with your economic data, here is michael mckee. ael: we are seeing a couple of numbers ahead of retail sales. 31.9, one point up from the month of november. that is good news. strength in manufacturing in this area. import prices coming up .7%, that is less than last month. take out petroleum and it is up 7% as well. it is not just oil and oil prices have been going down. retail sales, we are up just .3% -- last month it was 7%. the control group down .1%, last month up 1.2%. we do not know why this is. it is possible it has something to do with omicron, although the omicron story was not out until the end of november. it may be people pushed sales earlier in the year because they were expecting shortages. this brings down the growth path for the second quarter or the fourth quarter but it does not necessarily made terrible news. we will have to figure that out. take a quick look at some of the components. we knew motor vehicle sales were weak during the month. electronics and appliance stores , that is always surprising at the holi

mckee. good morning. michaelchange in nonfarm payrolls comes in over half the level we anticipated, 210,000. that is a real surprise. that will cause some head scratching at the fed. what we do about that? the unemployment rate dropped significantly, 4.2%, down from 4.6%. let me quickly check. i suspect the civilian labor force, it did rise 594,000 people. the household survey shows over one million jobs, 1.1 million employed, where unemployment drops 542,000. a good news story on the unemployment rate but it does not match up with what is going on on the establishment survey. 210,000. 31,000 of our manufacturing payrolls. average hourly earnings come in later. .3%. average weekly hours is 34.8. the one everyone wants to see is the labor force participation rate. as you can imagine, it does pick up significantly to 61.8 from 61.6. the estimate was 61.7. the net payroll revisions for the month and i will let you check the markets, september revised up 67,000 to 370 never thousand -- the 379,000 and october revised

michael mckee with us with the state of the american labor economy. my where jerome powell is worried about wage inflation. what you see? michael: we are looking for the claims numbers. here we go. 206,000. that is not what the market was expecting at this point. the issue is it is very hard to seasonally adjusted target the holiday season. you will get these -- to seasonally adjust during the holiday season. you will get these kinds of numbers. the other big numbers, housing starts are up 11.8%. are we on fire as they would say for housing starts? building permits are up 3.6%, giving you the impression they will continue rising. 1,000,600 ever did -- 1,679,000 annual rate for housing starts. that is up from the prior month. a significant boost the housing. hard for me to know why because the weather -- it is better than expected so may be on a seasonally adjusted basis. this is the time of year where you think you might see a slow down. the philadelphia fed down to 15.4 from 39. a significant drop on the philly fed. i do not have the breakdown of the

tom: michael mckee, one more observation if you have the correct numbers. l: i have the correct numbers. the four week moving average is 252,000, that is a job of about -- that is a drop of about 21,000. we are seeing claims drop off. jonathan: great work as always. payrolls tomorrow, tom. the median estimate 546,000. tom: the theme this week has been uncertainty. one of the best people we know to measure uncertainty is the gentleman out of the wisconsin complex. michael darda joins us. happy 39th. you mix in the stock market synthesis with wonderful economics. i want to start with the animal spirit that links the markets to our economy. what does our nominal gdp look like forward? michael: it looks incredible going into the fourth quarter. we have tracking estimates pushing 10% for real gdp poorly annualized in q4. the pmi data get your date would've been consisted with at least a 5% real gdp handle for you for. i think it will be stronger than that. with high inflation we have nominal gdp running well into the double digits. this is a hot economy, but mark

with your economic data, here is michael mckee. ael: remember when we were surprised by the 199,000 reading? 184,000 is the reading for last week, which is rather stunning. lisa: record low. jonathan: it is a record -- michael: it is a record low it looks like, lisa, thanks for jumping in. 199,000 continuing claims. that is nothing. strengthen the labor market. i am sure there is some explanation for this that has to do with holidays. kailey's honeymoon, all kinds of things. maybe tom is out filing for jobless claims now. this is kind of crazy. last week the number was 267,000 -- 227,000, sorry in a revised level. it is not the record. i am looking at the numbers. lisa: correct me. jonathan: september's -- michael: september 6, 1969. you are still recovering from woodstock the month before. lisa: i remember. michael: if you remember you are not there. lisa: i am 85. jonathan: we are down 17 on the s&p. tom definitely does not remember at. if you have to go back to the 1960's, this is not population adjusted, is it? for the current p

