mckeon -- michael mckee in five minutes. we will get some data.obless claims, 196 thousand is the median estimate this morning. that number staggeringly low. just phenomenal, some 200,000 expected again. tom: population adjusted, it is a cultural statement, a social statement. i'm not really sure what it means. but i don't have a chart in front of me. the population adjusted chart over 30, 40 years is stunning. jonathan:jonathan: even if you don't population adjusted that, 187,000 is the lowest we have seen going back to the 1960's. 196,000 is what people are looking for this morning. lisa: a lot of people asking about the part is the patient rate. how many people have dropped out? how many more could get back into the market? how much is that number representative of the overall pool of that population growth? jonathan: mike mckee is going to break down that number for you in a moment. that is the moving target into tomorrow. that is the latest beatty an estimate, 490,000 for payrolls in america. yields lower by three basis points, and crude down

michael mckee is with us. what do you see? michael: this is the most hated indicator on wall street that everybody trades. there is nothing else happening today. you may be move the market is way or another. it comes in line with where you would expect it to be for the idea of the friday payrolls report. this is only the private payrolls. but it was broad-based according to adp and that is the kind of thing that the fed and the market would like to see. seven 9000 goods producing jobs, 59,000 in manufacturing. there was a story about how manufacturers are having to turn down work because they do not have enough employees. they seem to be finding them. 161,000 people went back in the leisure and hospitality sector. it looks like what the fed thought would happen is happening as people stimulus checks ran out and they started to need more money and they would go back to work. it would be interesting see -- to see the participation rate. tom: the two spread comes out in a little bit. do you think that is important? jonathan: we ar

let's get to michael mckee. michael: let's catch up quickly on this.owell has a lot on his plate. you can imagine what it is like to be in the ukraine central bank. jobless claims 215,000. the economy still strong. the labor market still strong. that is down from a revised 233,000. that data some of the lower numbers as the seasonal distortions work their way out. the other number is the productivity revision to the fourth quarter. no change in total productivity, 6.6%. there is a big rise in unit labor cost, goes up from .3% to .9%. you can see the influence of a tight labor market and higher wages. good news for jay powell and bad news for jay powell. tom: i want to close the loop on the important conversation we had with the deputy governor of the central bank of ukraine. what is the vis and what can they do? michael: it is basically the central bank for central banks and does a lot of the work behind the scenes to make sure the financial system around the world is working correctly. they can help by helping identify some of the money the russian ce

he spoke exclusively with michael mckee. >> faster is better and i think the 1994 tightening cycle oremoval of accommodation cycle is probably the best analogy here. that one was quite successful. the fed moved 300 basis points in a single year. then made some adjustments afterwards in 1995. the result was we had the 2% inflation target over the next 10 years. the economy boomed in the second half of the 1990's. so i think this is a situation like that where we came out of the pandemic, we got surprised by inflation. and what you have to do is move the policy rate up discreetly, a fair amount. not to be too disruptive, but i think 50 basis point moves will be in the mix. and then get to a level where we can be neutral. right now, we are putting upward pressure on inflation. >> the markets in futures are pricing in 50. but the fed doesn't like the surprise of the markets. should we assume that that is what you're going to do? >> i'm just one person. i don't know where the rest of the committee will be in the chair. i thought it was a good speech yesterday that laid out the situation. w

louis fed president speaking with michael mckee.'s go to new york and get the news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: the u.s. and european allies are expected to announce new measures against russia during president biden's visit to brussels. the national security advisor said along with sanctions, they will have new efforts to track down on invasion. white and will attend the nato summit, a g-7 meeting and a session of the european council. russian opposition is calling on people to oppose putin after navalny was sentenced to nine years for alleged fraud. and content of court. they said the best action against workman owes in prudence regime is not something. this adds to the years he is serving. the myanmar government -- they said the remarks were politically motivated. the u.s. determined that myanmar killed more than 9000 people of an ethnic group and forced 800,002 fleet in 2016 and 2017. mckenzie scott has donated to habitat for humanity. the biggest known gift today for the length of posco the former wife of jeff bezos. --40 -- it w

