joining to discuss is edward harrison and michael mckee. let me start with mike. what are we expecting when the data hits 2:00 p.m. new york time? michael: it will affect what they told us in april about where the fed is with tightening -- in january, 43% said they had tightened at least somewhat. the question is what are we going to see from the banks beyond just the survey? there has been a big drop in business loan demand as well. our credit standards tightening or companies don't need the money right now and are not applying for credit? that is something we will not learn from the sloos. alix: edward, what do you think? edward: i don't think there will be as many signs as in the future. this is yesterday's data. what we saw today was pok west, they cut their shares from 25 to one because they need to hold onto cash. events you must make or enough that what we see in the data today will inform us how much worse it will be going forward. another thing that is interesting in that context is jay powell did not seem to be that negative on the data he had already see

of course, michael mckee knew the answer to that.looking for 490,000 but we got 431. that was the last time payrolls became -- came in below estimates on the day. lisa a: it is phenomenal that people have underestimated the economy to this degree. some people say even if we overestimate this time, the lag effect will take care of that. tom: i looked back to where we were at unemployment at the peak and it was 150 million. we are back to that. now we have immigration and a larger economy over the last three or four years. but we have essentially recovered in a general way to where we were in 2019. jonathan: it has taken this long to get back to normal, whatever normal is. tom: that c had you have to make. there are a lots of moving parts. what a privilege to have governor crosser --randy kroszner. jonathan: going into payrolls, 180 5000 is the estimate. the previous number was 236,000. the actual number drops next. ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools your small business needs to keep up, excel, an

listen to corbyn and michael -- liz mccormick and michael mckee join us.hat is your perspective on what could go wrong over this weekend? do we get a deal or no deal? >> it seems more and more likely we are going to get a deal. we understand the two sides are coming closer together on a compromise of spending caps and lifting the debt ceiling for two years, maybe the defense spending increase at the biden administration was looking for but there isn't room for error. we could see another walk at of negotiations like we saw last weekend and that indicates that once a deal comes to a handshake, the actual members of congress, their caucuses may not like it and they are the ones that still have devote for it to make it become law and the clock is ticking, as we all know. guy: let's figure out what is happening here. from a market perspective, you find yourself in a situation where it looks like we will get a deal but we've all got long memories and we -- we remember tarp and a deal is not a deal until it's a deal. house of the >> ourselves talking about this?

michael mckee joins us to break it down. the stew here, we have a strong jobs creation number from adp. whether it translates to the national payroll support, is another question. 296,000 jobs created in the month of april, 60,000 jobs producing, although much of that comes in construction and natural resources mining because manufacturing loses 38,000 jobs. 289,000 -- the leisure and hospitality category is still struggling to find workers. it shows a slowdown in the median pay change for those who are in the job staying category, 13.2% for job changers. that is down from in the 7's the job stayers one. adp is only private-sector's jobs. we will see if that is but they come up with for the month. they have been in the last couple of months below what the national payroll levels have been,'s will be interesting to see if the national payroll numbers are strong. tom: stickler -- jonathan: stay close. we will catch up with you soon. this afternoon the federal reserve decision, michael mckee be in the room and will break down t

michael mckee page 42 of the report. rested in. it goes down to .27% from .29% month over month and down to 5.16% from 5.73%. tom: that vector of service disinflation is still in place, albeit barely sloped. michael: yeah. that is a good way of putting it. i was looking at the chart. that's a good way of putting it. lisa: how volatile has -- i am curious, though, about whether we have seen that incredible volatility people are talking about. michael: we have seen it in the month over month numbers, but we are seeing in this core ex housing, we are down to five .16%, a 50 basis point move almost. lisa: we will continue this conversation coming up. andrew, erik, liz young and alexander yoakam on the regional banks. tom: liz young has been on fire on twitter. really informative. lisa: how do we get sense on how to move forward from cpi wednesday? this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first word, i am lisa mateo. after making little progress on debt limit talks, president bid

we want to go to amelia island, florida, where michael mckee is standing by with tom barkin at the atlantance. michael: well, thank you very much, and we are pleased to welcome richmond fed president tom barkin to bloomberg television and radio worldwide. thank you very much for joining us this money. >> great half the time with you, time out the conference. michael: retail sales this money came in kind of mixed but still positive. we saw -- a production manufacturing on the manufacturing -- we saw industrial production manufacturing on the manufacturing side up strongly. what does that tell you about where the economy is and whether you have done enough to slow things down and bring inflation lower? >> what i take is that demand is cooling but not yet called. that is what you saw today. we had this big spike on all of the demand metrics in january, but february, march, april, they are coming in much more flattish net inflation and retail sales than they are. that is assigned of the combination of all of these things, rate hikes, eroding consumer savings, fiscal stimulus, are all affecting