matt: thank you for joining us, michael mckee, walking us through the fed decision.ll ahead, with president biden's economic plan stalled in the senate, we will talk cecilia rouse, chair of the white house council of economic advisors, on the changes ahead for the economy. we have also seeing headlines across, the senate has passed a bill to take action on china in the weaker situation. that will go to the president's desk. this is bloomberg. ♪ joe: greetings to our tv and radio audiences worldwide. we have an important guest at this time. breaking news at the top of the hour with regard to the timeline on the build back better plan. i am joined in the studio by cecilia rouse, chair of the white house council of economic advisors. thank you for being with us at this important time. i want to start by asking you about this breaking news and the timeline for build back better, the president's social spending plan. a lot of people saw this moving into 2022 with this endless debate we've been seeing. does this put the plan in any jeopardy, create different than what you

michael mckee has more. you think that is what we are seeing? ll the rumor, buy the new situation? michael: i wish i knew. i would be a really successful fund manager. you can probably put it down to a little bit of everything. we know inflation is high and the fed will do something. i do not think the markets are totally fixated on that. they will be tomorrow at 2:00. the first thing the markets want to know is what is the fed going to be doing about tapering. the consensus is $30 billion a month, we will see if that happens. that would get them out by march. inflation, they have been behind the curve. how high is inflation going to go and for how long? the dot plot, what does that mean for the fed rate increases? when do they start moving and how far do they go? guy: how sensitive is the u.s. economy to any form of tightening? michael: that is a lot of quest -- that is an interesting question a lot of people have tried to answer and i've a lot of good information from everyone at the vet. -- at the fed. the economy is running pretty strong. it

michael mckee leading our coverage.ng us with a chart, her take on it. >> we just heard from dana peterson. i want to put that into some perspective because we know sales are booming across the board. compare that to a five-year chart where we look at the trend line. it's moving in a big way. the question is is the momentum waning because as dana mentioned stimulus effect coming down. tom: we've got a trend, it pandemic, recovery and then a pop. is that all the fiscal pop. >> this has everything to do with the savings rate. essentially you have this major dip in 2020 where everyone is holding onto their funds and then this major pop ahead of this huge trendline. the question comes down to the savings rate which is recovering from the highest in history. even higher than the great depression era. now it's coming back down to earth. the question is do we see this move for retail sales. >> we drive to the outlook release this morning. really diving into this state of retail. can there be a repeater retail and 22 like we sa

jonathan: we will look at the market reaction, get to michael mckee, and then get to the head of u.s.cial market economies -- financial market economists. your s&p on the week, potentially the biggest week of gains going back to february. advancing 0.3% on the s&p. there is some dollar strength out there. euro-dollar -0.2%. yields are higher on the long end by just about a basis point on tends to 1.56 60%. on twos, 0.713%. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, alongside kailey leinz and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your inflation data is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast busine

i was talking to michael mckee -- jonathan: how do we respond to downside surprise? if we get one?lisa: great question. do people pushback or say that the fed will stay the course, because right now, even if you get a downside surprise, you are getting higher prices at the grocery store, at the gas station, wherever you go, affecting consumer confidence. i do not think anything will really push them off course unless it is a dramatic downside surprise, which would be bad news all around. jonathan: we went from cpi wednesday to cpi friday. does that work? lisa: i think it is fabulous. you have to do something a little bit more, like a cpi consortium or something. jonathan: i will work on it. futures up 14. big print not -- big print, big number, coming in a couple hours. crude rallying 0.6% to 71.34. the euro-dollar negative again, down 0.2%. the euro-dollar 1.1267. lisa: the notes for why we have seen such a persistent dollar strength in fascinating. we will talk about that throughout the show. 8:30 am, we will get a big number. we have been talking about it all week. the u.s. cpi

