michael feroli chief u.s. economist at jp morgan. hing occurred to me as we were reading that introduction where we talked a little about higher than expected inflation and maybe some slowing in the chicago pmi. is the fed's challenge neither going to be inflation or too fast growth but something we remember called stagflation, perhaps? >> well, i think right now the bigger challenge is inflation. take that much signal from the growth numbers we saw this morning. particularly with the labor market, that continues to add jobs. pretty robustly, so i do think what we see friday morning will be a lot more important than what we saw this morning with respect to any stagnation of the economy. absent that, i think job number one continues to be, as it has been for the past two or three years, continues to be inf inflation. >> why are you a little against the grain right now in predicting three rate cuts this year, when many are retreating from that number to two, one, some zero, what makes you confident? >> well, we're a little on our heels