stick around -- michael mckee. stick around. this is bloomberg. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) woah. ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools your small business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. constant contact. helping the small stand tall. >> welcome back. i am scarlet fu in new york. shares from meta raised their gain now down about 2.5 percent after the federal trade commission proposed limits on facebook monetizing use data for products like facial recognition technology. we are 45 minutes away from the federal reserve interest rate decision and our economic and policy correspondent mike mckee is at the fed now. what are you watching for? michael: four things wall street wants to know today.

jonathan: a great conversation with michael mckee and rafaela bostic. from the fed this week including chairman powell friday. your equity market is just a little bit softer this morning. a whole lot softer, home depot in the premarket down by 5%. comparable sales could decline between two and 5% this year. they blamed a whole bunch of things. they blamed lumber deflation and social media? tom: there is a wide set of ideas and night -- i'm that has always been true but they are up 17% for the last few years. whether debates have always been there. jonathan: have you noticed it's only affects when it's bad. when it's good it's us. lisa: i was going to say the exact same thing. that seems to be the new fx trade. tom: let's talk to an expert. lisa is an expert because she is at home depot three times a week but we are clueless. someone who is competent is charles grom. what's cool about this out of the college of holy cross is this is one of the coolest things in the securities research side. this gentleman is a cpa and a cfa and that is bulletproof across

jon, we have to go to michael mckee's favorite week of all time.imes. jonathan: let me go through the list for you. bostic, logan, bullard, bostic. tom: that does not include brainard over at the white house! jonathan: by the end of the week we may have a decent picture of where policy is going? tom: no. that would be the answer. they are in the color band we have been talking about all morning. i see it with a two-year midrange yield, just moments ago .o42%. jonathan: chairman powell, who will we get? will we get a governor jefferson, which is all long and variable lags and maybe we are done here? tom: it will be interesting to see. they will meet, paul and bernanke in honor of john williams dying young. you go to where we are with lombok and williams and then go on to blanchard of a reduced r starred. will we get back down to a lower rate, a lower yield regime? all of these fuzzy concepts though -- jonathan: all of these fuzzy concepts though. tom: lisa, can we believe in a six-month the goal? no one is looking for the yield structure short-term

michael mckee is only one that looks at that but help me here with the -- personal consumption takingquarter he was running a little bit stronger than had been initially thought which suggests it may not be unrealistic that we see we see reasonable growth in the second quarter. the alanna fed gdp number, is way too preliminary but it has is going at 2.9% in the second quarter. lisa: i reliable are these data points -- how reliable are these data points? michael: we saw a lot of fraud during the pandemic and that really pushed it up a lot. we had 20 million jobless claims and now we are saying half that. we don't know and a lot of these jobless claims systems in the states, found out they are running on very old computers and they don't have a good verification system. states have chopped spending on it and they have very few people verifying who are getting the benefits so it calls into question the whole jobless claims structure, a rather rickety structure. we saw continuing claims not revised. they were over one million. very little change in that suggests that a few of those who wi

joining us is michael mckee. what do we know about them?w but he is one of the quietest. when you are a new kid in town, he hasn't stepped up a lot to talk about his policies but he joins the rest of management in demanding we get back to a 2% inflation rate. he is committed to doing whatever it takes to do that. you have lisa cook up there as well. she was nominated and confirmed last year but only to a term that had two years. the president re-nominating her for a full term today. in terms of adriana kugler, senator menendez held out for a latina on the board and she will be the first one in history. she has been most recently working for the united states at the world bank. before that, spent a lot of time in academia and at one point was chief economist at the labor department. her background is labor economics and now that we are in this timer we are watching the unemployed rate so closely, that we need to get unemployment down and we need to get inflation down, she may be an influential voice. guy: how do they change the narrative for

tom: michael mckee, thank you so much.g michael mckee with the chairman. this is important, a conversation with claudia sahm who was on fire yesterday on twitter, a former fed economist of sahm consulting. she occasionally writes for bloomberg. you are pivotless. this is not a fed that will pivot. why will they just say no? claudia: there's a lot of reasons why later in the year they will not cut. they will not cut if there is a recession or banking or financial market turmoil. we've seen this, they will hike tomorrow and that will be twice. the lesson from the past is that if you go back to arthur burns who is widely viewed as the worst central banker in the history of the fed, he kept cutting when unemployment went up and that led to vo;lcker having to stay the course. this fed will not talk about it, but the history looms large and makes sense. tom: within that, they have time and there's a sequence of meetings every six weeks or so. i would suggest they have massive asymmetric advantage to waiting and seeing more data.

