military is looking at this stuff and gets a better grasp of where that plane went. >> michael kay isng next to me, shaking his head. not going to happen, michael? >> no. don, look, the preliminary report will give you a few basic facts. i think we know there's a recommendation about real-time tracking of airplanes. potentially, it's not going to give you conclusions, it's not going to give you analysis. it's not going to give you a probable cause. i would be very surprised if it contained anything on the inmarsat data. >> you think it's fairly generic? is this going to be sort of -- >> let say there was something in there about radar. i think we've learned to take it with a pinch of salt. so much inconsistency within the data and the information that, again, you know, just -- it's not credible. >> thank you very much. >> we're not getting the whole story. that's the problem. >> right. >> mark baer, michael kay, mary schiavo, thank you. appreciate all of you. >>> the lead story of this hour, owner of the clippers in hot water for allegedly making racist remarks. the comments have igni

we have lieutenant colonel michael kay joining us. a retired british military officer and richard quest is host of "quest means business." we have arnold karr joining us. he is a sonar expert. gentlemen, i'm paying close attention and you are the experts. let me begin by telling you what i see. i see a circumstance where and i should start by saying i sure hope it is true. i hope for the families they are about to get some closure. however, this would mean without finding debris, we have found a pinger and presumably a black box. that seems counterintuitive to me. it strikes me this is presumably the final day, day 30, in the life span of the battery. dare i say, it's the chinese. haven't we had conversations thus far in the process about their purported lack of sharing satellite imagery. when they did share the satellite imagery, the image they shared was doctored or blurry. also, just two hours prior to this news breaking, that the malaysians would have had a press conference which i watched in my hotel room. they did not say anythi

michael kay has a question for you. >> hi, commander, it's michael kay speaking.'m fascinated to know, all being well, you'll repick up this signal. once you have picked it up, or both of them, what is the process of fixing that location? >> okay, commander, can you do me a favor? i have got to get to a break. can you stick with me on the other side of the break? i just have 15 seconds before we must get to a break. we'll answer michael kay's question on the other side of the break with the commander out on the uss blueridge. don't go anywhere. breaking news here on cnn. >>> top of the hour, everyone. i am don lemon. i want to welcome in our viewers in the united states and around the world. we're following breaking news here on cnn. and we have just learned the u.s. navy's towed pinger locator has detected two signals consistent with an airplane's black box in the search for this flight 370. this ship, the ocean shield first detected a signal that lasted approximately two and a half hours, two hours and 20 minutes, i should say. and then lost the signal, turned b

last hour i asked two cnn aviation analyst the, michael kay and jeff wise, to try to make sense of all of this for us. >> i think there are serious ramifications to any information that would lead to a false start. what i mean by that is not just from tony abbot's political credibility but also the number-one priority at the moment which is getting closure for the families and loved ones of mh 370. i do think we've seen over the last week optimism creeping in to the investigation. we saw angus houston's press conference last saturday. that then led to the australian defense prime minister having a sort of smaller press conference. and now we see tony abbot on the international stage talking with increased optimism. i'd also say that i don't think we will be seeing tony abbot with this optimism if he hadn't consulted with those other five countries that form part of the team under this investigation. that is the u.k., u.s., china, malaysia, and france. >> okay. jeff wise, let me ask you this then -- is there -- is there the chance, of course there's a chance, but how likely is it that a

investigator, david soucie, and aviation correspondent, richard quest, and retired lieutenant colonel, michael kay. michael, you've had a look at the transcript. very short, quick read. anything seem out of the ordinary to you? >> a bit of information that is pertinent, who made the transcript. was a single pilot, the captain, co pilot or a mixture of two conversations going on. i think there were some key pieces to the transcript in terms of we now know that the aircraft had an individual squawk. it was 2157. that's quite important, because on transoceanic flights, the aircraft are given a generic 2000. so you're going to see a number of aircraft at the same 2000. this was given 2157, because it was given what's called an s.i.d., standard instrument departure. what that means, when you have heavy traffic flow, it's a procedural departure that approach can give the jet to then get it on its way to beijing. what they did was, when they went on to approach, that s.i.d., standard instrument departure, was cancelled. not unusual, but it was cancelled because of low air traffic volume. so effectively,

michael kay has -- richard quest has covered every crash since lockerbie in '88. >> every major crash kay, i'd like you to address this new information to rich and marty. >> michael kay speaking. great to see you guys. we all know about the astonishing piloting skills of the pilot that landed on the hudson. i think what that's given to people is a false sense of just how easy it may be to land an airplane on the high seas. can you give us a sense how easy or difficult that might be, not just by day but by this day by night? >> i can answer that for you. landing an aircraft on the water as any time of day is extremely dangerous. it all depends on the sea state. the type of airplane. at night typically, i mean, yes, we have landing lights. but they're very -- they're canted downwards. they can mess up your illusion. they can cause an illusion. we normally use only the taxi lights because they're a more general direction. if there's ocean spray those lights are going to distort, be more of a hindrance than anything else. so it's a very dangerous proposition. >> the sea state, of course,

