a clear impact on the mexican peso. tom: i would emphasize for the global audience, what we are doing in the u.s. is aggregating the polls. we really will not see that for a day or two. kevin cirilli does not need a cold --to know what need a poll to know what happened. he is torn has from st. louis. the end of the debate, they did not shake hands. but the body language on that debate, the end of the with the microphones off, is totally different than the first debate. how uncomfortable was it? kevin: this is one of the nastiest debate in american history. we will be talking about this for decades to come. i put this question to top aides in trump's political orbit. the word they used to describe the clinton campaign was "rattled." when i put this to the clinton surrogates in the spin room, they reiterated clinton's claims they feel donald trump is unfit to be president and his performance in st. louis was an illustration of that. tom: kevin, over the weekend, we saw a republican party shaken to its foundations. i put o

there is the dollar/mexican peso. one thing strikes me. the peso rallied as much as 2%. that is when the debate ticked off. we gave back some of those. the best-performing currency since the first debate three weeks ago, the dollar/mexican peso. on friday, it lost as much as 6% before it bounced back, regaining most of that lost ground, but now down one quarter of 1%. the way to, on denmark and the netherlands to try to build understanding with leaders around what she is trying to do with breaks it. -- with brexit. and now, we will get it right. this is the yuan. reopened after the golden week, but this decline in fx reserves, that is the lowest since 2011, so anybody who thinks that the chinese are not in their barrier of 6.7 are, indeed, misguided. oil is down. will it give above -- get above $50? any deal around opec freezing production great let's look at what is going on with the euro group. greece returns to the limelight as leaders meet in luxembourg. he criticized the position of his german counterpart on the issue of debt relief.

.: mexican peso moving the number two currency forecaster, the u.s. dollar is not buying whatever the outcome of the presidential election. he will get his outlook this hour. talks at theo energy congress in istanbul -- the energy conference in istanbul. about 30 minutes into the trading day in the u.s. let's head to the market desk for julie hyman has the latest. : we got energy stocks is the best performers in the s&p 500 today. that itself. higher -- that is helping to push stocks higher. the mexican peso rallying. seems as though the outcome already being pricing to the u.s. equity market is a victory for hillary clinton. when we saw the last debate occur and see what perceived as winning, without the peso rally in stocks rallied to some extent. oil is a big part of the story also. brent crude is hitting a one-year high. you have nymex crude hitting not necessarily a high on a historical basis, but hit a high last week and now above 5120 -- above $51 a barrel as we got comments from vladimir putin at a meeting of opec officials in istanbul saying

meanwhile the mexican peso has risen. nt struggle to be a boon for peso bulls, the currency is up more than 7%. the biggest gain among its major peers, first line is the first debate. what a wonderful chart that is. euro positioning by leveraged funds and assets managers. leveraged shorts by leverage funds and asset management is the top line. we have got the blue sideline the euro. we have the white line is the institutional and leveraged of course have gone short. the euro is the blue line as well. the divergeance is the most in a decade reflecting a lack of consensus on the outlook. this is a function which shows essentially the biggest companies on the stoxx 600 by market capitalization. this is the market capitalization of all of these companies by weighting nestle is the biggest company. nine month revenue rose at the eakest pace. lufthansa raised its care yore forecast, the three-month prediction of an earlier decline. bookings beat expectation and a drop in fuel costs. francine: the e.c.b., the consensus is that th

the mexican peso will fluctuate during the debate. he said that he did not expect to sign a deal with the cartel this week. they will try to hammer out the details before next month. has halted production, after leading exchanges of the device. recall happened over the overheating. there are new safety concerns. it is 12:30. >> it is 7:30. it is good to see you here thewe are focusing in on and the timing of the targets. we will continue to talk about brexit. there was further weakness today and we will put this to theresa may, who has had a charm offensive around europe and is trying to build on the standing if they minister and theprepared to sacrifice to individual markets. that therer said were talks and they are trying alliances on the said that thed european commission vice president in washington will be able to read the smoke signals and we know that will come from some time. deutsche inc. story. do we know anything new? >> there was a story about the the departmentnd of justice understands the negotiations and they are still

tom: i note mexican peso this morning over the weekend -- not just the debate, but the news flow and over the weekend -- clearly, a stronger peso signals a better monday for secretary clinton than mr. trump. with that said, we will see how the poll's out in a second debate. we go to a third debate october 19, i believe. on deutsche bank, a pullback well within the range this morning. on "surveillance" on morning the news flow out of deutsche bank. it is up in the air. francine: and certainly the stock is not liking it at all. we had a conversation on saturday afternoon with the president of the swiss national bank, mr. thomas jordan. we talked about the trouble in the world, and i asked whether he could go further into negative territory. mr. jordan: it makes sense for switzerland. you have to distinct between exchange rate channels for negative rates and the credit channel. there is evidence the credit channel is working. francine: would you be comfortable going further into negative territory? after johnson, we have room to go further if necessary. it seems again, central bankers ke

