we will come back to michael mckee with an important interview in a few moments. right now, the coen guilty plea. -- just before he got to a helicopter and air force one, michael cohen's plea. president trump: by being weak unlike other people you watch, he is a weak person. aat he is trying to do is get reduced sentence. he is lying about a project everyone knew about it we were very open with it. speaking about building a illing, we had an option, decided ultimately not to do it. there would have been nothing wrong had i done it. if i did do it, there would have been nothing wrong. that is my business. >> two things i find interesting, everyone knew about it. i am not sure everyone knew about it i have seen him say we have not had deals with the russians in various contexts. he decided not to do it when? according to michael cohen's statement today, the decision was made in mid-june days after a very significant meeting between his son and a russian named the tally a, russian adoptions enter on hillary came up. a -- anit seemed like attempt to gloss over this in

thanks to michael mckee in argentina.ill have an interview with the oecd secretary-general next hour. stay tuned for that. guy: you can find all of the fantastic optionality we use on yourloomberg, g tv on bloomberg. pull up the charts. battle of the charts coming up later on the program. this is bloomberg. ♪ london, i am guy johnson. vonnie: in new york i am vonnie quinn and this is the european close on bloomberg markets. deutscheany has raided bank and a money-laundering investigation in their quote -- and of headquarters is among the places searched. we are joined by our banks of water who joins us live. they share price has dropped. what do we know about this investigation and how serious it could be for deutsche bank? >> we know that the police deployed 170 law enforcement officials that raided six locations including a private home. one suspect was in the raid. the scale of the operation was quite big. hard to say what it means. everything that smells like a legal problem can cause nervousness among deutsche b

michael mckee, thank you.ack with a look -- in a little bit with the battle of the chart . >> a good reminder. credit markets are set for their worst year since 2008. the crisis obviously happened. nice to see you this afternoon. the euro is underperforming. producing negative returns. thatus the significance of happening. crisis, youcial could almost say smooth sailing. wasly because a big part accommodating central banks, both in the u.s. and the have propelled the markets. that was the main factor going into the year. are worried about with credit markets is whether the european central bank is taking away this massive stimulus. we knew the fed would keep increasing rates at a certain point. but ever since then, we have seen risks compiling into the market. we have seen italian politics weighing, exit, emerging market jitters, and last month and this month, we have seen risks as well. some that we almost forgot about, especially investment grade, people getting concerned about individual names, whether they

let's go now to michael mckee at the fed. >> i'll keep it short. we expected nothing and we got it. in interest rates. very little change to the statement. no forward guidance on what happens next. either in december or 2019. no move to adjust interest on excess reserves and no mention of the balance sheet. in their statement, the fed officials' description of the labor market is unchanged from september. quote, it has continued to strengthen. the same for their description of the economy. quote, activity has been rising at a strong rate. couple of tweeks to the statement. unemployment, which stayed low in september, has declined this month. household spending has continued to grow strongly, while business investment in the biggest tweak, quote, has moderated from its

it gets a michael mckee in buenos aires, international policy correspondent.s on how to deal with global problems. the seating arrangement alone would have proved a major headache at this one. how obvious is it where the faultlines lie, given who is sitting besides whom? putin.: vladimir it is interesting seating chart. i think the leaders kind of grand seats. one of the interesting aspects when donald trump came in, he saw attorneys away -- theresa and walked over and he realized she was looking away. so we sat down next to emmanuel macron. it's almost like high school of the want to talk to him. they did the class photo just before the session and that was on board is a lot of leaders tried to avoid mom and installment, the saudi prince. -- mohammad bin salman, the saudi prince. their politics being played during the general session of the g20. guy: is this g20 and endorsement of multilateralism, i.e., and --ectively multiply multilateral meeting that happening here. the problem is the real headlines are being made in bilateral. a bilateral event or a event?

