in michael mckee who happens to be in jackson hole, wyoming, but has covered washington, d.c. in the past. run fortor has president and basically done everything there is to be done in washington, d.c. michael: he is definitely an icon in american politics and a hero for his exploits during the vietnam war. when io know john mccain was a reporter in arizona and he was a congressman. a grandson of an admiral and joined the navy, was shot down by hanoi and was in the notorious hanoi hilton for five years. he was offered release but refused to go because of his other prisoners of war. back, had a brief career as a businessman and decided to go back into politics, elected to the house of representatives and then the senate where he has served as a principal conservative in the ronald reagan mode. the party has moved far to the right since he was first elected. he ran for president twice, did reasonably well, but lost the ultimate prize. he came back to the senate to focus on defense issues, which given his background was important to him. he had one final triumph with a major defen

atand we have michael mckee jackson hole for some headlines live. >> thank you. j. powell does talk about the u.s. economy in his remarks, but he does not say anything new. he says over the course of a long recovery, the economy has strengthened, and with household and rising stimulus, there is good reason to expect the strong performance will continue, which raises the conundrum, do you move aggressively to head off inflation and risk setting the economy back, or do you move too slowly and let the economy overheat? here is what he had to say about that. "i see the path of interest rates -- of raising interest rates taken seriously. they are going to be inflation-dependent." while inflation has recently moved up near 2%, we see no clear sign of an acceleration above 2%. there does not seem to be no accelerated risk of overheating. the policy says the economy is strong and inflation is rising about where the fed wanted to be. --arey are on the right on the same rate path. the history of how the fed deal with uncertainty in the economy goes back to the great inflation

thanks to michael mckee. we will bring you more.his is "bloomberg." ♪ vonnie: president trump says the u.s. and mexico have reached a deal. he says we will see if canada is separate or part of the agreement. he said he is going to get rid of the name. deal is incredible for workers and he is saying we will be able to work out a deal with china. we will bring all of that live. let's bring in christopher gannatti, wisdom tree europe. [no audio] 24 years and we might be seeing some differences. in europe, you look at the markets this year. oriented companies have been stronger than many haveted given that you been hearing about trade talks and trade war's depending on the day. vonnie: what are your clients asking you? question because each time you go in, you see clients concerned about different factors. what is exciting is there is opportunity outside the u.s. but at the same time the feeling is, clients are most comfortable continuing to ebb best -- to invest in the u.s., in those same companies that have driven returns higher. mark

i michael mckee.our global tour of the week's top business stories with an unexpected shakeup in this week that food and beverage giant pepsico. >> stepping down as ceo of pepsico. she will leave the role in october after a decade at the helm. she will be succeeded by one of her top lieutenants. >> it looks like an orderly transition is in the making. having said that, there will be investor concern about fit of the north american beverages place within his portfolio. this company has relied heavily on internal, organic innovation to drive growth. that among other things, it will be her legacy, that she drove innovation as an innovative company and leader. but to grow faster rates within mature industries, it may require them to put their balance sheet to work, to make more aggressive acquisitions, particularly outside the u.s., where in developing markets you see faster growth. >> saudi arabia has suspended diplomatic ties with canada, halting new trade and investment dealings. the saudis are respond

i am michael mckee. this is "bloomberg best," your weekly review of the most important analysis and interviews from bloomberg television around the world. let's start with a top -- a day by day look at the top headlines. since withdrawing from the nuclear deal in may, the u.s. has been turning up rhetorical heat on the government of iran. monday, he raised the economic pressure as well. >> president trump restored sanctions on iran midnight tonight, reaffirms the u.s.'s plans to impose tougher penalties on oil imports in november. the move has drawn fresh condemnation from european allies who are standing by the 2015 iran nuclear deal that the president withdrew from in may. >> what are in these sanctions? going to impact the u.s. dollar purchases and dollars training as well as aluminum and industrial software, as well as potentially impacting the automotive sector and iranian debt purchases. the second round of additional sanctions are set to begin in mid-november. we have seen the real hit by these sa