bloomberg's michael mckee joins us. on't often get economists getting it absolutely on the nose. i think the real take away from it was that it is going to get hotter. michael: yes, and christine lagarde today saying it is the war determining the economy in europe. same thing here, but it was not that long ago that it was covid, the virus determining the economy. put them together and you get this kind of inflation. we've still got inflation hangovers from reopening the economy, and this is february prewar. i am trying to use the historical comparison to what we are doing right now. everybody talks about reagan in the 1980's. brush and have -- rosneft -- the head of the u.s. are the last time we saw this inflation, look how high that inflation number is. we have not experienced something like that, as kailey said, in 40 years. it is going to cause some social and political problems because it is not going to get any better. take a look at what went up. gasoline, six .6%. you know that when you go to the pump and you see

haidi: james bullard speaking exclusively with bloomberg's michael mckee.nnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: the u.s. and its european allies are expected to announce new measures against russia during president biden's visit to brussels. jake sullivan says that along with fresh sanctions, they will ensure efforts to crack down on invasions. biden will attend an emergency nato summit in the session of the european council. russian opposition figures calling on people to oppose lot in your prudent after he was sentenced to nine years after -- for alleged fraud. he said the best form of support for political prisoners is action against war criminals. his nine year jail sentence will be added to the years he's currently serving. the myanmar government declared to commit genocide. it's foreign ministry has denied engaging in any genocidal actions, citing the remarks are politically motivated. myanmar's military killed more than 9000 people enforce more than 800,000 others to flee to neighboring bangladesh. mckenzie scott has donated 430 $6 million

louis fed president speaking exclusively with bloomberg's michael mckee. matt miller and myself, thanks so much for watching. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: keeping you up today with news from around the world, i'm mark crumpton. judge ketanji brown jackson is facing the first of two days of questions from u.s. senators as they consider her nomination to the u.s. supreme court. she defend herself against criticism from republican senators who say she has been too lenient in sentencing child born offenders and has -- and is generally soft on crime. >> you know that there is someone who has written to me and has told me she has developed a agoura phobia. she cannot leave her house because she thinks everyone she meets will have seen her at the most vulnerable time of her life. i tell that story to every child born defendant. mark: judge jackson defended her work representing accused terrorist at guantanamo bay cuba , saying they had a constitutional right to be treated fairly. russian opposition leaner alexei navalny is calling on

let's get to mike mckee. michael: good morning.ou mentioned empire, the new york version of the ism index, down 11.8%. that is an index number. it was 3.1 in the month of february, so a big drop in manufacturing production, it seems, in new york, looking underneath the index. rices for goods seem to have gone up a little bit, while prices received for the raw materials they need goes down a little bit. that is some good news. but the ppi shows something also very interesting. final demand ppi up 0.8% on the month, down from 1% last month. takeout food and energy and ppi was up only 0.2% in the month, down from 0.8%, so a big drop in the increase in producer prices over the month of february. you take out the additional trade, which is retailer and wholesaler margins, you get a 0.2% increase as well. so over the year-over-year, we see the ppi for final demand up by 8.4%, ex-food and energy, 10% on a year-over-year basis headline. but it looks like maybe some good news going forward in terms of producer prices. we were restrained las

michael mckee joins us now. give us the rundown of what we should expect. michael: you just did.erything else, the fed has to figure out where the economy is going. we know going in that the first thing they will do is tell us they raised interest rates by 25 basis points, they told us they would do that and they will follow through. the question is what are the new economic projections? they have to raise their inflation forecasts but you look at oil prices today, now prices are below where they worth the beginning of march so that would signify inflation going down. can they come up with any kind of reasonable number. chairman jay powell gets to try and explain it all. the thing we will be looking at is the dot plot because that will give us an idea of what the fed will be doing going forward. the markets are priced lower than their january 15 meeting so now the market thinks rates will go higher. so what's the dot plot going to tell us. after tomorrow, risks ahead. guy: what about the balance sheet? are we going to hear about it tomorrow? michael: probably not. they may refere