i do want to check quickly on the dollar versus the mexican peso.hat's been the barometer tracking the trump factor and the impact. the peso has been strong. >> we had a bit upstairs. of course, this is the first thing you look at after the third and final presidential debate. you can see the dollar is a bit stronger versus the peso, but it's holding some gains, near a six-week high. it pretty much fluctuated around the debate time but stayed near the higher level as the trump odds have receded. >> the peso made a good bounce back in the last ten days or so clearly a lot of focus on it, fallout from that last night, it's on the front page of all the papers. yes, ivanka trim and mike pence said they will stand by the result, but trump is not one to just stand by, maybe she have done, but i'm not surprised he didn't. i'm surprised at the level of interest and fallout. >> i think on such a major stage, in front of millions of americans, he will not accept the vote, our democratic process which makes us the envy of the entire world is something to pause

that being the case, every time he rises in the polls, the mexican peso falls.he stumbles in the polls, the mexican peso gains a little. 19 and 33 today so beloved of strengthening for the peso but it almost reached 20 and it has not been below 19 much in the last couple of months. postelection? matt: if you go on back to 1939 which is probably when our data was just beginning to be whenled, it shows that republicans win, there is an immediate gain in the market. when democrats win, it takes a little bit longer, and it is a little bit longer-lasting. the reality is in election years , regardless of who is running, regardless of which party, democrat or republican, election years are generally good for the stock market. vonnie: always cheering for good news. is the bloomberg editor in chief , and you would not know it by looking at the stock market today but the dow is down by a quarter of a percent and the s&p is down as well. nejra: let's take a look at the european markets just before the close half an hour away. this is bloomberg. ♪ a 11 :00 in new york, floo

the currency pair is nicely encapsulating this, the dollar mexican peso. e dollar surging because as donald trump sods of , theng perhaps increased peso genuinely tends to weaken. matt: gdp grew 2.9%. you may have forgotten this. this could potentially bolster rates rightraise after the election. those of the three charts you have to see about this. it seems like great news. 2.9%. it is like cause to celebrate. the economy is bouncing back. oliver: there are always caveats. it was all from the volatile inventory component. the consumer aspect softened a little bit. that is what people are honing in on. the first one is not from the gdp report. it is from the consumer survey on inflation expectations. >> it is number 4628. it is really not good from the consumer perspective. . oliver: in terms of that policy, if you look at this chart that has had a record low. at the table at the fed would be very different. you would have a lot more willingness to raise interest rates. matt: the white line is survey participants expect. oliver: the blue line is the immedia

strength in the canadian dollar and mexican peso versus u.s. dollar. cheryl: taking a look at it, slightly lower. 1.85%. latest read on the yield. lauren: elon musk has a new vision for harnessing the sun to power your home. his companies tesla and solar city have developed glass tiles that look like roof shingles to preplace conventional solar panels. the goal is to make the solar roofs more attractive and also last longer, it's part of plan to merge solar city with company tesla, the proposal worth $2.5 billion, shareholders are expected to vote on the deal november 17th. cheryl: con troughers vi you the deal to. health care one of the stocks to watch this morning. drug-maker to pose lower renew. the stock has had a rough year as you can see on the screen there. we are also going to hear from lowe's and lumber liquidators expected a narrow loss. you can see a volatile year for lumber liquidators, they are just now recovering from that scandal. lauren: take a look at the headlines in today's edition of wall street journal. sources say the new entity w

i want to look now at the mexican peso.have the vix, the studies predict a decline in the peso, and i think that's pretty much what you got and i'm most interested in the vix because i think one -- there is the peso right there declining in value against the dollar in a sharp way. if you have the vix, how good are they in the back there? you can see the volatility goes up. but that tells you -- what that tells you guys is all of a sudden, the cost of hedging a trump victory has just gotten more expensive, the time to do this was two nights ago at the dinner a was at when again all of the polls were pointing toward the clinton victory. what i want to tell you is the study i've been talking about, it is an event study that looks at how the markets reacted to the perceived victory by hillary clinton in the first debate and then how the markets reacted to the release of the tape on october 5th. there is that chart there. you can see the chance of a clinton victory tracking the rise in the s&p that very evening. in a minute by m

and's looking at treasuries the mexican peso. let's look at the asian markets.etite here today heading leadingenergy stocks the gains of 1.5%. this is because wti is still trading above $51 a barrel. crude is weaker today but there was a surge yesterday. and of the groups gaining the msci asia-pacific index has hit its high for the month today. not expecting a change to policy today. the euro rematch unchanged but holding near its weakest level since july. anna: the ecb decision around all things stimulus for the european economy, economists mario draghi announcing new measures. could there be more ironworks at the press conference later? caroline joins us. knows -- there will be more stimulus, just not yet. >> precisely. economists thinks today is the day. 19% feel there will be more .timulus about three quarters of the economists we have spoken to feel the quantitative easing process will be between so maybe they can low -- they can buy below the deposit rate. about 40% of german debt is not eligible to be bought by the ecb. banks are having the idea quantitat

