latest on the h1n1 pandemic we're joined by our regular contributor when it comes to science, michael novacek, the provost of science at the american museum of natural history right here in new york. good to see you again, michael. >> good to be here. >> with winter just a few months away in the northern hemisphere, we have been hearing a lot of dire predictions about tens of millions of new cases of swine flu. first of all, how accurate is that? and well, how concerned should we be? >> the h1n1 influenza "a" virus as it's technically called is spreading very rapidly, could affect a large part of the population. on the other hand, we know that the mortality rates are not hugely severe. they're more comparable to that of seasonal flu, yet we have to take precautions and the vaccination is a very important part of that. >> we also heard from the w.h.o. today that it has not mutated, at least not so far. how legitimate is the concern of mutation? >> in this case, fortunately, the organism does not seem to have mutated significantly, in fact, at all. it's very much the same as it was last spring.