here is michael mckee. michael: economists were spot on with their forecast.tion rises .8% and that puts it at 7.9% on an annual basis, which is exactly what was forecast. it is the highest and's january of 1992 -- it is the highest since january 1982. what happened then? a record for the fastest patrick in hockey history? the core goes up which push us 6.4% year-over-year. in a sense economists have this right. the problem is this is all february data in the war in ukraine did not start until february 24. it does not encompass most of that. looking at the biggest movers in the index, gasoline is what we wanted to check because that is what really made a difference the last time. i did not have that one in front of me yet. this is not coming up as the right number. here we go. the gasoline price index goes up -- goes up by 6.6%. gasoline a major contributor to this and that was before the war. food prices up 1%. that is also a major increase. those are the categories americans pay the most attention to. used cars is something everybody watches and it looks lik

with the economic data, let's get to michael mckee. michael: good morning.umbers people be interested in today are the durable goods orders. way down, down 2.2%. the expectation was for a chop of just .6%. ex transportation down .6%. these numbers are always volatile. does this mean a slow down trend? capital goods orders, the one we talk about that economists follow because it goes into gdp, that is a proxy for business spending. that is much less than the .5% gain that wasn't dissipated. capital -- that was anticipated. capital goods shipments up. in the month of february we were still growing. jobless claims. here is the number we have not seen in a long time. 187,000. we are below 200,000 mark for the month. i would guess there something a little odd about that. because we have stephen stanley coming up we will have a better view of that. that is such a huge fall from a decrease of 28,000. it is the lowest level since 1969. that is an amazing number. jonathan: is not population adjusted. michael: you adjust that for population, a stunning number. one num

michael: jim bullard, thank you very much for joining us this morning. jonathan: mike mckeehe money museum. is it nice there? michael: very nice, but i don't think they are giving out free samples. jonathan: inquiring minds want to know. mike mckee, thank you. great interview. as you might expect from mike mckee, with st. louis said president jim bullard. mike tweeted out the picture of the hyperinflation poster. for anyone wondering about hyperinflation, because we always get messages about it, here's the definition at the st. louis fed. when inflation, general sustained upward movement of prices of goods and services in the economy, reaches more than 40% a month. then they have a list of countries with the worst hyperinflation in history. germany, greece, hungary, china, zimbabwe, as you might expect. lisa: that was the first thing you thought i would you thought of the money museum, was whether or not they were giving out samples? jonathan: at the central bank of austria in vienna, you can go in and lift up a bar of gold. they have a bar of gold in the entrance around the

. >> let's go to michael mckee at bloomberg tv. >> since september of 2020 you have been operating on a framework let the economy run hot to bring the economy kown and how would you describe the reaction now. in other words? we are going to keep raising rates until it comes down to an acceptable level? mr. powell: i want to clear one thing up. nothing in our new framework or the changes we have made has caused us to wait longer to raise interest rates. what we said -- and this was a reflection of what happened in the preceding couple of decades. if we see low unemployment, high unemployment but don't see inflation, we are not going to raise rates until we see inflation. there was no sense if we got a burst of really high inflation we would wait to raise rates. quite the contrary. the framework is raising expectations at 2%. and really, we can't blame the framework. it was a sudden burst of inflation and reaction to it and it was what it was and not caused or related or caused or by related to the framework. so, come to today, i think our vision on this on the committee is very, very c

