welcome to you, michael hanson senior economist at bank of america. good to have you with us. i take it that you're in the camp that believes it is probably a little more than likely that the fed will raise rates in september. there was nothing in this report that changes your mind on that is there? >> no if anything it probably nudged the fed closer to a september rate hike. the one thing soft was wages, but payroll growth has been strong unemployment rate's getting close to the level the fed starts to think the market is getting tight, so it very much leaves september in play. >> how strong is economic growth overall, and are we at a sort of level that we should just get accustomed to 2.5 to 3% a year? >> yeah 2.5% to 3% is probably above the long-term trend, given the fundamentals of the economy right now. it's enough to probably keep job growth for a while in the 200,000 range and probably not to get to 4% or 5% any time soon unfortunately. >> if you watched the debates last night, jeb bush said that he thinks a target we should aim for is 4% in the economy. he said he con

and then on the economy, michael hanson is here. the senior u.s. economist at bank of america merrill lynch global research. you saw his argument. what's going to happen? >> we will see a rate hike in september and that's probably what should happen given the domestic economy and how much it has improved. it has been far from a flawless recovery but it's been a recovery. what we expect though is a very different path of tightening than what we've seen in the past. expect hills and plateaus. hills and plateaus. we're going to ease into tightening in a very gentle way. >> the argument is its more of a straight line. >> he believes once you start you can't stop. you definitely can't go backwards. >> that does not seem to be the intention of the fomc. they want to analyze data points as they move forward. i should not be a straight line. >> where are you on this? >> september probably more likely than not. obviously with china, the uncertainty has come up a little bit on that but if you look at the what the fed is focussing on its the labor market. the