michael mckee, your reading of things. m the price action come equity futures slightly negative. the dollar bit weaker. for the fed, is that light still green on november 3? michael: i think we would come down on that side of it. you get a reasonable number for the last two months combined. also the employment rate will be significant. they are looking for full employment around 4% and now all the way down to 4.8%. we are not that far away. tom: what was the live going to .8%? let me give you -- michael: let me give you a couple of other numbers that stand out. when we talk about why the number came in weak, it looks like it could be delta related. we saw the payrolls for leisure and hospitality coming week this month compared with what they had in the past, increasing just 74,000. they were down 41,000 last month. employment and food services and drinking places were up just 26,000. it looks like we took a pause in the hiring for a second month during september. jonathan: is it typical -- tom: is it typical you missed the

we've got to jump to michael mckee now because we've got really important data, then lagarde. is beneath the headline data on this gdp number that has your attention? michael: a lot of people haven't focused on the idea that in the inventories, they have been declining for three months in a row. that is a subtraction from gdp. if the supply chain issues are continuing, then manufacturers are running down their inventories. tom: this sounds like jan hatzius 101. how important is domestic final sales away from all of that mumbo-jumbo? michael: we are hoping that is what keeps the economy afloat, along with business investment, but we are not sure how much it translates because business orders have gone up, but shipments have not gone up as fast for current gdp. tom: michael mckee does such a good job of parsing this out. it is much harder than you think in real time to do this. we are making jokes and all of this, and mckee is actually looking at it. we will do that for you before we go to christine lagarde. it is just the oddest thing. it is not like it is to america's. it is l

now we will migrate to economic data, coming up here with michael mckee.ortant, ever made more important by the 2% gdp. 4.2% statistic for morgan stanley for the quarter that we are in now. we will get smarter with michelle meyer from bank of america, as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress, and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com. tom: very good friday to you. kailey leinz is here for jonathan ferro. i believe he is in around, i am not -- is in rome, i am not sure. lisa abramowicz is with us. michael mckee, as we roll out economic data, am i right that this is more important than the gdp look yesterday? michael: it gives us the latest

francine: so handsome come our michael mckee. [laughter] leaders from the world's biggest economies are gathering in rome for their first in prison g20 summit since the pandemic. climate goals will likely dominate the agenda for spoke with the european commission president ursula von der leyen about where we stand on emission goals. >> much is on track from the pairs agreement and the goals we set ourselves that are necessary to fight climate change. we see now ahead of cop-26 the commitment's by the different countries. we are not there yet. we are not on the right track. we have to be much more ambitious. we have to show more leadership really to transform our economy and the way we consume, and it is in our common interest because we know science is very clear on that. francine: annmarie hordern, or bloomberg washington correspondent, is on the ground in rome with the latest. just in terms of timeline, the leaders show up in rome for the g20, and a lot of them will make their way to glasgow for cop-26. they have to talk about

michael mckee is looking at a surprise jump in sales. we will break down goldman's' earnings and opening borders to the vaccinated travelers. plus eco-data. i was shopping, i was an early indicator. michael mckee looking into the deeper numbers. michael: your country thanks you. trying to think about the differences between competence and retail sales, alex greenspan said we watch what consumers do, not what they say. it's probably gasoline prices driving the negative views of the economy that we've seen, but has also helped to boost retail sales because they are in dollar values. last month they were revised hired to .9%. this was supposed to be a negative number. instead, we rise .7% as americans go to the store. they also paid more money, which is interesting. the retail control group is what goes into gdp. again, revised higher. both are positive. import prices, this is where oil comes into it. last month there was a decline. this month import prices went up .4% but almost primarily all due to the higher price of oil. the empire manu

michael mckee has all of the details. michael: the good news is business investment is rising but overall durable goods orders fell 5.4% largely because of jet aircraft. and you cannot get cars, so not as many orders being placed. this is a picture of the problem in the u.s. economy. this is a supply chain snarled. the white line is business orders. they are up to record levels at this point. this is shipments. they are ordering but they cannot get the goods. that's a real question for the economy going forward. tomorrow, we get gdp numbers. we will be looking to see if companies are able to sell goods, to get the goods they need. this is business investment up to the third quarter. if it keeps rising, that should be good news. there is a feeling we will see a lower than expected gdp number this quarter. third quarter ended at the end of september and people are not sure where we are. you look at this and you have to say things are not too bad. the question is how wall street takes it. the gdp we have had a sense the pand