francine: fed officials speaking to our michael mckee on the fight against inflation.e are back with grace peters, jpmorgan private bank's emea head of investment strategy. will the fed get to 2% no matter what happens to the economy? grace: inflation is still the number one thing that the fed and the ecb as well as still fighting. our assumption of rate cuts coming through, we are making the assumption the economy would be weak. if inflation does not weaken, you are not going to get those cuts coming through. and there are still signs out there that inflation is cooling, but worrying signs that we need to watch. so if the coast is not clear, and i am referring specifically to wage inflation, various metrics pointing that wage inflation in the u.s. is at 45% and medium-term consumer inflation expectations at the last reading ticked up, so we want to measure those consumer inflation expectations are accurate. we are not out of the woods yet, but when we have tighter lending standards coming through the economy, we think that is where that will be headed. tom: how is the

without further pause, michael mckee.e tightness of the labor market. 242,000, major rise from last week's 230,000 drop. the forecast was for 240 so it isn't hugely out of line but it shows a little bit higher baseline for jobless claims. you want to know about unit labor costs, 6.3 percent in the first quarter. nonfarm productivity overall was down 2.7% so not good news on the productivity and cost front. it shows inflation pressures remain. the trade balance comes in at -$64 billion. that is down from -70.6 so it's one of the reasons that the first quarter growth came in a little bit higher than we had thought. tom: stephenrashudo will help us in a moment but i know productivity is moldy. our unit labor costs, a proxy for inflation? mike: they are a proxy or contributor to inflation. it's a backward looking number because its quarterly so it incorporate january, february and march and it's telling you there were labor cost pressures, that were higher in the first quarter than the fourth quarter. that is something we alr

raphael bostic, president of the fed atlanta, today he was pushed by michael mckee and he said if he to vote today, he would probably just sit back and let things go. but he was definite, no rate hikes. he sees me, no rate cuts. let's get that right, until 2024. >> no. in today's environment where there is so much in certainty, i do not think we can rule out anything. if i had to have a vote right now, i would vote to hold. as you noted, we've got two more inflation readings and a jobs number, it jobs report coming out. there's a lot more information we are going to have. >> what he would not rule out is the rate cuts. although he does think it is likely. inflation is one of the things that has improved a little bit. it is still above topic. raphael bostic notes the cpi coming in on the core at 4.9% year-over-year is still more than double the target of 2%. and of course you've got the headlight at 5.5%. you can see come the direction is good where it is going. neel kashkari is president of the federal reserve bank of minneapolis for he spoke -- minneapolis. he made it clear, and he

haidi: which fed president thomas barking speaking to bloombergs michael mckee there.ism that china could help drive global growth is starting to fade. let's look at that outlook and bring in annabelle for her morning colors. some investment banks there are turning more bearish. annabelle: that's rate, it has been interesting the reaction, particularly on the numbers that came through yesterday. big maces to the downside particularly for industrial output and retail sales. the base effects that were coming given that china's economy was under lockdown at this point last year in shanghai . certainly not painting a very good picture for the outlook for the economy. already we are starting to see economists ponder whether that means that given what we have seen to date in 2023, does mean they have to rethink their entire growth projections this year? barclays is one that has actually reduced its gdp forecast and they are now seeing growth at 5.3 percent in 2023 down from 5.6%. they say the higher figure is simply out of reach. they are concerned about the monthly activity

