mark: michael mckee, what are fed policymakers looking at right now? we have got growth numbers today that were 2/10 of a percent. what are they going to look at now? mike: as diane noted, it will be revised, and they are saying transitory, so what does the data tell you is going to change was to mark well as diane said, we want to watch inventories and the strength of the dollar to see if this continues to impact american manufacturing and whether oil continues -- in fact, it did not get a mention in here, but they did talk about investment. oil has gone back up. the dollar has gone back down so there is some evidence in here that the second quarter is going to be better. we just don't know how much yet. one of the things they will be watching for is the next federal employment numbers. they do not see any change in the utilizations of labor market resources, which is a long way of saying the jobs report was not that good in the month of march, and that is one of their criteria, continued improvement in the labor market. market: ok, roundtable, standb

not with me is michael mckee not with me is brendan greeley. with me she is such a trooper olivia sterns. olivia: the labor department report is due out. 12 straight months with games with at least 200,000 jobs. 20 years since that last happened. wall street will not be reacting today. the market is closed. after nine years, iran nuclear talks are heading into their final stage. terms of a plan to keep iran from building nuclear weapons. both sides say it is a historic step. >> it is not whether it meets all of the desires of one side at the expense of the other. the test is whether or not it will leave the world safer. olivia: president obama must persuade congress to okay the deal. pres. obama: if we see something suspicious, we will inspect it. with this deal and ron will face more inspections than any other country in the world. if congress kills the deal without offering any reasonable alternatives, the united states will be blamed for the failure of diplomacy. olivia: the deal cuts into iran's bomb making capability. they have until the e

mark: michael mckee, meg mclellan diane swank in chicago. we will continue to follow this story.ors taking a look looking at the data, looking at the language, seeing when there it is that time. let's go to bloomberg chief washington correspondent peter cook. peter, good afternoon. peter: mark, the fed is not explicitly ruling out a rate increase in june, but they are acknowledging the recent weakness. the first interest rate increase, and they are a true picking that weakness partly to transitory factors, so that is something for fed watchers to consider. there is definitely new language on the economy. there was a slowing in the winter months, and the pace of job gains moderated, and the employment rate is steady. indicators show an underutilization of resources was little changed, and they al

erik: that was michael mckee. let us talk about some of the stories that you need to follow in the world of business. there was more economic data out this morning. mike was just talking about inflation expectation. inflation may be picking up. the core cost of living rose 2/10 of a percent in march. that reflects a rod-based increase in risk and medical care and use cars. on a euro basis, prices excluding food and energy rose 1.8%. fed policymakers want to see some inflation before they race and from straight -- interest rates. the officials are worried about raising interest rates to send. -- too soon. one says it is not his preference, but the option is not off the table. boston fed president says that the economic data would need to improve before interest rates can be raised. the fed will wait until at least september before it makes its first move. nasa something you rarely see in washington. president obama lining up with republicans on a bill opposed by many democrats. they agreed on legislation that would

with me to discuss is michael mckee and danny blanch power. -- blanchflower.oes russia have the money to help greece? it has a lot of problems of its own. >> clearly greece is in deep trouble. it is looking for some way out. it is trying to find any cards it can play, but if you simply look at the data, it is 29 percent below what it was in 2008. it has 50% youth unemployment. we are talking about trying to pay back loans it cannot afford. and away what you would do would be to say i am going to try to find any bargaining chip i possibly can to help get out of this hole. it doesn't appear they are going to get out of it. this is just a power play, but at some point something has to give. >> greece saying something like we don't agree with sanctions. do they have any leverage when it comes to sanctions? >> they have quite a bit. that is the card tsipras's is playing. the sanctions expire on july 31. to renew them they need a unanimous vote by eurozone members. greece could lock the sanctions renewal. there is a question of whether turkey will go along. at this