toie: i wanted to come back not just stocks but other assets, particularly the mexican peso. ave seen that act as the most proxy for developments in the election. we are seeing the dollar spike versus the peso. two thirds of 1%. look at the s&p or the dow or nasdaq, all three major averages have turned negative on the headlines, but we are not seeing that much of the drop. take a look at the major averages. we can also look at the imap groups on the move. to .5%.off health care is lower. financials are now lower as well. those groups had all been in the green until just moments ago when we began to get these headlines. industrials and consumer staples are still keeping the market afloat but have paired their gains. developments in not just the presidential race, but when it comes to markets as well, which have been broadly pricing in the likelihood of a hillary clinton victory. as peter was saying, a donald trump victory would be more of an unknown when it comes to the financial markets. matt: the vix spiking up as well. a measure of increased volatility, and of course, the s&

connections between what the stock market was doing, within seconds of hearing this, and then what the mexican peso doing. within seconds of hearing this. suddenly a trump campaign that seemed silly and going nowhere, turned quickly. the pet sew, tanking. -- this peso tanking, the dollar soaring on the prospect suspect that trump presidency, suddenly no one was laughing. more after this. terrible at golf for as long as i can. new patented ensure enlive has hmb plus 20 grams of protein to help rebuild muscle. for the strength and energy to do what you love. new ensure enlive. always be you. >>> see that plane engulfed in smoke it in was very close to taking off with a fire onboard. a tire blew off, hit the engine, the whole thing it nighted. everyone is safe. now they're trying to find out why. ...as a combination of products and customers. every on-time arrival is backed by thousands of od employees, ...who make sure the millions of products we ship arrive without damages. because od employees treat customer service... ...like our most important delivery. od. helping the world keep promises. >>> wa

the mexican peso strong at the one-month high after all the weekend news flow. we'll talk a lot more about the highlights from last night's debate in a moment and some of the biggest takeaways, including some talk on the economy. very little. >> a little bit of policy in there. but it was acrimonious. >>> first, a quick market round-up of what is going on around the world in terms of trade. futures at this hour are called higher by about 54 points for the dow. the s&p by 6 or 7. the nasdaq by 14 points. it was the first negative week in four last week for the markets. we are around half a percent depending on the numbers you're looking at. the worst performer down 5%. banks, the only positive performer. in fact, doing surprisingly well. goldman sachs was up 5% last week responding well to the ticker in yields. let's look at the yields. because a clear move. we were 1.5% on the ten-year note, about ten days ago to two weeks ago. we were above 1.723. the banks really getting a good performance last week based out of the earnings out of this week. >>> caution trade

not just with the mexican peso but also the canadian dollar is gapping a bit stronger. it is too early to draw conclusions about the campaign. if we take this as a brexit it turned out to be a leave. i think there is a similar risk. and the outcome is closer than the polls and the press are making it out to be. sense on give us a whether we should be seeing such a correlation between the mexican peso and donald trump's rises and falls. we have a great chart showing how they are in lockstep. is this the right sort of function we should be seeing? john: in broadbrush terms, yes. the market has seized upon this in a boring market. what the actual we are a lady on the ground will become a postelection if there is a donald trump presidency could be at odds with how the market is trading now. i think it is just the market seizing on a theme. seenas you say, we have the moves in the peso and the canadian dollar, if you look at dollar volatility, we are not seeing much priced in yet. backve a chart that goes to the 1970's. the yellow line is the average one-month all attila the

we'll look at the mexican peso that made strong gains against the u.s. dollar reaching a one-month high signaling markets are lessening the odds of a donald trump victory. meantime, u.s. futures were pretty much unchanged. that doesn't tell you a lot because last time clinton was seen winning the first debate, the u.s. features or futures saw a big rally. didn't happen this time around. >> what do you guys think? we would love to hear from you. neutrally, i generally don't care who wins on either side. i think there's a case to be said for, you shouldn't maybe be too far right or too far left. but if everybody can be in the middle and it works out for the greater good of everyone out there, maybe you disagree. e-mail the show, you can find us on twitter @streetsigns. >> keep the tweets coming. @carolineroth. >> or @louisabojesen. we're talking within a 1% difrence in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50% on most current national carrier rates. save money on your phone bill, invest it in your small business. wouldn't you lov more customers?

