before we turn to her, michael gapen, you have had time to pour through this, your takeaway? l g.: it is probably the first time in two years we have talked when we have a forecast spot on will stop your main point was this is a report that came in before the recent conflict. the contours were as we had expected. we were looking for gas up 7%. very much in line with what michael had reported. food prices up strongly. this is where the new impulse is coming from. from a moment we have a reprieve. let's see if that continues. if it does it will provide an offset from headline laois and, but inflation -- from headline inflation, but inflation is not likely to come down. we need to see how long the conflict plays out and how disruptive the sanctions regime is. lisa: the reaction in markets is not that significant. people were prepared for this because you and others got it spot on. how much does that tell you about how much or how little people are pricing in 7.9% given where yields are? michael g.: it is a difficult situation to be a bond trader. where yields are is consistent wi

i was talking to michael gapen yesterday from barclays.oods. one of the biggest things is cars normally, okay, we'll see car sales decline. except for one thing we are 4 million cars a year below normal so what he said, this is going to come back anyway despite the energy price spike you know, a lot of the old rules don't apply. we have a lot more -- our energy production is essentially in balance. we import as much as we export 11.6 up 25 rigs the ceos are saying there's a limit to how much they can bring back certainly, we're producing a lot of oil in this country that means, david, that the money we used to send overseas in previous price spikes stays home. >> yeah, a lot, of course, due to really what was a huge technical advance in terms of tra fracking which happened some time ago but resulted in this country being essentially saudi arabia >>> that'll do it for us here on "squawk on the street. let's get to "tech check" right now. ♪ >>> good tuesday morning i'm carl quintanilla with jon fortt and dierdre bosa we're going to take up t

michael gapen tells me oil shock has negative effects on consumption but they are less pronounced thanpen points out the share of household spending on gasoline it's nearly halved since the '60s americans are going to be angry at the price at the pump but ultimately not going to be as angry as their parents or grandparents were. the speed of the hike is what call sudden economic dislocation and some pain, but the big way these spikes hurt is endurable goods, and the u.s. is so far down in auto sales because of the pandemic and supply shocks that sales are going to rise almost whatever happens with oil. so there's a massive hurdle for the economy for high oil prices and the commodity price you're talking about, but the economics of the price surge are different this time, the negative effects, they could be different as well. joe? >> all right, steve, yeah, we have seen this movie before and i don't know, you know, why we're surprised. do you that maybe you're going to see some type of a slow down i mean it really i've seen numbers staggering about how much this could cost people. $2,00