live on bloomberg television and doi am joining -- with michael mckee and austan goolsbee. get us started. mike: thank you sonali and thank you to everyone watching us around the world including austan goolsbee. thank you for joining us mr. president. hiring job precipitously, the unemployment rate shoots up more than anticipated. everyone wants to know did the fed make a mistake by not cutting rates on wednesday? austan: well, look, i am not going to get myself into trouble and talk about what people are thinking from the meeting. you will have to wait for the transcript to come out to see what was on people's minds. i have been saying to you mike for a long time and publicly that we have never wanted to overreact to anyone month's numbers. if you back up to the last half of 2023 then you know that the market said that there might be seven cuts for the year. and then when a month with come -- blood come in and then that seven would drop to three and then maybe an increase in rates. the job is to figure out the through line and to move in a steady way. i have been warning t

that is michael mckee.he sure to tune into bloomberg this afternoon with this interview with san francisco fed president mary daly. exclusively at -- >> p.m. eastern time. in this week, nvidia earnings are looming large. the company has had a historic run-up but investors will be looking to see if the company is reporting continued revenue performance and positive outlook. you can see nvidia data center segment estimated to come in at $25 billion for the quarter and we're going to be joined now by mandeep singh who clutters -- covers global technology. that is really the money number. what are you expecting relative to consensus and why? >> i mean, there will be a deep related to consensus. look, they've done that for the past six quarters, and even going into this quarter, the question is by how much. the good thing is we have received a couple of data points from all the hyper scalars raising their. those are the things that matter if they want to sell more. the one negative was black getting delayed. in

michael mckee joins us for more.wyoming still has a two handle south of 3%. is he speaking for his district or the country? michael: i think he was largely speaking for his district, making the point that the 10th district has a strong economy at this point and that the ceos of companies in the district are telling him they still see demand and they still see it growing. they don't see a huge slow down. but that is one reason he is still somewhat reluctant on inflation. he sees anna demand that they will tell you, if they had to, they could raise prices. mohamed: he said, "before we act, at least before i recommend that, i think we need to see a little bit more." so he must be with the vast majority of people who would like to cut in september, are you surprised? michael: no. he did confirm he was not part of the vast majority, but this district has always been inflation focused, whether it was the president of georgia before him, they always looked at inflation is the bigger problem, so it does not surprise me he ta

now michael mckee will join us from jackson hole for more on the speech from fed chair powell and being on the ground and seeing the reactions from the people, the fed governors and investors, how do they feel about the ripple effects that the speech is having? mike: nobody was surprised, at least on the central banking side. they all agree that it is time to start thinking about adjusting policy. the market reaction has john -- drawn quizzical looks because they thought the markets knew that. they are not happy about it because the stock market is up and bond yields are down, doing part of the fed's work for them. sonali: there seems to be a diversion and what people expect the first got to look like, whether 25 or 50 would be alarming or a line with expectations given what the fed chair set about the job market. how do you read the tea leaves? sonali: the chairman -- mike: the chairman did not give us a sign one way or another but he sounded dovish and saying the fed would do whatever it takes. you can read the possibility of 50 basis point cuts into that. but members of the open mark

michael mckee, bloomberg, jackson hole, wyoming. >> we have plenty more coverage come to you from jackson hole. we have had not just jay powell's latest today but fed speak from others on this week signaling two of them that gradual and methodical rate cuts are come. let's get more from garfield recommends. this is pretty cautious language hit he hadding into jackson hole. do you think has the tone we're going to hear from powell when he speaks later? what does he have to say to not upset the market? >> the biggest thing he would say that might upset the market would be if he came out sounding like he wasn't ceretain that a rate cut was coming. i don't think he is going to take that sort of tack. it would be unusual when you have had the minutes showing there was a strong constituency to cut in september. his colleagues putting cutting on the able. especially if he doesn't want to upset the markets. he has mostly shown he is not interested in that. he will speak from the same basicset that the fed does think it is appropriate to cut rates. they said all along this year they thought they w

here is michael mckee. >> economists got this one right.t as forecast. base effects are somewhat hard to miss. even though we are in wine with the headline number, we see it drop on a year-over-year basis to two point 9% from 3%. that is better than expected, and 3.2% on the core on a year-over-year basis, also better-than-expected. and that may have to do with their rounding that lisa was talking about before we came on. taking a look at some of the number see her, we see food prices of 2/10, same as last month. food has really come down as an overall issue. gasoline prices were flat on the month. we saw in the ppi gas prices were up and that pushover all goods prices up. new vehicles down to tenths and used cars down 2.3%. those are kind and is expected by analysts. shelter costs of double what we saw in june. we will have to see how that breaks down. >> gave a second to go through some of the details. hard to know exactly what to do with this. marginally a little bit of a pop on the s&p 500. bond yields kind of fluctuating although a lit