michael mckee, is the litmus paper for the system currently yen stronger is something that president nts to see? michael: he does not want to see the dollar stronger, but if the fed keeps raising interest rates and we keep growing at a 4% pace, that is what will happen. the forecasts are we will see growth drop off a little bit, but the fed is the raising rates -- is still raising rates. we might see the dollar rise. i am not a dollar forecaster and i will not tell you what is going to happen, but at this point i would not count on the dollar falling back. tom: you are in the midwest and i know you have a couple of caterpillar tractors in the driveway that you use on the weekend. caterpillar with good earnings. what do you see amid a 4% gdp among midwest and basic american multinational companies, is it a boom economy for them? much: things of gotten better in the manufacturing sector, no question, but then the corrosive effect on the edges, the narrowing profit margins, pricing on -- passing on the price increases, because we are in a stronger economy those are easier to pass on and

we will have important interviews with michael mckee.spective at someone who is good at gauging economic growth. stephen stanley on your and chairman powell's economy. stay with us. this is "bloomberg." ♪ xfinity mobile is a new wireless network designed to save you money. even when you've got serious binging to do. wherever your phone takes you, your wireless bill is about to cost a whole lot less. use less data with a network that has the most wifi hotspots where you need them and the best 4g lte everywhere else. saving you hundreds of dollars a year. and ask how you get xfinity mobile included with your internet. plus, get $300 back when you buy a new smartphone. xfinity mobile. it's simple. easy. awesome. click, call or visit a store today. morning, this early jackson hole morning, it is just as much who is not in wyoming on the theory that chairman powell, what is the theory behind brexit? at surveillance, we recalibrate in september. principlesto first with stephen stanley on the idiosyncratic theories on american economic growth.

i am michael mckee.te earnings reports were again, a major focus of investor attention this week. our roundup begins with a result from a global banking behemoth. >> hsbc is struggling to produce any significant revenue growth from its long-term bet on asian markets. costs increased 7%. even so, the finance director told bloomberg first and second quarter results were in line with their expectations. >> we saw good revenue growth the first two quarters of the year, and that it's translating to a good reporting profit progress. we continue to invest in the growth of the business and have strong balance. so feeling confident where we stand. david the pace of winning new : customers slowed and commerzbank warned operating costs would be higher than planned. >> we have seen growth where we have reached our year-end target of 386 billion at half year so that is where you see the growth , and that is where the strategy wants to see the growth. so, that is paying off well. in the corporate bank, we have a compe

jonathan: joining us now is international economic correspondent michael mckee.hat have we learned from chairman powell today? we are going to seek the fed raise rates in september. and probably december. he made the case their people arguing the fed should move faster because the economy is picking up speed. their people that make the case that with no inflation, affected move at a slower pace. he picked the middle route and says gradual rate increases is justified at this time. no indication he would change. theret of problems out that might influence the moves. it was this is what we are doing. jonathan: a beautiful jackson hole with michael mckee. think you for joining us. joining me in new york city is h,at horn back -- matt hornba subadra rajappa and!. .-and james rogers subadra: the message was one of caution and gradualism. they have been hiking one. there is no rush to squeeze in the a lot of hikes over the coming year. i think they will be very cautious. if more hikes are warranted, and proceed as required. jonathan: matt, they are trying to link it bac

jonathan: joining us now is bloomberg's international economic policy correspondent, michael mckee. at have we learned from chairman powell today? michael: we are going to seek the fed raise rates in september and probably in december. he made the case there are people arguing the fed should move faster because the economy is picking up speed. there are people who make the case that with no inflation, that could move at a slower pace. he picked the middle route and says gradual rate increases is justified at this time. no indication he would change. no list of problems out there that we saw in the minutes that might influence him. it was this is what we are doing. jonathan: a beautiful jackson hole with michael mckee. thank you for joining us. joining me in new york city is matt hornbach, subadra rajappa and coming to me from atlanta is rob wldner. great to have you with me. it seems like it is chairman powell saying more of the same at the same pace. subadra: the message was one of caution and gradualism. thus far they have been hiking once a quarter. there is no rush to squeeze in

jonathan: bloombergs michael mckee, thank you for joining us.oining me around the table is matt hornbach, subadra rajappa and coming to me from atlanta is rob wldner. great to have you with me. it seems like it is chairman powell saying more of the same at the same pace. subadra: the message was one of caution and gradualism. basically, thus far they have been hiking one supporter. there's no rush to squeeze in a lot of hikes over the next coming year. i think they will be very cautious to assess on every meeting. if more heights are warranted and proceed as required. jonathan: matt, they are trying to link it back to jackson hole, wyoming. forget the dollar just for a moment. there is nothing that is changed from jackson hole and there is no difference i can see from chairman powell today from the month before that, and the month before that, and the month before that. matt: the market probably got ahead of itself trying to make up the story that the fed needs to accelerate the pace of hiking and here you can see the market is disappointed that

