we will be talking about twitter with michael nathanson of moffat nathanson. what this means for tesla as well for twitter firmly or in early trading. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. for our audience worldwide, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. it could be one of the biggest internet acquisitions ever. bloomberg lynch twitter is in the final stretch of negotiations about a $43 billion sale to elon musk. an agreement could be reached as soon as today of negotiations go smoothly. musk met with twitter executives sunday. the company started warming up to a potential deal after a financing plan. secretary of state antony blinken and defense secretary lloyd austin met with ukraine's president volodymyr zelenskyy in kyiv late sunday night and promised more military aid. the u.s. also says it would start sending diplomats back to ukraine. in france, emmanuel macron has won another shot at convincing the public that his pro-business, pro-

tom: this is craig moffett and michael nathanson. we reviewed the anr screen of the bloomberg terminal, which shows the hope that is still out there. there is a growth enus to the adjusted price targets of netflix. how do you construct that this morning? jonathan: what seems tricky to me is that every single quarter i am looking at says $300 price targets. deutsche's bank cutting their targeted 3625. the price target goes to 300 bridwell's target -- 300. wells fargo's price target is 300. 300 is the new round number on the south side. tom: alsace 300 redye don't know. i guess it is about advertising revenue, blah blah blah. are they going to raise rates of the monthly netflix? jonathan: can they do that? if people are counting, because of inflation, what they have to do is caching. lisa: your kids are glued to netflix. is that what they're doing when i am not home? what they are going to say it is a cash flow story and not a growth story. to your point, when you switch to that, given the fact that you are looking at trying to capture

kriti: michael nathanson of moffettnathanson, always a pleasure. here is mark crumpton with "first word" news. mark: a warning from russian president vladimir putin. he told russian lawmakers there will be "a lightning fast response" if the request interferes with the war in ukraine. that follows comments this week by the russian foreign minister sergei lavrov there is a serious risk of nuclear war over ukraine. united states called lavrov's marks "the height of a response ability." federal agents have arrested the head of archegos, which clamped after the market turned against its position. bill hwang and his former cfo have been charged with fraud. the collapse led to billions in losses for investors. former president trump is a killing a new york judge's ruling holding hint--appealing a new york judge's ruling holding him in contempt of court for failing to comply with the subpoena by the state attorney general. the challenge, filed wednesday in manhattan, seeks reversal of a naval 25 finding that mr. trump violated a court-order to deadline to

wedbush, and of course, michael nathanson, who may join us later this morning. right now, somebody who absolutely crushed this call -- neutral forever, like 2.5 years with a recent underperformance, but flat out, he is basically never said by necklace. timothy nolan is joining us. out of london, with j.p. morgan. he is the australian shop. tim nolan, what did you see on october 2019 where you said run? tim: we had a buy rating on netflix going into the time when the steering war really got underway way. -- underway. we downgraded to a neutral around the time disney plus was launching. the rationale was simple and it is coming to bear very clearly, which is more competition from major content analysis, going to record the consumer, it will keep the pressure on netflix. it takes away from their ability to add subs as progressively as they did for years and years, and it will raise the pressure on content costs. we have seen all that come to bear very clearly, especially in the last two quarters. yesterday, last night's results from netflix were really the same thi

joining us this morning, senior managing director michael nathanson has been right on the disney call so far this year down 10% so far this year, michael, as the opening trade gets overlooked. what did you think of jim's comments >> yeah, carl, i was laughing to get on the bus [ laughter ] >> so to me, the bus is not on the park story the park story we know the park story is really, really strong we went down there this week and saw it my question with disney and more broadly in media is just streaming, right carl, that's my question that i've been asking for the past couple years is streaming a good business disney really needs to get a lot accomplished the next few years to hit the targets they put out so, you know, i'm not going to dispute the reopening trade. the park story is great. i'm having a hard time thinking about is this a good business to be in and will they get to their goals that they laid out a year and a half ago >> yeah, i think it was one of the actually raging debate now about disney is about content management strategy, whether they should go broad, which i guess

netflix, the stock du jour, we will catch up with michael nathanson of moffitt nathanson.a select group that has always been skeptical about the netflix profit model. it will be interesting. i know he had been doing the media rounds. where all of those price targets are coming in, i will really watch what these people are looking at, how do they reset? jonathan: yesterday, people were tempted to buy into their earnings after a move of 40% year to date. down another 27%. there will be even more people to buy this now. that will be the question for mr. nathanson, is now the time to buy? we would argue not yet. we are still uncertain about what the revenue base looks like. tom: it is real simple. the way you learn not to buy into a fed announcement or earnings announcement, is to enjoy losing money when you buy into the announcement. i have enjoyed losing money. jonathan: i'm not sure how many people have enjoyed it is morning, losing money on this stock. down more than 27%. equity futures are doing ok, up .4%. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up t