michael mckee spoke to mary daly on the impact of the war.ary: the invasion of ukraine and ensuing difficulties, first ukrainian people, but we should think about the effects on the economy, it is definitely a global headwind in the u.s. with the domestic economy, i see a risk to inflation, further upward pressure on prices, gasoline. we have seen it at the gas pumps. caroline: president biden is on his way to europe joining the summit thursday with nato. the g7, european union, all of that in brussels fuld he is expected to try to rally allies and partners around his administration's tough approach to russia. let's bring in annmarie hordern, who is following the president live from brussels. it is a tough balancing act once again. we are worried about chemical weapons being used. we know that the united states in no way wants to be saying they will in any way had on conflict with russia. annmarie: it is a balancing act, and it will be one when the president touches down in brussels. he is en route over the atlantic on air force one. he wants

joining us is michael mckee. 7.8% year on year. hat number to the upside or the downside? michael: probably to the downside. the thing to keep in mind is february data. except for the last few days in february it does not encompass what happened -- it encompasses what happened during that month, does not encompass the war. it will be interesting to see the ecb forecast for what the war will mean, particular for energy. we just got the new bloomberg survey of economists for march, where they think inflation is going, they have marked up every category by about 1%. they are looking at cpi for the year to be at 6.1%. it was at 5% last month. guy: we got a job number a couple of hours ago, job openings out of the united states. another strong number. the prior number was revised up even more. the labor market story in the united states continues to look strong. this is a labor market that looks like it is at full employment. given the data we have with jobs and cpi, is 25 really the base case going into the next fed meeting? michael: i

romaine bostick joins, michael mckee, joining us now. mike, you the economic expert. boom economy going bust eventually? mike: eventually asked but in the long run we are all dead. [laughter] 23 seconds long, the inversion yesterday. that does not tell us much. we will have a recession at some point. inversion, 2019. major recession, 2020. completely unrelated. what is it really telling us? i don't know. the indicators in terms of consumer spending and jobs, business investment. they are all still strong. many things can go wrong, many things can change in 18 months, particularly with the fed raising rates. no reason to think immediately we will see any kind of recession just because we saw a brief inversion. kailey: the equity market by and large does not seem concerned about a curve converting. romain: there is some concern but you're not seeing the selloff. kailey: having some audio issues. romain: i was making such a great point. talking about the market, you think about how far it has fallen with the s&p ratio coming down to 14. we are tracking well above long-te

haidi: speaking exclusively with michael mckee. let us look at the rates market.a surprise when it comes to the u.s. treasury selloff, reaching historic levels. we have the 20 year auction really attracting a lot of bidders to come in and pick up this option for the cheapest level in about a year. we saw the 20 year sale and that led the treasury rally in the long end. we are seeing some stabilization when it comes to asian sovereign training at the moment. australian 10-year is holding pretty steady at just over 2.7 percent at the moment. we are seeing a similar picture when it comes to new zealand. 10-year gilts also trading at 0.466 at the moment. we also see the currency side, and low-price action when it comes to these commodities like the aussie and the kiwi dollars as well. kathleen: let us bring in the portfolio manager at matthews asia. i am thinking about bonds and what i want to ask you and it is this. the two year yield was up 145 basis points. it was a huge move over the course of the quarter. you could not see anything like that unless you go back to

power that companies are able to exercise, something we heard yesterday in the interview with michael mckees the other dictation software company yesterday, reports of a breach. a good deal of their losses from yesterday. down about 3.5%, investors clearly still looking for answers around about. what else are we looking for answers? investigators in china trying to figure out because of the crash in a southwestern province. one of those black boxes has been found, so we will see if more answers can be derived from that. this becomes a trillion dollar company yesterday, six days in a row. part of the optimism in berlin. the stock down a little more than 1% before the bell. jonathan: what a move. big move in the equity markets, up almost 9% since chairman powell started speaking. brandt on wednesday, some clarity about the futures of the fed and that is why we got some form of a snapback rally. what is happening with this equity market versus what we have seen in bonds? >> thanks for having me. everyone that watches the market thought the fed would be aggressively hawkish and then follow up a