reporter: michael mckee, bloomberg radio and television. i would like to ask about the balance of risks as the american people see it. at is the -- at this point, is the risk greater to leave interest rates where they are given the damage that higher interest rates do to the economy in slowing demand and raising prices, or is it more important for the american people that you keep rates where they are to bring inflation down? chair powell: i think we have been given an assignment by congress. this is how we serve the american people, is buy achieving maximum employment and price stability. right? and so, in our quasi-constitutional document, that states our long-run goals of monetary policy strategy, we look at the two goals and if one of them is further away than the other, the two variables, inflation and employment, if one is further away from its gold on -- from its goal than the other then you concentrate on , the one that is further away. so on the last couple of years, the best service we could do to the american people was to focus

joining us now is michael mckee.previous months. mike: except -- [laughter] lisa: come on. mike: we heard a lot from rafael bostic so i don't think we will be getting a lot more. st. louis hasn't spoken much at all since he took office at the beginning of the summer, so it will be interesting to hear what he has to say about it. probably the most interesting aspect of fed speak recently was over the weekend with the fed governor, mickey bowman, saying that even if we get the numbers we are expecting, we might not need to cut rates yet. as one analyst put it this morning. there are two things here. one, there is what the numbers say and two, with the fed reaction to the numbers are. we will get the market reaction to the numbers but we really need to hear from someone like jay powell or john williams for four people have a good idea of what we will see in september. dani: do we need to coalesce around cpi? given what bowman said? mike: unless there is a big surprise, i would point to retail sales. the reason being we

michael mckee has been looking through all of the data points.l's -- sales it is the shrift -- safed into discretionary to staple spending if you expect the economy to be slowing down and it is distorted somewhat by auto sales because of the shutdown of the internet in june. the other things that stand out are that when you look at the jobless claims numbers the biggest declines over the past week were in texas and michigan. it shows that it was these know factors. the hurricane and the plant shutdowns. so we were back to where we were before july. and the last thing i would point out is that in the philly fed number like the empire number, hours worked went down. you are looking at weaker manufacturing and companies cutting back on hours and not people which reflects a slowing economy. lisa: thank you so much but let us get you an update on stories elsewhere. >> let us recap all of the data starting with u.s. retail sales advancing by more than forecast in july waking to a brazilian consumer even in the face of high prices and borrowing costs. s

we have some fed speak to your there was a real absent of fear with michael mckee and mary daly yesterday afternoon. we have a solid labor market. that is the take away from the federal reserve. annmarie: we are slowing but we are not falling off of a cliff. mary daly yesterday, potentially the fed will go before september. not going to happen. we have confirmed that the labor market is slowing. they have confirmed it. it's important that we not let it slow so much that it tips into a downturn. she is setting the market up for september but she is not saying that the labor market has massive cracks and we should see the exuberance we saw the market. it is slowing but not falling off a cliff. jonathan: i started the program yesterday by saying let's take a giant step back. let's do that again. let's frame some of the moves we have seen. deutsche bank, "what a once-in-a-lifetime gse period could not do in 2024 with one bad by the related payrolls print for fuel giving us some ease period of time yesterday." what would have happened if we had a negative payroll print? jim read of deutsche ba

again, it is hard to read too much into one data point, like michael mckee was saying. look at the headline number, or economists expect another 200,000-ish jobs being created, and the unemployment rate might take up -- tick up. the most important number tomorrow's going to be there employment rate. if that goes up that is going to send out a lot of barrels. jonathan: are we already in a recession if we go to 4.2%? subadra: not really. i mean, there are many indicators of a recession, and almost everyone of those indicators has proven not to be a good predictor of recessions. to me, the one metric i track very closely is corporate profit margins. and corporate profit margins are still relatively healthy. as michael mckee pointed out, if it is because there is more people entering the workforce, higher participation rate, then that is something we might want to dismiss. lisa: greg peters of pgim also with us. i'm curious what your reaction is to these numbers, given the balance of risk, the fed believes, is measured. the labor market is a mystery but certainly showing si

with economic data here is michael mckee. michael: some good news.ted in the 247,000 that was the whisper number. we are retreating back a little bit. that is not unexpected. we have seasonal adjustment effects in the month of july and that seems to be what is happening will stop continuing claims, 1,875,000. that is down from the previous reported. the previously reported initial jobless claims last week revised up to 250,000. it makes the drop a little bit more. 17,000. it is a drop in that number. i am waiting for my numbers to come up for the nonseasonally adjusted. it takes a while with the internet and i will bring that to you in just a second. jonathan: i will go across to the equity market. this is so much weight the equity market was putting on this number. we are up .6%. gives you 90 of how much weight some market participants were putting on this number. the russell up 1.4%. we will see if the numbers hold. yesterday they did not. in the bond market treasuries lower, yields higher. up five basis points on the two year. on the 10 year are u

prison goolsby and michael mckee. i imagine that interview has changed after that data. what comes next in a month where there is maybe going to be speeches although no one at the fed has speeches scheduled for next week. we have rates on the end of the month tear from chairman powell. it is no meeting in the month of august. so if these numbers coming in poorly. what does the fed do about that? mohamed: do we get any speakers between now and -- michael: we have the schedule for the board of governors. they are on vacation. i hope they have a good time. jonathan: all the data points between now and jackson hole. a few more jobless claims, a cpi print in the mix as well. you look, a base case for 50's on the table for september. we been through a couple of these growth scares in the past. do you think 50 is on the table for september? michael: i still do not think so. i think that would be read as panic. obviously they will have another hundred thousand jobs and unemployment continues going up that could change everything but as of today they will say we've a lot of data i

