michael mckee was able to speak with austan goolsbee. austan: this job number's today and it is a superb report. you could not ask for a better report. i still think as a central bank, do not want to react too much to one month's report. vonnie: joining us now is michael mckee, so as austan goolsbee said you could not ask for a better report but that is if you are just looking at the jobs data. was this about -- the best outcome for today? michael: it does suggest that we will have a soft landing or that we are in one as austan goolsbee said. the economy really neverland's. the numbers were unbelievable and everybody was shocked. 254,000 jobs created. and july and august were revised up by a total of 72,000. the interesting number, unemployment rate. wall street took that as an omen of no big moves in the fed funds rate because you look down at the three decimal unemployment and we were about .5 away from a 4% handle. the market reaction as expected, the three-month moving average for jobs numbers and it has all of a sudden ticked up aft

vonnie: for more we are joined by bloomberg's michael mckee. take us into some of the subcomponents of this data. what showed strength or expansion. michael: we start with the headline, the highest since february last year, and that seem to come out of nowhere. we have strong orders for services and business activity. prices paid were also strong. there is inflation and a good growth component to all of this. the thing that will catch a lot of peoples i, you heard sarah talking about it, tomorrow we get the payrolls report. the jobs number for the services industries went down below 50 for the first time in a while to 48.1. does that suggest we will see week hiring and will that worry the fed? that is something we will have to see after we get the number out. we have a lot of crosscurrents going on in the labor market these days. one good news from the labor market is jobless claims coming in at 2.25, that is up from 200 -- 225,000, up from 219,000. seasonally adjusted and nonseasonally adjusted were down. it does not look like companies were la

michael mckee. would put it in the 150 range but only because i do not have a better gas than consensus at this point. like i have said several times it may not matter because the real number that matters is the one we get before the next fed meeting. dani: that is going to be a complicated number because of strikes, because of hurricane impacts. how should we be looking at the figures without knowledge? will it be a choose your own adventure because you can assign any narrative to it. michael: we will see with the other numbers are but the fed has said they are watching the payrolls numbers. if we get a really bad number than people may just say it was a bad number. the unemployment rate is not affected by the strikes. that probably will not go jumping, it might rise for other reasons. it will be hard to say how people and how the fed, how voters and everybody will react to something four days before the election. annmarie: you think the fed is concerned about what we are seeing in the middle east

michael mckee will be in that room.the election that will be ignored? mike: 8:30, friday morning, we get the jolts numbers, will be know who the president is by the time we get the jobs numbers? it will still be hanging over everybody for days. jonathan: payrolls this friday and then the election on tuesday. federal reserve two days later. how noisy is that data going to be from the payrolls data? mike: a good chance it is noisy because we have the ongoing bowling strike, and it's been going long enough that it may spread to other industry suppliers of bowling, people that have snack bars near boeing, that kind of thing. we also have the hurricane issue. we don't know how many people will be out of work because of the two hurricanes. we saw a one-week spike in jobless claims and then it went back down. is it going to be bad or not? bloomberg economics things we could have a -10,000 print. there is one estimate for 180,000 jobs created. probably in the consensus of about 100,000, 110,000 will be the way to bet but we jus

it's bring in michael mckee, bloomberg international economics and policy correspondent who will be breaking those minutes later on from the fed. do think there is anything martial -- anything marginal or extra we might learn from today's minutes? michael: it will be interesting perhaps more so than the and it's usually are because we will be able to get a sense of how many people were on one side or the other and how it came together to do a 50 basis point cut. why they thought that was important and what they thought the economy would get out of it. everybody on wall street once to know what we might learn about what they are going to do next. what markers are they looking for and what kind of policy options are they considering. is another 50 something that is even on the table? vonnie: we know mick millman dissented and she has spoken since then to we don't know other discussions went on around choosing the 50 basis points and we know fed chair powell can have quite the strong voice himself. since then there has been no consensus on whether that was the best move for the economy or not.

michael mckee back for more.eard from gregory daco that the only speech that matters is chairman powell? michael: we will get a sense for the committee is and if powell will be tracking people but we have to hear from powell to get a sense of where he is. dani: what will take on more important? fed speech or cpi or minutes? michael: the minutes will matter because we will want to know what they are thinking about the trajectory. cpi will be important as a data point. i think hurricane milton could have an impact, not just on politics, but these two hurricanes could be so big. normally you get a rebuilding boost to gdp but this could be spread out because it is so large and that could affect the gdp, shopping data, everything going into november. nobody in the asheville area is going out and buying a lot of stuff now and that could be true in tampa. you could see impacts on the data going forward. annmarie: could the hurricane impact to the next jobs report? michael: it could. anybody in western north carolina or

jonathan: michael mckee, i want to sit on one number. the number is 216. -- 216,000.eeks about the labor market, noise. what noise really meant, though, was weakness. what weakness you can look through. we are going into payrolls with jobless claims at 216,000. how on earth are we at 216,000 and economists are saying, get ready to discount jobs numbers tomorrow, you will see a strike impact, a be some noise regarding the election? how do you frame 216,000 this morning? mike: it is hard to put it in the context of a feeling you are going to see a problem in the labor market, but the thing you can look at is the fact that the jobless claims present last week and the hurricanes were at the beginning of the month. this represents unemployed people who were filing first-time claims versus people who are no longer on the payrolls. which we will find out about tomorrow. two different things, but companies are not laying off people yet. does not look like the economy is going to be in terrible shape. the thing we need to look at when we look at this is the number of continuin

we break it down on bloomberg tv with michael mckee and we will catch up with lindsay on the economym new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ with so much great entertainment out there... wouldn't it be easier if you could find what you want, all in one place? my favorites. get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month. jonathan: 60 minutes from the opening bell, cash open just around the corner. down for tens of 1%. internet 50 seconds time, jobless claims data. mike mckee this winter break that down for you to year, 360 five. the number we are looking for in our survey, 220 one. the previous week, 218. this crossover to mike mckee. >> one of those mornings for the data are slow coming out, but here we go. 200 25,000 jobless claims last week, up from 219,000. that was revised up from 218. basically we are in the ballpark of where we have been for some time now, and it really doesn't tell us anything about where we are. in terms of the overall labor market, other than companies are not letting people go. this is obviously a seasonally adjusted

jonathan: mike mckee, you got a final word on the data you just saw. michaeleast south-central part of the united states, a loss of 13,000 jobs. so that is probably hurricane related, but we lost 6000 jobs in new england. i am not sure what that is about. the weather was really nice in september. jonathan: how did you process the data from yesterday? for jobs to be that work at a time when the people numbers that once were so good? michael: it is a reflection of it. if more people get hired, there will be fewer job openings. they do not match up exactly. jonathan: you don't see this as a reflection of technical weakness, the numbers we saw yesterday? michael: it was just one number. what was interesting was consumer sentiment. why is that rising? maybe it is due to the election and the fact that everyone is happy it is almost over. lisa: i am sure a lot of people would be some of that it with that but which is more accurate, the jolts data or the consumer sentiment? this is a far cry from what we saw the last period. michael: i would focus on the jobs diffusio