thank you to michael mckee and my cohost tom keene. markets continues next with a look at facebook earnings after the bell. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ scarlet: 3:00 p.m. in new york, 12:00 team in san francisco, and 8:00 p.m. in london. welcome to "bloomberg markets." julia: we are live in bloomberg world headquarters in new york. here are the top stories we are covering. in markets, investors have their sights set on two words from the fed's decision -- relatively soon. that is the guidance on when it plans to begin unwinding the balance sheet. holded also decided to rates steady, sending the u.s. dollar to a 14-month low following the statement. in politics, senate republicans bracing for a chaotic week of voting, set to vote on mitch mcconnell's proposal for a straight repeal of obamacare this hour. speaking of chaos, taper to the rescue. to public is planning to roll out a melted cheese dish to boost sales. it has had a recent food safety crisis. one hour from the close of trading. let's check markets. julie: there was an

we will look across the nation with michael mckee. the road ahead for electric cars. we will tell you about a new forecast from bloomberg's new energy finance. we are halfway into the thursday trading day. abigail doolittle is with us now with the latest. >> pretty clearly the sellers are in control. clearly the nasdaq is down the most. being dragged down the most by the health care sector. top point drags on the nasdaq are in the technology space. another top point dragged as the company fails to receive the eye ihs reward on safety concerns. tesla is having its worst two days since february of last year. let's hop into the bloomberg and look at the technical. the stock has more than doubled and see election. what we have going on here healthy consolidation. we have very solid support here despite the fact that the up print has broken. not blue line represents just near-term support, but longer-term support. the long-term outlook is bullish. one reason that vonnie was mentioning work from bloomberg finance we have a chart that shows electric vehicle expectations. yel

michael mckee in washington.and answers to piercing questions from representatives of the house. mysteries of inflation and disinflation, bruce kasman will join us. really interesting on reflation. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live from new york. i am tom keene. guy johnson beleaguered by real wage decline. this is a big deal. and the united kingdom, wages are going down. guy: what it is doing is borrowing. how long can that credit impulses last and what does the picture really look like? tom: we need an update on washington before we go does some really. here is taylor riggs for taylor: donald trump jr. said he never told his father about a meeting with what would be a government lawyer with damaging information on hillary clinton. he attacked the media handling of the story. >> i think it is a little bit of ridiculous and people are getting it. the media has done themselves a disservice i picking size and and pushed people -- sides have pushed people to think about it. said "hee probably probably would have

michael mckee will be in that lockup. let's check in on the first word news this afternoon. mark crumpton is here with that. trump is banning transgender people from serving in the military. on twitter the president said the military must he focused on victory, and quote, cannot be burdened -- cannot be with the enormous medical costs and disruption the trans-genders in the military would entail. --june, a plan was allowed stevemajority whip scalise has been released from a washington hospital more than a month after being shot during that congressional baseball practice. underwentrepublican multiple surgeries during his stay. he has suffered fractured bones and internal organ damage. hodgkinson died after a shootout with police. dr. say scalise has made great progress. philip hammond says the u.k. wants discussions with the european union over transitional arrangements to start as soon as september. for that to happen, u.k. and the other 27 eu governments must pledge that they have made quote, sufficient progress on issues including rights for citizens, ireland's borders, a

right now we go to our michael mckee. i have interviewed randal quarles any number of times. this is a new job. explain to our global audience how not only is he a governor, but a vice-chairman. i thought stan fischer was the vice-chairman. >> stan fischer is the vice-chairman of the federal reserve. this is a new position created in the 2008 dodd frank rule. the job was never filled under president obama, so he is the first to have the formal title. tarullo, leaving the fed in march. tom: we have got a photograph of a younger randal quarles standing with secretary snow, who i believe was u of republican persuasion. will democrats push back? >> there does not seem to be a lot the reason why he would not be like. he is an establishment republican who worked in the administrations of both george bush's. -- at oneat you ar point, he worked as the secretary for finance. he has a broad experience as a republican, but he does believe in a lighter touch on regulation, suggesting he is from the establishment wing, not going to be

david: michael mckee joining me from washington, d.c., president donald trump will meet with the prime minister of lebanon to hold a joint news conference. we expect the president will answer questions about health care. we will bring you those comments as soon as we can. this is bloomberg. ♪ david: this is "bloomberg markets: the trump economy." it is a crucial day for health care on capitol hill. the procedural vote will take place later this afternoon. joining us with more is kevin cirilli. to flag something from an ohio news figure senator portman expected to vote to proceed the .ealth care debate c senator mccain is back in washington. watching for over these next couple of hours as we head to the procedural vote? kevin: i texted several sources within the last couple of now, the- right working assumption for republicans as they do have enough votes on that motion to proceed. vice president mike pence has also arrived here on capitol hill. he will be presiding over the boat and casey is needed to cast the tie-breaking vote -- over t