jonathan: the richmond fed speaking to michael mckee. good morning. futures are higher by 0.1% on the s&p. the 10 year down three basis points, a monster move in the bond market. in terms of yield, all the way out to 30's. crude down by six percentage points to $101.20 as we could have a monster release from the administration. all of a sudden, consensus from the federal reserve with a 50 basis point move in may and again in june. jp morgan has done exactly the same thing in the past day. tom: this will be the easy 50 basis point lift. after that, it will be fascinating to see how it plays out. jonathan: the first one, maybe. but consensus is back-to-back. . tom: more than back-to-back. jonathan: 50, 50, and 25 after that for the rest of this year and into next year. tom: it is wicked, to use the phrase from boston, it is wicked. we will do this. jobs day tomorrow. usually it will be like april 7, april 8. no, it is april 1. rubeela farooqi joins us, chief economist for high frequency economics. just piercing analysis on the u.s. economy and the globa

tom: baby one of the most import people on surveillances michael mckee because the data will be criticale were a couple of whispers in the zeitgeist in europe. there's lots of expelling of diplomats tit-for-tat going on on an eventful monday. i know north macedonia expels five russian diplomats. jonathan: would you like me to weigh on and thus -- to weigh in on this? 'bramo doesn't know what we are talking about. this is about losing to north macedonia last week and not being in the world cup. so any headline associated with north macedonia, it doesn't matter what it is, thomas going to bring it up on this program. futures up 0.2% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up 0.3%. in the bond market, we shape up as follows. i am still sore about this. the whole weekend, honestly. another article about italy and how bad the team is. i can't even read the sports pages these days. i think you are thinking of a different newspaper, a different time and place. stay out of trouble, all right? >>>> for the last 20 months we have basically gone sideways. >> we are going to be looking at a growth shock further

michael mckee, is are such a thing as real retail. >> you don't get it from the government, but why not? it does deflate the numbers. you can see what they are. you have to not just add an inflation figure, but an inflation figure for each category because the prices have gone up more. >> and my out of my mind to go with knoxville and chattanooga. it is so romantic. they are now or in a half from each other. >> >> as far as i know, you are never out of your mind. >> let that one go. >> will have to fit this headline and from our spokesman. >> to bettinger from chelsea. we are getting confirmation. ken griffin, and he is doing it for them. out of the bidding group, with chelsea. >>, make a suggestion for the griffin combine, they can basically write out a personal check and just say it works. >> you have to clear of how it works. yet to be serious. can you imagine the amount that it would take to make this work. the final bit of the football club on friday. >> going make clear that the prime minister of the united kingdom has been very overt in his travels to saudi arabia. right now. i'v

let's get more on this with policy correspondent michael mckee on those sentiment numbers. the fed is all about inflation expectations. how is it likely to look at this? michael: it will look kindly on it especially with the inflation numbers. the five to 10 year year at 3% has not changed so there is some hope that inflation expectations remain anchored but certainly a big jump in the one-year inflation expectations probably brought on by gasoline prices and the fed knows it cannot do anything about that so they will watch that. they are probably more interested in what the market thinks than what consumers think but 5.4% is the highest since 1981. the expectation index probably also influenced by gasoline prices and inflation. the 7.9% cpi inflation rate that we got yesterday for the month of february likely to be higher in march. guy: would we expect this trend to continue, that we continue to see the consumer as gasoline prices go higher, and this is preliminary data. nevertheless, we are likely to see sticker shock continuing, gas prices going higher as all prices work

michael mckee was saying this is the kind of volatility we have been seeing and will continue to see.nvestors are feeling safe enough to selloff to your treasuries pushing the yield to 184.05. the real focus yesterday and to some extent today has been oil. nymex, west texas intermediate up 6% again at 109.38. brent well over $110 per barrel. so, the war in ukraine, the russian attack has helped push up oil prices and they are holding. gold has come down. this is part of the risk off feeling of the day. we see rick -- bitcoin up. we see treasury yields rising and we see gold coming down. still a relatively high level, 19.2190. petrol ounce. i think it is interesting if you listen to the talk about the dollar as world reserve currency. will people stick with it are walk away? gold is important as something like the ruble becomes pegged to the shiny metal since there is nothing else. investors are watching the war more closely as it escalates. russian military advances further into the south of the country. for the latest, we want to bring in bloomberg's annmarie hordern at the white hou