david soucie and lieutenant michael kay are with me.aying it behaved like a commercial airliner, but it doesn't seem like any other commercial airliner. they certainly don't take sudden turns away from their flight path. colonel kay, what's the protocol when this happens? it's been sort of the common assumption, especially since 9/11, you go and you take a look. >> it's a graduated response. deemed not hostile. okay. suspicious. there's no doubt in my mind it was suspicious. it wasn't flight planned. ifr or bfr. it wasn't part of routine airways traffic. the red flag thing you raise is spot on. there are protocols area radar can take when they see an unidentified trace on the screen. the first one is they go to the distress cell, they pick up the radio, they pick up the sat com and they try to talk to the airplane or whatever it is that disappeared. then they try to speak to other aircraft in thes ha s havvicini. there are lots of checks and balances before you get to ringing the military to say we've had someone drop off radar, get som

lieutenant colonel michael kay. jeff wise, the author of "extreme fear: the science of your mind in danger." jim tilmon, a retired american airlines pilot. and steven marks, an aviation attorney, who represents the families of another disaster, air france flight 447. again, we're expecting that news conference to happen at any moment now from the joint agency coordinate, center chief angus houston, along with a minister for defense, senator david johnson. geoffrey thomas, you're there in perth. >> am i still needed? >> yes, you are still needed. >> i'm still on. >> you didn't introduce me. i thought i was talking to your producer, i apologize. >> you need no introduction, bill nye. we're going to need you as well. >> we can find an airplane in the middle of the ocean, but we can't know whether or not we're on camera. >> that is your issue, at this point, bill nye. so thank you, we appreciate the comedic moment there. but let's get back to business. geoffrey thomas, you're there in perth. what k you tell us? richard

our panel, michael kay. as a lieutenant colonel who spent many, many hours in the air unrelated kinds of searches and investigations, et cetera, they cannot have abandoned the force they've been using for the air search and just the debris fields. >> i think it's inconceivable that we could think the black boxes would be found without finding any sort of debris field whatsoever. as i've said many times on air, there is no smoke without fire. i still stand by that. we've got some very capable air assets. the good thing about air assets, maritime surveillance craft, they can get places quickly. the p-8 travels 500 knots. they can get places. as i was talking about previously, they've got these passive sonars as well. they can get places and they can rule places out before you then decide to launch the vessels which obviously take a lot longer to get there. >> tim taylor, at this point, as all of the investigators and the -- the organizational team based out of the perth has effectively led everybody to underst

aviator and royal air enforcement colonel michael kay and christine dennison. i really hate asking this question. but it has to be asked, richard quest. after sunday, what hope do we really have if those pingers stop pinging? >> we have as much hope as we have with air france 447. now, in that case, they had a debris field. not only did they have a debris field, but they couldn't find the black boxes and couldn't find the pingers. and they went backwards and forwards and when they went over with the locater, went over with the plane several times and still find it. >> even though it was pinging. >> yes. thereafter, over several years, they did go back each year. i think it was four attempts in all. >> they had a splash zone. >> they did. >> they knew. >> but it was still very deep water and they had to use underwater vehicles to actually find it. and they never did find the black box with pingers or anything else. they found it by seeing pieces of the debris down there and literally working their way through. you're right, they had a debris field. they had a se

back with me now, geoffrey involuntary manslaughter, bill nye, michael kay, steve marks, and paul ginsburg. paul, i want to get to you quickly, because i want to talk about what he said. we're wondering about the legitimacy of 33.2 kilohertz, was it credible. angus houston said, yes. we have to remember that air france came in at 34 kilohertz, because of the pressure of the ocean, the depth, the age of the batteries, it can change the transmission level. do you concur? >> well, there's an easy way to find out. i would suggest that we do an experiment as part of this investigation by dropping new working pingers into this part of the ocean, and measure the characteristics, the frequence, and the variation from one to another, to see whether these agree with our observations. in other words, what i'm saying is, let's have a real reference in this part of the ocean, and to see whether what we are observing is something that is credible as a pinger representation, where we are. >> bill nye, as a science person, you want a controlled experiment, so to speak, to make sure that they are on to som

aviation analyst michael kay and and liz aben, joined us a short time ago. take a listen. lipt to start with you, michael and get an idea of what you make with this and how cautious you were being and on you encouraged you are being as well? >> all of the above, i think the reality of this is that what we have seen so far since day one, has rewritten the history book in terms of the way of crash investigations will be done in the future. we have effectively bypassed the haystack and zoning in to needle. which is unprecedented in accident investigations. however, we do need to maintain this that element of cautious optimism, yesterday, during our chief master houston's press conference, i was optimistic and having heard what the air marshal said today, i'm more optimistic than cautious and there's reasons for that. at least two to three days to go, having spoken to commander william marks earlier on about an hour ago they have to go and do three runs before they can triangualate and fix that point and that takes a long time. >> what do you make of the announcement that angus