the mexican peso is another one we are keeping an ion today.s less and less likely that donald trump will reach victory. the odds of a hillary clinton at 80% now. the mexican peso feeling more positive. one of the major stories today, russia joining the party. branch is above $53 a barrel. they friday jobs report not hurting. the nasdaq up .8%. let's take a look at the nasdaq in more detail. abigail doolittle is in manhattan. >> we are looking at a nice rally for the nasdaq. trading at an all-time intraday high. nasdaq is close to its record high. nice turnaround here. as for what is boosting the -- petere most today stabler at wells fargo is saying both of these internet giants are on pace to beat or made estimates for the third quarter. he believed they are going to continue to gain share from non-tv media. we have facebook up 24%. all year this has been the top gainer. we have amazon climbing ahead of facebook. it will be interesting to see whether that dynamic holds once this company reports their quarters. been a littlehas bit more choppy.

we have reported on the so-called impact of the trump campaigns trail rhetoric on the mexican peso. in popularity, the peso weakens. .ou can see this in the chart when he took a commanding lead in a commanding lead in the primary race, the peso surged against the dollar. recently, when polls showed he was gaining in several key states, you saw the surge again. after the first debate, where ,linton seem to take the win and trump stumbled on policy details, the valley of the peso against the dollar fell. all of this volatility is affecting immigrants. for details, let's bring in isabella cota. great story that euro here. let me ask, when you talk to people in the markets, do they believe this relationship between trump and the peso, is it a theory that people are buying into? that is a very good question. the reality is up until early september people were still skeptical that this was an actual correlation. there are a lot of factors that have been hitting the mexican peso but as of september it's been clear, it is trump driving the day so the most. in your story, you talk to an immig

lira,: and the turkish the mexican peso? johanna: we started off and moved into things like russian liraruble which sometimes feels volatile but has been delivering a very attractive kerry. we are rotating through a whole range. we are currently avoiding the mexican peso a generally we like emerging markets across the board. mark: your positive commodities, what is the take on oil? are we close to this deal with and opec and non-opec producers? oil is down for the third day, the longest losing stretch since september 1. deal onhopeful for a output between opec and other producers? johanna: we are not making any assumption about the deal, it is more over time we expect the market to move into balance. toare not opposed commodities themselves but we have energy stocks this year, it was an important valuation cushion. as long as we can achieve price stability for the oil price we reckon we can make money. mark: can we make money out of banks? this is a chart -- back to the charts, sorry -- showing the european banking industry,

the mexican peso down at the bottom, a little bit stronger. a weaker peso over the last number of days as mr. trump has gotten a little bit of altitude, eight days to the election. francine lacqua in london. diane tom keene in new york. . busy week -- i am tom keene in new york. a busy week. s,ere are still two americaa right? peter: absolutely. the manufacturing sector has become more productive, and people are losing their jobs there. so, yes, there are two views about what is going on in the economy. clear that some of these things are not just cyclical. they are not just about this particular downturn. tom: i look at the backdrop of this week, and to me it is extraordinary. the great distortion, peter hooper, is negative interest rates. bring up this chart, which we did, from marketing -- from marvin good friend. willem buiter is front and center on this. peter hooper is front and center on phil about her, steven wieting -- on willem buiter, steven wieting's boss. academics are suggesting negative rates under duress would be -3%, down in t

the euro come the yucatÁn, canadian dollar and mexican peso are stronger.lauren: would have to checkout to yield because he saw big moves yesterday now 1.77%. nicole: cpu of all red has retired at the end of the year. he will be the chairman position at the end of march and has worked to for more than 40 years. all men will be replaced by jim campbell bay, the longtime caterpillar executive. caterpillar phase in its fourth year of declining sales, longest slump in history for that company. caterpillar shares at 20% so far this year after some cost cutting and also production cut. train to macy's is opening on thanksgiving day an hour earlier this year. the department store will open at 5:00 p.m. most of the stores closing at 2:00 a.m. then reopening on black friday at 6:00 in the morning. macy's has been opening since 2013 but usually remained open throughout the night. the latest announcement shows many major retail chains will probably stick with opening up on thanksgiving as we hear many more say we are saying closes her so workers can enjoy the holiday.

very quickly, have a look at the mexican peso, we're back above 19 for obvious reasons.riday, your big jump in the dollar. it was down but not against the peso, and outsize move there. a proxy for donald trump's chances. let's head on over to commodities, oil saw a big drop of the weekend. >> we are pushing lower at the moment. that is where we are at the moment, we are closing of 48. there are some differences between opec and outside opec, it doesn't look like we are going to get in agreement anytime soon. we have the lowest level for oil since september 30. ramy: a lot on the board today. it's a big week for central banks with four of them meeting. make ae expected to policy change the markets are hoping for signals and what they might do in the final weeks of this year. kathleen, let's start with the fed. >> they have a two day meeting, starts tuesday in its wednesday, and it is set against the backdrop of the third quarter gdp figure that rose more than expected, up 2.9% from the second quarter. our intelligence he looked at it and they said, the details don't add u