let's bring back in michael mckee. she jumped her and robert litan -- joked her and robert lighthizer krzyweski's. -- could switch seats. michael: i found it notable that when asked if robert lighthizer was negotiating in good faith, she dodged the question. she did not look happy. i have covered her and the negotiations for some time and you have to read sm is an entity body language -- you have to read pessimism into the body language. they kept saying she has to stand up for the canadian interest. they will not give any more ground. whether they can reach a deal darker. it looks nadaie: the u.s. irked ca when it said it would investigate under national security offices -- offices. is that in the background? she talked about the canadian national interest and the largest nonmilitary border in the world. michael: the tariffs irked the canadians because they were posed on national security group and justin trudeau said he thought that was ridiculous, then president trump took him on an relations deteriorated. as the pr

joining us is michael mckee, our policy correspondent. with us as well very take us into -- as well. michael, take us into it. where are we? michael: the u.s. has more protection for companies in mexico. when the things with the president lopez coming in, he could possibly nationalize the mexican oil company or have deals and there are protections. they apparently made progress and the trump administration wants more cars made in the united states. there are compromises. we do not know on what they have done on procurement. there are rumors that the u.s. has backed up demand every five dispute resolution settlement, we do not know what they have done. that is one of the keys for canada when they come back. is it dispute resolution important in mexico? michael: that falls under investor protection which is a clause in most trade deals. allows companies to see you. in theory, it allows companies to sue the united states pay trade experts say it is standard to have it in their as we don't do that. it is not a threat to the united states. we

alix: michael mckee, thank you very much but we will hear from michael for rowley, jpmorgan chief americanter this morning. -- michael feroli. says why it is time to get defensive, and he does not like tech. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: musk meets son. cox went nowhere. -- talks went nowhere. and the u.s. hits russian with more sanctions. tensions rise with turkey. in china retaliates on trade. mike wilson of morgan stanley stays difference -- defensive. inflation expectation rolls over with oil prices. david: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." i am david westin. right here with alix steel. we cannot stay away from the muskra -- tesla and elon story. but ppm may be more portent. alix: it will be interesting, especially on the dog days of summer. s&p futures pretty much going nowhere, sitting right around the record high. the currency market is one to be watching. a lot of whipsaw action based on geopolitical headlines. lira with another record low. the ruble sinks to a two-year low. yesterday-year option despite the fact he did not see a three handle on the 10-year. today you get a $2 billion

let's get to one of our trade experts, who is michael mckee back from jackson hole. we were anticipating a nafta agreement between the two countries. but it is not a nafta agreement until canada gets involved. michael: that is correct. mexico and canada agreed they want a trilateral agreement. the u.s. has reached an agreement with mexico on local car or truckmuch has to be made in the united states? 75% seems to be the working assumption, although we don't have the final details. in exchange, mexico has agreed to raise the level of pay for workers working on these cars to $16 an hour. good news for canada and the united states. this will make mexico less competitive. we are waiting to find out the agreement on the sunset clause, which is the big sticking point. that is whether or not the nafta agreement will be scrapped every five years. there are several other areas in which we don't have details. procurement is a big one. canada, the u.s., mexico government can be steered on and did on other countries -- and bidded on other countries. the current deal is handled ot

are joined now by michael mckee, bloomberg's international economic and policy correspondent. iggle room is therefore today's deadline? michael: there is some wiggle room. this is an artificial deadline put in place by the trump administration. they would like to be able to sign the deal before mexican president leaves office on december 1. the president has to send a 90 day notification to congress that a treaty is coming. he would have to do it today to get it in for that december 1 deadline. but, they don't have to have a completed treaty up to congress for another 30 days after this. there is still a month of negotiation possible. shery: now we are hearing from a spokesperson saying that the dailies -- of the dairy sector could be a problem. i thought canada had make concessions under the tpp or with its free trade deal with the eu. michael: they had. many saw that as a possible opening for a negotiated settlement. it could give ground. this is not all about the dairy sector in its entirety. it is about certain subsectors of that. there may have been wiggle room. prime mini