michael mckee, retail sales looking good.el: i will see her headline and raise her a little bit. retail sales of .7%, we were expecting a .2% decline for retail sales in september. august came in more disappointing .7% gain. it has been revised up 2.9%. -- up to .9%. a forecast was for a .5% gain and rose 2.6% in august. particularly good news on retail sales so far. motor vehicles, oddly go up 7.8% . this is a weird number because, actually it goes up half percent, but we were expecting a decline because sales fell to 12 million in the month. other big news, electrics and appliance, health care and personal stores. gasoline stations up 1.8%. we are seeing gasoline prices rise. food surfaces and drinking places, the only service category and retail sales and also highly discretionary, of .3% on the month. people cut back but are still going out and spending some money. the other numbers that came in, retail came in and it is characterized as strong. one of the reasons it fell was a longer delivery time index. factories in new

know, what we need to know, with bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent michael mckeewhere is everybody? where are the workers that we need to fill for the job openings we know exist? peter: maybe we need to ask -- michael: maybe we need to ask an astronomer because the numbers are a black hole. we have not only stalled out in closing the gap, but this is the rate at which we would have added more people to the employment roles had dependent not happened. so we still have a pretty big gap to fill. it didn't change all that much with this report at 6.8 million people, depending on how you are counting it. they are not there to hire. we've got the jobs open, but we don't have the people there. take a look at some good news in this report. it wasn't all bad. one thing we did see was a rise in hours worked of 0.2%. that tells you at least the overall economy is not rolling over because those who were at work were working harder. interestingly, hours worked did not go up for people in the leisure and hospitality industry. a little bit odd, maybe because people were staying

michael mckee is with us now. ghlight for me, the employment cost index and how high it is right now. michael: that caught everyone's eye. you said amazon and apple, there were questions of the problems were transitory. that term belongs to the inflation hawks. there is reason to be concerned. the fastest pace on record, that pushed us up to a 4.2% increase in the annual rate, which is also a record. these data only go back to 2000 or so because they changed the way they do it, but this is a 30-year high for these numbers. is there inflation and reason to be concerned? we just got the university of michigan numbers, and there isn't much change in what people thought. the rate for the five-year stays at 4.8%. for the one-year inflation rate -- flip that around. 4.8 for one-year and 2.9. the michigan survey is rated as the worst inflation predictor. you go back to what ira jersey was saying, the markets, the best predictor is starting to come down. why? you look at what is going on out there with the other numbers th

michael mckee turns his attention from the cpi data to this. mike, what are we expecting? l: i've been trying to figure out a way to work the phrase "based, the final frontier -- space, the final frontier" into a hit but it has not worked out. just did. alix: could be smoother. michael: we are waiting on the fit -- everyone in line with the view that we could see a tapering starting. jay powell did say in his press conference and say it was likely they would suit be announcing a taper. we will see what they said about the outlook for inflation and whether or not they think it will get too high. right now it looks like it will bring us back to blue origin. alix: what is the language we need to look out for just in case they say this, that might mean something else? michael: not a lot this time. alix: you are not building up the excitement. michael: not building up the excitement. this is one of those situations. any discussion about regulation. the news came out last night that randal quarles whose last day is today will not be handling that post anymore. it will not be bill

jonathan: michael mckee on softer data on the housing side. higher prices going to -- we have caught up with goldman sachs's leader in london. also in london we have con up with boris johnson. john micklethwait of bloomberg news sitting down with the british leader. take a listen. p.m. johnson: china is a gigantic part of heart economic life and will be for our lifetimes. that does not mean we should be naive and the way we look at our critical natural infrastructure. you mentioned nuclear power, you mentioned 5g technology, those are legitimate concerns for any government that many governments have. i've said this many times. i am no sinophobe. john: you think you do are the last sinophile in the cabinet? p.m. johnson: china is a great country. john: what about wind power? p.m. johnson: you would have to look at what was defined as strategic or critical. our trading relationship with china, in spite of all of the difficulties, in spite of all of the angry conversations were difficult conversations about the dalai lama or hong kong, we will co

michael mckee, thank you. shortages of natural gas in europe and asia boosting demand for oil.hat deepening the supply deficit. copper past $10,000 a ton, the highest since june. where do we go from here? does this continue? eddie van der walt giving us a sense of what is happening. normally i would take this as a sign the global economy is on a strong trajectory. is that the right way to read this? but the energy read across is very confusing. eddie: there is not a story in the global economy right now i cannot draw back to the commodities complex. banks are doing well. well, inflation is high because commodity prices are high. you ask whether this is a bullish story. i think we are seeing demand destruction happening in a lot of spaces. zinc smelters scaling back production because natural gas prices are so high. it comes back to commodities. does it keep going? i think we have got to worry it does because if it does, even though demand is not as strong as we but like, that tells us we are setting up for a longer period of cost inflation which is not something the central ban