i will mention the mexican peso, that jumped. more than less of a trump win. the company confirming that adjusting the production of the galaxy note 7 remember the number of devices that caught fire. and at&t and of it-mobile u.s. over the weekend saying they're going to replace faulty hand sets. that's going to put more pressure on samsung over bad recall territory. as you mentioned continued focus on the energy markets. the last weeks. gasoline prices 4 cents higher at $2.29 a gallon. exactly where they were one year ago. guys, back to you. >> cnbc's julia chatterley there in london. >>> the stamp on the second presidential debate. >> somebody is going to weigh in. john oliver always weighs in when it's a busy political weekend. we'll have that story next. you're watching "early today." wow. c'mon sport, let's take a splash. oh, no thanks. besides, i didn't bring my suit. oh, that's ok, you can borrow the spare. the spare? i don't want to put anybody out. nonsense! we lend it to everybody. some people we... ...hardly know. besides, you're family now. no, i w

when looking at some of the areas where we did see a little reaction, the mexican peso, for example,little bit immediately after the debate, having been slightly lower, sitting somewhere close to six-week highs. it's really seen this rally over the last couple weeks because the markets are pricing in a clinton win. the mexican peso would be at a disadvantage if trump wins, given some of the things he said about his position on migration and trade. not a lot of reaction seen in markets. u.s. equity markets being called a little higher once they open in a couple hours. you mentioned tesla. all of tesla vehicles, including the model 3, they're going to be having a self-driving hardware in the near future. elon musk saying they're making a big commitment to the technology. he didn't answer questions from reporters about how they're going to finance the cost of these upgrades. they expect to demonstrate a cross-country trip by the end of the year. it's coming sooner versus later. and the attorney general in california, a woman by the name of camila harris, is investigating whether or not

you have anminbi and look at the emerging market currencies and they are all down this on the mexican peso. florida.ahead in thank you. we will be live in frankfurt and a lender will repair -- prepare to announce earnings. confidencestoring and a huge success. this is bloomberg. >> welcome back. let's get you a quick check of the headlines. net profit and the first of the chinese big banks to post earnings with net income rising. the banks have increased profits since 2004, despite the rising bad loans. posted astralia bank full year of profits that eat analyst estimates and the bank held the dividends. the australian banks are facing lower interest rate margins and .ad loans >> the third-quarter profit went up and the profit for the second largest lender was about 678 million u.s. dollars. byome jumped and it climbed one third. >> let's pick up the conversation and there is a potential for further bond issuance and it is great to see and we are already talking about what is next. the potential for further issuances and how they could take shape? have a small market and i think that the au

you had the thrust, 21 on -- excuse me on the mexican pesos probably the lows you get there. through 50 here looks very interesting. eww. >> but you would rather semics. >> i think the eww is a safe way to play this. >> more "options action" friday 5:30 p.m. eastern time. still ahead, google on amazon and apple. but should the search giant bag it? >>> and facebook's new marketplace going live to a bit of a controversy, and you won't believe what is for sale. we've got the details on what could be major growing pains for the company, later this hour. [pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. ♪ ♪ take me home tonight where, in all of this, is

caroline: as a portfolio manager, we have been seeing lots of volatility in the mexican peso.ositioned just now? alberto: what we are seeing globally is increased political risk in developed markets. in countries where qe was stronger, there has been rising inequality. no one was worried about it, but this is leading to populist. that is true for the uk and the u.s.. what you want to do here is positioned short sterling in the uk, short -- the mexican peso is a hedge for trump. we eventually do not think trump would win. but eventually you want to be long areas of the world which are less exposed to geopolitics. some areas in emerging markets are benefiting a lot by the problems we have in the eurozone , in the uk, and the u.s.. the other thing that is going on is, central bankers are finally realizing that negative interest rates and limitless qe are creating more damage than good. we are seeing a backup in yield curves. we are seeing a change in mindset from central bankers. i believe tapering has been discussed at the ecb, even though it was denied. the boj also months -- a

the mexican peso in blue, gold and white.seeing gold a little stronger, the mexican peso near a two-week low, and this is an indicator of expectations from the u.s. election, where you are seeing the concern. manus: thank you very much. the spanish bond markets are going to be in focus as mariano rajoy gains a second term as prime minister ending a 10 month political impasse. this was saturday night after socialist lawmakers abstained, let's speak to our bureau chief in the dreaded. thanks for joining us. how has he managed to pull this off? it's all about abstention and technicality, isn't it? >> well, yes. i think he pulled it off because he played a very effective waiting game. there were elections in spain, in december, which reduced the parliament. and he hung in there, watching very closely the internal divisions within his adversaries . the socialist party looks like a broken force now. they were really forced to accept an abstention to allow his government where their support may have fallen even further. it was reall

