michael gapen read it because he wanted to. chief u.s. economist at barclays. s the treasury taper different from a fed taper? michael: the fed's unique holder of securities. they are different actors. onnet these two things generally cancel each other out but the fed's backing up the market as a unique buyer. that is the main message. i would not take the net comparison too far. i think the big news is the fed will be tapering. tom: the big news is they will be tapering and they'll be cautious and conservative. this november how measured will chairman powell be? michael: he will be fairly measured. when the fed's tightening policy they like to offset it by giving something on the others. i do not think they'll be a strong push back against market pricing. i think it will be an emphasis that does the -- the decision to taper and the decision to lift rates are two different things. that is what he will try to soft pedal the taper message with. yes we are starting to taper and we are still concerned about risk to the outlook. there is a risk management component t

. >> leslie, thank you >>> coming up, a contrarian call on the fed michael gapen will tell us why theredeflation in the market and what that means for the fed's timeline on interest rates increases. >>> mixed picture for yields today. the ten year hovering around 164. the theme of the week has been higher yields. we're seeing that in the short end with the two-year yield up we'll be right back. >>> let's check on some individual market movers deer reporting mixed results saying that solid demand helped offset the impact of a month-long worker strike and auto desk chair is tanking despite reporting a beat on the top and bottom line. yesterday after the close, the company issuing fourth quarter guidance that came in largely below estimates and you see there, auto desk down 16%. more than 25% off its -- >> they blame everything, supply chain disruptions, labor shortage for a software company -- >> they serve construction, engineering, architectures time for a news update with rahel solomon. >>> family and supporters of ah ahmaud arbery thanking the jury. >> i never saw this day back in 202

michael gapen of barclays wrote in saying he i would be shocked if he pushes back on rate hikes.der what a shorter cycle looks like given how much debt is out there. jonathan: can risk assets hold up? isn't this what tony dwyer started the conversation with? tony's view is if you do not have a recession equities keep going higher. lisa: what determines a recession? jonathan: you just use the term shorter cycle. lisa: what is the trigger. if it is not a policy era -- error, is it a cooling off of activity? jonathan: amazing we have economists forecasting 4% gdp growth and there is this conversation on the side about end of cycle. lisa: danny blanchflower is leading the conversation. jonathan: he will join us on wednesday. i did that one for you. lisa: thank you. jonathan: from new york -- mi i getting bullied today? lisa: no. jonathan: a bit. lisa: it is good to have you back. ♪ moving is a handful. no kidding! fortunately, xfinity makes moving easy. easy? -easy? switch your xfinity services to your new address online in about a minute. that was easy. i know, right? and even save