tom: michael mckee later today with alan greenspan.y important with the jumble of policy out there. heilemann on "with all due respect." on with the next important debate. the presidential debate. this is bloomberg. ♪ hey how's it going, hotcakes? hotcakes. this place has hotcakes. so why aren't they selling like hotcakes? with comcast business internet and wifi pro, they could be. just add a customized message to your wifi pro splash page and you'll reach your customers where their eyes are already - on their devices. order up. it's more than just wifi, it can help grow your business. you don't see that every day. introducing wifi pro, wifi that helps grow your business. comcast business. built for business. of ther those of you world audience, there is a baseball game to the left of lexington avenue -- the empire state building, giants of oakland. the brooklyn giants will play the new york mets tonight. newre looking forward to york mets baseball from a beautiful new york city. thor -- i can't believe i am talking about the mets. i a

.: i am michael mckee in new york.to talk about last night's political debate in las vegas. megan murphy is still there. i am amazed that you are still functioning. that was something to talk about this morning. trump, a major party candidate, saying he might not accept the results of the election. that is the headline today. megan: certainly, no question. that was the moment that everyone was waiting for, to see what he would say to the theme he has built up the past 10 days -- this is a rigged election and calling into question the legitimacy of the electoral progress. he said he would keep us in suspense and he didn't want to comment on where he would be on this until he actually saw the results. it's something that worries people. it's something that analysts and hillary clinton herself said it was horrifying, to think that a we have told say see. michael m.: it seems like donald trump is in his own little island on this. mike pence and even his campaign manager tried to walk back that comment afterwards. megan: he

francine: michael mckee.ext, it is surveillance with tom mckeen -- with tom keene. ♪ ♪ francine: deutsche bank on the defense. the lender says it plans 1000 job cuts as they head to the u.s. for talks with the doj. pulling the brexit trigger. the british prime ministers says she will invoke article 50 during the first quarter of 2016. the megamerger. henderson global investors and janus capital will merge to create an investment giant. surveillance.erg i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene a

michael mckee, those looking at european bonds.omberg. ♪ ♪ vonnie: you are watching "bloomberg markets." at&t said to be pushing time warner takeover deals by monday because the likes of google or apple could come in and make a bid. stock is down further, donna the low of the day 3.5 percent lower practically at the lowest of the day at least. that deal being pushed for by monday. time for our battle of the chart and we are looking at the most telling charts of the day and what they mean for investors. mark barton and kicking things off, michael mckee. michael: we will talk about portugal because later today the toronto based ratings industry, one of the four big ones in europe is going to announce the latest ratings for portugal and the question is will they keep their investment grade rating? if they lose it they have already -- if they have already been rated junk they are not eligible for qe purchases, that means borrowing cost goes up in their banks have trouble getting loans from the ecb. it is a big deal and this announcemen

that was janus capital bill gross with tom keene and michael mckee.bill gross and we will talk with alan krueger here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ alix: this is bloomberg . coming up black rock cio of global fixed income rick rieder. ♪ jonathan: from new york city this is bloomberg and here is the state of the markets. higher, the ftse stage stronger. initially the knee-jerk reaction was yields rolling over a touch. they are now unchanged. the dollar was stronger going edge of the reports and a touch softer coming out, but no drama. dollar-yen showing a little bit of strength. the cable rate, the move of the last 24 hours as we mapped the flash trip -- flash crash. another story i want to get through quickly is lloyd, the u.k. government will resume selling taken this bank within the united kingdom. they have a circa 9.1% holding in the reticular bank. stock price investors resume selling as well. david: we are back with alan krueger of princeton who served as a chairman of president obama's council of economic advisers. we heard it called

also joining us is michael mckee. let me start with you, krishna. better than it was. is it good news are not so good? krishna: anything north of 2% is good. question is, doesn't answer all the questions that i needed answers for? is the consumer weakening or not, that is the key in terms of sustainability of the current growth trend. that question did not get answered. inventories and exports were up and those were the primary drivers. whether the consumer is going to continue to grow their spending at the pace that they have been historically, i think that needs to be answered. jonathan: let's talk about what picked up and what is going to last. what picked up his net exports. there is a soybean story i want you to break down. what softened was the consumer. michael: that is the problem with this report, it is not as good under the hood as it looks on the top line. we saw exports rise and according to the commerce department, a big rise in soybean exports. that probably will not be sustained. earlier in the year we saw the dollar weakened and that

