michael keaton -- michael mckee with inflation data. people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution. i've always fought with 5-10 pounds all the time. eating all these different things and nothing's ever working. i've done the diets, all the diets. before golo, i was barely eating but the weight wasn't going anywhere. the secret to losing weight and keeping it off is managing insulin and glucose. golo takes a systematic approach to eating that focuses on optimizing insulin levels. we tackle the cause of weight gain, not just the symptom. when you have good metabolic health, weight loss is easy. i always thought it would be so difficult to lose weight, but with golo, it wasn't. the weight just fell off. i have people come up to me all the time and ask me, "does it really work?" and all i have to say is, "here i am. it works." my advice for everyone is to go with golo. it will release your fat and it will release you. tom: and in

michael mckee sees that from the retail sales data. what do you have?with retail sales. coming in on the month up by .3%. the forecast was for a .2% decline. stronger they are. and auto is up 5.4%. it is different for the unit sales, but the control group still waiting for the number two drop. that is the one economists looked at. import prices are out down .6%. expert trolling down as well. a lot of at -- petroleum down as well. and this matches expectations. we are seeing americans spend, bettel -- but at a lower rate than they did. and jobless chain -- jobless claims are unchanged. if you want to make it hard for the fed to read the labor market there is a good number for you. you to not know if last week was a freak out number or if it is now a new level. empire manufacturing has a big jump from negative 3.182 6.6. the philadelphia fed comes in at -11 after -10.4. i'm not sure what you can make out of the regional indexes to say are the opposite of each other. we will see if we can find out what is going on with retail sales. tom: many ways to go wi

eddie vander walt, michael mckee, think you very much. coming up, the question of the day, do you play the china stimulus? this is bloomberg. ♪ >> china passed a law and 21 he won to protect national data -- 2021 and they have been doing this quietly but they have restricted foreign access to parts of this database, which are really need to understand china. this month, they are putting personal data restrictions into place. you need new alternative sources of data to understand china and also is the risk premium to invest in china getting so high because you don't have the tools to do the analysis anymore that it will make china harder to invest? guy: rebecca patterson, a strategist at bridgewater associates speaking yesterday. the texas -- they are going to deliver stimulus for the housing sector. mining stocks got excited, luxury bounce back a little bit. to rebecca's point, do we understand what is happening here? is this an investable story? james athey joining us now. what do you make of the china stimulus story? feels like muscle m

michael mckee is back with us.'m sure you have run the statement through the model, what is the tone we are getting? >> it shows our natural language processing model that the semiannual policy report statement was dovish so is the first time we have had a dovish signal from any of our analysis of the fed statement using that model. that doesn't necessarily mean the fed will imminently be cutting interest rates but what it suggests is there is still this balance of risk a little more towards slower growth and risk. even if the fed does hike one more time, i don't think they will hike twice and cannot wong believes that as well. that means we are quickly approaching the end of the hiking cycle and once we get there, there could be shifts in the yield curve. alix: what is the powell play when it comes to making sure no cuts get price back in? mike: he would argue his statement is more hawkish and he would emphasize the uncertainty the fed faces with the economy right now. the question of whether they raise rates, whe

what michael mckee will see in the press conference looking out 6, 7 meetings?arket, the real estate reaction if we get to posen rate levels. tom: thank you for giving me so much surveillance time. i think the market will be negative but i don't think in the u.s. it will be disastrous. as you guys have repeatedly talked about, this is been an incredibly resilient market. in equities and in residential real estate, the loss has not been not marked. construction continues. going back to what we were saying earlier, you are going to need some kind of capitulation because -- as the side effect of being actual tightening of credit conditions. it doesn't have to be disastrous because we don't have the same fragility. as we have had in past cycles. tom: a great segment on the historic collapse of switzerland watch industry. that's how esoteric the partisan institute can get. one thing percolating is that new bout of american exceptionalism. is america exceptional? adam: and a lot of social ways he has, our racial divisions, our nativism, these are all things under deba

it we'll be a good show with our michael mckee. --i= it will be a good show with our michael mckee.rg. good morning. ♪ >> we are expecting a hike in july. we are also expecting a hike in september. after july we should see some strong inflation data. that gets us to the hike in september. tom: a minor conversation today but a major impact from veronica clark of citigroup. stay where people are heading. they have said we will have higher interest rates and resiliency of the economy as lael brainard said from the white house seems to be the tone here into the end of the second quarter. bloomberg surveillance, ferro on assignment, abramowitz getting ready for the non-:00 a.m. -- 9:00 a.m. sentra hour. remember that article on ingres loan -- on equilibrium? how is sentra different from jackson hole? michael: jackson hole is an academic conference that focuses on topics in economics. in sintra they're talking about what is going on right now in markets. sintra is more open to the press in terms of having things broadcast to the prest. at jackson hole you only the chairman speech, which i