michael mckee outside u.s. treasury department in washington, d.c. i want to bring in ambassador michael froman into the conversation. obama's trade representative from 2013-2017. let me ask you how this dialogue is different -- i saw you in beijing. how were the contours of the structures of this dialogue different from that? there's a lot of similarity and a lot of continuity in terms of the issues being talked about. coming out of mar-a-lago, the trump admin section and china agreed to a 100 day plan. they came out with some announcements, most of which were things that had already been agreed to. hopefully the chinese will follow through on those deadlines. we will see if those issues resolved. will this dialogue get to the heart of the issues in the bilateral and more general economic relationship? things like overcapacity in steel and aluminum muff forced aluminum, transfer -- forced technology transfer. industrial overcapacity was something you talked about when you are in the cabinet. jack lew was keen to talk about it as well. we saw this wee

emily: bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent michael mckee joins us from the treasury department in washington. so tell us what happened, how did the day end like this? michael: we don't know exactly how the day ended. we believe the talks are over by the treasury department isn't saying anything for right now. as you mentioned, the news conferences were cancelled shortly after the meetings began. we don't know to take that as a sign of progress or a lack of progress because there were the tense comments at the opening ceremony, but no indication that the talks would fail and we do believe they lasted until the middle of the afternoon. the u.s. would like to see the trade deficit with china come down. they're focused on much of the old economy. they would like to see steel dealt in open capacity and the china would like to see u.s. tech companies sell them more stuff that the u.s. government prevents that. so they are trying to negotiate that as part of a deal. tech a big part of these talks, but we don't know where they went with them yet? emily: mike, i imagine the r

joining us, michael mckee. what are you looking at? michael m.: personal consumption. quarter. consumers came back. the other thing i was going to look at was business investment. non-residential fixed investment up 5.2%. let me pull up this chart. we have a chart of business fixed investment. this has not updated yet, but you can see, in the chart, how business fixed investment, business spending, had been going up. a little bit in the second quarter, because we are not getting anywhere in washington. business may be waiting to see what happens with taxes. alix: part of that is the big gains in energy, will energy propel gains going forward. this sets us up for potential disappointment in the back half of the year? michael m.: you have energy prices rising, the dollar weaker, which helps export in the u.s.. 4%.aw exports rise the net exports number falls. that contributes to gdp. with the dollar getting weaker, it helps on the trade front but pushes oil prices higher. we see oil prices near $50. that could ring people back into the market and increase drilling -- that

any secondhe details now from michael mckee at the fed. there, letore we go me remind everyone, this is unusual, a friday. this will give congressmen and women in a couple of extra days to parse. the report is the look at the financial and economic conditions over the past half year, normally released when the humphrey hawkins testimony is put out, largely ignored by the market, media, and members of congress. they decided to put it out early so that more people could read it. gradual growth, gradually tightening labor markets. until recently, gradually increasing inflation. the fed says that will resume. they find equities a bit stretched as investor risk appetite grows but don't see evidence of increased leverage that would suggest there any bubbles forming, at least dangerously so. more interestingly, detailed topics, low productivity growth, corporate bond market liquidity and monetary policy rules. the fed does not have a good answer for war productivity has been so low which they say suggests the reason we are seem tepid wage gains.

thank you, michael mckee on capitol hill and senator ben cardin.'s have a look at where european equities are trading right now. ,ith close just minutes away the stoxx 600 rebounding after losing more than 1% in yesterday's session. tech stocks outperforming 1.9%. to. lied most industry groups gaining as you can see from the imap. seeing a bit of a weaker euro today. that inverse relationship between eurozone stocks and the euro is back for the first time since early may. that 60 day correlation turning negative again. what will the stronger euro mean for europe's exporters? what will it mean for mario draghi if he says anything about it at all at the ecb's decision tomorrow? this is the bloomberg euro index. highesteally at the since about august 2015. there is a cross we normally don't look at. we have been talking about u.s. and china trade. what about european and chinese trade? to europe have increased. when will europe push back? julie: we're looking at games and records for the major averages. records for both the s&p 500 and the nasdaq. loo

julie: michael mckee, thank you so much.on the trade negotiations, the former ambassador to china, gary locke, .oins us now live from seattle ambassador, thank you for joining us. we appreciate it. when we look at this ongoing a lot between the u.s. and china, what do you think is the most to achieve out of these trade talks today? ambassador locke: it is really important that the u.s. stake out its position in terms of specific types of products or services or markets that are now closed to u.s. companies and how they need to be opened up. the u.s. really needs to press china for a timetable and a commitment, a very measurable commitment, to opening up so many sectors of the chinese economy that are now closed to u.s. participation. china is america's number one export destination outside of canada and mexico, and those exports and the two-way trade between china and the united states support and create millions of jobs in america and in china. more we can sell our made in the usa goods and services to china, the more jobs