. >> michael mckee from bloomberg radio and television. can you tell us about what your policy reaction function is? your policy framework, going forward? when you look at the economy at the next meeting, are you looking at incoming data, which is by definition backward looking? are you forecasting what is likely to happen? are you rolling out the rate because the market has priced in? >> and did not catch the last part. >> markets have priced in. chair powell: ok. we look at a combination of data and forecasts. the idea is too great a good forecast based on what you see in the data. we are always looking at both. it will be obvious things like readings on inflation, wages, economic growth, and on the labor market. all of those, many things. they particular -- the particular focus over the past six or seven weeks now and going forward is going to be what is happening with credit tightening . our small and medium-sized banks tightening credit standards, and is this having an effect on loans and lending echo so we can begin to assess how thu

joining us now, bloomberg's michael mckee and ira jersey of bloomberg intelligence. mike, you helped me with the question. you get the first answer. we get the data today. what do you think? what are the three at this point? it's sort of in the middle. i don't think we're probably not going to have a recession caused by the banking industry. jamie dimon saying today he thinks it's just about over. there may be some more. you know, disruptions here or there, but the whole question now is going to be whether or not we see a big tightening of credit standards, which we are not probably going to know about until next week. but once we see that, we'll have a much better idea. obviously, as tim fiore was telling you from the ism that things have stabilized, they're not getting better in manufacturing, but they're not getting worse, which would argue on the recovery side or at least the soft landing side, the recession side. we're still waiting to see the problem here is maybe in the fact that prices paid went up in the report. and if it means inflation is still around and

michael mckee says we need to lose 200,000 jobs a month to get unemployment up to two percent as the fed's forecast. that will not happen by august. ed: it will not. right after i got out of high school, and that milton friedman. he had a story about the money supply. the money supply is still elevated compared to normal but it is contracting. the last time it did that was the 1930's. i worry that we are may be overdoing it and the wants to make sure they are more like volker than arthur burns. it will listen to bill dudley -- on your program this morning, they say the fed will tighten until they see the whites of your eyes. i that time, it is too late. that is ok. we will deal with it. we will probably get a recession but inflation will go away. katie: i am curious to dig into m2 a little. how we should think about m2 is up for hot debate, especially on twitter, which i do not recommend you do. house to be think about it? it is -- how should we think about it? you think about the lack of monetary tightening, how much does that extend the lag? ed: this question is unknowable. it has

i hope michael mckee has the rate for me. what is your take on this data?ike: separations look like they have changed little according to the bls. 2.5 percent is the quits rate and the number of quits decreased in a combination of food services which tells us about the need for workers there. the overall number has been important to the fed. it means the labor market is tight and people cannot find workers and that means they have to pay up to get them which is inflationary. they are watching the overall quits numbers and they have come down significantly. 400,000 smaller than the prior month so that is a significant change but this is march data and it's in the rearview mirror and there are questions about it because there are duplicate job openings posted and there is a low response rate from companies. we don't know exactly how accurate these numbers are but they are something to keep an eye on in the midst of trying to figure out what the fed will do. alix: the market is not really responding with equities still a little softer with a bit into the bond

alix: let's get more on that because michael mckee still here. take it one by one. 2:00 p.m. from the sloos? michael: probably that things have not changed as much as people might have thought. alix: that is not exciting. michael: they changed a lot in january, up to 43%. and then jay powell in his news conference last week, sort of a lack of excitement on his part when he was asked about the loan officers survey. my guess is we see a small increase in the number of banks tightening credit. what we have not seen so far is banks really pulling back on offering that credit. there was a brief period in mid-march, but now we have seen numbers go up again. dani: he did mention only three times -- i guess if you have seen the report, it's maybe not as bad -- the financial stability report, anything you are looking out for there, or just waiting for cpi data come in? michael: i think we will be looking at the financial stability report to see what they have to say, but we will be looking backwards to know what happened during march and has happened since with banks. we als

bloomberg's michael mckee joins us. what did we learn that was different?ichael: not a lot different from jay powell in the since he is continuing to talk much as he did in the press conference about the need to restrain inflation and the fact inflation is not coming down as fast as they had hoped. but, the labor market is getting looser. what is different is, we heard the last couple of days a number of fed officials suggested maybe we need to have another rate increase on the table for june. powell, not endorsing that, not specifically talking to it. he didn't say if the bank problems lead to a greater than expected tightening of credit, they might not have to do as much. but, no specific remarks on the june fed meeting yet. guy: stick with us. let's deal with the other issue we are facing now, a breakdown in the talks surrounding the debt ceiling. kailey leinz joins us from washington, d.c. the president is out of town at the g7. have we hit a serious roadblock or is this political posture, is this a stunt? >> that is the question, how much of this is ne

