disney story breaking including media analyst michael nathanson. he will join us.st talk oil prices now below $8$80. "squawk box" is coming right back ♪♪ for skin as alive as you are... don't settle for silver. harness the power of 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins to smooth, heal, and moisturize your dry skin. gold bond. champion your skin. ♪ >>> welcome back to "squawk box" this morning wti crude back below $80 a barrel joining us right now, energy aspects founder and director of research good morning to you. we've been watching this fall. i believe in large part because of what we're seeing out of china here do you have any other rational for it >> i think china has been a big driver and will continue to remain so big because i know there was a little bit of euphoria around the reopening. we've been warning that's a next year spring story. right now lockdowns continues and we have seen china pretty much disappear from the crude market in terms of their buying. that's clearly weighing on the complex. but there's also other factors we have the french refinery strikes th

our next guest covers them both, michael nathanson joins us this morning. thanks for the time.really leaps out when you say you're talking about the disney ebit guide for next year versus your own forecast, and you say rarely have we ever been so incorrect in our forecasting of disney profits. what happened? >> carl, it's a good question. we're neutral on disney. what happened was losses at streaming were higher this quarter, and losses would be higher year ahead. you know, as we talk about for a while now, it's a spending driven business. you have to spend more to get revenue growth, and the spending being done was higher than we thought. 22 is the top of their losses but 23 will be large as well then on cable networks and linear tv, cord cutting is now negative 6% a year, it's really collapsed. people are cutting the cable bundle, and that affects disney severely because of espn espn is a very expensive programming package and has high fixed costs. as they lose revenues there's a collapse of profitability. those two things came together worse than we expected. >> are you call

thanks >> good to see you michael nathanson. >>> elon musk calling out tim cook on twitter.>>> the recent protests in china having an impact on the tech sector, obviously. joining us our own deidre bosa to shed light on on what we've seen in chinese tech traded names and u.s. stock exposure. good morning >> good morning, carl. you and i during "techcheck" we have been watching to adrs that that continue to rally on one hand, unrest is going to make business difficult in the short term but it could ultimately pressure beijing to relaxits policy to lead to a more significant lasting reopening. some say these are the first steps. that could be why jd.com, other chinese tech names are top nasdaq 100 gainers this morning. the chinese basket of stocks gaining 30%. it's far outperforming other markets. you can see zumo has been a major underperformer since the end of 2020. there are other forces at work, communist government weighing on homegrown tech apple is reminding investors of the risk of having so much supply chain dependent on china and the impact, of course, that will have

that was a moment of arrogance >> you heard michael nathanson on "squawk box."ect-to-consumer lost -- is losing over a billion dollars -- what was it? over a billion dollars in the quarter. >> well, he can reset it or are you saying -- >> the pivot to direct consumer was bob iger's decision, like every other ceo of major media entertainment that had linear networks, watching that go away and saying, hey, look at that multiple netflix gets. we've got to move aggressively into that. >> it was a different era. >> it was. the new era is, we don't care about how many subscribers you have we want to see profitability >> this is the pivot that everybody has to do. >> do you think bob iger is going to have more success pivoting them to profitability >> yes, absolutely i think a lot of this may be related to having hollywood be better i mean, one of the great pieces -- i don't know if you had a chance to read jim stohr's piece. >> i did, on the failure of the at&t purchase of time warner >> you and i both respect jeff a great deal, and he had a phenomenal relationship wi

-- if mark zuckerberg can do what he's saying in terms of cutting costs, there's a piece by michael nathansonhat made a brief for meta that was extraordinary and i think he's a rigorous analyst >> well, sort of relate, to your point about people looking to get out of things, crm's the worst down name over the course of a year. >> i went over crm today with -- it's been a position since 2008. this marc benioff. and i don't think he can necessarily make the number, because the dollar, but if the dollar is weaker, that's the home run if the dollar really has peaked, as i just called my wife in paris, during the commercial break, of course, if the dollar has peaked, david, i'm over here, i'm not over there if the dollar has peaked, then you're going to want to buy salesforce, because the dollar crushed them microsoft, up 11 the dollar crushed them. >> has the dollar peaked i mean, i don't know i'm asking you >> speak to sara eisen later she follows it all better than anybody. >> she does. sara loves her currency. >> we have strengths we're certainly stronger than a lot of the news organizations t