he will turn to michael mckee -- we will turn to michael mckee live in jackson hole. e all morning long and will bring a lot of interviews, as well as james bullard who is president of the st. louis fed. michael: good morning. we would like to welcome everyone who is listening to us on radio and watching us. we want to welcome james bullard. james: thank you for having me. you have to pretend you like it. there is a lot of focus on the chairman's speech. the minutes suggest that the fed is locked in for september, so even if you disagree with that rate pass, is there a reason to think he will say anything market-moving today? james: the chair will be very careful, but he will do a good job. he is always very serious. michael: you don't get the impression there is a change a foot for the open market committee and the rate path they are on? michael: the markets are putting a high probability on september and you can pull the other members on the committee like him. there seems to be sentiment in that direction. michael: do you expect forward guidance to drop out and that

michael mckee. michael: a downside surprise to the headlines hiring number.onsensus. average hourly earnings go up 2.7% unchanged from june 3 unemployment ticked down to 3.9%. more than 600,000 inches the labor force in june. 14,000 jobs lost in education with kids out for the summer. one could be the demise of the retailer toys "r" us. 31,800 jobs lost. trump tariffuick numbers here. primary metals terrell, steel and aluminum companies lost 700 jobs, but metal fabricators of steel and a moment gained 5100. coal was unchanged. by fifth 2000.f utility jobs of by 5200. us isbor market telling it a steady as she goes. missedthe one thing we has last month's revision. it looked like they took it up. do i have it right? michael: it looks that way. we had the seasonal variations. when we get the seasonal numbers, that number will be revised again. it is the case of the labor market being very strong. you get these monthly seasonal variations. the toys "r" us numbers back in. and you are up to almost 200,000 jobs. david: we will be coming back you to look into the s

mckee. ndent, michael walk me through what we have learned? >> i think what we have learned is that we are going to see the fed raise rates in september, and probably in december. he made the case that there are people arguing the fed should move faster because the economy is picking up speed and there are people who make the case that with no inflation in sight, fed could move at a slower part. he picked the middle route and say gradual increases is justified as this time. no indication that he would change. no list of problems out there that we saw in the minutes that might influence them. pretty much this is what we are doing, and we are going to keep doing it. >> from beautiful jackson holliday, michael mckee. joining me around the table is matt, global head of separate strategy of morgan stanley, and the managing director of head of u.s. rate strategy. and coming to me from atlanta, is rob, chief strategist and head of fixed incomes. >> it seems like it is chair powell saying more of the same at the same pace. >> yes. i think the message

michael mckee joins us now.politics,out can you bring us into the economic world of turkey right now? mike: not a good picture. turkey has spent a lot, erdogan spent a lot to get reelected to stimulate the economy ahead of time. and now it is at 15%. so they have got a problem there already and a very large current account deficit, that will make a harder for them to pay their bills if the lira keeps falling. and a lot of companies that have dollar denominated loans, they are the ones that will feel the pain first as the dollar continues to strengthen against the lira. alix: we were talking about the three options, imf bailout, capital controls are central bank action. all three of them probably not realistic. jennifer: again, i think it is worth speaking about what investors want to see in the near term and what will be available for long-term recovery. what he will have to see is the strong man climbing down from some of his it really unorthodox views about monetary policy and what the economy actually needs.

shery: thank you michael mckee and shawn.s we were discussing, president trump's new free trade -- free trade pact with mexico would overhaul cars built across the region. this is easing concerns across the auto industry about a prolonged trade battle between the neighboring nations. meanwhile, the eu's top trade official says the block is willing to include cars among u.s. industrial goods that could be imported duty-free. to discuss the latest developments for the auto industry is our detroit bureau chief, and chris reiter in berlin. david, let me start with you. give us the just of what was discussed -- gist of what was discussed in the trade deal when it comes to the auto industry. david: what they have proposed is that they would move the content rule, the number or percentage of parts of every vehicle that is required to be tariff rate to 75% between the u.s. and mexico, canada is not yet included, although they are in discussions to do that. and 40%-40 5% of the parts in these vehicles, in order to qualify for duty-fre