the atlanta gdp number which michael mckee is just make it above 2% statistic. katie: there is tension and we see this in their words but then you think of the fact there were no dissents in the last meeting. then we finished the day with nike reporting after the bell. as always, the focus is on guidance. what we are going to hear about business sales in china. the stock is actually down slightly year to date. tom: futures are up nine as we start the day. what it is is nearing the end of the border and every bank and manager and chief investment officer is recalibrating. we speak with christian from deutsche bank. what is a key distinction of your set for july? question: the resent is you cannot unfortunately repeat performance of the first few months of 2023. recalibration has to be what are the earnings or the second quarter? are we entering recession? central banks are probably doing more. but 2024 in the second half comes into the discussion. tom: if revenues are under challenged every get disinflation, i believe the price effect of revenue both comes in. ca

alix: the university of michigan index breaking michael mckee is going to go through the numbers. michael: a big rise in the university of michigan's consumer sentiment index, 623 point 9% from 59.2%. the expectation was it would rise to 60. current conditions at 68, much better than the previous 64.9%. a big rise in expectations. 61.3 from 55.4%. these numbers are often influenced by stock markets, jobs and gasoline which have all been in the good news camp lately. the inflation numbers are will make the fed happy. she can one year inflation, 3.3%. it was 4.2% in the last survey. the five-year to tenure comes in at 3%, down from 3.1%, a huge drop in what people think is happening with inflation. the fed thinks expectations make a difference. this is all good news for the fed and their soft vending scenario. it should make them happy as they go off for their weekend. guy: thank you very much indeed. gasoline, you have to wonder how big a factor it has played. we have seen a significant downdraft in energy prices. are we going to see it bottom out or will it come up? let's get analy

tom: michael mckee, thank you so much. we turn to michael gates.encapsulated, the ambiguities of the moment arguments. what is the thing at the margin you are studying subject to change about american economics? what is the part of the story that interests you? michael: i think there is two parts. one is what lisa mentioned, how quickly can inflation come down, even and in -- in an environment where the market is extremely tight, per powell's words? can we get further diminishment in used prices? the same conversation we have been talking about for some time. the mirror side of that coin which powell empathize and we end others have been picking up on more would have been the bigamist has not come on inflation. it has come in the labor market, where the labor force has rebounded extremely rapidly this year. last year, the shortfall in the labor force from pre-covert projections was as high as 2 million and non-falling. by our estimate, it is down to 400 fall -- 400,000 now. the probability of a softer landing for the recession is higher and the fed

michael mckee with us this afternoon look for the president and chief executive officer.en to the people who teach us and rescue us, the people on our team and in our family. us and the people who served. the people we work late with and stay out late with. it can even happen to the person in the mirror. opioid use disorder is a disease that can happen to any of us. it's possible recovery can happen to any of us, too. back in the day, sneaker drops meant getting online to wait in line. now with xfinity mobile... ...we get the fastest mobile service and can get the freshest kicks asap. i got this. save hundreds a year over t-mobile, at&t and verizon with the best price for two lines of unlimited. nice job, little sis! they grow up so fast... i'm a fan. from xfinity. bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright. xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. it's an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a

tom: michael mckee said ask sara what to look for below the headline data.t will you be looking for at 8:30 a.m.? >> what we need to be focused on is what's happening on the labor supply front. we've seen labor demand trend down and still pretty strong but in terms of the outright path of payroll growth and homely jobs we continue to add, that depends heavily on what's happening on the supply front. you had a pretty good run in terms of labor force growth and participation over the last six months either flat or higher so will we see that continue? it suggests the labor market might have more legs and that could help the broader economy given what that means in terms of consumer spending. lisa: before we let you go, many people are seeing a slow deceleration of the economy and you can argue how quickly the fed response will be. a lot of it is becoming predictable. what tail risks do you see percolating out there, things that are keeping you up at night weather is the multifamily housing or commercial real estate? >> in some ways, we're still worried about so

michael mckee: i guess a soft landing is when bonuses are kind of lost. . you get the economists around the table and if things get perhaps more gloomy. [laughter] next, what is going on in the tech sphere. this is bloomberg. lisa mateo: here is your first word news. there will be a bahrain spree today that estimates could top $1 trillion by the end of the quarter but the replenishing process could have unwinding consequences. the bank of america has issued the debt issuance wave could have the same economic impact as an interest rate hike by the federal reserve. lose capital reserves by 20% after the collapse of smaller regional lenders this year. the revised requirements could be proposed as early as this month. they are expected to apply to lenders with at least $100 billion in assets. apple shares are going to hit an all-time high ahead of the company's worldwides developers conference today where it is going to introduce a mixed reality headsets. it is apple's most significant product launch event in nearly a decade. apple will be adding $16.5 billion

