joe: that was my conversation with matthew boesler --michael mcdonough. the fed decision tomorrow? time,t: it's decision janet yellen is widely expected to raise the rate this week. let's look at the chart making an increasing your certainty in today's numbers don't lie. fed funds futures have made a dramatic shift over the last couple of weeks on the heels of hawkish commentary from different fed officials. you can see them putting odds of rate increases at 100% tomorrow. convincedatchers are -- convinced that stocks have played a role in pushing them to make this move. the dow in the s&p 500, as you know, rallied after the u.s. election and it is supported by u.s. economic data, the white line there, on the upside at the fastest rate in five years. the index has been driven mostly by survey and sentiment-based indicators, soft data, less so by hard data. even so, we have been getting improving numbers on that front, pushing the fed closer to a 2% inflation target. the latest jobs report showed wage growth picking up with average hourly growth registerin

but michael mcdonough, bloomberg intelligence economist, point that out today that to whatever extent is using political capital to get his agenda passed, particularly tax cuts, trends like that don't help. what you missed? a big week for fed speak. charles evans addressed the timing for further tightening, saying he could support to our three rate increases this year. tomorrow, new york fed president william dudley will speak on banking ethics. thursday, janet yellen will talk minneapolisn and fed chair neel kashkari is scheduled to make more comments. contrary was the lone dissenter -- category was the lone dissenter at the fomc meeting. i: i'm not opposed to raising rates when the data forces we are moving towards our domain a target. i'm asking, what is the rush to raise rates? joe: for all things onlated, go to fed the bloomberg. talk.turn to david co. -- david kotok. : david: always a pleasure. nice and cold up here. joe: we can change that. the market love to this rate hike. you agree with the market interpretation of the fed here? david: i don't think the market focused o

this is what michael mcdonough put together. empire state, richmond fed. city fed. iso and the white line which is national. in. strong data coming it is noisy. they are all going up and to the right. they jump around a little bit. you have to like this trend. things are looking pretty good on manufacturing. >> looks good. what'd you miss? the battle over president heating up.et is for more on the major roadblocks the budget may face let's bring in justin. thank you very much for joining us. historically what is the relationship between the fantasy budget the president puts out and the ultimate path of spending that gets legislated. are sayingy people this thing is dead on arrival. that is historically true. president obama proposed budgets and they wouldn't even vote on it. the most important thing to look at is some of the defense spending that he outlines. more than $50 billion in increases. those are areas where he might have some agreement with not only democrats on capitol hill but republicans as well. even if we don't see the historic cats to domestic program