watch the mexican peso. it definitely dropped on this. the flip side is the dollar has been strengthening. we will talk to rick about that in a moment. gold moving to highs of the session although we had a lot to digest. the personal consumption figure wasn't that great. >> the market all across the board wobbled. we had oil close below $49 a barrel. all the asset markets adjusting. >> the volatility index that is about 16.25. spiked above 17. >>> we have amazon under pressure, potential partnership between general electric and baker hughes falling. >> we begin with fbi investigating newly found clinton e-mails. the wording is careful because there is a difference between reopening and investigating newly found e-mails. >> what i am told is that this investigation into hillary clinton was never administratively closed. there were technical details being worked on behind the scenes even though james comes said the investigation was completed. the letter sent to capitol hill today that stunned everybody doesn't say they are re-opening the i

lori mentioned the mexican peso. the stock market, even oil sold off when the headline came out. so every commodity in some way was affected. you know, remember that brookings institute report about what would happen if donald trump would become president almost came true but very small way. could be a lot more or a lot less than they were anticipating but definitely it had an impact. oil unlike some markets didn't bounce back, they didn't bounce back because of reports coming out opec meeting in vienna, apparently, iraq and iran are disputing how much oil opec says they are producing. they say, hey, we're producing a lot more. we want higher quota or we'll not go along with any production cuts. there is drama in vienna when it comes to this cut. tomorrow they meet with non-opec meetings that could be a big deal. we look tomorrow for oil. david: all about the united states though right now and the election. phil, thank you very much. melissa? melissa: the fib -- fbi doing unthinkable 11 days before the election. go to peter barnes with more details behind this unprecedented move.

but the dollar will probably gain against the canadian dollar, mexican peso, so i think it is very much case of up but not up against the other g3. anna: the boj do not like brexit much. jeremy: they will be watching very closely. anna: jeremy stretch stays with us. when we come back, talking about norway. the budget is due. and more on oil prices. this is bloomberg. ♪ manus: looking at a glorious shot of the imperial palace in tokyo. yen at the bottom of the screen. will it break trend again, day eight of the declining dollar yen. we turned it around. 103.53. excuse me, you have a new edition of daybreak on your bloomberg and on your terminal. let us take a look at some the stories at the top addition. anna, we have oil rough. anna: the cover story is the news that u.k. natural gas prices could rise if norwegian oil companies fail to sign a wage agreement. if the deal is not done today, a strike starting on friday could cut off about 20% of britain's supply. manus: interesting because you see the oil price just busting away at $50. we will talk about it again on the risk radar.the next

here is a strong clinton scene within the mexican peso. just assume that the mexico peso not be linked. >> it's the idea of proxy trading. all the conversation is very much focused on what happens. there's a little bit of stabilization. i get the sense that we are in -- it's veryso much a similar fashion to the eu referendum, where the market will trade political news up until the referendum, where it up until the u.s. election, shall i say, and then focus on fundamentals. guy: that's exactly what i am hearing as well. you get the election results, let's see what hillary clinton wants, then you get into a picture where they are like, ok, so let's recalibrate and think about what she would need. >> absolutely. the appointment of her treasury secretary would be very important. yellen will be important. look beyond the pricing of the risk premium. the day after the eu referendum, the u.n. chose to leave the eu. tom: we will continue. two weekends to go until the first tuesday of november. our special coverage throughout all november 7 and into

the performance of the mexican peso, that is also true.ve china very much in the mix with the yuan reference rate showing more weakness. how much does that affect your view? how much is a product of dollar strength? standing back and looking at the big picture, the yuan has depreciated 7% against its trade weighted index, so there has been a different valuation. that makes a lot of sense from a trade point of view. that is showing in the latest set of export figures, struggling to hold any growth of the moment, notwithstanding the decline in the yuan. they have been able to do that without too much pressure on capital outflows. if that remains the case, we tol see the yuan progressively devalue against the trade weighted index. in terms of how that changes things, from the perspective of ,ustralia and as an exporter that is a positive. did not say draghi very much, but the key take away that he suggested is that they would not be ending bond purchases without tapering. given that there is not much time between now, december, march for them

small business trump and mexican peso bad news for trump welcome back... donald trump walked on that welcome back... donald trump walked on that we all know you have to work together in order to get things done. but in washington, too often joe heck has been part of the problem, putting his party and special interests before nevada. i'm proud of my work with the bush and obama administrations on homeland security. and every bill i sponsored as attorney general was passed by democrats and republicans. i'm catherine cortez masto. i approve this message because i'll work with anyone to put nevada first. as a marine combat veteran, i understand the sacrifices our military makes. our benefits are earned, and we rely on them. to shut down the federal government, risking critical services for nevada veterans. and during that shutdown, heck continued cashing his congressional paycheck. his military record deserves respect. but back in dc, joe heck is putting politics before nevada. and that doesn't work for me. narrator: vote vets is responsible for the content re