michael kay, mark soucie and don dombroff.id a possible fire bring the plane down and what about sudden compression and the ghost flight it turned into, that's coming up after the break. better for hi, he's agreed to give it up. that's today? [ male announcer ] we'll be with him all day as he goes back to taking tylenol. i was okay, but after lunch my knee started to hurt again. and now i've got to take more pills. ♪ yup. another pill stop. can i get my aleve back yet? ♪ for my pain, i want my aleve. ♪ [ male announcer ] look for the easy-open red arthritis cap. ♪ ♪ (train horn) vo: wherever our trains go, the economy comes to life. norfolk southern. one line, infinite possibilities. if yand you're talking toevere rheuyour rheumatologistike me, about a biologic... this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain. this is humira helping me lay the groundwork. this is humira helping to protect my joints from further damage. doctors have been prescribing humira for ten years. humira works by targeting and helping to bloc

michael kay had a question for you. michael, if you can repeat your question, then he can answer it for you. >> hi, commander, my name is michael kay again. fascinated and hopefully that you will be able to pick up this signal on the rerun. i'd be absolutely curious to know how you fix the position once you receive the signal. >> sure. the way the process works is it's called triangulating through lines. for the navy, this is from -- i did it way back in high seas at the u.s. naval academy. the way you do it is you get a line of bearing. that's just a simple direction. for example, 090 might be a direction. then you have to continue your motion in order to get another line of bearing. and it needs to be a distance away from the first one and then when you get that second one, it creates an x. then you have the two. where the x crosses in the middle is your indication of where the point may be. you then continue on, hopefully get a third. and if that third line of bearing crosses in the middle of the first two, you now ha

jeff wise, michael kay, steven marks, an aviation attorney. well, a poll finds that 35% believe it was crashed by mechanical problems. 22% believe it was crashed by pilots. and 12%, destroyed by terrorists. and 9% say it landed safely. has anything changed your mind? les? >> i'm with the 35% that think it's honestly a mechanical problem. i would like to see us head in the direction of more specific search area spots. dave and mike have discussed this over the period of time. and narrowing the search area is so important. i think that who did it is best left to authorities. let's find the plane. >> and let's talk about this a little bit more. steven? where do you fall on this. crashed by the pilots? is there any possible motive for this, do you believe? steven marks? we don't have steven marks. i'll ask you about this, mike. >> well, the problem is, we don't have enough evidence to eliminate any one of the four options. so, as les was saying, quite wisely, we just need to keep putting the jigsaw puzzle together. eliminate the data that supports

michael kay, to you, even with the prime minister saying what he is saying i think you, jim tillman,ey're looking in the right area. >> yeah, don, there are certain implications of getting the information wrong. the number one priority right now is getting closure for the families and loved ones. so i would like to see more corroboration, less reverse engineer where the search area is, and let's draw back the track and the path that the aircraft would have had to fly across malaysia and the transponder pinger was. what is that distance? could the aircraft be able to physically fly that with the fuel load we know it had? if it could, what were the logistics? i'm not convinced. >> he says he knows where it is within a few kilometers. >> yeah, i don't know how he knows that. how he can find that. you know, i'm sure on board a ship, it is impossible to -- with only the pinger, it is not enough. we need evidence. we need a piece of the plane or something. >> but you're not convinced the plane is even where they think it is? >> why -- because we don't know where the information is coming f

. >> michael kay, les abend, stick around. we are waiting for a news conference from the head of the search effort at the bottom of the hour. in the meantime our coverage continues. nic robertson is in kuala lumpur where a new group has heard the air traffic control conversations. good evening to you, nick. . >> friends and colleagues of the first officer and the captain on board. which one of the two was the one who was last to communicate with the air traffic controllers is key in the investigation. more after this break. can be. w painfuln for fast, long lasting relief, use doctor recommended gaviscon®. only gaviscon® forms a protective barrier that helps block stomach acid from splashing up- relieving the pain quickly. try fast, long lasting gaviscon®. relieving the pain quickly. so ally bank has a that won't trap me in a rate. that's correct. cause i'm really nervous about getting trapped. why's that? uh, mark? go get help! i have my reasons. look, you don't have to feel trapped with our raise your rate cd. if our rate on