michael mckee is here. what have we got? michael: housing starts followed by 6.8%.1.5% decline. last month, they grew by 3%. starts down 4%. the forecast was for 2%. it looks like builders are not confident in their ability to sell these houses or get them built, if you look at the charts for the number of houses under construction. they have come down at a time when they are having trouble finding construction workers. that may be part of it. also, affordability is difficult. it is not a good housing situation. this.w annmarie is this is more of a political issue because everybody is upset they cannot buy health. -- by houses. lisa: especially if there is no entry point to the housing market. you are seeing some declines ahead of the open. it does seem like maybe on a quiet summer friday people are trading on anything. it does raise the question about how much of this does reflect the housing market stuck in two difficult places. on one hand, it is getting more costly to build houses with less optimism. on the other, affordability is low considering how high rates

jonathan: michael mckee, we will be the grammar police. lindsay plays a joins us now.cpi report gives the fed and the chairman space to validate some of the market pricing going into september? lindsay: it certainly gives the fed more wiggle room to move forward with a rate cut. the fed, when we look to jackson hole, will continue to reiterate the data-dependent stance. the market has clearly been overreacting. we have seen the market calling for a larger than 50 basis point cut. i think the data come the strength and retail sales, the strengthen jobless claims justified with the improvement in the cpi and ppi and coupled with volatility in market reactions, i think chair powell will keep his cards close to the best in reiterate that data dependent stance that we need to see confirmation of this further disinflationary trend and further data points between now and the september fomc meeting. lisa: it is a bold idea, the idea that it is the question so many people have been asking. how effective is the transmission of monetary policy? do you think they will say, given a

lisa: how bad is this economy and that is the question at a time we saw mary daly rerate with michael mckeeurther weakening in the labor market is not welcome, they do not welcome further cooling, so what is the threshold to move in a more significant way? how far ahead of this do we get? there are two cams of analysts. one saint 200 basis points of rate cuts through the end of this year implies significant weakening. there other people that imply the rate is low enough that 200 points of bases cuts will get us closer to neutral. it is unclear which camp will win out. i did not have a handle for much inflationary pressures left in the system and to jobless claims tomorrow how much weakness there is in a system where we have not stated in the headline data. jonathan: our survey coming together. 233,000 is the estimate for jobless claims. over the last three weeks before this we have had these reads that are pretty contained. if you think about what's spooked this market, unemployment going up a little bit more in jobs coming in at 114,000. 114 is not a terrible data point but we got blessed

bostic later this week as well as the san francisco fed president airee daily sitting down with michael mckeeeastern time. see how much distance they like there is between chairman powell and the rest of the later on. nasa announcing it won't send astronauts home from the international space station on bowen starliner, instead tapping spacex to handle the mission. the recovery is slated to launch in late september which would have the astronauts back on u.s. soil in february, months later than initially planned. what an embarrassing moment for boeing. lisa: and it comes after billions of dollars of losses tied to all sorts of snafus and hiccups in their space program. it real question now, soul-searching for the new ceo who coming into a whole host of problems. does he jettison the space program? and how much does the was government want to foster some sort of competitive process to ensure that there aren't the same kind of glitches and issues that keep astronauts in space for six months longer? jonathan: what a win for musk. lisa: and coming from in administration with some tense relations w

michael mckee still with us here, our economics correspondent.ange was that services prices went down while goods prices went up largely because of gasoline, but we also saw passenger car prices fall to tenths. telecare prices basically flat, insurance prices basically flat. the big increase in the numbers came from portfolio management. collies causing inflation at this point. but fully a man rose 2.3%. one of the biggest moves in the whole ppi. the fact that he became either way. works out. >> matt is still with us and can respond. what do you make of the details? >> as i signaled, maybe the most important thing with health care being flat. health into the pcp is 20% of the core pce index, basically as important as rent and oer. we have been signaling some upside risk to that because it tends to be leveraged on health care wage growth which has been restrung. as a read through, that is a very good indicator for the fed. >> i've been looking at the interest rate probability lower and lower. not a dramatic move but you are saying it is about 50-5

jonathan: mike mckee. michael: it sounds like jay powell. jay powell and all this week all i hear is nvidia. jonathan: we are doing a payrolls party. lisa: do you feel left out or forgotten? michael: it will all be about the payroll indicators, the labor market indicators, jobless claims, jolts, adp and of course non-fun payrolls per the fed has said we are looking at the labor market to make our decision on the 18th of what we do from here and we have pretty good news today on the inflation side so unless something happens it won't be a big cpi move before they meet. the labor market will get a lot of clues this week jonathan: -- this week. jonathan: pretty unsettling for a lot of people, manufacturing ism, the employment component of that. jobless claims, the payroll support. have we put that to bed? anything outstanding for you? michael: the surprise might be in the manufacturing side. we saw in the numbers today that manufacturing wages went down which suggests some real weakness. we will see that in the ism numbers coming up. we will se