michael mckee has done a phenomenal job of explaining this.nrico and about politics. jonathan: how much bigger can the republican field get? tom: the next candidates will be at the margin. will there be enough of a stage for every candidate to get on during the first debate? lisa a: do they have enough signatures to get on the stage? tom: annmarie hordern joining us. do they have money? it takes money to run. annmarie: at the moment, they have money. if they cannot continue, they will start to peter out. to run, you also need at least 40,000 donors from 20 states or more. this is where the former president dominates. he gets low numbers but tons of them in terms of campaign donations. when you see chris christie jump in and mike pence, they need to makes for they can also get on the stage. tom: can mike pence take the evangelical vote from the president? without question, mike pence has been the most consistently evangelical politician in america. annmarie: that is his game plan. he sees this as his path in the primary to make sure he is in fr

i appreciate it, bloomberg michael mckee and brian sullivan.mong up, what needs to change as new york chokes. we will talk about it with the cio of guggenheim partners investment management. she is responsys for meeting investor needs from fixed income clients and some are insurance companies. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: you are at life pictures in new york city over bad air from wildfires. it looks like a vintage filter if you took a picture with your phone. our question of the day, what needs to change as new york chokes? will ask the chief investment officer at guggenheim partners investment manager -- management. sonali basak also joins us for the conversation. i appreciate the specific question may not be in your paygrade. you put a lot of work in for clients that are insurance companies. as we see these clients changing and have more of the events we are not prepared for, how do you think about some thing like that? anne: historically as a fixed income asset manager, we take a long view on risk. we incorporate this into our analysis and it

michael mckee is going to break down these numbers now. what have you got on these numbers? michael: headline number way below what was anticipated. some indexes coming week. ism services, 50.3 coming down from the 1.9. the expectation had been a rise to 52.4. prices paid, 56.2, down from 59.6. prices rising but at a lower rate. employment falls to 49.2 from 50.8, doesn't really match up with what we saw in the labor department';s report on friday. strong growth in services and hiring there. it does suggest that overall what we are seeing is a slowdown in the economy and the services i that goes along with the other evidence from the ism manufacturing numbers. that should support the idea that the fed could go on hold and maybe skip a meeting this december. inventories rose quite a bit. it is a little different way of looking in inventories than it is from the manufacturing side. it does suggest that companies don't have to buy more stuff. at this point it looks like what we are saying is slow down there. i should mention, factory orders come in and revised .4%. that was down

michael mckee joins us. i will today be different? michael: not a lot different.in yesterday's hearing, there was a surprising lack of political questions. most focused on banking, some on monetary policy, and not much on who is the bad guy kind of thing usually get from the house. i don't expect a lot different today but i think they will want to know what the fed might raise rates. members of the committee starting to line up. we have remarks from mickey bowman, the fed governor, who has turned into something of a hawk. she said i expect we will need to increase the federal funds rate further to achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance of monetary policy to meaningfully and durably bring inflation down, so powell still has a number of people on his side. raphael bostic taking the other side yesterday, but so far, it looks like the fed is still poised to raise interest rates again. guy: other central banks are back hiking and hiking hard. does that give the fed cover to be more aggressive? mike: i don't think they need cover. it is the biggest central bank in th

lisa: tom: michael mckee makes news. down in flames. thank you for the non-news.ias in new york and outrageous real estate costs here. it's healthy to go to the internet and look at the unemployment rate of wichita for the unemployment rate of four worth. it's informative. lisa: i was glad you brought up the wage disinflation, the cost of employment coming in, people have not given up on the immaculate disinflation story yet. that's becoming clear with some of the data we are getting today despite the strengthen labor market. tom: wichita, kansas is a ticket lower than columbus, ohio. if you care about the dollar, stay with us, stephen englander from standard chartered is next. futures are flat, this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: keeping you up-to-date with newsmen around the world -- the house passed debt limit legislation that would impose restraints on government spending through the 2024 election. lawmakers from both parties joints to approve the bill 314-117 wednesday evening. >> tonight, we all made history because this is the biggest cut in savings this congress ha