lieutenant colonel michael kay. jeff wise, the author of "extreme fear: the science of your mind in danger." jim tilmon, a retired american airlines pilot. and steven marks, an aviation attorney, who represents the families of another disaster, air france flight 447. again, we're expecting that news conference to happen at any moment now from the joint agency coordinate, center chief angus houston, along with a minister for defense, senator david johnson. geoffrey thomas, you're there in perth. >> am i still needed? >> yes, you are still needed. >> i'm still on. >> you didn't introduce me. i thought i was talking to your producer, i apologize. >> you need no introduction, bill nye. we're going to need you as well. >> we can find an airplane in the middle of the ocean, but we can't know whether or not we're on camera. >> that is your issue, at this point, bill nye. so thank you, we appreciate the comedic moment there. but let's get back to business. geoffrey thomas, you're there in perth. what k you tell us? richard

first to michael kay. a question from joe nemo.uded mystifying the final fate of flight 370, wouldn't it make sense to disable the elts, too? that's a very good question. >> that is a good question. i'm not actually sure how you would disable the elts, but just for factual data, there are four beacons on the aircraft. there are two elts, emergency locator transmitters, in the nose and the tail. they are activated by g-loading, and then two sit in a compartment next to the emergency exit on a life raft and they are activated by salt water, so i think there are lots of questions on why there weren't activations of the elts. i think the simple answer is they are not black boxes, they are not rugged, therefore, they break. >> question from joe, but before we go to that, from everything to fail on this plane, just seems like the perfect sort of scenario here, all the elts failed, other communications failed, nobody can find anything. come on. that's stranger than fiction. >> well, this whole entire mystery is stranger than fiction, but

cnn's michael kay.shiler, telemanager of bp design systems which designs and builds the black box pingers and also the pinger detectors. perhaps you can tell me what the job is now. now that we've had these two very promising detections, marchly from the ocean shield, because it seems to be the longest, the two-hour ping followed by the 15-minute ping that had the echo. what's the job now for the ocean shield? what are they trying to do? >> they're trying to do -- kind of cover the area and narrow where they thing the ping's coming from. they need to shrink the box they're going to look in when they put the vehicle down. the problem right now is the sound propagates through the ocean so they don't have any real knowledge about where exactly that is. as you look at the time and difficulty of putting the blue fin 21 down the water, you want a very good understanding of where that ping would be. >> let's just go on the second detection that lasted only 13 or so minutes. then there was this double ping goin

i want to bring in cnn aviation analyst and retired british royal air force michael michael kay and les abend and there at the end, famed ocean pioneer jacques cousteau and also fame noud in his own right. cnn analyst and ocean expert, david gallo. welcome to the panel. thank you for coming in. i just had a conversation, actually, with -- what's his name? the other cousteau. >> which one? >> jacques, fabian. >> sebob. >> a small group. >> i wanted him to come in and talk about it and he's working on a show and he will come in i time. so, listen, i want to start with that part of the world is considered extremely, extremely -- it's considered extreme, right? i should just say an extreme part of the world. how long can they keep looking? forever? this is very costly. you have a lot of people out there tiring themselves out. >> that's just it. you're talking about trying to find an object like the you were looking through the front door keyhole to see what's going on up in the attic. that's how clueless we are about this area. we have limited access to technology, although the technology t

with me now to talk about this is michael kay, retired royal air force pilot, and christine dennison, whose company specializes in ocean exploration. so the reality colonel kay, is that this search can't go on forever. and we're starting to hear that articulated by some of the officials in australia. some say we're going to search until hell freezes over and the others say we need to be prepared for us never finding the plane. as a searcher, how are you supposed to read that? >> i think it's right to be cautious. and i think the prime minister has as we saw last night started to take a slightly more cautious approach when he's delivering his information, which is a good thing. one thing i will say is it would be virtually impossible to replace the military assets that we currently have used on the search. we talk about the p-8 poseidon, that's a $280 million airplane. you're not going to be able to pull in those -- >> i think there's two of them now on site. there was one and then another one was coming from the pacific at some point as well and joining in the search. which is great,

first one will go to michael kay. we have a question from mabel.ays what are the first steps taken in the investigation once the plane is found? >> i guess my answer to that, don, is which part of the plane is found first. that is critical. if it is surface debris, i think the huge bit of the investigation will be allowing closure for the families. that will be absolutely key. we have been talking about bypassing the hay stack and going if for needle. and that is the black box and fdr and cvr. there are memorandums of understanding being drawn up right now as to who would handle the processing of that data. would it be the ntsb, the aaib or the australian. >> i have to go to david. pete meyer says a lot of questions on the show seem to assume the black boxes are sitting on the ocean floor or buried in the silt. wouldn't they still be inside the fuselage? >> absolutely. that's right. if we have given that impression or if i have it is incorrect. it should be and probably will be surrounded by and very doiflt extract from the wreckage itself. >> this