with economic data, here is michael mckee. ael: let's take a look at the numbers. 326,000, which is a decline from 362,000. the first time we have fallen in four weeks. the forecast was 348,000. good news from claims numbers ahead of the jobs report for the month. we will look for any kind of change we might see in the forecast for payrolls tomorrow. we did see a change overnight as the adp numbers got incorporated into the release. we are now looking at 500,000 jobs created instead of 488,000. maybe this will be a reason for optimism. jonathan: the right kind of downside surprise on claims. yields higher by a basis point. equities are firmer, up .9% on the s&p. payrolls friday, 500,000 the estimate. michael: whether we get 500,000 or not, something that range will probably be good enough for the fed. they are looking for improvement over the 235,000 we got in august. one of the biggest changes is the drop in the number of total people getting jobless benefits. that has fallen in the week that followed the jobless week. it was

michael mckee an upside surprise. michael: a nice change from adp.ts will probably react nicely to this one. 568,000 jobs in september. that is higher than the 430,000 anticipated by economists surveyed by bloomberg. 63,000 in small businesses, one hundred 15,000 in medium businesses, and large businesses adding 390,000. manufacturing, 49,000. that is one of the biggest numbers in quite some time for manufacturing from adp. service providing, 466,000. that would encompass the leisure and hospitality range, which they see as 226,000. a report like this would be well received by the markets and probably by the fed. as you remove her, jay powell said if we've got anything that is decent, the fed could go ahead and taper. so with a forecast for 488,000 jobs on friday, 500 some would be a better result. jonathan: not moving off the back of this, i have to say. equity futures down 44 on the s&p, basically where we were going into the print. on nasdaq 100 futures, we are -1.68%. bonds are higher, 1.5432%. the dollar still stronger. euro-dollar which -- euro

michael mckee has moderated the iif meetings. what does clarida do, what does georgieva do in the bright lights? thank you for giving me this opportunity. you know i've got a somewhat special relationship with her. she is an esteemed bulgarian phd. she's got a ps factor of zero. i am going to stop the show and go managing director, this is about evidence. is there any lurking evidence, or do you have full confidence the long firm -- the law firm or others aren't going to find further evidence. jonathan: if they put out a business report right now and you saw -- would you believe in it? tom: i think you have to look at the executive process and say you've got research integrity at any institution, whether it is boj, imf, world bank, whatever. are the executives meddling with those research projects? it is as clear as that. tom: the research -- jonathan: the research should be unvarnished, and i am not sure it is anymore. that is the problem. tom: they have to sell integrity going forward. jonathan: i hope you get that conversation

we want to get to bloomberg's michael mckee with a roundup of all the numbers you need to know. spend, apparently. michael: your country thanks you. they hold onto this debate about inflation or reflation, because inflation is the story today. we are looking at the personal income numbers. they come in better-than-expected, up 0.8% for the month after a revised incline of 0.1% in the month of july. these are august numbers. the spending numbers come in a little bit at 0.4% -- 0.8% for spending, sorry. getting confused here. here's the bad news. the bad news is the spending numbers are not adjusted for inflation. adjusted for inflation, they were only up 0.4%. in july, there was a 0.5% decline. for the quarter, we are seeing a very weak consumer spending number, and people are marking down their gdp forecast because of that today. the other number that comes out in this release is the pce price index, which matters to the fed. i forgot i through this in here. this is wages, and this is transfer payments. you can see how the economy has shifted. wages are still rising, up 0.5%, but

with your data, here is mike mckee. michaele are not the inflation numbers jerome powell was looking for. cpi up .3% -- up more than .3%. at this point it is a .4% gain. .3% in august. over the last 12 months the all items index is up 5.4% before seasonal adjustment. food and shelter rose, contributing more than half of the all items index, the decks for food at home up 1.2% on the month. as for the cpi core, we are coming in at .2% gain, which was what was anticipated. it does not change the court rate, it stays at .4%. we are getting more inflation. it is not going away but it is showing up in the headline numbers more than the core numbers. jonathan: i want to get through the market action, up 10 on the s&p, positive .2%. pretty choppy. 30's are still firm, yields lower by two basis points. the lift in the front end, we are up about two basis points, 35 basis points or so. the five-year up a couple of basis points. euro-dollar, 1.1556. up .2%. mike mckee, your thoughts on what this changes and will not change for the federal