michael mckee is here. two days in a row off of inflation, claims and ppi, the markets move. the ppi. it does not have a direct relationship to cpi. ppi comes in lower than anticipated, higher than last month. year-over-year, it is down. a 4/10 drop the prior month, the core of 2/10, compared with flat reading. that is a revision upward for the month. year-over-year, 2.3% for headline. 3.2% for core. those are both down. definitely progress on the factory gate prices, jobless claims also feeding into that. the labor market is getting looser, 264 thousand from an unrevised 242. so a jump. tom: jump is the right word. michael: 24,000 on the month. a gain of about 12,000. so it does look like the labor market is starting to respond, at least in the claims area. we are seeing lower inflation. tom: you nailed the vector of service sector inflation, going from 7.3 to whatever. vectors are in place for disinflation, right? michael: we are seeing disinflation, it is a slow process. the number you are talking about is jay powell's indicator. we are waiting for housing to start dropping

michael mckee reporting from a fed meeting where everyone spoke. good morning.in housing starts up to .2% after falling 20% in march -- .8% in march. voting permits down 1.5% but better than negative 8.8% we had a scene. one of the things being discuss in allen's a fed conference was whether the housing industry was taking it on the chin. interest rates have gone up the rates have gone up by the general consensus is fed officials buildings in their districts telling them they do not have a problem because there's so much demand for housing they can put holes in the ground. tom: you are traveling today. what was a lesson you learned from the 222 speakers? michael: the important thing for wall street to realize there is not a consensus yet for they do in june. there was a feeling a pulse was -- a pause was baked in. they have been expecting an appointment to go up and have not done it that. they want to wait to decide what they're going to do in june. tom: thank you so much. safe travels and terrific coverage. these are important conferences. all the different reg

tom: michael mckee here with us.th of the first half of the year, what a wonderful time to catch up with stephen stanley, a chief economist of u.s. capital markets operation. i have to go to the housing data this morning and it finally, with a wonderful index, back to negative statistics year-over-year. might just mentioned the housing economy is completely messed up with mortgages and that. can you predict the housing economy or do you just give up? stephen: i think there are a couple things we can start with. in the long-term we know the market has been undersupplied for a long time, that was exacerbated for a time during the pandemic. i think we have had a sharp cyclical drop in demand as mortgage rates rose. but i think once things normalize, we will get back to a period where supply is tight. so i think there is a strong underlying bid for housing. i think the other thing is, as mike suggested, because there is a lot less existing home supply on the market, this share of new home sales, percentage of home sales,

now let's bring in the president of the richmond fed, speaking to bloomberg television's michael mckee earlier today. listen to the kind of things he said. to me, he is more of a centrist, the kind of guy often in the middle watching the data to see what happens, but when you listen to what he says, i think he may have become more of a hawk. he says demand is cooling but not yet cool. the job market is still quite hot. he wants to put inflation to bed, as he put it, finally and firmly. let's listen to what he said. >> i do want to learn more about what is happening with all these lagged effects, but i also want to reduce inflation, and if more increases are what it will take to do that, i'm comfortable doing that. kathleen: he will be watching lagged effects, definitely, but his wording, his since he is ready to hike rates if that is what needs to be done, and he is unequivocal about this, attend to put him more in the hawkish can't. he is, however, waiting to see economic data ahead of the june meeting and of course, what happens with the debt ceiling. if we move onto the president of

tom: i was with michael mckee when they brought up the v-shaped and he spit out his coffee.it. when they say pause the market here is and that is something they're trying to manage right now? mike: tried to manage the see a financial condition because the markets are calling for cuts and that's one of the problems they have with the idea of are they tight enough to bring down inflation because we see some loosening out there and that makes it less likely that we will get a quick reaction and inflation markets. jonathan: it is good to catch up and we will catch up the next hour. also dropping by, jared woodward, sarah hunt and amy wu silverman. lisa: i know who will be set with you. i will just swing by and ask him some things. tom: run some video of michael o'leary laughing at scott kirby. jonathan: pilot contracts at denver airport which i was quite impressed with. it wasn't too bad. lisa: how long were you there? jonathan: 30 minutes, that was enough. ♪ what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challe

jeffrey sherman, doubling capital, jobless claims with michael mckee up next. ♪ we moved out of the cityate nature. but then he got us t-mobile home internet. i was just trying to improve our signal, so some of the trees had to go. i might've taken it a step too far. (chainsaw revs) (tree crashes) (chainsaw continues) (daughter screams) let's pretend for a second that you didn't let down your entire family. what would that reality look like? well i guess i would've gotten us xfinity... and we'd have a better view. do you need mulch? what, we have a ton of mulch. tom: "bloomberg surveillance," good morning to lisa abramowicz and jonathan keene. tom keene, preparing for another hour to move forward through the morning. doubt little negative, this eased up a little bit, the enthusiasm seem earlier -- seen earlier in the morning and enthusiasm now goes to the economic data. there is existing home sales at 10:00, but before that, the philadelphia fed business outlook, top of mckee's list, forget about claims first. michael: it would be great if claims came out. 242,000, which is down from the