i was going to take that point to michael kay.families who have been all over the spectrum with grief, with hope, with fear. what would you say to them, especially, you know with the majority of passengers and china and now this is coming from the state news agency there, xinhua, what would you say to families as we wait for word of the pulse signal that they picked up? >> the next piece of information that air chief marshal releases and he is the guy leading the ship from the joint coordination cell. the next bit of information he releases has to be unhe kw unequivocal. that is the first point. the second point is that the whole dissemination of the piece has moved for the better as the investigation progressed. it is absolutely key that the air chief marshal jumps on anyone at this point, if there is anything linked to 370, it comes through the coordination center and doesn't get leaked out. if it gets leaked out as we hear from the chinese news agency, it will just give false storms to those friends and family who are waiting f

paramount. >> michael kay, thanks very much.s, thanks to you, ken christianson, peter goelz. more on this story coming up later. >>> breaking news on the fate of a young american man who's in custody in north korea. u.s. officials are closely monitoring the situation. let's bring in foreign affairs reporter elise labott. she has the latest information. what are you learning? >> wolf, he was with a tour group when detained and told he was existing some pretty strange behavior as he went willingly into the hands of the north koreans. the 24-year-old american was picked up by north korea for his, quote, rash behavior. north korean state media didn't release a picture but identified him as miller matthew todd. they sea he tore up his visa and promised to seek asylum as he passed through customs. u.s. officials told cnn they learned about his detention days ago but are not confirming it publicly. >> we are of course aware of the reports that a u.s. citizen was detained in north korea. >> reporter: the news of the detention seems time

with me is aviation analyst l les aubin and michael kay with the air force. ichael, what is the best news for this expensive search and resources, air or sea? >> i think it's a combination of both, don. i think you have to have a combination of both in terms of maximizing the possibilities of linking something to the resting place in the south indian ocean of mh 370. there is a natural pause here in terms of the search tempo in terms of the air side and the bluefin as well. the big decision that angus houston had to make 12 days ago was going from the pinger, which was looking for the gpss on the black boxes, making the decision going to bed at night and knowing he'd searched absolutely everything, and then transfer it to the bluefin. once he transfers to the bluefin that's it for the long haul. >> you still think air search and underwater search and not just one or the other? they had said earlier we're going to, the air search going to be over fairly soon. it's still going on but it should be over soon. >> i think the air search needs -- you can't maintain t

what about you, michael kay? >> in one respect, i am cautiously optimistic with this. the air chief had an upbeat tone to his presentation. this is the first time we've been told about a specific distance, two 240 kilometer tracks. that is the most refined analysis we have received in this search. that's the good news. the bad news is that it's still based, in part, on assumptions. speed, height, fuel, endurance. with that becomes a level of inaccuracy. i would also say that this depends on the ship's getting out there in time before the gps batteries run out and stop picking. if they stop pinging, these ping locaters are effectively useless. so yes, cautiously optimistic, but there are still big facts at play. we should be also focusing on the air search. in my view, the most likelihood of finding anything to do with flight 370 in that area would be from the aircraft in the air and not ping locaters. >> mary, this stood out to me. he said the data we have is the data -- or the data we've got is the data we've got. usually most times you have a really good starting poi

michael kay, you have said it would be highly unusual to find the black boxes without finding any debrisin this press conference, he did say they saw some white objects as well that they were taking a look at. >> absolutely. again, no smoke without fire and almost implausible to find black boxes without a debris field first. it really would be hitting the jackpot and i'm not convinced that we will find the black boxes first. i would be delighted clearly. the big thing that comes out of this is we've got the "ocean shield" verifying an acoustic event at the moment and we have the other acoustic event the chinese news agency reported today. i'll be very interested in the distance between those two. speaking with les on the break, i think it's one or the others. i don't think they can be joined together, having the black boxes split from one distance to another. >> it doesn't make sense for one black box to be that far from another black box. it's going to be one or another. >> alan, do you agree with that? >> absolutely. i haven't seen the diagrams or the maps. but it sounds like -- >> ala

>> can michael kay answer that question? the fbi and there will be a lot of investigational authorities that are looking at that aspect of the investigation and i think it is important at this point to remember there are six countries involved in this as the uk and the ntsb and you have france and you have china and you have australia who are conducting the search operation and malaysia and the investigator in charge. there is a lot of horsepower looking into this with the operations and worthiness and medical factors. what i'm invested in is trying to understand the where and the what bit and the why bit. that something i'm trying to steer away from. we don't have enough evidence to go down a specific route. we have enough evidence to keep all the cards on the table, but not enough evidence to take any off. we have to keep a broad mind and not go down a rabbit hole too quickly which is the why bit and phase three. >> michael, this question is from twitter from david. he brought up a scenario i have not heard of yet. he want