michael mckee. coming up, the best possible outcome for brexit.ll discuss our investors approach to start funding in the u.k. and across the european region. this is bloomberg. ♪ alisa: you are watching "bloomberg technology." let's start with a check of your first word news. world leaders are arriving in hamburg, germany ahead of the g-20 summit. canada's justin trudeau, australia's prime minister malcolm turnbull, and british prime minister theresa may all touchdown today. ve president trump and japan's shinzo abe angela merkel will play host in her hometown. in the u.s., the lockdown of the illinois state capitol building after a woman threw a powdery substance into the governor's office has been lifted. it delayed the schedule vote by the house on measures to override the governor's veto of budget bills the votes today are the last step in enacting the state budget for the first time in three years. democratic attorneys general in washington, d.c., have mobilized against education secretary betsy devos's decision to suspend student loans borro

thank you michael mckee. , coming up, the best possible outcome for brexit. discuss our investors approach to start up funding in the u.k. and across the european region. this is bloomberg. ♪ so we need tablets installed... with the menu app ready to roll. in 12 weeks. yeah. ♪ ♪ the world of fast food is being changed by faster networks. ♪ ♪ data, applications, customer experience. ♪ ♪ which is why comcast business delivers consistent network performance and speed across all your locations. fast connections everywhere. that's how you outmaneuver. so new touch screens... and biometrics. in 574 branches. all done by... yesterday. ♪ ♪ banks aren't just undergoing a face lift. they're undergoing a transformation. a data fueled, security driven shift in applications and customer experience. which is why comcast business delivers consistent network performance and speed across all your locations. hello, mr. deets. every branch running like headquarters. that's how you outmaneuver. kong, 1:29 p.m. in sydney. have endorsede.u. a preliminary free trade pact -- a rejec

vonnie: michael mckee, thank you. we will return to you a little later on. the chairman is speaking at this minute. >> i now recognize myself for three minutes to give an opening statement. since we last convened to take chair yellen's testimony on minute trade policy come been encouraging economic headlines. confidence is up and headline unemployment remains low, as does inflation. the headline on up limit rate still rests too much on incredibly low labor participation rate and regrettably high disability payment participation rate. paychecks and savings for working americans still have considerable room to grow after eight years of the stationary test distortionary economic policy under the previous administration. on the physical front, help is on the way. house republicans have passed the american health care act to lift the burden of obamacare from our economy and the financial choice act to end bank bailouts and in recent trillions dollars -- release trillions of dollars waiting on the economic sidelines because of dodd-frank the house will vote on a m

concern for the president kevin cirilli on capitol hill and her national economics correspondent michael mckeefuture checks of the headlines with mark crumpton. >> the central round of brexit talk began today in brussels. david davis is urging negotiators to push for progress on the rights of citizens living in each other's nations. it's important we make good progress and identify the differences we can do with them. and now it is time to get down to work and make this a successful negotiation. >> the eu says citizens rights is one of three issues where there must be progress be more it will assess future ties with the u.k.. american businesses will be up at the bring in an extra 15,000 seasonal farmworkers in fiscal 2017. the only companies who can get the visas would be those who it would suffer irreparable harm. a record number of civilians were killed during the first six months of this year. that is according to a u.n. report released earlier. the high commissioner for human rights call the deaths of more than 1600 people horrifying and said the numbers can never fully convey the sheer h

michael mckee reporting from cambridge.aying whether jeffs comments were trading his position. this could be another instance of trading his position. find out why something german corbyn's days as prime minister are number -- find out why theresaorbyn thinks may's days as prime minister are numbered. be meetingrump will with leaders to talk about north korea. outside, protesters. we will bring you the latest. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ julia: what did you miss? look at this. they thought they were home. jeremy corbyn will meet the chief eu brags that negotiator next week. he stands ready for a snap election that could make him prime minister. bloomberg spoke to him earlier today and asked if he thinks he will be prime minister. listen in. >> we did very well in the election. we did not win the majority of seats, but we put forward a large number of votes and a credible economic alternative to this government. this government does not have a majority. it's done a very strange deal and it doesn't look to me to be ve

international economics and policy correspondent michael mckee mckee has been covering the story.m treasury. this dialogue is usually a highly choreographed event. have we ever seen a situation where there is criticism at the start to open the proceedings? >> you sometimes see sharp rhetoric with two sides far apart. what is interesting is coming after the buddy buddy relationship that donald trump and president paying -- ping displayed. they set up a 100 day action plan. they set up this meeting. not -- this is quite a smooth as in florida. china had produced more steel than ever before. take a listen to treasury secretary. and frank have open conversations about balanced relationships that provide a level playing field and we will discuss economic and financial policies that will generate healthy and sustainable growth in our countries and globally. down theeans bringing chinese trade deficit, which shrank but is growing again in 2017. toare today's talks designed be part of an ongoing dialogue or do they hope to come out with actual increased goals met or policy directives? >>