fisher -- fischer. >> still with us is michael mckee. chael, those questions were interesting, perhaps more so than the rest of the speech. one of the things he is pressing is that we are close to 2%. michael: close enough for the fed to think that they are going to get there. remember, we will see oil prices rising throughout the year. it should have an effect on overall inflation with wages rising a bit. there's reason to think that they will get there. the question that arose in this context was about overshooting and running the economy hot. that.k a middle ground on you could run it a little hot. by that he meant -- let the unemployment rate fall farther a 10th orxpected by two. he said that until you see inflation starting to rise, you have waited too long. he didn't endorse -- he didn't come against it, but said he had to be careful in how you think about that. >> on the inflation side of things, perhaps an argument for changing the inflation target. something that he said he would be reluctant to do. whisperings that maybe that sh

. >> very quickly we are going to be talking with michael mckee at the boston fed stage. their.ellen set to speak fede heard enough from the recently to conclude that it is highly probable that federal rate interest rates in december, barring major surprises and academic data -- surprises in economic data -- simply they reinforce the previous messages. mentioned in a recent statement september 21. >> thank you very much. coming up, republican nominee mike pence is telling everyone to stay tuned. >> he's saying we will get more evidence backing trump against his female accusers. we will break it down. this is bloomberg markets. david: we will bring back tony from pimco. with --speaking earlier newly money market rules. that,s the importance of what it means that these rules have changed. >> it was a windfall in terms of higher interest rates and the yield curve. moved from about 61 basis points to about 90 basis points. about $1 trillion flowed out of money market funds. wringing the total down to about half trillion dollars. some money went into banks and deposits. onre w

the ground is going to michael mckee, but only because i happen to think this chart is amazing and marksaid he is all right with the winners. mark: i vote for michael. >> you are both very gracious. vonnie: coming up, the federal reserve vice chair sally fisher speaking at the economic club of new york. vonnie: it is noon in new york. 5:00 p.m. in london and midnight in hong kong. >> welcome to bloomberg markets. david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, we are on this hour. we are watching bank of america reports third quarter warnings over 7% on bond trading and cost cuts. u.s. factory production rises for a third time in four months. the industry is recovering from past weaknesses. vice chairerve stanley fisher will address the economic club of new york. first, capping the trading day, abigail joins us. >> it has been the same all day and we have had the u.s. averages, the dow, s&p 500, and nasdaq, little changed from friday's close. we have had a little fluctuation from green and red. it appears

michael mckee in new york. "surveillance those quote is up next.ll be joining me we will be talking about weakness iran and some of the investigations -- weakness in rand and political turmoil of south africa. ♪ francine: the uk prime minister plans no favorites for the city , the poundmid brexit falls to its lowest level since 1985. the cleveland fed president said the economy is right for a rate hike next month despite its proximity to the u.s. election. economy,ica's ailing we speak to the finance minister as the risk of a downgrade and political turmoil way on the country. this is

philadelphia fed president had never given a television interview before this week in dublin with michael mckeediscussed a fed decision and division. mike: three dissents at the last meeting, highly unusual for the fed. how divided is this policymaking group? >> i think people do have different perspectives on the pace of normalization. i tend to be in the camp of normalizing sooner rather than later. i would not say there is great dissent other than the speed at which we move accommodation. but nobody thinks we should do that quickly. it will be a shallow path. mike: how fast, how far? what's not clear. that is a function of how the economy responds as we start to remove accommodations. one of the dissenters said he is worried about bubbles developing in financial markets. other members have suggested the same. do you see monetary policy distorting financial markets? >> i think there is the potential for bubbles, particularly something we watch in the third district, commercial real estate. and we are watching across the country. the other thing i worry about is the distortive effect we are ha