scarlet fu leading coverage with michael mckee in washington.ock as well. please stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ day.fed let's do a single best chart on fed day in the u.s. let's do india. really important -- interesting press conference in india. here is the inflation-adjusted five-year yield in india. here is where it was, here is the crisis, and up here is the high your real rate of any struggling emerging-market economy. we are raising rates and they really don't want us to do that. pow has beenrman clear about this -- powell has been clear about this. the fed will do what is appropriate for the u.s. economic backdrop. two more hikes this year and we expect four hikes next year, which we know is out of market expectations. let's take a step back. we are in your ninth of an economic expansion and growth is accelerating. the fed is going to continue to respond to that despite what may be happening elsewhere. tom: does it get us into e.m. instabilities that we saw in 1992, 1994, 1997? tom p.: we are talking about much lower rates overall.

shery: for more, let's bring in michael mckee.ike, this is not the first time we're hearing president trump hitting back at the wto. called: first time he is it the worst trade deal ever made. that was nafta. maybe he is going to get a deal. he is switching gears. the president has not been a fan it takes u.s.ause sovereignty to a supranational organization that can rule on whether or not the u.s. was competing unfairly in trade and can impose penalties. he has never liked that idea. most economists say we would be in big trouble without the deputy out the head director general of the wto told us today in an interview it would be one of the worst things possible for an economy like united states which is so connected to the rest of the world. he says we are working on some of the changes president wants to see. mike, is there a way to tie the story together with the idea that some of the tariff battles we have seen and tariffs imposed by the u.s., that there is this belief that if all the trade deals look the way the president ult

let's bring in michael mckee, our man on the ground who knows all things international and the economy. probably not the final day. michael: probably not the final day, but the final day for the time being. we knew that chrystia freeland was not optimistic as she entered the meeting with the u.s. trade representative, and they fail to reach an agreement. we don't know exactly why. with -- there are said to be several issues. it electoral property. we don't know who has ever to compromise and who is not. they are going to leave washington without an agreement. joe: why has there been so much focus on today? is, as you were talking about, an artificial deadline set by the trump administration because they want thedeal signed by the time mexican president leaves office. the president is required to submit a notification for congress that the treaty is coming 90 days before happens. this is the day he would have to do it to meet the december 1 deadline. caroline: let's go to laura of the wilson center canada institute. you have been looking at the elements of the us-mexico deal, tolerable

vonnie: michael mckee, thank you. fantastic reporting from jackson hole.ould birch -- urge everyone to go to tv to see them. -- nigel wilson talks social value next. this is bloomberg. ♪ vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." aboutors are talking where patients capital can invest in commercial value. , we asked him to define the concept. inclusive capitalism puts equal weight on both words. inclusive, catching the people left behind in the last 15 to 20 years who have not seen any increases in wages for students or debts or public infrastructure that has been following behind massively in america, the u.k. and most of europe. and capitalism because that is model has worked. it has lifted millions of people out of poverty in the last 20 or 30 years. it is producing extraordinary amounts of wealth and driving growth around the world right now. the global economy is in great shape. >> insurance, pensions funds are ideally suited for long-dated patient investing. can you make those investments in a way that includes more than fair or just or socially right?

we will turn to michael mckee. going into this month, a lot of people were talking about tariffs. s bad news for the overall gdp numbers because trade deficit subtracts from growth. we do not have all the details on trade numbers but let me pull up a chart to show you what we are talking about. we saw in prior months, soybean exports. you can see early in the year, soybean exports soared, countries were trying to get ahead of potential tariffs. in the -- in june, we saw them flatten. did we see them start to decline? which is what everybody expects. we will get more detail on the numbers but that is the kind of thing people have been looking at. was there buying in advance? we saw this with steel and aluminum, trying to beat the tariffs, stockpiling ahead of that and i would suggest we will see the deficit continue to widen. david: the president is fixated on the trade deficit. his strategy toward china does not seem to be working this far, but maybe he would say, get tougher? he said the other day this is not the time to talk to the chinese about doing something about the dispute,

michael mckee joins us with more. earlier i described inflation as benign. till qualify it that way? michael: we can, it is less the level than the speed with which it is appreciating. we saw the headline number holdfast. in the months to come, it is likely to stay there been because we have some numbers. august last year was one of the highest for inflation, so you will not get as much of an increase on a year-over-year basis. core inflation, that may go up some. there are a lot of, and i do not want to use the word idiosyncratic" because we use that with turkey, but the core at the bottom, it is 2.4%. that is the highest since 2008. it is based on things like airfares, which had gone down, going back up, car and truck prices continuing to rise, a rise in prescription drug prices . things you would not necessarily attribute to a much stronger economy because car sales have been slowing a little bit. maybe the season where they get baked in. julie: how does this inform what the fed does? or are they more paying attention to pce and less watching cpi numbers?