authing us is stephen and michael mckee, joining us from washington. mike, let's strip it back. l: you will hear what you thed in june, except for part about raising interest rates. the fed will be on hold, because if they did they will have to explain why they move when inflation is moving lower. if you look at this chart i brought along, by any measure, inflation has followed in recent months. that does not give them much of a case for a rate rise without a news conference. janet yellen could not explain that. chartave my own inflation . take a look at the bloomberg here. the white line is the core sticky cpi, and that has been cpi,g, versus the median which is on par with what we have seen. how do explain the random inflation divergences? michael: it depends on what you are measuring. out theseng cpi cuts levels, the other one cuts out energy and food. there is some sticky inflation in some areas, but we have seen inflation fall far beyond just oil and food recently. the fed has a dilemma. it is a little more widespread than the one offs that janet yellen has been talking abou

jonathan: michael mckee, thank you.s about one hour and four minutes away from the cash open. futures are positive. almost it flat on the dow. from new york, you're watching bloomberg tv. ♪ jonathan: from new york city to our viewers worldwide coming or watching "bloomberg daybreak." action.ok to the market the dow up by 0.1 2% on the s&p 500 . in the bond market, on to the bid yesterday. we are higher by a single basis point. r u.s. 10 year yield. yesterday was significant dollar weakness, but today is marginal dollar strength. the cable rate is pretty much one pointat one poin 1.3037. the previous number of revised -2.8. building permits with a decent upside surprise at seven point or percent -- 7.4% for the print and estimate was 2.8%. housing starts positive. hsbc global equity strategist is with us. walk us what you can see on your dashboard in terms of this economy. ben: people are underestimating a little bit the strength we are seeing coming through. when you look at that acceleration globally, that is the third

scarlet: in a brave new world, michael mckee.ill get inside and reaction to the jobs report from that hyman, the chairman that ever core isi. we have some breaking news right now about a rare disease pharmaceutical maker. the company says it is under investigation by the u.s. department of health and human services -- actually, the agency is saying this in a letter thursday responding to a public records request. it has an ongoing investigation into alexion. it did not say what the investigation was about or if other agencies were involved. investors are punishing the stock, down almost 4%. we will keep you posted on that. to the bond turn markets, where the yield on the german bond is hitting the highest level since january of 2016. we demand for french debt. the selloff today, shall we say. take a look at the bloomberg. i am showing you the breakout of levels we have seen in 2017. 56 basis points, the yield on the german 10-year. not only week concerning the auction this morning but we also have the european central bank minute

tom: the employment of population ratio, michael mckee, is way down from 2000.l: we do have slack, the question is how much? it is not a question of how many people are available. we have rough ideas of who is not in a labor force. can be enticed to go back to work? there are, going back to school, going on disability. that is what the fed has to try to figure out. tom: michael mckee, looking forward to your 8:30 report. carl riccadonna, thank you as always. i will steal the employment to population ratio. julia coronado, thank you so much. continuing on radio. really appreciate dr. coronado's perspective this morning. francine, thank you for taking my vacation days. francine: i am on assignment on the beach in italy. [laughter] tom: looking at italian banks. she will be reading about italian banks. later today, 8:30, william gross after the jobs' report. stay with us this morning, including in hamburg, germany. this is bloomberg. ♪ whoooo. you're searching for something. like the perfect deal... ...on the perfect hotel. so wouldn't it be perfect if there was a

joining us now is michael mckee.nd that is vladimir putin and president trump. that is going to get a lot of focus. the two have been in a row romance nine since donald trump is that elected. president has been very forceful in condemning some of russia's actions. the u.s. has stayed with sanctions. the economy in russia taking another downturn because oil prices are falling. the recipe is therefore a really tense and -- is there for a really tense and interesting meeting. we are not sure if they will sit down for a lengthy one-on-one meeting or if the president will pull him aside during the regular conference. david: there is not really an agenda for the present. what would be a win for president trump coming out of this? michael: cannot make any mistakes and be seen as firm in his dealings with vladimir putin. it is hard to say what the president wants out of this. he does want a good visual. he wants the world to see that he can hold his own with vladimir putin because much of the dialogue has been about how smar

thank you so much michael mckee and stewart warther. great spending time with you. up.'inutes and the session d here is where e markets stand. the dow hitting an intraday record high. the s&p up by 16 points and the nasdaq higher. watch those stocks as well. europe, the ftse is getting some over 1%.cking up steam in other asset classes it is a story of a modest dollar and what is lower on the testimony modestlyis modesty -- higher and the move in the bond market is similar. yields down six basis points. some yields down by four basis points. gets narrowerat as the day goes on and oil gets a bit over 2%. we are four minutes away from fed chair janet yellen testifying before the financial services committee. very good day to you. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: breaking news at this hour. janet yellen will testify before the house financial services committee. on the fed's monetary policy a look. potentially her last testimony. from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: in london, i'm a mark barton. today kicks off two days of testimony and remarks. they will say inflation is the