michael mckee and steve, thank you for joining us today.ng up, samsung is cutting its profit forecast. how devastating as the recall? weeks for that next. ♪ -- we explore that next. ♪ david: let's head live to pier 3 for the bloomberg technology update. giving information about after itrevenue stopped production of the note 7 yesterday. cory johnson joins us now. carol: -- cory: that the cost of be substantial. in terms of sales that the coste substantial. in terms of sales, a 4% decline. in terms of profit, a 33% reduction. that tells us how they are dealing with this internally. cost are substantial buying up around the world and writing up the inventory of all the stuff they have bought to build the phones. they have to buy a list of them. on thathuge margins particular phone. why do they not scrap the? coleman it seems that was their thought. we do not know what the problem is. graphics.ith fancy there is a positive and negative side of a battery in between is a barrier. to make the phone thinner. one trick is to reduce the size of the

alix: it raises the question of central bank independence, and for that, michael mckee joins us . in the u.k., we hear from trump coming down on janet yellen. michael: it has risen along with the populism that has taken hold because the central banks have been the only people making any kind of policy. mark carney went out on a limb and said things would be terrible after brexit, so the people in the leave camp have been shooting back saying, you were wrong so far and perhaps you should not stay long. theresa may raised questions when she went to the party conference and said that monetary policy may not be helping anymore. people started asking the question, where does carney go from here? jonathan: the question i would be asking is, isn't it ironic that these politicians who were so reluctant to do anything on the fiscal side, fueled monetary activism, or the same politicians that now complain about it. there is an easy way to get out of this. the autumn statement, do something on the fiscal side and i will pull back. michael: which is what all the central bankers have been sayi

about the going ons this weekend. .e should eric holder earlier here is the extremely confident michael mckeeng in .he washington journal it goes back to the 12th century when henry the second asked, who will rid me of this troublesome priest? the current justice department will not permit a grand jury to hear evidence in this case. and because only a grand jury can constitutionally bring charges, that means no charges will be brought. >> it just goes to the unprecedented nature of this whole e-mail inquiry and director james comey's approach to it. latest letter, it is all unprecedented territory. tom: however is the director's job? said, off with his head. how it risk is he? >> he is under immense pressure. the fact is he is an employee of the obama administration. there is just no way they will fire him, obviously, because of how that would look. his job is safe, but his position is not. he is under intense pressure to say more in the days ahead. francine: has this actually be set to trump campaign? or, because voters knew that clinton was flawed, it will not make much difference? >> that

michael mckee, much more on bloomberg surveillance this morning.ht, five clock p.m., -- 5:00 p.m., they will be talking about trump. ♪ >> german markets are closed. today the german unity today, of to mark the anniversary the unification. but can germany remain unified hen it comes to dealing with deutsche bank? we heard from the vice hancellor criticizing deutsche bank for building its business. probably one of the biggest we look at the german elections next year. e'll have plenty more on deutsche bank. tom keane is in new york. taylor? >> voters in columbia raised the country could fall back into a war with marxist rebels. columbians released a cease fan to end the war. scoffed at the fact that eaders would get lenient treatment. colombia's president plans new negotiation and says a cease will stay in effect. democratic presidential candidate hillary clinton takes fargo today. she'll call for limits on forced and ration clauses contracts that make it tough for workers and consumers to sue companies. fargo invoked those to ses when customers trie

tom: michael mckee, thank you so much. a debate tonight at 8:30, bloomberg television and radio.ew monetary policy committee in india has unanimously agreed to cut interest rates. cut india'srs benchmark rate from six and a half percent to six and a quarter percent. you are looking at live pictures . in afghanistan, the taliban has run over areas and the u.s. is going to send forces. the taliban captured the cities 10 tro square -- central square. according to turkish tv, almost 13,000 police officers have been suspended as part of an investigation into those suspected of backing a muslim cleric gulen. global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. riggs.ylor this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. we begin our coverage for the international monetary fund meetings. what is so wonderful now is to speak to the finance minister of south africa, pravin gordhan is .rom south africa wonderful to have you with us. i want to bring up a chart of the gross domestic product, the real economy of your south africa, and it is a wonderful

