michael gapen of barclays is still with us, and has a view on that subject. right. obviously the halting of production is going to slow manufacturing data. we have been talking about will manufacturing bottom, what evidence we are seeing of that. this, like the gm auto strike, will be something that muddies the water. as it pertains to boeing, the cessation of production, if it is on hold for the whole quarter, could shave at least 0.5% off of gdp growth. romaine: wow. so far, though, boeing has said they will keep those workers around. they will still get paid. is there any risk if this drags on past the first we could see those workers without work? michael g: what we were looking at is the direct effect. if you halt production, what is the direct effect on growth? that as people, who know the boeing production process, it is highly fine-tuned and precisely timed, so we think the longer the shutdown goes on, the more you will have downstream effects on suppliers. those numbers could get you even closer to 1% of gdp. if it goes pasty first quarter, certainly

david: we are talking with michael gapen, chief u.s. economist at barclays. is an election year. is that likely to affect the fed, they will not do much to rock the boat? michael: i think the fed would act if it felt it needed to. it probably raises the bar a little bit for action in either direction. if it is obvious the economy is weakening, they will need to respond. next year iso hike virtually impossible. you would need inflation running to 2.5% and inflation expectations moving higher. the most you can get out of the fed is a shift in communication around the middle of the year. the risk to the outlook balance. that is as far as i think they go. david: what things do you look at? what bellwethers? is it consumers? housing? michael: in terms of understanding how things could be better -- what we are paying a lot of attention to his participation. we would love to have productivity pick up, but there are ways you can get a benign outlook for the fed and a stronger-than-expected economy. that would be if the rise in participation continues. there are reaso