michael mckee just spoke to him and he joins us now. what did you learn from the secretary?> the president is enthusiastic but not exactly accurate, they cannot be working on a new deal with the united states yet because under eu law, we still governs the u.k., they cannot negotiate bilateral trade deals, they have to wait until they leave the european union in 2019. u.k., then has to deal with how to do with trade when new sanctions may be imposed. i asked how quickly can you get a deal with the u.s. take a listen. >> we cannot negotiate and conclude a treaty while we are in the european union. it is in our interest that we look at the sectors we want to talk about and look at where we think the gains can be met. what can we do in the service sector and financial services, and do the due diligence so that when we do leave the european union, with have a head start on a negotiated agreement. >> it is clearly in the minister's best interest to argue this can be done quickly. although he is in disagreement with the brexit minister for the united kingdom, david davis, who said

we will look across the nation with michael mckee. the road ahead for electric cars.ell you about a new forecast from bloomberg's new energy finance. we are halfway into the thursday trading day. abigail doolittle is with us now with the latest. >> pretty clearly the sellers are in control. clearly the

thank you to michael mckee.rade on death next.icipal ♪ vonnie: illinois catering on the brink of becoming the first junk rated u.s. state good they approved tax increases yesterday as lawmakers scrambled to end a budget impasse, which is in its third year. it is the third consecutive fiscal year without a budget. that began on saturday. for more, let's bring in john miller. $745 million of general obligation bonds. thanks for joining us. is it in your interest for this to be happening, a stalemate and the potential for s&p's downgrade to junk? john: we would like to see a budget agreement. -- illinois has an $800 billion economy, but it has been and a stalemate for over two years now. and yesterday's action was the first break in that stalemate. vonnie: the senate has to pass it in the governor has promised to veto it because it involves sales tax increases and whether governor considers unnecessary tax increases to spending. john: that is right. however, 50 republicans in the house moved over to support the tax

any secondhe details now from michael mckee at the fed.remind everyone, this is unusual, a friday. this will give congressmen and women in a couple of extra days to parse. the report is the look at the financial and economic conditions over the past half year, normally released when the humphrey hawkins testimony is put out, largely ignored by the market, media, and members of congress. they decided to put it out early so that more people could read it. gradual growth, gradually tightening labor markets. until recently, gradually increasing inflation. the fed says that will resume. they find equities a bit

david: bloomberg's international policy corresponded michael mckee with that. o.j. addressing a nevada parole board, making his case for early release. he was sentenced in 2008 for armed robbery. that is his daughter speaking right now. more to come. this is bloomberg. david: this is bloomberg markets. i am david gura. let's go to julie hyman for a check on notable moves this afternoon. julie: i want to start with the news we got a little while ago, that scripps networks, discussions with discovery communications and viacom are advanced and a deal could be announced this month. a bloomberg news story citing people familiar with the matter. about funding with a mixture of shares and cash, but no final decisions have been made and the talks could still fall apart. none of the companies involved agreed to comment, declined to comment for the story. spike 3.5%.ps it already spike on talks that deal talks were in progress. discovery and viacom saw a movement upward, and right now each of them is higher, viacom almost 1%. elsewhere today, we are watching steelmakers. this

michael mckee has more. >> even as labor market started to pinch.the adjectives modest and moderate, they found activity expanded across all 12 federal reserve districts this june with the pace of growth ranging from slight to moderate. growth andd modest it improves slightly in st. louis. make of it what you will but consumer spending appear to be rising across a majority of districts, even as many districts reported

on that ease of the june employment report, michael mckee joins us from cambridge, massachusetts, with what people are calling the skill gap. pollsters tell us donald trump got an electoral booster unemployed blue-collar workers. he promised to bring back the jobs they lost a foreign competition. data tells us to have a legitimate complaint. take a look at this chart g #btv 849, those with less than a college degree suffered more during the recession and have recovered last. will they get what trump promised? no.experts say it isn't foreign competition killing factory jobs, it is the machine. we are at m.i.t., where in economics professor recently completed a study on the effects of automation. ,e found that for every robot up to six humans lose their jobs and wages fall by up 2.75 of 1% -- up to .75 of 1%. he said we do have a skill gap. >> yes, we do. technology is changing rapidly and many of our skill sets, especially workers who do not have a postgraduate degree, are now being done by automated technologies, robots and for artificial intelligence. there are also many jobs and many

bloomberg's michael mckee in washington. mike, thanks so much for that update. all eyes in silicon valley are watching the latest in washington. survey monkey, the provided is truly global available in 190 survey s, 3 million responses worldwide a day. the company recently overhauled a user experience adding bevy of new services in an effort to lure more paying its platform. to joining me to discuss is their c.e.o. on t to have you back here the show. so as we mentioned, a lot of uncertainty in washington and the economic environment. what kind of impact do you think this is actually having on tech? tech has a meaningful role as you look at the tech companies oday in the stock market and the amount of financing the tech companies get. the businesses are becoming bigger and more relevant. with the travel ban the that hittis posed, pretty hard as we look at our ability to recruit talent from world.the our products are touching people all over the world including mentioned.key as we it is super important that we have a advice, adhere to our alues and stand up to th