andnue to soften critically if consumer spending .hows any sign of slowing today, liz young and michael mckee with you, with the broader picture. things that could affect the fed. wait are going to have to for the minutes to actually see what they said, but at this moment, they are watching and don't really know what's going to happen. we've seen interest rates rise, and at the same time, housing has slowed. do they draw a connection? they haven't so far. but do they? so far, consumer spending has held up. is that because of the tax cut, or is that the cause we are just seeing a cyclical surge in consumer spending? we don't know how the season might be important for the fed view going into 2019. it's kind of hard to tell what they think now. -- they know is inflation unemployment rate continues to take lower. they did one thing change is their take on business fixed investment, moderating from a rapid pace earlier in the year. cuts,nd up having tax having businesses spend, what was your interpretation? they didn't talk about just the indicators they always watch. it wasn't just inflation, une

michael mckee now joins us. there are all these bilaterals that could be explosive.ch is the one that you are watching out for the most? is it trump-xi? mike: it is definitely trump-xi. this is the argentine's chance to be on the world stage. the g20 meeting is the least important thing happening at the g20 meeting, unfortunately. it is the various players who have come to town with different agendas. the president of the united states and the president of china will be the main act, but that does not happen until saturday night, after we have seen the rest of the leaders leave. the markets are going to have to wait until monday morning to react to that. maybe a 50/50 chance that the two could reach a deal. other deals may come into place here. we don't know of the president of the united states is going to meet with the president of russia, but trump-putin is a possibility. will they talk about ukraine? the saudi prince, the first g20 leader to arrive here, who will he meet with? will anybody really talk to him after what has gone on in recent weeks? we know that vl

thanks to bloomberg's michael mckee at the g20 summit all weekend. guy: volume like today. monday morning can be busy. we are trying to figure out which assets will move the most cease-fire.al trade here's what some of our guests have had to say. australiang like the dollar is an obvious favorite in that particular paradox. in terms of other asset classes, you are looking at those will be benefiting from the presumption of trade activity being more optimistic. the chinese equity market has suffered over the past few months. find co-option on the h&p would be a great way to take advantage of a positive outcome. the entry point is quite attractive. >> the reason being that is the -- thehere a majority chinese bank, chinese investment companies. big moves, that is probably the market. >> you do get a cease-fire and both sides will continue to talk, you will see a bit of a bounce. is not any cease-fires are joined communication from both sides, you could see a bit of a pullback on monday. guy: let's bring another voice into the mix, simon derrick joining us from the bank of new

michael mckee also joining us here.n the last 24 hours, rate hikes were priced out of the market for 2019, november or september. what does the boe do? mark: sit and wait. they have not voted yet and we don't know what will happen after that. if it is voted down, does theresa may stay, does she go? we have 134 days to go. the end of march, he have to have your decisions in place. there really isn't much for the bank of england to do except sit and wait as this plays out. david: i want to come back to you, anna, about the timeline. eu summit the 25th of november. do they have to vote in parliament affirmatively on this deal before then, and if so, when would we expect a vote and debate on parliament? >> beginning of december but i cannot stress enough a lot depends on whether theresa may lasts the next 48 hours. we will be watching to see whether 40 members of her party decide they want to launch a leadership challenge. then there will be this leadership challenge. november 25 is the day that we heard, the european commi

michael mckee in buenos aires. we will have more from the meeting.e. this is "bloomberg." ♪ i am a family man. i am a techie dad. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. importantll be an conversation after his speech, myer chairman powell speech, conversation with the vice chairman of the federal reserve system. i want to drive forward the data dependency into the meetings of 2019. look for that in the 6:00 hour on monday. looking forward to this conversation. xtraordinary day, the news flow, the challenges in washington of michael cohen. we do have breaking news in europe. francine: more breaking news on deutsche bank. we understand there are more police raids of the german bank offices and those started yesterday morning around 9:00 monday morning. 9:00 thursday morning. the latest is that a board office is said to be rated. -- raid

michael mckee is with us.ics and policy correspondent and joins us from buenos aires. the big question is whether we get a deal between trump and china. i suppose you have to did fine what a deal would look -- define what a deal would look like. just a roadmap ahead, some agreement to keep talking, a truce? all things could be possible. michael: all things could be possible and that is usually the way it is with donald trump, but the roadmap idea that two sides would refer a framework for negotiations and trump would hold off on raising rates -- tariffs further and increasing the rate to 25% at the end of the year. we don't know if that will happen. trump said he didn't think there was much chance of a deal at all and leaving the white house yesterday said we are close to a deal. i just don't know if i want to do it. both are here in buenos aires and will meet tomorrow night. matt: thanks very much. michael mckee on the ground, reporting in buenos aire argentina --buenos aires, argentina. president trump decid