at april dashing to the first quarter mystery, and into the second quarter, retail sales i know michael mckeeeight on this report with this morning at 8:30. olivia: on my agenda, wells fargo due out in just under four minutes from now and different from jpmorgan where we were looking for adjusted her scorner earnings-per-share. -- first-quarter earnings per share. barry, what are you looking for? barry: the key number for jpmorgan is thomas less they are spending on legal costs. olivia: and investment banking bounceback. barry: right. it is starting to recover. but with wells fargo, the biggest mortgage underwriter, it will be interesting to see what their credit standards, if that has changed at all, and what sort of demand for refi's and mortgage. olivia: exactly. jpmorgan boosted its dividend to $.044. tom: use of cash still strong. here is to, our craft team has analyze this the welcome only is front and center for secretary clinton. she is in iowa. the ballet begins. i'm sure there'll be another candidate a week from now. do you get a similarity here to or years ago, or is this something

michael mckee and i will sit down with a china thinking henry paulson.rdelli, on general electric, as they move to become another industrial company of a another time and place. brendan: as you know, they were looking for a bit and found one for now. forecasting will prices is a game for us. luckily, that is not what part -- bart has done. you look at the consequences of different scenarios. the one that worries me, oil below $40 per barrel and you title that "regional instability." what does that mean? bart: the key measures that we are looking for a today at the conference for our to take care and take account of a lot of different outcomes. this is a very different episode in the oil price developments than what we have seen historically and there is the possibility that prices would go down much more substantially. we don't think it is a high probability, but we need to take that into account. brendan: in the case of below $40 per barrel, what are we looking at? region by region, what are we looking at? bart: there are issues the middle east and we h

michael mckee and i will be on bloomberg radio. ♪ " i'm betty liu.d this morning. important numbers to watch out for in 30 minutes. our first read on gdp for the first quarter. by all indications it could be an ugly one. we break it down with jim karen. peter's watcher on his new book. he reveals damaging details about the clintons and their donors. details in a moment. bloomberg makes a move into delivery expanding its new service called buber inc.. we have the competition -- why he thinks it is not such a big deal. here's a look at top stories. baltimore officials this morning say there were only a few violations of the city's on my curfew. police used pepper spray to disperse about 200 protesters shortly after the curfew started last night.

here to make sense is the chairman and cio of cumberland advisors and bloomberg's economic editor michael mckeew does the fed see one thing and facebook, but all the data we are getting see something else? >> the fed is seeing an economy that continues to expand but not a very exciting pace at this point. the real pressure on it was from utilities. homebuilder confidence was up significantly today. so maybe things will get better. in the facebook they did talk about optimism. alix: how do you reconcile a relatively optimistic point of view with a strong dollar hanging over our heads. >> the fed has to deal with this issue of extending the time where they will make the first move and the bias is toward extending because of the dollar but because of the questions in the labor markets are because of something else. if you think about the fed's timing decision, you don't have symmetry. the bias to get the liftoff date is to push it out. now you have bullard warning, rightly so, there are a lot of concerns. the bias in the condition -- in the decision favors waiting if there is any derailing piece o

mike mckee joins me with the details. michaelprobably not going to change anybody's assessment of the fed's rate increases. it's more of a discussion and the issues and assessments are pretty much what you would expect. there were widespread reports of growth in the first quarter partly reflecting the winter weather and labor disputes at the west coast ports. several disciplines noted the dollars --

mike mckee joins me with the details. michael: this is probably not going to change anybody's assessment of the fed's rate increases. it's more of a discussion and the issues and assessments are pretty much what you would expect. there were widespread reports of growth in the first quarter partly reflecting the winter weather and labor disputes at the west coast ports. several disciplines noted the dollars -- the dollar's appreciation was likely to strain growth for a time. participants also judged the underutilization of labor resources continuing to diminish. part of the mandate was being met but the thing everyone wants to know is what is going to convince them that inflation is going to be rising toward their target? participants expressed a range of views about how they would assess the outlook for inflation and when they might deem it appropriate to begin removing policy accommodation. there were no simple criteria for such a judgment. further improvement to the labor market was one possibility. and a leveling out of the fo