david: joining me now is michael mckee. this is a big move. what will this do to banks? michael: it should mean less regulation for banks and perhaps a little more profit. the question is how much can orioles do on his own -- corals do on his own? what changes he makes he has to get through the fed board of governors and working with the office of the comptroller of the ad toncy and fdic he standardize regulations across the industry. it would probably do things like have avolcker rule -- volcker rule lightnened. he thinks capital standards are too high, causing banks to raise interest rates to increase profits. he thinks there are good things about dodd-frank, but he does want to make some changes. one would be to lighten the stress test regulations. david: it is not as clear to the world what donald trumps monetary policy is, but it is clear he wants less relation of the banks --regulation of the banks. michael: d'angelo was the point man forgetting new regulation -- for getting new regulations into the banking system. from what does he want monetary policy, is he going

this afternoon, william gross, janice henderson, scarlet fu leading our coverage with michael mckee inl and ian bremmer. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ surveillance." ian bremmer with us and michael darda on the future of the federal the. low rate janet, maybe low rate janet and low rate gary or low rate somebody else, that is what a politician wants. sure, i would say janet yellen would have to be the front runner in terms of being a known entity. trout was quite critical of her during the campaign but there is a difference between a campaign and once you're in office. gary cohn was mentioned by the president yesterday by somebody in the running. tom: ken rogoff said we need a monetary phd. >> i think we do, it would be off the beaten path. tom: we go back to william j miller, did you study him? >> i am not an economist. tom: you will dive in anyway. ian: politically, i have a hard time seeing donald trump not taking the opportunity to make .he fed less independent tom: do you agree? >> i worry about the prospect of cousin it is a dangerous place to go, you want someone leading the fed that h

joining us from boston is michael mckee. we made a lot of numbers and they were huge.is your base case for friday. with a 185going in on payroll so when you get a soft baby -- adp number, like many economists we have been burned in the past. is to say there is a downward by or risk to our forecast. to oneet something close of you 5000, the labor market is still in great shape. other labor markets look good if you look at all the measures. i would not take this to seriously. i think the labor markets are in great shape. >> that only goes to the fact of .hy you are in boston you have tech and health care which is on. what can you tell us about what thatave learned and how is -- >> it is a problem here because you have so much demand and not enough supply. you see it on the lower end of the scale. issues is if the robots are taking everyone's jobs. he says it is sort of a question and both at this point. we are going to destroy more jobs as we create more technology and ways of producing differently,, but i think all of is exaggerated at some level, the on the other hand,

for a look ahead, we are joined by michael mckee. obviously, jobs will be the focus on friday.gh before that are theichael: we get data on economy and how it's doing. we saw yields rise a little bit in the bond market it's going to be looking for justification. they want to see additional strength. week, we get the jobs. the problem that we track, all of this growth has not pushed prices up. ofare getting another piece the index and that's expected to fall. oil prices are going up. that may change things going on. i know megan loves this one. it's been a year since sterling fell in the wake of the brexit vote. we did have a rollover last month. prices continue to rise. there is pressure to raise rates. it's going to be an interesting week to see how prices develop. it arey will announce needs for the coming months. the question there, do we see a change in the debt ceiling dates. henathan: as soon as mentioned the treasury, they turned the lights on him. wrap it up. i know you are getting excited. themis actually very orton. the treasury announcing funding requirements for the

joining us is michael mckee. he is in washington. projectionsbout the and the recovery from eight. chael: we are seeing a slowdown in hiring, not as dramatic as we saw in may. what happened was seasonal adjustment. apparently, did not capture the people who were going to be taking the summer jobs, the high school and college students. a lot of that will be added back in today. we move up to 178,000. there is no change in the unemployment rate. it could go higher if we attract more people into the labor force. that will be the unemployment rate going up for good reason. everyone is going to be looking at the wage numbers. we expect .3% growth. that is still a disappointment. in december, we were at 2.9%. we are looking for wages to go higher. again, it's likely to go down if we have some strong hiring. more people could be coming into the workforce. it has gotten down to about a decade low. it still has farther to go. that is why we don't see wages rise. there is still slack in the labor force. they could take jobs and employers to have to pay up yet. leaders see the converge in hamb

michael mckee is in washington for a summit today. ing to see in washington today. it is like henry paulson redux that it is not. michael: it is more than that and it might be all standing between the u.s. and a trade war. donald trump came into office to lacking -- promising china was tariffs but at the mar-a-lago meeting they decided they would put together a 100 day action plan to improve trade relations between the countries. they made some progress. the chinese are buying american beef and we are buying chinese chicken. things have stalled but now they are getting together to get everything back on track. ,f you show tom this chart here this is what the u.s. is worried about. the chinese trade deficit with the united states going ever wider. it stalled in 2016 and started to go off a little bit but so far this year, headed back down. wilbur ross said yesterday we have work to do. francine: so has the u.s. administration -- how does the u.s. ministrations be to china to get more balanced trade? michael: that is an interesting quest