bring in our expert panel david gallow who is the hole institute and a sound expert is here and michael kayorce. david, perhaps i can start with you. why such a mystery under the ocean? is it the conditions, the money, the technology? >> sure. it requires technology. it's vast. it's covering 70% of the earth surface and its deep average depth about two and a half miles. the pressure there is incredible. you can crush the "titanic" like a paper cup in your hand and it requires specialized technology to get down there and begin to explore. >> michael, one question that comes to mind here is why aren't they showing -- you have this one blue-fin 21 but others exist in the world and it moves at a walking pace and you're mowing the lawn in effect three miles down. why isn't there half a dozen searching now to narrow the search area more quickly? >> that is a really good question. i think david is probably a better person to answer that. >> well, i think it's the tactics that have been chosen. they have the pinger locations and we only need one vehicle to go right to the spot. captain matthews is

michael kay, why is it so different for pilots? director of the show, the audio track, which the director talks to me it is recorded. >> don, cameras are not the essence of the issue. they are quicker fixes. the time, money and resource to do what you are indicating we should do. >> we're not saying that there aren't other fixes. hear me out. we're not saying there aren't other fixes. we're trying to figure out why pilots are so opposed to this particular one. >> the problem is geolocating or almost near time geolocating can be done by adsb. >> that's the essence of the problem for tracking the plane. we are talking about the actions of the pilot, not the tracking of the airplane. >> the actions of the pilot can be derived from the fdr and cbr. we have been using the system for years and it's not really broken. it's the fact we can't find the plane is the single point of failure. we can't do that because transponders can be turned off. we can solve that problem pretty quickly. >> go ahead, jeff wise. >> listen, don, i'm sympathetic

michael kay is a retired lieutenant colonel in the royal air force and former adviser to the uk defense ministry. tim taylor is a specialist in sea operations and submersibles. two-thirds down, one-third to go. if it finds nothing, what happens, more bluefins, a bigger search area? >> if i was running this operation, i would just be patient. i would look at it from a long haul. they say two-thirds done. i would say 150 dives and they're on dive nine. >> and continue in the same area? >> continue in the same area. this is the best lead. this is the best site to look. under water is like archaeologists digging up, you know, ancient ruins. >> could the bluefin have gone under this and not detected it? >> if it went over it, as a high likelihood, i would just go other -- i would keep expanding the work area. you've got a core area you've searched. i would just keep moving it out. keep going around and around and around. keep expanding that area. >> you're saying be patient, expanding the search area. >> exactly. >> not necessarily moving it. >> expanding it, moving it out. >> michael kay, 4

i also want to welcome cnn aviation expert, richard quest, and also michael kay, retired lieutenant colonelormer helicopter pilot and one-time adviser to the u.k. minute industry of defense. okay. martin, i want to come to you first with this new revelation that there is a circulating flier, so to speak, that's going around malaysian airlines with the information and the new protocols on tightening the cockpit rules for who can be in and when one pilot wants to leave, what must happen and who must come in and take his place. could you two walk me through technically how this happens? because i know those locks aren't like any normal locks on any doors. >> right. i mean, you know, we always are sensitive when we start talking about security issues pertaining to the cockpit that we want to be able to demonstrate to people that there are things that are being done. we don't want to get too specific so people would come up with counter measures. on the 777, there is specifically right here a flight deck door lock, which is an electric switch -- try not to block with my hand. but you can turn it

. >> michael kay, what's your take on what jeff said? do you share that sense of i guess pessimism or sense -- certainly a sense that there's been no significant progress made in the search? >> i think jeff raises a good point. i don't think it's pessimism, i think it's realism. i think one of the consistencies through the last 35 days throughout this whole entire investigation has been you've got just enough evidence to leave all the cards on the table, and we don't have enough evidence to take any cards off the table. that's why we're left in this conundrum. there are three phases to this investigation. there's the where, the what, and the why. we still haven't achieved the where. what we're doing is unprecedented when it comes to aircraft investigations. we're bypassing the haystack and trying to go straight to the needle. that's never happened. we've never found a black box without having debris. so jeff's point is valid. however, i think we need to see the investigation for what it is. we need to understand that it's -- it's very un

michael kay, first to you. you are about 70% convinced we are in the right area. why not 100%. >> i think it is usually positive we have four pings but we have to remember there are constraints with the ping locater. it measures signal strength. it doesn't geo locate. that means there are a number of things that can affect the signal strength. we already talked about the batteries and know they could be weak. but the range f the pinger locater is on the outer limits it will appear weak. also pressure, temperature, it all affects the signal strength. as it goes toward the proximity the signal strength will increase but as it goes away it will decrease. i think there are all of these factors we heard about from bouncing of echos on thermals in the ocean that decrease the accuracy of that. i think we have some time to go before we have unkwif call evidence. >> you have been under almost three miles of water. claustrophobia for most people would be unbelievable and probably the pressure. if the plane is down there, what is it like that deep? >> it's a very quiet place