gina martin adams a michael mckee, thank you. you can go to gtd go on your on thel -- g tv terminal. tech takes a beating and more the correction of started last month during apple taking it on the chin today. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is a much all right your bloomberg business flash. home depot raised its annual forecast and its quarterly earnings and revenue beat estimates. straight quarter that home depot's profit has been better than expected. amazon reportedly mannose today that it shows in new york in northern virginia for a second and third headquarters, according to the wall street journal, other cities make it major sites for the company to. the decision would and amazon's year-long search for supplementary headquarters to its existing base in seattle. its first expedition of performance after monsanto. one analyst says the company could do something big by merging the pharma unit with a rival or launch a major cost-cutting program. technology shares love the downne in the nasdaq 100 3% in the third straight negati

we had michael mckee with a charter earlier on saying that reserves are something that could potentially change. what is the likelihood of that? i think that in november we see no change whatsoever but there is a chance that in december it goes up less than the basis points, perhaps another 20 as we saw back in june, given the rising of the tech stocks. all right, let's talk midterms and politics. at 28 basiscurve points. if the democrats take the house, which seems to be the consensus for the moment, do people sell or buy bonds? shahid: kevin: -- shahid: this is broadly priced in to the asset markets, in our view. give or take the democrats taking the house and republicans keeping the senate, it shouldn't in itself have a huge impact on bonds. so the immediate aftermath, we won't see anything then, you are saying, but the come downn that might the pike might include the u.s. spending money it doesn't have. shahid: absolutely. this is currently the highest run rate of treasury, $225 billion from november onwards, fed unwinding redundancy. so, we do have a market that is being asked to su

miami to chinaom with michael mckee. every day, there is a new insertion into the chinese trade war. michael: the trade war will go on. a top chinese official has offered trade talks with the u.s., a longtime ally with resident asian thing says the chinese -- with president xi jinping says china will not be bullied and oppressed by imperialist powers. the bloomberg economics tracker shows it fell in october. imf says the ongoing trade war may reduce chinese growth by 0.6% next year and hit the u.s. by 0.2%. the global economy may take a hit from the trade war, but he says china will not devalue its currency in order to even things out. david: as you say, we will have this trade dispute tomorrow after the midterms are over. are the two connected? are the chinese and u.s. waiting for the midterms for president trump to meet with president xi nex this month? michael: there is a sense to that. no matter what happens in the midterms, trade is the president's prerogative. even a democratic congress cannot stop them from a trade

michael mckee and steve, great to see you.we stand in markets, what will no doubt be an interesting 72 hours and buenos aires -- in buenos aires. futures down. s&p futures off. nice three day rally at the beginning. the best in a month. not able to hold on, headline risk. european stocks down for 10th of 1%. dax underperforming. blame it on deutsche bank, hitting another record low as board members are drawn into the investigation by prosecutors. other asset classes. not a lot of movement. safe haven movement into the dollar. euro-dollar, down to 10th of 1%. inflation eased in europe last month. italian seeing a jump, not reflected in the italian market. vix elevated. 2-10 spread, flat, flat, flat. 10 year treading 3% rush holt. -- threshold. crude up -- down by 1.5%. it is not just trade. oil could be decided this weekend as president vladimir putin and the crown prince will be meeting. oil output in russia staying steady to the end of the year. reverberating. david: everybody is watching buenos aires for the g20 discussions.

vonnie: thanks to michael mckee in washington dc for his statements and marcus ashworth, bloomberg opinionsst. -- at 2:00 watch p.m. new york time, 7:00 p.m. london time. we have some breaking news. concerns that lloyd blankfein, former goldman sachs ceo, herent chairman, turns out was in a meeting set up by a malaysian businessmen and a formeranker who was partner, chairman of southeast asia, tim leistner, at the meeting in 2009, that blankfein met with a former malaysian prime minister. what is the consequence of this? met with thein former prime minister of malaysia, but there is something that is not quite right about this meeting. it, it isface of embarrassing. there's no legal exposure. meeting took place in november 2009, before goldman launched on this lucrative relationship funding1mdb. a relationship that turned into a scandal. so this looks bad in the rearview mirror, but at the time , there would have been no reason for lloyd blankfein, the ceo, to know that. his job is to be prime minister when he has the opportunity. president of -- at the center of this scandal, now looks muc