. >> [inaudible] >> reporter: michael michael mckee, bloomberg radio and television. you said in the past that you don't like to surprise markets, it's kind of been the fed's view markets should have an idea what you're going to do before you go in. you've also said a number of times that it would take a while to bring inflation down. you reiterated that again today and we'd get to the point where inflation could be sticky. is i'm wondering as we go into the next meetings how wall street or others should look at your reaction function. what will you be reacting to, time or data? in other words, if nothing much changes, if we're looking at the same sort of labor market, the same sort of inflation levels many july or in septembe

they are serious about the papers and michael mckee is all over this stuff.tra is like a modern conference. we are selling this, help us out here. we will take ferro if he comes back. the really serious thing and the conversation stopped there is g dr.opinath said we don't really know in july whatever update looks like. there was a pause there in the conversation. lisa: it seems that people are speculating in markets and the economy but it will happen quickly. we heard about this rapid disinflation from morgan stanley. a lot of the market prognosticators and economists don't want to come out with the surgeon and follow the price action. that's what we keep hearing from a lot of people in the market as they reassess. we like markets now because the mood has shifted. is this just price dictating? tom: michaeldarda encapsulated this yesterday. he had bulls behind him but he said if it's disinflation with the imf declining real gdp as well, others are more optimistic on that. coming up next, looking to july, the chief fx strategist s atopgen and we will speak to

tom: michael mckee with her economic coverage., the judge in the case has set a date for the trial august 14. it's going to be about two weeks starting august 14. it is very much front and center aside from the political drama. my key question, how much have we seen at bottom? tom: mr. trump said he would not participate in the debates. this is a real sign of the end of this terrible pandemic. we all agree, we want to be like peter huber ensconced in new hampshire. he is deutsche's bank economics. i'm going to rip up the script. what were your thoughts with all of your experience of the international monetary fund to see the three year and five year outlook of economic growth from the institution? is that cautious view valid ? peter: we are still facing a global inflation problem. we had a little taste of that last week from jay powell. i think certainly the u.s., europe, the u.k. especially looking out inflation that is persistently sticky at the core level. we have seen significant changes , it is easy to get inflation down from

michael mckee will give the answers. what is it? i wish i knew because i would be able to tell julian how to bet for the fed meeting. the problem is inflation has stalled out in the u.s. in the fed thinks it's going to go back down again but that is what they thought in australia. then inflation came back and they felt they were forced to raise rates. they came out with a statement that reads like we are going to see from the fed, that further rate adjustments may be necessary depending on how the economy evolves. they are leaving their options open to go the other way further. the expectation numbers don't tell you much. it is largely based on what people are seeing with energy prices. gasoline and that sort of thing. those are likely to turnaround as gas prices go up. saudi arabia cutting production. we could see changes. the final point i would make is inflation numbers are backward looking that they are all the central banks have to make their decisions. if we get a big number next week, which we are not supposed to according to

. >> [inaudible] >> reporter: michael michael mckee, bloomberg radio and television. you said in the past that you don't like to surprise markets, it's kind of been the fed's view markets should have an idea what you're going to do before you go in. you've also said a number of times that it would take a while to bring inflation down. you reiterated that again today and we'd get to the point where inflation could be sticky. is i'm wondering as we go into the next meetings how wall street or others should look at your reaction function. what will you be reacting to, time or data? in other words, if nothing much changes, if we're looking at the same sort of labor market, the same sort of inflation levels many july or in september or november, will you move? because you've said you feel you need to? if is it time that's going to require additional movement, or would it be reversal with inflation? >> so i don't want to deal with hypotheticals about different ways day data -- data might move. of course, we don't go out of our way to surprise markets or the public. at the s

also hazardous is going to michael mckee for the claims data when it is not there.the smoke has asked lisa: yeah, breaking news. [laughter] mike: maybe they laid off the person that is supposed to put it into the system. 261 thousand. , so a significant change in the number of jobless claims. that is about 30,000 more than we had in the prior week. i'm looking for the revision that comes over more slowly. 1,000,500 700,000 -- not claim gets paid and not everybody stays on jobless claims, so that is not unusual, but 261,000 is a fairly impressive number in the sense of, we are looking for a decline. he was the revision. 233,000. it is a gain of 28,000 in the week. it is one week, and it is not worth changing all of your views on the fed and markets faced on one week's data. lisa: let's do it anyway. [laughter] mike: yeah, tom is going to do it anyway. this is the start of a trend that is good news for the fed in a sense. tom is whispering. they do not want to see people lose jobs, but they expect the labor market to weaken. tom: where is the number for you in your he

only one person i know, expert on cpi, ppi, and that is michael mckee to help us with the business inflationing. ppi final demand falls .3% which is a drop for index of .2% a month before. waiting for the details to drop but i am sure it is probably energy related. their energy -- core rate x energy food and trade come in flat at 0.0 percent down .2% gain. both numbers below what analysts had expected. year-over-year final demand falls to 1.1%. historical on that in a second. the core false 2.8% -- falls 2.8% for the year. we are seeing a big drop in prices at wholesale level. they do not translate this directly -- directly into consumer prices because middleman has some say but it is a sign lower-level price from bottom up prices are starting to fall backwards. it will he reinforce the fed idea that maybe they pause today . tom: i would do the markets right now. equity market there is a lift but not all that much. bond market it is a boom moment. two year yield comes in nicely. what i have here is a readjustment on the 10 year tip from 1.60 down nicely to 1.97 handle. currencies really move