also joining me is michael kay of the british military.ground of looking at ukraine politics and post-soviet union politics. leon, if i can start with you, we've had disappointing developments in the last 24 to 48 hours. you have a deadly clash between what appears pro-russian forces and pro-kiev forces. and you have no compliance with this agreement worked out between the u.s. and russia, ukraine and others in geneva on thursday for those pro-russian militants to vacate buildings they occupy. doesn't look good for that agreement. tell us your view on how a diplomatic resolution can be worked out to the violence on the ground there now. >> well, you know, diplomacy is usually the end result, it sort of validates the facts on the ground. and it happens only when both sides or more than two sides feel that they need to -- they're forced to negotiate because negotiations is a compromise, you lose something as well as gain something. i don't see at this point much incentive for russia to negotiate. the time is on its side. we already have seen

with me now is aviation analyst michael kay, retired lieutenant colonel and pilot with the royal british21 churning through the ocean and is it time for them to rethink their search operation now? >> i think the whole strategy of the operation is a process, what i mean by that is angus houston will be analyzing the data that he's got and coming up with new strategies every day. if we rewind a little bit and went back to when the aircraft went down and this huge area over 10,000 square miles and then we had the analysis come up and everybody got excited about these northern and southern arcs and then some of the assumptions based on speed and height drew us down into that southern area and remarkably we got these pings. we've gone from 10 million square miles down to 300 square miles. it's all kind of back to front. looking for the needle, remember, without the haystack, relying on those pings from the black boxes and only had a life of 30 to 40 days. about day 38 angus huston had a big decision to make, does he pull the ping locater out and put the bluefin in? when he does that, he effec

michael kay, just first, try to wrap my head around before we talk about how he pulled this off, 35,000even breathing? >> that is a brilliant question. what we're seeing here is if cooperated it's an extraordinary tail of human survival and resilience. there is hypothermia and hi pox ya. hypothermia is when the body drops below 35 degrees. when that happens, the body slowly starts to shut down. the hypoxia aspect is when the body is starved of oxygen. if you keep climbing, slowly the body becomes euphoric where you don't realize what is going on. we were put in a gas chamber. we were asked to do mathematics test. it's phenomenal. when the environmental conditions alone are a truly phenomenal feet. so all around, the small boy really survived. >> do you think we would be telling a different story if it wasn't a young healthier man as opposed to someone much older but equally brazen? >> no doubt about it. this was a 16-year-old with a relatively strong heart. he was able to hide in the other part and hide near the carriage bay where there might be a little bit of room. i did mention that

with me now to discuss this development we have david gallow, audio expert paul ginsburg and michael kaystart with you. if this search is rebooted after five to seven days, should the malaysian government be in charge? should we look at who is leading this for the next phase? >> great question, jim. i think the independent investigator in charge will remain malaysia but i think they will quickly acquiesce in they need help with this and we have seen five other countries come in under this umbrella. you got the uk, u.s., france, australia, and china. thank you is appropriate because of the capabilities of the ntsb brings the capabilities of the investigation from the uk and australia france and everyone brings something to the party across operations, human factors and medical and worthiness, et cetera. i think malaysia will remain in charge but what we are seeing at the moment is memorandums of understanding and i think that is vital. when we do get some progress on this whether it be finding the black boxes we need to make sure that they get to the right people with the best capability

but what does it mean that they haven't cleared the crew, michael kay?is isn't my area of expertise. doing background checks, in terms of the crew, that's a more likely area. if there are any abnormalities in the crew. and the previous flights of the captain and copilot. so, there are logical questions to answer. you don't have to be an fbi investigator to delve into those areas. >> and jeff, why say it was not a criminal act? >> well, they're signaling where they're going. the path that the plane took after it deviated from its assigned route. and then the pings, that's all we've got. looking at the flight route, maneuvered through an intentional, zig-zag pattern. what the malaysians are saying, this was an intentional act, a criminal act, saying that they've cleared the passengers, what they're putting the hammer on this idea that they believe it was the crew. >> and this question from jennifer, tweeting, what does malaysia know that we don't? is there something they know that we don't? >> well, apparently, they do. for any normal investigation, they s

houston, the head of the australian agency coordinating search operations, cnn aviation analyst michael kay, a retired royal air force pilot, former adviser to the uk defense ministry was listen to go this news conference that happened a few hours ago and he broke down some of the key points of what houston had to say. >> i think this was a calm, measured, and supremely effective response by air chief marshall houston. what he did in this press conference, he hit a number of critical points and i'm looking towards the family and loved ones at this point. number one, he confirmed that the ping from chinese news agency wasn't verified. i think that's very important just to reduce everyone's expectations. he then said that he was actually talking to the rcc in china, the rescue coordination center in china. i think that's important because we've been talking about the importance of establishing that communication with china, bringing in that information. he then said -- and i think this was aimed towards the families, all credible leads will be followed up. that reassures the families they're