i want to segue to the mexican peso. ar on a day-to-day basis, the process of a trumpet presidency --the prospect of a trump presidency is moving around. let's say trump wins. is this a risk off for the peso, are traders divorcing it from the fundamentals? win: i think you hit the nail on the head. they are not so concerned with the day-to-day fluctuations, more like the speculative market. there are a lot of negative things about mexico. if you are looking for fundamental reasons, there are there. trump is noise around the real statement. record low capillary, domestic violence -- there is enough stuff there. because the peso is liquid and tradable, it is often used as a proxy for emerging markets. was when wepound last spoke. it was used as a proxy for emerging markets is a correlation. what about the situation in argentina? is it a political problem there as well? trump orfected as by duterte. win: this goes back to the political arena, but one generation before. -- electednd cursor on premises of freeing up the exchan

be mexican peso, it seems to a tracking mechanism for donald trump's success.n with the mexican peso? there are several factors. clearly, the u.s. election is a big factor. what donald trump has been ,rguing against, nafta, trade those are things that mexico has invested significantly over the stands to be affected in a big way. there are other macro economic factors at play. there is the deterioration of public finances in mexico. there is a current account that has been widening, notwithstanding the low levels of growth. you need a lower currency to basically help you to rebalance the economy. jonathan: is mr. trump doing mexicans a favor at this point? mind, thing to have in and excessive volatile currency is not good for decision-making on investment and consumption. i would say in general the negative perceptions that a weak currency generates in the overall population is not good. areourse, mexican goods cheaper and that helps eventually. but when you have this type of potential shock, the u.s. election, you want that to pass and then reassess what the ec

. >> let us have a look at the mexican peso. contentious is the word that comes to mind.t has gone from zero to hero and back again. this was the best-performing emerging market currency. debate,e presidential the market was shorting and the market has switched those bearish bets by 65%. >> the peso has emerged as a proxy for donald trump chances for winning. the markets are thinking a certain way at the moment. >> let us take a look at the u.s. equity markets. there was a reaction in the s&p and the peso. the dow jones was a little less stressed in terms of the markets. the s&p, the probability of a fed rate hike changed that sub 70%. >> here in the middle east, we are just under two hours away from the opening of the emirates markets. let's check on how the markets closed last week. day for the gulf region. markets, let'se get into the bloomberg first word. what have we got four start? independent ruling popularity survived in the country's election. the vote for the pirates jumped to 13.3% fell short of the polling. setting the nation of her broad coalition talks. >> s

. >> one other factor that could help constellation is the decline in the mexican peso.y have a lot of costs over the border. >> constellation has whiskey going for you, the peso going for you. >> mexican beers are a huge part of the revenue. >> never too early for wine and alcoholic video covering a story. early in the morning, but nice to see. >>> top trending stories, the gop releasing a spin on the vp debate before mike pence and tim kaine even hit the stage. a series of articles were posted on the republican national committee's website an hour before the debate began declaring pence the clear winner. the articles were taken down quickly. gop, how does "game of thrones" end? that one coming -- that was funny. not only did they say he won, which you know the party would spin that way, but they gave a five-point plan on he won on the economy. he won on insulting hillary. >> all sorts of early posts from papers as well. >> in case there was doubt that the parties spin these things. >> of course. they have spin doctors, highly paid spin doctors. donald trump also tweeti

the canadian dollar, mexican peso in japanese and this morning. nicole: the same cent galaxy note seven goes up in smoke and cause a southwest airlines plane to be evacuated in louisville. the phone was one of the replacements following a major recall. the good news is no one on the flight was injured. >> it was a little disheartening to see that happen on the plane, but to hear somebody knowing in advance that it was a cell phone, that ride a little bit of calm to what was going on. nicole: safety regulators investigating this could lead to a second recall of the device. samsung says it will carefully review proposals made by hedge fund management for restructuring as well as the dividend. they wrote a letter spelling out changes that include splitting into a holding company, listing its operating company on the nasdaq. the news has been pushing the shares in south korea to a record high today. nicole: to government health plans spend more than a billion dollars between 2011 and 2015. that comes to the centers for medicare and medicaid services.

the mexican peso is stronger today. are implying that -- >> i think we look at the long-term look at the peso. it is much weaker. >> that's why i'm saying there is no declared winner from last night. it's completely hard to do it. i think the way to think about it in market terms is trump beat expectations after guidance and analyst estimates were massively lower. >> when you said if both houses of congress went, there were a couple sectors, like you heard. i would add the private sector. >> first of all -- >> you don't need to pick biotech or energy. >> come on, the house is a long way from tipping. >> the hope springs eternal, though. >> i think that's why the market just sits back and they don't actually want to rush to price in, except where you have some kind of sense of the probabilities that are turning in one direction. >> so what about people who are trying to play currencies? these are multi-trillion dollar extremely liquid markets that have shown us this year that they can turn on a dime. the people say, i'm g