jonathan: michael nathanson, great to catch up with him yesterday, of moffitt nathanson.flix again lower by 3.4%, does not quite as much as yesterday session. up 0.9% on the s&p. helped up by one name on the nasdaq, helped out by tesla in the premarket, doing nicely this morning, up by 7.5%. tom: what we are trying to do here at "surveillance" is talk to the smartest people on wall street on this. people keep score. dan ives is a complete pain because he has been so right on big tech, often voted -- often quoted, but i want you to go to the debacle of the last 24 hours including tesla. muggle packed her nailed it -- michael baxter nailed it on netflix. jonathan: we were trying to figure out whether we have a netflix problem or a market problem. which is it? daniel: i think it is a netflix problem. the work from home beneficiaries will continue to trade down. that is catch a falling knife. microsoft, cyber, semis is going to lead tech higher. net clicks is clearly a have not. it is not a market problem. it is a company specific. jonathan: facebook was down yesterday by 7.8

jonathan: the words of michael nathanson of moffat me fincen. from the -- of moffat nathanson.m new york city this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down 0.4%. a big day for tech earnings. warner bros. discovery ported earnings a little bit earlier. on the earnings call, "we will not overspend to drive subscriber growth. we could launch an advertising only service outside of the united states." tom: with the stock price, i would suggest on their synergy the word is we will speed up. i think they will move absolute light speed. they really don't have a choice. we have a choice, which is to talk foreign exchange. that always leads us to the competencies jordan rochester, nomura international. about three tottenham wins ago, jordan time on -- jordan came on and said euro weaker. what is the point for euro weakness where not so much the politics and jawboning clicks in, but the financial system starts to feel the stress? are we there at 1.05, or is it a true parity call? jordan: that is a good question. that was something i

jonathan: that is exactly what michael nathanson said yesterday about netflix. david, great to catch up as always. david bailin of citi global wealth. lisa: the why is going to be interesting. to the netflix point, to the equities point, if you think duration has value here, does that push you back into stocks, or does that go in the opposite direction because it tends possibly some sort of recession or slow down? tom: to both of you, because i am in triple leveraged all-cash, how lonely is bank of america in the david balin call right now? jonathan: i think they are pretty lonely at the moment. we still got to work out what qt means for this bond market. i think that is really difficult still because when asked that question of people in the bond market, there is still a big divide. people start to nibble away. i imagine the team at pgim are probably on that side of the trade as well, looking at what bank of america is saying to do and listening to david bailin too. lisa: i do wonder what this means going forward and how they are going long duration. jonathan:

tom: michael nathanson is scheduled somewhere this morning.ow on china and the challenges, critic of death -- kriti gupta. kriti: we've got to talk about this potential for a beijing lockdown. here in the states and across commodity markets, something to keep in mind is what this is doing to the apple -- the actual stock market. how cheap is cheap enough to buy the debt? we are looking at the msci china and x going all the way back to 2007, and looking at their pe ratio. we are doing something a little fancy here, using standard deviations. the p/e ratio has dropped one standard deviation. it speaks to just how much weakness is in the stock market. " surveillance" has been talking about the week offshore renminbi. when you look at the cheapness of this market, is it enough to catch that did? right now -- that bid? right now, it does not look like it is. tom: joshua sharfstein joins us now, vice dean of johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. of course, mr. bloomberg, his acquaintance with this network and television program as well. i

big interview with michael nathanson writes the vision of the future was clear to do the deal now comesd part executing on the strategy. neutral rating target of 27. >> it's quite a basket of properties they have, but i wonder how they're going to approach this subscription versus advertising balance in digital that seems to have shifted pretty rapidly over the last couple of quarters. as we have been talking about it, as inflation has spiked and seemingly consumers are less willing to continue forking over subscription dollars for so many services, carl >> yeah. not to mention the international growth possibilities, jon. that's been sort of the classic streaming story strengthen domestically, leads the companies to do more overseas and see if that plays into this as well. >> yep. >>> meantime, moving on to chips. tracking weakness in the semiconductors the nasdaq down nearly 2%. four of the largest u.s. chip makers nvidia, intel, amd and micron losing combined $110 billion in market value. nvidia down more than 5% just this month off of a downgrade about 5.5. wedbush analyst matt bryso

we'll talk with michael nathanson in the next hour don't go away. charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most. plus, zero-dollar commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. [ding] get e*trade and start trading today. never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers, plus some of the lowest options in futures contracts prices around. [ding] get e*trade and start trading today. >>> 431,000 jobs nice sound to it we also learned that in january and february our economy created 100,000 more jobs than we previously had thought that means that over the last three months, the economy created more than a half million, more than 500,000 jobs a month. over the course of my presidency, our recovery has created 7.9 million jobs more jobs created over the first 14 months of any presidency in any term ever and that's striking, but what's even more striking is this, in march the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% down from 4.6% when i took office 15 months ago th

earlier we spoke with michael nathanson.whether there are any strategic buyers out there that would be willing to pay that price or even have interest in buying it, not to mention when i did the math on private equity given the size of this company, given the lack of cash flow from it, it becomes a very difficult deal to imagine, despite what have been headlines of at least some interest, so to speak, from big private equity firms it's hard to see how that could actually work given the equity check that would have to be written and the number of firms that have to partake in such a deal over the weekend or actually on friday, but that was a holiday, twitter put in a poison pill we got the ak on that this morning. nothing new that we didn't know. it kicks in at 15% what does to have the effect of doing? well, it levels the playing field, whatever that means that's the words they are using. really not much of any impact except if, in fkt fact, elon musk tries to move forward with what we consider a hostile tender you can take