at 10:30 we have an exclusive interview with thomas barkan, speaking with michael mckee. he will be talking about that yield curve we have been seeing, with the inversion we saw yesterday. do they care? is it an irrelevant metric? kansas city fed president esther george is going to be speaking at 1:00 p.m. how much are they looking at that 50 basis point rate hike at the next meeting as a given? also we get the eia crude inventory report. the push-pull of supply-demand is incredibly important at a time when you do have russia really in question right now. how much can the u.s. increase supply, and how quickly are people drawing down inventory at the time we are still talking about a recovery from the pandemic? jonathan: we have an opec meeting soon as well. lisa: tomorrow. it will be interesting to see how they address russia, how they talk about increasing input, especially after our interview yesterday where they are saying, look, we judge everything in we are being prudent. jonathan: see if they last longer than 13 minutes this time. thank you, lisa. 11-day winning str

. >> let's go to michael mckee. >> hello, since september 2020, he been operating on monetary policy framework about the economy to bring on a plummet down, that seems to be over but i'm wondering how you would describe your reaction function now, what is it that is trying to do other than bring inflation down? we are going to keep raising rates to an acceptable level. >> i want to clear one thing up, nothing in our framework or the changes we made caused us to wait longer to raise interest rates. we set in the framework changes, this was as reflection of what happened, a couple decades, we received about unemployment, high employment but we don't see inflation that will raise rates. fast what we said. there's no sense in which we got a burst of high inflation, we wait to raise rates, thus not in the framework. quite the contrary, the framework is all about anchoring inflation expectations and to a present so i hear framework, we can't leave the framework, a sudden unexpected burst of inflation and then reaction to it and was what was but not in any way cost or related framework. so,

at 10:30, and exclusive with michael mckee. how much does he edify this feeling that a 50 basis point rate hike is pretty much guaranteed in the next meeting? we are also going to be hearing from esther george at around 1:00 p.m. today. at 10:30 am, obviously there is so much focus on oil. how much can we supply crude with 10% of the world supplies in question? we get the eia report. it comes at a time when gas prices are hovering around the highest ever in the united states. how much do we see them subside as we see prices come down on the broader market? how much is this basically a pause? jonathan: lisa, thank you. let's start the market conversation with thanos vamvakidis. can we start with these headlines from the kremlin? no breakthrough in ukraine talks. looking at the inflation bank drop in europe. pushing double-digit in spain. do you have a decent understanding of the reaction function of this ecb? thanos: the ecb is facing a difficult challenge. the war in ukraine, the energy shock is impacting the european economy.

let's get to mike mckee for a quick look ahead. michaelsically, wall street is taking the view that this is an nfp day, not following payrolls, because there's a lot going on in the rest of the world. this will be a very quickly dismissed reports because we already know what the fed is going to be doing next week. they are going to raise rates 25 basis points whether or not this number changes significantly. 421,000 is the forecast, with a 3.9% unemployment rate. that tells you the labor market is still healthy if we get anything like that and not something for the fed to be worried about jonathan: looking forward to your coverage in about five minutes. not following payrolls. an important headline moment to go from jens stoltenberg. i don't want it to pass because there are calls to do the following, and he is pushing back. nato will not move into ukraine airspace. in a minute, the significance of that line this morning. tom: it is very important, and it redefines geography and landmass. that is something i think we will focus on through