michael mckee joining us.ing with us; the vice presidential nominees -- emma: the vice presidential nominees square off at longwood university in virginia. you can watch the vice presidential debate here on bloomberg television. our coverage begins at 8:30 p.m. eastern time. hurricane matthew has moved a short with winds up to 135 miles per hour. people their live in poorly pulte homes. there live in poorly built homes. santos has sent his negotiating team back to cuba to restart talks. -- juan man well santos. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm emma chandra. this is bloomberg. alix: in the u.s., we have futures modestly higher. at one point overnight committee s&p futures were up by six points. you do have a stronger dollar. the case for a rate hike sooner rather than later. do it now. hike less down the road. he sees the fed reaching inflation and employment targets. darden with better earnings. a differentme story, downgraded over a

in more, we will bring michael mckee join us from boston. it's great to have you with us. begin with you. regional fed presidents are looser with their tongues. this speaks to the market story. is he right to acknowledge that? normally the fed doesn't talk about politics at all. belief, theyopular have raised then cut rates shortly before elections. a week before an election, they've never done anything. the thing to keep in mind is the november meeting does not have a press conference. there is a natural bias against it. we have never had an election like this where the possibility of a market reaction is so severe the fed would say we might want to wait. were not sure what's going to happen. >> i think november is off the table. the december hike is in the cards. i think there is a 100% probability of a hike in december. the only chance they don't hike in december is if something significant the rails them. the markets are pricing in 70% in december. there flip that around, is a 30% chance of something bad happening between now and december 14. david: what might happen?

i did this for michael mckee. does the green line get done by that redline? adjust. a lot of debates yesterday. different houses with this call, that call. you are not in the parlor game. when does it adjust? in our opinion, it should adjust rather quickly. we agree with the red line. we second that stance. if we look at fake communication, in my opinion, it is fairly consistent. the only part of fake communication does not add up is the dot plot. in my opinion, the dot plot makes sense at the zero lower bound for a prolonged time. the fed needed to provide some very long-term guidance of where policy would be down the road. but now that we have had liftoff -- now that we're back into more conventional monetary policy, so to speak, i think the dot plot is more confusing. confusing than other things. how can we justify the dot plot and then the statement from the latest meeting, where we talked about monetary policy being somewhat accommodative? how is somewhat accommodative squared with a dot plot that implies more than 200 basis point of interest rate hikes?

alix: good to see you, michael mckee. we will have an all-star lineup on jobs friday.avid: it is for the public. we have three months to go. jonathan: this is how things are shaping up as we kick off a new quarter. equities down. positive on the ftse in london. a weak pound the dominant story in the fx market. the coverage continues next with bloomberg markets. ♪ hii'm here to tell homeowners that are sixty-two and older about a great way to live a better retirement... it's called a reverse mortgage. call right now to receive your free dvd and booklet with no obligation. it answers questions like... how a reverse mortgage works, how much you qualify for, the ways to receive your money... and more. plus, when you call now, you'll get this magnifier with led light absolutely free! when you call the experts at one reverse mortgage today, you'll learn the benefits of a government-insured reverse mortgage. it will eliminate your monthly mortgage payments and give you tax-free cash from the equity in your home and here's the best part... you still own your home. take control

vonnie: michael mckee, that was a wonderful interview and thank you for that and thanks to the u.s. entative, michael frohman. some of theg up, big tech names report after the close today. we will drill down the revenue streams today. the numbers don't lie. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: you are watching bloomberg markets. latest it's time for our business flash. barclays wanted to billion into itsp investigation on its mortgage securities. barclays wants to whittle down the payments. they want to fight the doj in court. the federal communions -- wantsications commission new rules for broadband providers. cost a companyd residual ad sales. the numbers to buy previously owned u.s. homes went up. it keeps prices high. that is your bloomberg business flash up date. google has spent years making a case to wall street that its investment in not advertising businesses will eventually pay off. alphabet posted results that suggests it's starting to happen and we check out alphabet in the numbers don't lie. moneymaking units are tied to advertisers and i still going strong. it $2.2mped 33%, bill