and why in the course of events did the mexican peso tank? charlie gasparino here, charlie, why did that happen? >> uncertainty about the election, you know the market uncertainty. the markets at least on first blush do not like a donald trump candace i. his junkyard dogness is bad for stability. you notice the markets recovered a little bit, that was me buying stocks, neil, on a donald trump victory, hurting the market, buying the dip. and here's what the markets are forgetting. some people in the markets get this. if donald trump gets elected president, guess what happens, les regulation, lower taxes, elizabeth warren is forgotten because the republicans will probably take the senate. this is all great stuff for the markets. but the initial blush of the markets is he's bad because of the uncertainty. i think long-term he's good for the markets, that's my opinion. and i'll tell you a lot of smart wall street people agree with that as well. >> and what happened to the mexican peso yesterday, it tumbled and i guess the betting was that he's go

the euro and the mexican peso stronger against the u.s. dollar above the canadian dollar and japanese yen or weaker against the u.s. dollar. trends revealed on the treasury stands at 1.76%. lauren: twitter chile a 300 people as early as this week. that's a percent of the workforce. this juggling media company cut the percentage of workers a year ago. twitter set to report its third-quarter earnings on thursday and higher bankers to explore the would be acquired salesforce in disney. they backed out. the stock is looking not too far off from work was yesterday. the big circuit covers around that. >> apple scheduled to report their results later today. shares of the iphone of the key figure to watch because sydney got two thirds of apple's overall revenue. today's numbers will include sales of the new iphone seven and the seven plus released late last month toward the end of the quarter. apple could get an extra boost from rival samsung. it issued a major recall of its galaxy notes on an and discontinued the phone. shares higher in premarket

. >> what about the mexican peso, this is seen as the proxy for a donald trump probability of winning.s. election. what's priced in at this point and how do you trade that going into november 8th? >> look, some people are trading the skew on that, basically that the far out of the money options are much more expensive than close to the money options. obviously -- >> you mean it will get volatile around election day. >> it will get volatile, but it's not going to move as far as the market is afraid it's going to move. i think that obviously since the third debate where it didn't look like trump was able to deliver any kind of knockout blow, i think the market has been shifting odds towards a clinton victory. some polls being very wide. the view being she's not nearly as aggressive on trade either as trump is or as her election rhetoric is. basically people are buying back some things they sold. >> if bemove we move on to the best currency, the british pound, what is your thought about that? >> or the world's worst performing. >> depends on how you look at it. >> investors were on the s

, i mean everyone, watching the debate tonight, including wall street, recently we've seen the mexican pesot move in tandem with donald trump's polling. >> kate and john, tonight's debate could have repercussions on the financial markets this week. remember, after the first debate, we saw a relief rally the next day. the dow jumped 134 points after hillary clinton was widely perceived to be the winner. you might think, donald trump, a republican billionaire businessman would be wall street's dream candidate. the market appears to favor clinton for one key reason. uncertainty. and it is what wall street fears the most. the general consensus is this. investors know what they're getting if hillary clinton wins the white house. trump is seen as a wild card. investors worry that his tough talk to lead to a trade war or even a recession. if he emerges the victor tonight, we very well could see a selloff tomorrow when stocks open for trading. >> christina, thank you so much. for more on what's moving the market, go to cnnmoney to sign up for the before the bell newsletter. >> thanks, everyone, for

canadian dollar mexican peso and japanese yen weaker against the u.s. dollar. the south african landfalling 3% this morning. lauren: let's take a look at the 10 year treasury note. 1.77%. nicole: earnings season kicking off from alcoa with the opening bell mark of the unofficial start to earnings season and the other minute giants final report before it splits into two companies. i'll call expected to afford his first job in over a year thanks to recent increase in positive trend in aluminum prices. looking for a profit of 35 cents per share on revenue of $5.3 billion. the big banks this week, results are the biggest names in effect later on in the week. citigroup, jpmorgan chase and wells fargo will release the latest numbers and it all happen before the opening bell on friday. analysts look for a sharp decline from city of jpmorgan and a more modest drop from wells fargo. it is under scrutiny after a fraudulent account scandal. as for revenue, jpmorgan, wells fargo to improve a bit but fall a citigroup. truth to americans plan to spend more in the holiday sho

what the mexican peso is doing and what gas, gold and stocks are doing as well. look at the price of gold, it's falling. that means investors aren't looking for a safe haven because a more predictable clinton is expected to win. peso is jumping because the thought is without trump in office the u.s./mexico relationship won't be hurt. gas prices aren't spiking, they're holding steady. even investor polling data points to clinton. 60% of investors now say clinton is the best candidate for the stock market versus 40% who say trump is. there is one indicator pointed at trump, how the s&p 500 has been doing since august. it's down 2% which works in trump's favor. carol, even the analysts who came up with that indicator say that should be viewed as a guide, never gospel. carol? >> we'll do. alison kosik live from the new york stock exchange. >>> business news personalized, the only way you can follow the business, company leaders that mean most to you. download it on your iphone or android device. >>> and good morning. i'm carol costello. thank you so much for joining