after i get up from the surveillance note this afternoon -- usually we tie michael mckee to 8:00:31 becausee? do they talk about the possibility that they may raise rates again? there is a chance of another rate increase by july, about 50% or so. it is three weeks old. lisa: this comes at a time when there is increasing dispersion among fed members. how much do expect to hear that reflected? how much under the radar dissent do you think there really is? >> we have names now from their speeches, but we will see how many were arguing against the idea that inflation is going to come down rapidly, and that the fed has moved into restrictive enough territory. lisa: what data are you watching to understand the new tea leaf for forward-looking information for the fed? >> we will be looking at the price indexes. we get those tomorrow, the pce index. it is hard to separate out a lot of this stuff from the noise but you look at what happened in the u.k. today with prices going up more than expected. that was largely services. we will keep an eye on service price inflation. the nonservice -- the ism s

michael mckee has the task of looking through 20 items in four pages of data behind each of those 20t right now but we do not have income numbers yet because everybody is hitting internet at the same time. personal income for percent -- .4% better than .3% last month and it matches the estimate. spending stronger than anticipated up .8% compared with flat reading in march. pce deflator. the fed is watching. it is stronger. .4% up from .1% and stronger than the consensus forecast. it puts us at 4.4% for the headline number over the march number of 4.2%. core is up .4% which is stronger than anticipated. that puts us at 4.7% from 4.6%. if we are looking at the pce numbers out of this release, you are seeing pressure being generated on the fed to maybe raise rates one more time. we would check in on what the bets are in a moment. durable good orders up 1.1%. that is compared with a 3.3% increase in the month of march. durables ex transportation down .2%. we probably got boning in there. capital good orders, nondefense, 1.4% compares with a .6 percent drop. one of the things that was a c

we will look to michael mckee and others. it is with the famine of the federal reserve.t came up with the idea, you know john williams of the new york fed. this is thomas law about, who if you are studying economics in german, you know the german economist everyone is talking about, and that would be claudia sahm. she joins us from sahm consulting. they came up with this theoretical construct that has been a gift because we have had a lower r-star that has allowed us to have debt. claudia: they do matter. one of the big reasons the deficit -- the first year under president biden, the second year you saw as the fed raised interest rates the cost of servicing some of the debt that took a hit in the deficit. these relationships are there. we get into r-star territory i get uncomfortable because conceptually it is beautiful but our world right now is not beautiful. we have seen the fed move it around. it is hard for me to the stomach. if we get to a good place, i will take it. tom: i totally agree it is a beautiful theory. but the fact is we live in the real world and richar

rowe price michael mckee will give us a brief here. re we seeing the market crack? michael: we hope so. we saw a decline in the number of job openings last month. two months ago. it is somewhat old data but we are expecting another decline. that would be good news for the fed which is thinking that the high level of job openings is one reason we are still seeing a lot of pay increases for workers because it is hard to find them. if it continues to go down then that should take pressure off. it is still a long ways to go to we get to pre-pandemic level. lisa: they've been talking about going raising rates will more time before pausing or taking a breather. is that becoming more of a consensus now that there has not been a fuller shakeout in these smaller sector? michael: it does seem to be more consensus but voters, fed voters who have spoken are evenly divided. i think you will see friday and cpi report jobs on the 13th will be -- i would not go to the bank to what is in fed funds futures argument that there is a 65% chance of a rate in

mike mckee joins us to walk us through what these numbers are, telling us your read. michaelyou give me some extra time as you enter the number's to go through them myself. i think what we are seeing here is a sort of status quo in the service industry that supports the idea that we are not right on the cusp of a recession yet or even a significant slowdown. the services pmi takes up just a little bit, not a whole lot. business activity falls while new orders rise. there is some counterbalancing in these numbers. the employment number stays positive, which is good news. the prices paid number are basically unchanged. it does not suggest rice's are going down, which is what the fed would like to see. it puts pressure on the fed to maybe not give up the idea of future rate increases if inflation does not come down. it certainly gives them a way to say that we can pause and see what happens. alix: no reaction in the bond or stock market. bonds still a bit higher. mike, hang tight. you are going to stay with us. the federal reserve expected to give a 25 basis point hike this afte