joining us from jackson hole is michael mckee and in bloomberg's genus malik and peter coy -- genus maliknd peter coy. you are in jackson hole. what was different? did anything surprise you? michael: he talked more about the economy than some people thought he might, but did not say anything new. they are calling this the goldilocks speech. he presented it as a set of questions. if the economy is strengthening, why isn't the fed tightening more aggressively to avoid it overheating? if unemployment continues to fall in inflation does not rise, why is the fed tightening as aggressively as it is because they do not need to? he said basically it is a matter of risk management. you want to steer down the middle and avoid the economy overheating but avoid putting the brakes on it as well. he said the gradual path of rate increases is what should be done. he compared it to alan greenspan in the 1990's, saying we needed a risk management policy. you keep looking to see what affect your policies are having an to be ready to stop at any time if you see things going the wrong way. david: if we conti

and of course, our thanks to bloomberg's michael mckee.'re staying in washington with wilbur ross. stay tuned. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome to balance of power. here are our top stories. trade countdown. the united states tells canada it has until friday to join the u.s.-mexico trade deal. we talk with wilbur ross about what canada needs to do. and advice and advise and consent, we talk about two senators from a democrat corn of maryland, and republican johnson from wisconsin. brewer aboutjan what should happen. age was 24 hours ago that we heard president trump announced the new mexico trade deal. welcome wilbur ross to bloomberg television and radio from washington. >> thank you for having me on. david: let's start with canada here and heard we have

bloomberg's michael mckee joins us. what should we expect? michael: that they very good question. the 42nd meeting of the kansas city fed economic symposium. them madey two of news. ben bernanke during the financial crisis setting the stage. the others have been general overviews of whatever the topic of the year is. this year's topic doesn't lend itself to much conversation or headlines. that is, the changing and market structure and the implications down the road for monetary policy. some think the fed might be trying to start a conversation about a pause, perhaps at the , and of coursear the trade tensions on the horizon. this might be an opportunity for jay powell to continue that for now kind of language he used in this summer's testimony. that is the question. does he want to send a signal, or would he like to just calm, participate, and not make match news in this quiet august? will find out tomorrow with the chairman's remarks are released. shery: thank you. still ahead, billionaire tom steyer is making a $50 million push for president trump's impeachment, but why democrat

. >> speaking with michael mckee from jackson hole.ther step on the road to getting back into china. and this time it involves the parent company alphabet setting up a waymo subsidiary there. wills set up a unit that focus on testing and logistics. the move comes after google confirmed it is working with the chinese government to create a search engine for use in china. google left china in 2010 over censorship concerns. coming up, it takes a village to run apple, but beyond the ceo tim cook, who are the other faces of the tech giant that we may not know as well. we will discuss next. this weekend on bloomberg television's, we will bring you our best interviews from the week, including our interview with brad smith after it said it found and seized bogus websites created by russian hackers. tune in this saturday for the best of bloomberg technology. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ cook'swell, it is tim seventh anniversary at apple but behind the face of the company over 100 executives help run outside the limelight. cook says passing through ba

with the goode work of our michael mckee and kathleen hays.izuho securities. with us of credit suisse. the atlanta gdp numbers are superb. do you have a belief in those kinds of numbers? assumptions built in about where we are going. i would look at the data we have and the data says we have an economy running 2%. that is where we have been on average. within that is your work on .nalyzing the american consumer what is the -- what does the american consumer look like into autumn? growth. running at 2% it is hard to get much beyond that. bit from little investment spending, a little bit from trade, from inventory and that is where the economy is. guy: good morning. guy johnson in london. we had a piece over the weekend that talks about september is a done deal. december looks more difficult to factor in. there are a whole bunch of factors and the policy environment becomes more difficult. he is pointing us to an environment where the fed has a think about what is happening around the world and waits until march. is that what gradually means? st