we are joined by bloomberg international economics and policy correspondent michael mckee, as well asbc capital markets equity derivatives strategist. we've already gotten chairman powell's opening statement. he talked about a strong labor market, that he sees liftoff this month. does he sound hawkish to you? michael: it is all relative, i guess. he sounds relatively hawkish for where he has been, compared to some other numbers of the committee, but he is still to the dovish side. he comes out and says with inflation well above the 2% target and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target rate and the federal funds rate at our meeting next month, but he does not say by how much he would raise it. jim bullard, who is a voting number of the committee, said just a short time ago in a speech he is making that the fed still needs to go 50 basis points. so they are clearly not united at this point. there will be a lot to talk about at the may 15, 16 meeting. guy: a lot of uncertainty to factor into their thinking. let's talk about the uncertainty . chair powe

thank you, michael mckee. joining us is the goldman sachs chief u.s. equity strategist. he raised the s&p 500 dividend forecast from 8% to 10% on earnings growth. thank you for being here in the studio with me. mike was talking about expectations that the fed will hike 25 basis points. we have seen an aggressive repricing of the hockessin's expectations from the federal reserve. we started to see that unwind. how does this translate into your world? >> the way it translates is that companies that have strong growth and are unprofitable, or have low, sin profit margins, have been negatively affected. real yields were -1% of the start of the year. they dropped, less negative, around -50 basis points just before on abilities--before the hostilities, the war in ukraine. now they are -80 basis points or so. when rates are rising, that is a challenge for the evaluation of long-duration stocks. the average term of the cash flows is far into the future. that is an area of great focus and particularly painful for portfolio managers, which are heavily concentrated in these unprofi

let's go to michael mckee at bloomberg tv. >> mr. chairman, since september of 2020 you've been operating on a monetary policy framework that let the economy run hot to bring unemployment down. that seems to be over, but i'm wondering how you would describe your reaction function now. what is it that the fed is trying to do other than bring inflation down? in other words is it, we're going to keep raising rates until it comes down to an acceptable level? >> yeah, so i want to clear one thing up. again, that is that nothing in our new framework or in the changes that we made has caused us to wait longer to raise interest rates. what we said in the framework changes was, and this was really a reflection of what had happened for the proceeding couple of decades, actually, what we said was if we see low unemployment, high employment but we don't see inflation, then we're not going to raise rates until we actually see inflation. that's what we said and that was the sense of it. there was no sense in which if we got a burst of really high

he spoke to michael mckee. >> faster is better.nk the 19 84 tightening cycle is probably the best analogy here. that one was quite successful. the fed moved 300 basis points in a single year than made some adjustments afterward. the result was we hit our 2% inflation target over the next 10 years. the economy boomed in the second half of the 90's. this is a situation that is like that. we came out of the pandemic and got surprised by inflation. now you have to move the policy rate up discreetly, not to be too disruptive. i think 50 basis point moves would be in the mix. get to a level that we can be neutral. from there, we can decide if we want to be restrictive and put further downward pressure on inflation. it's the wrong place to be given where inflation is. >> as i noted, futures are pricing in 54 may 4. the fed doesn't like to surprise the market. can we assume this is what you're going to do? >> i'm just one person on the committee. i don't know where the rest of the committee will be. the chair has to manage that process. i

with breaking headlines on chariman powell, here is mike mckee. michaelave the prepared text from the fed chairman and he basically confirms what everybody on wall street is betting on, saying with inflation well above 2% and a strong labor market, we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month. he does not say by how much, so you can still guess about that, although investors are priced out the idea of a 50 basis point move at this point. he goes on to repeat rates first. reducing our balance sheet will commence after the process of raising interest rates has begun and will proceed in a predictable manner through adjustments to reinvestments. assessing the economy, the chairman notes the rapid spread of the omicron variant lead to slowing economic activity earlier this year but now cases are declining in the slow down seems to been brief. the labor market is extremely tight. employers having difficulty filling openings. unprecedented number of workings are quitting and wages are risin