nejra: michael mckee in when osiris -- buenos aires. joining us is george buckley.tline from mike mckee over what might happen over the weekend. what sort of base case are you looking at? i know you have four different possible scenarios. george: the four different scenarios, three of them have probabilities. of between 30 and 35%. it gives you an idea of how anything is really possible here. the base case is that the u.s. continues and goes ahead with the increase in tariffs from january from 10% to 20%. there is the possibility that come upnd mr. trump with something that allows us to delay the further increase in tariffs that has been threatened. there is a possibility that that could be delayed. nejra: we have yet more data out of china pointing to the slowing growth that a lot of people have talked about for a while. china in a position at the moment to really have a strong negotiating and into the year-end and the start of 2019? george: possibly not. we are seeing china slowing because of various reasons. deleveraging, this move toward consumer spending rather

michael mckee, joining us from buenos aires at 4:39 in the morning.'m not sure if that means he stayed up late or got up early, but we are grateful. let's get the first word news with desley humphrey. desley: governor mark carney says the bank of england is prepared for the worst possible brexit and the u.k. faces that steepest slump since world war ii if it crashes out of the european union without a deal. u.k. government and central have warned the economy could be as much as 11% smaller under brexit compared with remaining in the eu, but under the banks projection, the decline would be 8%e rapid with gdp shrinking in your and property prices plunging one third under a worse case scenario. it is notlear, sufficient to guarantee an economic outcome. thetary policy can offset hits to productivity and supply the brexit could entail. jinpingpresident xi says the global economy is at a crossroads as he prepares to meet his american counterpart. speaking in madrid, he said the world must side with supporting the global system because failure to do so woul

for more, we go to michael mckee. michael: thank you. we are joined by canada's finance minister.his day that people have been waiting for for a long time. the nafta agreement finally signed and can go for ratification sometime in the next year and perhaps go into effect. there were questions until just whether primebout minister trudeau would show up and join the signing. his body language suggested he is still not happy. is there something canada is missing and would like to see that it didn't get. mentioned the body language. certainly, we are happy with the signing of the new agreement. we wanted to make sure we had stability and confidence in canada, the united states, and mexico. but right through until we signed and on a continuing basis, we are going to need to on tariffs. we see that as important, obviously, for canadian businesses, but also better for all of our countries. that's an ongoing issue. we are in the middle of a negotiation. we are in a discussion to deal with it. this is something i think all parties are looking at how we can move forward, but negotiations ta

michael mckee is amongst the great and the good.international economics correspondent, in buenos aires for the latest. what are analysts saying about the possibility of a u.s. deal on trade saturday night? are we all overly optimistic? well, i don't know if we all are. a lot of people are thinking maybe we don't get anything out of it. hard to tell until they get into the room, but it is a major subplot. the most important things happening at the g20 summit have nothing to do with the g20 summit. it is the trump and xi meeting that captures the world's attention. saturday night, you will have to wait until the summit is over. trump and putin, will they meet, will they talk about ukraine and geostrategic decisions to be made there? saudiad bin salman, the prince is the first of the g20 leaders to arrive here. it is a rehabilitation core we are being told that how will the g20 deal with him? --far, the only person who's who has said he will meet with him his vladimir putin. the last those two had met ahead of an opec meeting, they sen

let's bring in michael mckee to put it all together for us. let's start with brexit. the pound. it's been an interesting, long day for people who have been following brexit. 585 page document that nobody journalist and then everybody read the highlights of it and got up and said they didn't like it. that was basically the reception. , nowcabinet members out she has to replace them including the brexit secretary. one of the people being speculated about as a potential successor is dominic rob. want to topple a conservative leader, you send a letter to what's called the 1922 committee, saying you are in favor of a no-confidence vote, given that they need 15% of the conservative lawmakers, that would be 48. they have not gotten to 48 yet, but there are number people who have suggested that in the coming days we could see leadership challenge to theresa may. taylor: you clever -- you cover global central banks. yesterday the markets were pricing in a rate hike for the boe in november of 2019, this morning we woke up and that's been pushed out to march 2020. what does it m

joining us now with the preview of the meetings in buenos aires is michael mckee. as not slept in two days. mark -- walk us through the events we are going to be watching over the next few days. michael: unfortunately for argentina, the g20 meeting is the least important meeting happening at the g20 meeting. it is all of the meetings happening on the sidelines. president trump and president xi jinping. the president with his auto tariffs tweets, is that a negotiating ploy or can they find a way to ratchet down trade tensions? you would think so because it is not good for either country. we will have to wait and see what comes of that. another big meeting the president with vladimir putin. the kremlin confirming they will meet on saturday. will they talk about ukraine? what will donald trump say? the third big meeting is vladimir putin and the saudi crown prince. oil andy talk about reached some kind of understanding about production levels ahead of next week's opec meeting? that could move markets as well. on top of that, we have the nafta signing in theory or frida