we appreciate it to bloomberg's michael mckee and francis go blanche. out online. interact with us directly. go to tv and click on this button here. it says "watch now live." you can check out tv . go on and click through it. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ jonathan: from new york city, this is bloomberg tv. i am jonathan ferro. a busy way for u.s. eco-data. existing home sales monday. then the s&p case report tuesday. wednesday, the latest rate this is an from the fomc. -- friday, we get the latest read on u.s. gdp. joining us now is bloomberg's matt basel are -- matt boesler. what do we need to look out for? >> one, do they change the language on inflation and acknowledge weakness we have seen with low inflation numbers? the other thing is what do they say about the balance sheet? is that coming as soon as september? jonathan: try to get a read on whether the balance sheet is data dependent or independent. you have a handle on that now? matt: it seems less aided dependent. they have been talking about how they want to get this process started. once th

michael mckee, bloomberg, washington. anna: joining us is the global generale.ciete there were some language surprises on inflation but no game changer for people's expectations about balance sheet news in september and interest rates changes in september. does that remain your expectation? >> argues that the business cycle is coming close to that. we see a slowdown are recession in 2019-22. one of the things that is puzzling is the fact that unemployment in the u.s. is at a 13 year low and yet inflation is still below the target. so there's a big question, is the phillips curve rogan? that is the link between wage inflation and unemployment. we will start to see inflation moving to the left at lower levels than be her. our view is that we should see more inflation going over, but it's just a question of timing. manus: what probability do you put on -- they're still a little bit of time in growth before that? kokou: if you look at copper 1949 termsin since of how they involve through the cycle, currently a roughly 80% thr

joining us is michael mckee. ying the foundations means and what will come out the other side? michael: they have assigned working groups to identify issues they will have to address. they cannot go much beyond that because they cannot negotiate under e.u. rules until they leave the european union in 2019 . they are putting an optimistic face on how fast this can happen, but canada recently signed its trade agreement with the e.u. and that took seven years. jonathan: laying the foundation is tough and then there is the complexity of finding a level playing field. do you have to raise their standards or does the other side have to drop theirs? what are they going to do about the issue of agriculture, and they solve it? michael: agriculture is always a difficult issue and there are some particularly tough issues here because britain has higher animal standards than the united states. there are questions about genetically modified crops, hormones, beef in the u.s., things we allow and they do not. there is a newsflas

michael mckee, bloomberg. joining us to i suppose look through all these minutes welcome. a lot to read but not a huge amount of the relent reaction in the market. but they are still on a gradual path. a tighteningct process. what did you make of the minutes? thene thing going on is balance sheet. impact ofustment, the extending the balance sheet was pretty close to zero in the real economy. it mattered a great deal for asset markets. for the real economy, almost nothing. the impact of unwinding the assets, likely to be close to zero. , theyters for wall street care a great deal. macroeconomists, not so much. the big issue is interest rates. the question on the chart you are showing earlier. is the u.s. going to achieve, in mark carney's phrase, a skate fromity? away away deflation? or not? the time after trump got elected , we were of the view, as were s, this iss and other finally it. the last couple of months, there has been a softening of that view. not at escape thecity, the overvalued, trajectory for interest rates will be muted at best. anna: what are you getting fr

michael mckee has more. >> even as labor market started to pinch. heavy on the adjectives modest and moderate, they found activity expanded across all 12 federal reserve districts this june with the pace of growth ranging from slight to moderate. growth andd modest it improves slightly in st. louis. make of it what you will but consumer spending appear to be rising across a majority of districts, even as many a softeningported of consumer spending. many factory services continued to show modest to moderate gain. construction expanding, energy activity generally improved except for call. employment continued to show modest to moderate pace of expansion. industriesge of reported, difficult to find qualified workers, particularly for construction and i.t. jobs. labor shortages are a barrier to expansion. case, thet is the labor market continues to tighten which groups only at a modest to moderate pace for low and high skilled workers. overall prices continue to rise modestly across a majority of districts. in some districts, they may ease. report thato

mckee,mberg's michael thank you.g up on wednesday, bloomberg will have a special report of the fed decision starting at 2:00 p.m. this is bloomberg. >> this is bloomberg. can, lookinge forward to another dramatic week. is kevinake us to call cirilli. >> let's talk about capitol hill and mr. kushner. what jared know kushner's -- jared kushner is going to tell the u.s. senate committee when he meets with them later today behind closed doors. he will likely face questions about meetings he had not previously disclosed and about his role with working -- working with cambridge international. he was heavily involved with social media and the trump campaign. he released an 11 page document earlier this morning and we have a bit of it for you. he says i did not collude or .now of anyone in the campaign i have no improper contacts. i have not relied on russian funds to finance my business activities in the -- on friday, he filed additional -- who are >> it is not the only thing going on. here, we're going to have a vote on a