and michael kay, a retired royal air force pilot broke down the key elements a couple of hours ago. >> a calm, measured and supremely effective response by air chief marshall houston. he hit a couple of critical points in looking towards the family and loved ones. number one, he confirmed the ping from chinese news agency wasn't verified .i think that's very important, just to reduce everyone's expectations. he then said that he was actually talking to the rcy in china, the rescue coordination center in china. i think that's important. we've been talking about the importance of establishing that communication with china, bringing in that information. he then said, and i think this was aimed towards the families, all credible leads will be followed up. and again, that reassures the families that they're not going to gloss over this, so that's great. and then finally, the importance of this really came through when he said he was going to redeploy. we spoke about it early on this evening about redeploying thoses a spepts that places a real importance of just how significance this ping i

so with me now to discuss all the latest, we have analyst michael kay who is with me here in new york air force mary schiavo and ocean search specialist mike williamson. i want to start with you, going to just what was a disastrous meeting between the families of victims on board that plane and malaysian authorities today. they say there's been no mention of an interim payment to them. it's been more than six weeks, 45 days now. in airline scenarios, accident scenarios you've dealt with before, is it unusual to have that much of time, that long of a wait? >> yes, it is unusual. this was certainly an unusual accident. in the united states and other western countries usually what happens is the airline makes an initial payment no strings attached for $25,000. that will help the families get through the times. if they issue death certificates they could make claims and go forward with some type of negotiation on how they want to resolve it. but that initial 25,000 is very, very helpful just to get them through all the crisis and the travel and the things they have to do. >> just imagine

and michael kay, a retired royal air force pilot and former adviser to the uk defense ministry was listeningnd wrote down some of the key points of what houston had to say for us. >> i think this was a calm, measured and effective response by air chief marshal houston. he hit a number of critical points and i'm looking toward the family and loved ones at this point. he confirmed that the ping wasn't verified. i think that's very important just to reduce everyone's expectations. he then said he was talking to the rcc in china, the rescue coordination center in china. we have been talking about the importance of establishing that communication with china and bringing in that information. he then said that all credible leads will be followed up. and again that reassures the families they're not going to gloss over this. that's great. and finally the importance of this really came through when he said he was going to redeploy the assets. and i think that's what he is doing. that places a real importance of how significant this ping is. >> so up until this new information, perhaps the most import

i want to bring in michael kay, a cnn aviation analyst and retired lieutenant colonel in the british hi. >> and rob mccallum, cnn analyst and ocean search specialist. welcome to both of you. >> morning. >> so michael, every hope dashed. the bluefin 21 is 90% done searching in that area. it's mind boggling, right? >> yeah, i think the whole time line that you've just described, carol, describes it beautifully. it's an incredibly unorthodox situation we've got here. it's unprecedented. we've never seen anything like it in aviation history. and i think what we've got just doesn't align to the norms of the way that accident investigations are conducted. i mane, if we just look at where we've got to, the inmarsat analysis is the center of gravity of this whole investigation. if we take the inmarsat analysis away, we don't have a lot. we've got very little, in fact. in fact, we've got a few radar traces which are uncorroborated from malaysia. we've got a little bit from thailand, nothing from indonesia. in the absence of inmarsat, we really are shooting in the dark here. i think inmarsat i

cnn safety analyst david susie, and peter goelz and michael kay. signs at all of this aircraft. are we at the point where the size and scope of the search needs to be reevaluated? are you even convinced that the concentrated efforts need to be still at sea? >> i think, fredricka, there's an iterative evaluation going on from day one. angus houston will be sequential planning. they'll be evaluating the intelligence, the data, the feedback. and he will be doing it 24/7 the fact that we're just reaching another critical phase of the investigation is part and parcel of the way this is playing out. there have been a number of those since the start. the first one was how do we even begin to search an area above 2500 radius from the south china sea over 10 million square miles. then we have the immarsat data. then we get into the unprecedented act of searching for black boxes or the needle without going near the haystack, which never happened in aviation history. so i think at every point there's constant evaluation and analysis going on by the jacc, led b

and analyst michael kay a retired admiral with the british military.n. >> welcome. >> the targeted areas, two-thirds search. the search in that area is just about over. no trace of the plane do you think it really crashed? are the black boxes down there? >> well -- >> i'll take this. >> i hope so. >> go ahead, robert. >> we certainly hope so. and, you know, any day could be the day. you know, the most important thing at the moment is not to rush. speed is no longer of the essence. more important is being accurate. being very thorough, being very precise. to be absolutely clear about what areas can be ruled out. and that we don't have to go back to. so they're doing the right thing, deploying every day, maintaining a high level of quality and driving right through towards the end. >> so, michael, you were going to say, you don't think that this means that those black boxes aren't in that particular area either, right? >> absolutely. i think what we need to do, carol, we need to separate the above-surface search with the plethora of maritime assets used