we welcome michael mckee and still with us is keith parker, ubs head of equity strategies -- u.s.rategies. you have to take a step back and wait and see what happens going forward. because low comment about it taking time is humbly the truest thing. even if xi and trump got together and when us at us -- in when us heiress -- in buenos and said they are going to negotiate a deal, they have made no progress at all. there are going to be some false dogs along the way. alix: companies dealing with supply chain issues, higher pricing cost and whether or not they can pass that cost along, do you feel like the margin issue has been factored into where we are? a growth perspective in terms of earnings, we estimate what is currently 1%posed and implemented is a to 2% hit to earnings with effects from the dollar and oil which have been relatively stable potentially providing an incremental 2%. if you think from a margin perspective, what is price, the market is down almost mid to high single digits since october, a lot is priced in. what we will see underneath the surface is relative moves.

for more takeaways, let's bring in michael mckee. what distortions aside, the breadth of the hiring across so many sectors is pretty impressive. it was an impressive jobs report, and there is nothing to say about it except it keeps the fed on track to raise rates in december if they want to. they will probably not do it because it is a non-press conference meeting. if you want to go inside it and look to see either sides weakness or strengths, you can do that. one thing about the wage gains, there was a real drop-off in wages in october because of hurricane harvey, so this was an easy comparison one, which helped push it up a little bit. the actual gain on a month-to-month basis was down from september. still, 3.1% is impressive. let me show you why, and why this might cause some arguments about the fed. the blue line is the eci, and the yellow line is today's average hourly earnings. as you can see, both of them are up significantly and at 3.1%, both of them, for the month. the white line is unit labor costs. so we are seeing people

david: let's bring in michael mckee, who really studies these things carefully.rom morgan stanley is also with us. big issue, as it has been for some time is gasoline, based on energy prices. we saw a rise in the last month. fuel oil prices were up by 3.7%, gasoline prices up by 3%. over the year, gasoline is up 60%. that is the big mover in the index. it is all coming from gasoline. other prices appear to be in control. by .4%.down on the year food rose a little bit. a 10 paper percent on a year-over-year basis. there is really no inflation at this point that is not driven by gasoline. alex knows well next month that will reverse. pretty ironic we are talking about the price of gasoline but it also illustrates why the fed like score and not headline. mike: even the things that you would worry about, particularly owners equivalent rent, substitute for housing, just up .2% over the month, still under control. there doesn't seem to be a brick at underway in inflation that the fed has to worry about. they are concerned it could quickly particularly with wages rising

can't say enough about "failure to adjust," a superb overview of american trade in our future and michael mckeeruskin and we want to talk about the fed and we look at the automobile industry. given time is scheduled to be with us as well. on radio, we address -- readjust the american economy. with stephen stanley. please they with is worldwide. this is bloomberg. ♪ taylor: this is "bloomberg surveillance," i'm taylor riggs. google runs the risk of pesky fines from the european union areeu consumer groups accusing them of using tools to track user locations. as said they will file complaints of national ringleaders and google says it will read the report to see if there's anything you can use. the world politicians have been turning against saudi crown prince mohammad bin salman since the murder of journalist jamal khashoggi last month the private capital made up its mind long before that. bloomberg learned growing number of saudi's have been trying to move money out of the kingdom or have drawn up plans to leave. that was triggered by a crackdown on corruption the year ago. and that's your bloo

. >> 20 is now is michael mckee.asset class it would benefit but whichever you look at, it is not going to have a pickup unless you get the news on the trade front. is no reason necessarily. it is hard to believe you could price anymore negative news into the markets. it is hard to see if there will be a surprise. we didn't think there would be much other than maybe an agreement to talk more. moment, you have analyst at deutsche bank saying profound and long-lasting adverse impact if we saw what currently washington is floating between china and the u.s. >> they want to buy high-tech materials but administration does not want to let them. are a lot of restrictions or this would just expand those. it is saying to the chinese, one of your requests isn't going to be honored. it makes it that much harder to negotiate. >> thank you. staying on top of all of the developments. we are looking at u.s. stocks in the red down by two and a quarter percent. ofstal join us at the top the next hour to give us his take on what is dr