and politics and economics editor michael mckee is with us in new york. megan, you know every time we have a new debate the next morning we try to find the substance and focus on the policies. when we put together that video clip, we had a hard time doing this. what was the debate about? megan: this was nasty, this was ugly, this was personal. there were times in the hall last night where people watching were gasping for breath at some of the comments that were coming out. since thed this ever release last friday night of the video, the recording of donald trump making these sexually aggressive, lewd comments about then filtered over. we saw this mastiff archer of senior republican figures, and senior democrat -- we saw this of seniorparture republican figures. they were going to go into bill clinton's history with women. we expected that. i do not think we appreciated how much it was. in terms of donald trump, you cannot think there were that many viewers who tuned in last night and saw this as a positive, appealing message in terms of winning over voter

--: michael mckee will have mike: donald trump said we are losing our manufacturing base and not makinging he more. from 1919, we are making as much as we ever do -- peter: we've lost the 70,000 factories. mike: we are using fewer people to do it because companies are using more robots. peter: they have 20% of their workforce -- mike: sounds like the debate last night. we are still making stuff in this country. we are doing it with fewer people. much of that has to do with automation as opposed to jobs moving overseas. peter: that's not what they think in fort wayne and scranton. i've been all over the rust belt. the data is clear and you can take the jobs but germany has 20% of their workforce and manufacturing, japan has 17% and we have, what -- 8%. gave away the score in bad trade deals and we have to stop this defeatism. we have to get to 3.5% growth. if donald trump can bring back the jobs, how does he do it if the jobs are going away to robots? peter: japan and germany are the highest robot countries in the world and they each have 20% of their -- this is defeatism. where a white

tom: his minutia -- i have experienced this with the chairman before -- when michael mckee and i speake any money like greenspan on board, do they? maybe bullard, maybe? detail, theg at the store near the detail -- no, i think you are probably right. -- the extraordinary detail -- no, i think you are probably right. tom: he owns the phrase "measured." he wanted gradual vectors of higher interest rate. does he regret measured? sebastian: he should, but he does not. he did not say that the gradual tightening in 2004, 2005, his last two years, was a mistake. i show in the book that if you tell people on wall street the cost of r.o.e. on the short end will rise in a measured way, very slowly, they are going to borrow more short and more long, and the carry trade will go up. tom: we will come back. 's new effort,aby "the man who knew." francine: later today on bloomberg tv, michael dell joint erik schatzker from the world conference in austin, texas. this is bloomberg. ♪ francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua and london. tom keene is in new york. let's get to the "

radio -- a conversation with torch public and sent to new -- with george poppa consented to -- michael mckeeat later. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: good morning, everyone. guy johnson in london. i am tom keene in new york. let's squeeze in a discussion with baroness bowles here. what is the difference between janet yellen's shop and carney's shop. he is dealing with a discrete shock. nowe: i think the question is what is the longer run outlook for the british economy. tom: guy johnson, the british love that idea of the medium-term as well. help us out with the baroness on the bank of england. >> one of the big questions is that governor carney will be sticking around. do you think he should stick around and continue to do the job he is doing at the moment. do you think he has the support of the treasury, and what do you think monetary policy needs to deliver for the british economy? think: first of all, i mark is intending to hang around. when he originally had a shorter , as hisht year term request for governor. i am hearing that he wouldn't mind if it was a years or another term, because it wa

now back to michael mckee with bloomberg radio in new york. steel. thank you. david: joining us now is a member of bloomberg intelligence here we just heard from christine lagarde. she said she was a lawyer, and she basically called on deutsche bank to settle. she said, as a lawyer, a bad settlement is better than a good trial. >> absolutely. deutsche bank is a systemically important institution, and the earlier that we reach some kind of certainty on this, the better . because the way we look at it is through the prism of financial conditions. so far, we have not seen much of a deterioration because of that, but if we see a prolonged duration in financial conditions, that would be damaging to economic growth. in a conference yesterday and said, ok, three options, brexit, the fed, elections. what is the biggest risk questionnaire no one raised their hand on brexit or the fed. they all raised it on the u.s. election. is that at the heart of the next 6% weeks, the biggest uncertainty you see in the global economy -- over the next six or seven we