on why he doesn't see the economy heading for a soft landing. >>> a reminder, you can watch us any time on the cnbc app when you choos ast business internet, you choose the largest, fastest reliable network. you choose advanced security for total peace of mind. and you choose a next generation 10g network that's always improving, getting faster; more reliable; and more intelligent to keep you ready for today and tomorrow. the choice is clear: make your business future ready with the network from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. >>> blackstone's ceo steve schwartzman took home 1 p$1.27 billion last year. the 2022 haul topped the prior year earnings of $1.1 billion. >> extraordinary >> he's not