us an understanding of what we've gotten, bloomberg's economics and policy correspondent mike mckee. michaelhere you got too low, here you got too high. the headline the burgers up to 5.4%, while the core stays flat at 4%. we will have that argument that goes on between the raphael bostics and richard claridas. the idea is you put this together with this, and maybe that means they can go ahead and taper. you mentioned food and housing. those were the two biggest components that accounted for more than half the rise in the cpi this month. food and home in particular up 1.2%. it is really rising quickly. bacon was up 19%. that's my favorite. that is going to be a lot. i put this in here, gasoline prices were up significantly as well, but natural gas is what everybody is talking about. i know guy this is roughly double what it was in august. we will see that continue. used cars, we thought they might go back up again. they continue to go down, and apparel prices, especially for women's suits, fall. so i guess alix and everybody else is still wearing sweatpants to work because of women's dresses

the big number we are going to be focusing on, bloomberg's mike mckee. michael: these numbers aren't going to change anybody's mind about tomorrow because they come after the survey period, but they are reassuring in this way. we saw jobless claims for the last month including during the survey week rising, and that wasn't what people expected to happen. now they have gone back down again, so that is reassuring that the labor market continues to heal. this is the total number of people who have been getting benefits. that is the cliff they had with the extended federal benefits went away, so all of these people not getting benefits anymore, there's a feeling that they will end up in the labor market, and we may see relatively strong job gains. here's what we are expecting for tomorrow. there has been a change in the troubled -- in the total number. we are at 500,000 now. it was 488,000 yesterday. that would be roughly double the august number, and that should be good enough to keep the fed on track for tightening. unemployment expected to fall a tick as the part

mike mckee, walk us through the numbers. michaelas we know, adp is not a very accurate predictor in terms of numbers, but it does give us a sense of direction. it sets us up for friday's payroll report. adp comes in better, 568,000. you can see that is better news. better news from adp manufacturing, from the ism manufacturing. a little bit lower for services, the yellow line in terms of the ism, but still relatively high. all those people who fell off the jobless roles when the extra federal benefits stopped, theoretically they should be looking for jobs. here's what we are going to look for on friday. it has come down a lot, 488,000 come up that is still about twice what we got in the month of august. 450,000 would be the number comparable to adp, and unemployment down a tick. no changes in the participation rate. here's the bottom line. does the fed continue with its taper? jay powell was asked that at his last news conference. here's what he had to say. "for me, it would not take a knockout super strong report. it would take a r

mike mckee, walk us through the numbers. what can we learn? michaellooking at small business companies around the country, they are getting depressed by the fact that they can't find workers. we saw a big drop in small business confidence. it fell to its lowest since march in the month of september, and that is because, as you guys were just talking about, they can't find workers. their six-month outlook isn't any better. things really looking down for these guys because they are having trouble finding people to fill the demand for labor, which means they are starting to raise prices. you look at the number of companies raising prices, raising salaries at a record level, and as you can see, the number of people with job openings is at a record level. we are just below a record level in terms of how many expect to raise wages. you still see pressures building from the small business community in terms of not finding workers, but having to raise prices to do that. it is something we are going to be looking forward to hearing about from members of the fe

mckee is looking into the details. stronger numbers when it comes to consumer confidence and new home sales. what was your take away from it? michaelthe interesting goof up in our graphics here, where the chart i wanted to show you went away. but basically, we saw earlier today your over your home prices up 19.7%. the new homes number that just cannot a few months ago, new homes prices over the year up 18.7%. two things that should feed into inflation and have some people worried about the 1970's and that kind of inflation. but the thing is, in 1983, they changed the way they calculate home prices in the cpi, and that changed everything. we don't get that kind of big jump anymore. that is something to keep in mind as we go forward. it is a concern, higher home prices, but it is not going to be the 1970's. we will see in the rest of the data comes out this week. last month was the widest ever, and that suggests that we could see a cut in third-quarter gdp. we will get that on thursday. 2.6% is the estimate, the consensus estimate, but some on wall street seeing it higher than that. the atlanta fed says only 0.5%. friday, we get the

and policy correspondent mike mckee has had a little while now to dig into the details to form a picture. what do you think the fed things about the data it now has? michaelhave to tell you, i have no idea. where have all the workers gone? why are they not coming back to work? is it the delta variant? are they going to come back this month? we won't know when the fed next meets. 194,000 jobs created or get the headline definitely a disappointment. we did see a big revision up to the august and july numbers, so we are seeing more people at work than the headline would have you figure, but it is still not what people were expecting. on the other hand, this is not what people were expecting, a drop before printed present -- a drop to 4.8%. the labor force shrank during the month, unusual, especially since the long-term benefits ended early in the month. you would think some of those people would be looking for work, even if they didn't find jobs yet. these two numbers. 61 point 6% is the participation rate for the month of september. the problem is it needs to go up , not down. it was forecast to go up. we did see a 4.6% rise in average hourly earnings, whic