and the bloomberg international economics correspondent michael mckee. let's start with you.ne thing the president wants to do is repeal and replace obamacare. still no big developments on health care. the cbo scored the latest repeal bill. they say 32 million americans would lose coverage over the next decade. that it would lead to a billion dollar deficit reduction. it is unclear if the senate majority leader's position and assertion that he will bring this up for a floor vote, or try to next week, with pass. behind the scenes, lawmakers are looking to move on to tax reform. the house budget committee laying in a markup the reconciliation process and setting the stage for the roles that they will need to follow, not only for the budget, but to pass tax reform and repealing parts of dodd-frank. david: that is the pesky congress the president has to deal with. when it comes to trade he doesn't have to deal with congress so much. the u.s.-china negotiations, how did they work out? everything we know, they failed. nothing came out of yesterday's meetings. it appears that may ha

tom: how do we get here with some of the opaqueness where michael mckee is fixated on the -ly words?ing they want this done in september. they want to give themselves wiggle room. yellen before the december fed meeting also said "relatively soon." they're saying we want to announce the normalization at the september meeting, but it comes down to adverbs instead of nouns. francine: we love adverbs, especially if they are jumbled together. raising the debt ceiling, how much would that impact the fed's plan to redirect the balance sheet? richard: that is a great question. the balance sheet decision, the fed would like that in september , but if history is a guide september could be a contentious month and extending the debt limit. secretary mnuchin has some leeway into where the debt ceiling is binding, but that could be a factor. beunderstanding is it won't that this goes into october before the debt ceiling gets on the front pages. it could be a factor. francine: you say it is time for the trump administration to go back to policy. what is the number one policy you would like to see,

michael mckee mentioned the idea of not so much a stacked audience but a poll and that once to greetbuffer -- a poland that wants to greet the united states as a buffer. francine: he chose the most friendly nation to his hostile view of immigration and strong sense of sovereignty. he will receive a warm reception in poland. then he travels to hamburg and the g-20. tom: the president in poland. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> the consensus grows over reigning in blues financial conditions. the united states raises rates ahead of the g-20. the president says he is considering pretty severe things on north korea. deutsche bank back to frankfurt following britain's exit from the european union. daybreak."oomberg i am jonathan ferro alongside david westin and a special welcome back to alix steel. auction.ench back through .5%. a 17 month high on the german 10 year yield. taking the euro with it. oat: in

now is kevin also michael mckee. how excited are we for janet yellen?important. not much else going on. the cpi report comes in friday and everyone is watching inflation that there is a political overlay to janet yellen's appearance. the president has to nominate a fed chair sometime in the fall and get them confirmed in time for the expiration of her term at the end of january. this could be something of a job interview for her. she is still on the list is for is we know but many republicans on capitol hill would like to get rid of her and have somebody republican put into the job. so it's high drama in fed land that there are a couple of other dramas and one has to do with russia. the other has to do with health care. which one will be more dramatic? kevin: i think health care will be more dramatic because we are three weeks away from the august recess. lawmakers only have to work three weeks and i get another they k shouldn't and a senate majority leader would like to see something before the beginning of that august recess even if it means he has to

michael mckee had great coverage of that yesterday. we continue with mario gabelli.♪ taylor: this is a "bloomberg surveillance." the keys toing over its business in russia. they are merging a ride hailing this is in russia and uber will than aand will take more third of the stake in the new venture which will be valued at more than $3.7 billion. the deal is uber second retreat from the major markets. that is the bloomberg business flash. guy: president trump and the first lady are in paris. they're are looking to find common ground as they had to the day events tomorrow. why is the president in paris? tothe president is in paris try to smooth over some of the relationships between the u.s. and france by focusing on areas of common interest. specifically areas of national defense. the president will mark the 100th anniversary of the u.s., partnering with the french in world war ii and the partnership that has gone on since then with the u.s. and france on the same side. , fighting isis alongside one another in syria. at the president will try to work with the new pres

michael mckee will lead our coverage. as mr.uld hope would give the speech at lunch on saturday. that is the tradition. we have a tradition on friday to give you a bloomberg that affects every american. frankly, this is a story in europe, too. disinflation,of many saying it is transitory. here's the cleveland cpi, my favorite. here is service sector cpi in white. and down here is goods producing sector migrating down. mail from allthe of our viewers is their focus on this 3% inflation rate up top, the service sector cpi. guy: tom, can the fed have it all? tenet managed the front end of the curve and not generate a stronger dollar? -- can it manage the front end of the current? and provide lower borrowing costs acute the u.s. economy running above potential? that is the big question many in the market are grappling with. the dollar stories interesting. there are plenty of great shots of the dollar but here is one. take a look at dollar-yen. the 200 and 100 day moving averages. there is some evidence. 100 may bethe crosses below t