. -- let's get the mike mckee. michael: jobless claims drop down to 214,000.nued improvement there. we can add because nobody really cares because we are back to normal. housing starts to matter because house prices have been contributing to inflation. housing starts for the month of february up 6.8%, which is a significant improvement over the drop of 4.1% a month before. building permits coming down 1.9%. all of this is very volatile. the numbers change every month. a lot depends on the weather, but if building permits were to reflect a change in builder sentiment, that that might be something that would affect the economy down the road. something to keep an ion. the philadelphia fed comes in at 27.4. last month 16, so strengthen manufacturing in the philadelphia district gives some view things are still strong and maybe supports what jay powell was saying yesterday about the economy able to withstand rate increases. jonathan: he kept saying it. "all signs are a strong economy, we feel the economy is strong and well-positioned to withstand better monetary po

let's get to mike mckee. michael: it has become something of a tradition for fed officials who dissent on decisions to explain that decision the moment the blackout lifts. jim bullard is explaining why he voted against the 25 basis point move the fed made on wednesday. he said the economy is stronger than people think and will remain so into 2023. he has a rather scathing criticism of the open market committee, saying that the policy rate is currently far too low to manage the u.s. macroeconomic situation. he goes on to say u.s. policy has been unwittingly easing further because inflation has risen sharply while the policy rate has remained very low. that pushes real yields lower, and he goes on to say the committee will have to move quickly to address this situation or risk losing credibility on its inflation target. bullard points to 1994, when the fed moved 50 basis points, and even 75, and managed to bring the economy in to a soft landing. he said that should be the model. so jim bullard making a very strong case

us through what is happening, bloomberg international economics and policy correspondent mike mckee. michaelwould immediately .2 rates rising and say that is the reason, but rumor, the fed is only raise rates now for a little over 24 hours. but the markets front run the fed, and you can see what has happened. we had a 7.2% decline in existing home sales in the month of february, 7% for single family homes, which is the one most people follow. prices continue to rise, up 2%. that just adds to the overall inflationary pressure. people say that is going to continue for a while. one of the reasons for that is that there is not enough supply. 1.7 months, there's not enough homes for people to buy. but this was the winter season. we'll get into the spring selling season and cf more people put their homes on the market. they will find a little bit less support from the fed. the yellow line is the mortgage bond buying that the fed was doing. you can see how in the crisis, the redline is when cut would -- when covid started, the fannie mae acceptance rate, now they are going the other direction. the

mckee is with us for more on the decision. when those headlines dropped what is the first thing -- when those headlines drop, what is the first thing you are looking for? michael25 basis point rate increase today and increase the interest on reserves at the same time. we want to know what they think will happen with growth, inflation, and unemployment. and then how does that translate into the idea of higher rates. how fast and far do they go. the dot plot will tell us what they think is going to happen. the question you want to ask jay powell is how will you do all of this without tipping the economy into recession bring the fed has had a very hard time avoiding recessions may be only once in the last 40 years or so when they start raising rates and if that is the case again, than it is quite a trade-off for the fed. guy: mike we are looking forward to the coverage in the next few hours. coming up with the fed special, certainly looking for that. in terms of what we are watching other than the fed decision, president biden announcing he will speak around 12:30 eastern back on the u.s. plans to give assistance to ukraine. we will bring that later. kailey: more

michael buchanan, bbc news shrewsbury. one of those hoping to get answers today is carley mckee. us. everything was sort of 0k until labour. her heart rate kept dipping _ 0k until labour. her heart rate kept dipping. they ended up having to press _ dipping. they ended up having to press a _ dipping. they ended up having to press a red bus for other people to come _ press a red bus for other people to come in _ press a red bus for other people to come in and — press a red bus for other people to come in and intervene. —— buzzer. luckily— come in and intervene. —— buzzer. luckily she — come in and intervene. —— buzzer. luckily she was born, everything was looking _ luckily she was born, everything was looking good within the first ten minutes — looking good within the first ten minutes. it was ok. it was nearly tragedy— minutes. it was ok. it was nearly tragedy then. it wasn't until a couple — tragedy then. it wasn't until a couple of— tragedy then. it wasn't until a couple of hours later she started having _ couple of hours later she started having these blue episodes. and we woul