joining us is michael mckee. so, is nafta officially dead?his is sort of a breakthrough in a general sense with mexico, they still have to get canada to sign on. there is a lot of progress that needs to be made in order to do that, the president's idea -- what he said about terminating nafta, officials have walked in that back. it does not look like you actually send congress a notice that he is pulling out of nafta, but if a new agreement is assigned that will terminate the old one -- is signed, that will terminate the old one. it is not make sense for him to send an announcement that he is terminating it, because you have to give congress six months notice and they want to get that ratified long before that time. caroline: this is good for the auto sector in particular, but what now in terms of freeland coming to washington? what steps could be made in terms of the canadian agreement? mike: i'm not sure what people are pushing -- why people are pushing them shares, because we did not have tariffs on auto anyway. it is not likely will sell m

that was michael mckee. fed watching for the decision coming up at 2:00 eastern time.ra first word news. >> trade can be resolved through negotiation and blackmail won't work or the u.s. wants to ratchet up pressure on china to resume trade talks. bloomberg has learned the trip administration may double planned tariffs on chinese imports. they may be waiting for the u.s. itmake -- take action before reveals its next move. learned twog is countries are in the final stages of negotiating a deal on rules for cars sold under nafta. mexico's economy minister will come for u.s. trade or presented to talks. and theresa may cutting her vacation short to gain support for her brexit plan. meet manual macron and the south of france and emphasize the risk of the u.k. leaving without a deal. eu projected a key part of mays plan. global news on-air and on twitter powered by 2700 journalists and analysts at 120 countries. this is bloomberg. david: coming up, telecom earnings are in focus. towill have the man here explain it to us. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is bloomberg daybreak. c

michael mckee is bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent.d jackson hole, so we can see the background behind mike. central bankers have a lot to contend with. we got the minutes, and the fed is on track for perhaps two put more in chris wray increases this year. there is emerging-market contagion to deal with an pressure. what should markets be watching? >> it is kind of funny, you mentioned the economists and policymakers, this place is also crawling with journalists. in the interviews journalists will do, we will get some news. jay powell is speaking here and make his eye to say something, but the tradition of fed chairs here is a key but rather bland. it will be the collective wisdom of the rest of the policymakers. at the sidelines, all those topics you mentioned will come up. i suspect one of the most interesting things that people will talk about and will be asked about is what is going on in emerging markets. isa certain extent, it idiosyncratic, a word we like to work -- use. but there are strains around the world as the fed raises r

tom: michael mckee has done a great job, canada, mexico to cover this.afta? are these profound changes from mexico? >> the most important change around nafta is to get the uncertainty eliminated. the whole thing is for everybody to save face. >> that is why it is important the sunset clause. tom: help me with that. >> the idea is they will renegotiate every five years. that will create uncertainty. we need a deal that eliminates uncertainty and corporates know we'll be there for the long haul. that will eliminate uncertainty. tom: do you have a trade on mexico this morning, peso-renminbi? >> you are reading my mind. mexico then trading outperformance against brazil and other emerging markets. the question is whether that bet is still valid if there is uncertainty around nafta. the nafta deal is making progress, but news reports are conflicting. francine: what does that mean? we understand there are a lot of obstacles, but we have a framework. if we are inching closer, what do you buy? >> if there is progress, the mexican peso is a relatively cheap curren

join us now from washington is michael mckee. how much is the fed going to look at this number? n't pay a whole lot of attention. meetings into the next so we will get plenty of data between now and then. the markets really don't care. as long as we don't have a 2.7% on anprise, annual basis over the last several months area unless that accelerates, no one will change their feeling about the fed. we don't have any reason to believe it will go up. ae bloomberg consensus is 2.7% annual rate and less consumer start to make more money is could go on indefinitely. as long as workers want jobs and companies don't have to pay to get them, this on a regular basis. we talked about central banks being data dependent. how data dependent is the fed right now? there's a lot of data still to come. fed feels like it's on rails. for jay powell and company to change tack of this time, that would take a lot. michael: they are not going very far are very fast. they're looking another rate rise in september and maybe another in december. there's no reason to not do that. they don't seem to have slow