michael mckee also joining us.he market reaction to the fed implies that the fed is still, on balance, still dovish relative to expectations, relative to where we are in this cycle, relative to the inflation narrative we are talking about. does the market reaction till us that the fed is still behind the curve? michael m: that is going to depend on your view on inflation. there is a camp that says inflation is going to stay high, maybe even accelerate. that puts the fed the hind the curve because it takes a while for policy to get into the economy. others buy the jay powell line that we are going to see inflation fade as energy prices come down and the reopening problems we have had start to fade into 2022, so the fed will be able to raise rates at a fast enough pace to stay on track. alix: that is the perfect scenario. you are looking at growth that holds up while the fed is able to tamp down inflation. that is like me winning the lottery. do you think the fed can actually do that? michael k: it is possible. there

alix: bloomberg's michael mckee and ira jersey, we appreciate your time today.ome breaking news for you, the supreme court is leaving the texas six-week abortion ban in force for now. they do say abortion providers can challenge that texas law. we want to bring you the latest on this bloomberg law's kimberly robinson. walk us through this decision and it means. kimberly: the court gave the abortion providers who are challenging texas' six week abortion ban a narrow way to continue with their lawsuit in federal court, but they did not strike down the law. instead, they left it for the trial court to consider in the first instance. alix: what happens now? if you are living in texas, what do you do? kimberly: if you are living in texas, for all intents and purposes, roe v. wade is still not the law of the land, and you are subject to this six-week abortion ban. the supreme court did encourage the trial court to work rapidly through this litigation to resolve the issue as fast as it can, and there's all indications that the district court will do that, but for now,

bloomberg's vincent cignarella and bloomberg's michael mckee join us now. thanks for joining. vincent, do you buy the dollar dominance? vincent: yes i do. i don't see a reason why we should stop. there are two arguments going forward. one, the virus dissipates and everyone goes back to work. that puts the fed on a faster trajectory course to raise rates. the second, as the virus dominates, things shut down again and you buy the dollar on the haven trade, so i don't see a reason to sell. dani: how much of a divergence are we starting to see between the fed and other central banks? michael: if you leave out some of the emerging markets that have been raising rates because they are trying to tamp down inflation, you see a small amount of divergence among the majors, except for the bank of japan. next month is going to be critical because all three are meeting -- next week is going to be critical because all three are meeting. the fed is the only one at this point that people are worried about because they are starting to think the fed is going to be raising rates. i totally agree

here's mike mckee. michael: good morning.were trying to figure out exec you where the numbers come out, but they do add more jobs than we had in the prior month from adp. last month was 400 something. they have now revised it to 571. it is hard to tell because they come back and significant revise it. 534,000 for the adp employment change, which is better than the forecast of 520 5000, and it does support the idea that we saw some improvement in september. a lot of analysts inking the november numbers has gotten better, and that will support the fed in its efforts to move toward tapering a low bit more quickly because now they have enough people who have the jobs. jonathan: no big moves on the back of these numbers. yields still higher at the front end by three basis points on twos. on tens, yields up to about 1.48%. tom: it is a different feel than it was two days ago. i know you are going to dive in and look at the subsections of adp, and we go over this every months, but more than any other month, i am tilted to tenant lik

mckee. he's got the key things we need to know about the week ahead. michaelf the season, i'm going to start this way. it is the week before the fed meets, and all through the house, no fed speak to speak of, not even a mouse. the traders did cry, except on friday, we do get cpi. ok, i am done with that. cpi's going to be the big number of the week, even though it is not going to tell us a whole lot. the reason for that is it is a november number. there's no omicron in this, and nothing really about oil because oil has rolled over in the last couple of weeks, and we don't know where either of those things are going from here. but it will set up the fed meeting, and as you mentioned, we could get a 6.8% read on the headline cpi, which would be the highest since 1982. that is why, with oil being what it is, people are really going to be watching the core rate because i want to see what happens to the rent inflation we are seeing, and also whether we are seeing a broadening out of pressures. that would be the highest since 1992. some real historical comparisons t