joining me, of course, michael osterholm the director for infective disease research.ector, you're here to be our reality check. let me ask you, do you share the optimism secretary azar shared with us this morning? >> i don't, only in the sense we're not really telling the complete story. we do have vaccines and therapeutics coming down the pike, but when you actually look at the time period for that. the next 6 to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic. vaccineless not become available in any meaningful way until early to third quarter of next year and even then half the u.s. population at this point is even skeptical of taking the vaccine. what we have right now is a major problem in messaging. people don't know what to believe. and that's one of our huge challenges going forward, we've got to get the message to the public that reflects the science and reflects reality. >> do you have any idea who's running the public -- the federal government public health response at this point? is it -- do you suspect that dr. atlas is now the leading scientis

infectious disease expert michael osterholm while students can contribute to spread, the risk at schools depends in part on students' ages. >> we look at kids under age 10. we've seen limited transmission. i think when we can continue to move forward with the younger children feeling some relative sense of safety about that. >> reporter: and then there are stories like 49-year-old julie davis, a third grade teacher in north carolina. she died on october 4th, just ten days after developing her first symptoms. her daughter, leanna richardson. >>> do you have any sense of where she may have gotten this? i know she is a teacher. are you concerned that maybe she got it at school? >> due to the uncertainty surrounding covid-19, it is nearly impossible to navigate specifics. i just want my mom to forever be remembered as the hero she was. and if anything else, let her death be a reminder that covid-19 doesn't care. covid-19 is serious. this is a pandemic. this is not a joke. >> reporter: officials at the district where davis taught say they do not believe she got the virus at school. they say t

joining me, of course, michael osterholm the director for infective disease research.tor, you're here to be our reality check. let me ask you, do you share the optimism secretary azar shared with us this morning? >> i don't, only in the sense we're not really telling the complete story. we do have vaccines and therapeutics coming down the pike, but when you actually look at the time period for that. the next 6 to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic. vaccineless not become available in any meaningful way until early to third quarter of next year and even then half the u.s. population at this point is even skeptical of taking the vaccine. what we have right now is a major problem in messaging. people don't know what to believe. and that's one of our huge challenges going forward, we've got to get the message to the public that reflects the science and reflects reality. >> do you have any idea who's running the public -- the federal government public health response at this point? is it -- do you suspect that dr. atlas is now the leading scientist

so back with us tonight, michael osterholm, professor and the director for the center of infectious disease research and policy, university of minnesota. he's also the co-author of the book "deadliest enemy: our war against killer germs." michael, what are people to do surrounded by deniers in media? whether it's a hypereducated senator from louisiana who knows better or the president, the kind of denier in chief whose first official act today was to remove his mask? he is sick with covid-19. >> well, you're absolutely right. there's a tremendous amount of pushback out there among what i would call no longer just pandemic fatigue but pandemic anger. people who believe that this is all a hoax, it's not real. meanwhile, as you just laid out, we're actually going to hit the darkest days of this pandemic to date over the next several months. the case numbers are going up right now. we're getting into that fall season with indoor air being a much more prominent way to transmit the virus. and i would suggest that we are going to see this disease go from the number 3 cause of death in this country

how can i disagree with michael osterholm? it's absolutely spot on.ut if you look at the numbers we're in dire shape. and say what will it be on election day? and if you look at the numbers you assume that we're going to stay in a steady state, no improvement, the same daily toll of new cases and new deaths, we'll be looking at more than 225,000 cases by -- i mean, deaths, excuse me, by election day. we'll be up to nearly 9 million cumulative cases in america. and here's the hard part, the part that makes it really frightening is that it's so dispersed across the country. you know, 41 out of 50 states are on an upwards trajectory. brian, and of the other, you know, remaining states, none look like this is rosy picture right now. in some states we've already completely overwhelmed their intensive care unit capacity. and one of the things that's very striking now is we have far more covid in rural areas, in places where hospitals have already closed, gone bankrupt, been shut down, where people have to drive enormous distances to get decent medical care.

michael osterholm joining us tonight. thank you for being with us. dr. osterholm: thank you. amna: we heard earlier from some frontline health care workers, but let's turn now to a different kind of essential worker. a few of the more than 50 million caregivers in this country who provide help to loved ones or clients. we spoke with some volunteer, in home, and family caregivers to hear what their past few months have been like. >> my name is matt. my son ben is a 16-year-old with autism. when the pandemic started, he went from being fairly structured and programmed, to all of a sudden having no structure. it was pretty anxiety provoking, especially for ben, who over time, got more and more anxious. >> my name is cecily baker. i'm the owner of a business called be patient careving. caregiving during the pandemic is all about trusting your family's word. we listen to the media, people dying left and right in nursing assistants facilities and mental homes, that can affect mental health. >>>> my name is maria ortiz and i'm a volunteer member for the greater cincinnati chapter fo

. >>> so we're going to get back to michael osterholm on covid right after the break. >>> also this hour the nation's top national security officials say that russia and iran are interfering in the 2020 election. we will speak to someone who has been briefed on the intelligence. ♪ oh, oh, oh, ozempic®! ♪ (announcer) once-weekly ozempic® is helping many people with type 2 diabetes like emily lower their blood sugar. a majority of adults who took ozempic® reached an a1c under 7 and maintained it. here's your a1c. oh! my a1c is under 7! (announcer) and you may lose weight. adults who took ozempic® lost on average up to 12 pounds. i lost almost 12 pounds! oh! (announcer) for those also with known heart disease, ozempic® lowers the risk of major cardiovascular events such as heart attack, stroke, or death. it lowers the risk. oh! and i only have to take it once a week. oh! ♪ oh, oh, oh, ozempic®! ♪ (announcer) ozempic® is not for people with type 1 diabetes or diabetic ketoacidosis. do not share needles or pens. don't reuse needles. do not take ozempic® if you have a personal or family histor

: but america's health care system is being pushed to the brink, according to epidemiologist michael osterholme're going to end up experiencing the trifecta of shortages, doctors and nurses, protective equipment, and third we'll see major drug shortages, stretching the system beyond anything we've had in modern history. >> reporter: california saw a big spike in cases this week, but those higher infection numbers are because of a backlog in cases, all from l.a. county. over the next few days, officials will be monitoring new test results to get an accurate covid case count. jamie. >> yuccas: dania, thank you. there will be much more on the election and covid crisis tomorrow on "face the nation." margaret brennan's guests including national security adviser, robert o'brien. arkansas governor asa hutchinson. and kansas city mayor quinton lucas. a police officer who fatally shot a black teenager in waukegan, illinois, has been fired. 19-year-old marcellis stinnette was killed, and his girlfriend wounded after the officer stopped the car she was driving earlier this week. according to police, the

michael osterholm. i want to just start. you just heard that report from north dakota.f there is just the fact that it's -- it takes 48 hours to get the results of testing. it's a population resistant to contact tracing. no mask mandates. this is six months after the pandemic, six months after every warning from people like you who said this is -- we're going to have to do certain measures. when you hear a story like that, do you just throw up your hands and say, we're losing? >> you know, failure is not an option here so we have to keep trying. what we're talking about are human lives. we're not just talking about how many tests are positive or who gets tested. we're talking about human lives. we have to keep going. the challenge is that there are a number of states out there that are just like north dakota. and it's just a matter of time over the course of the next two to four weeks before we see similar kinds of on the ground settings as you're seeing in north dakota. that's what has us so worried about going into the next three to four months. >> we just put up a gr

michael osterholm joining us tonight. thank you so much for being with us. >> doctor: thank you. >> nawaz: we heard earlier from some front line health care workers, but let's turn now to a different kind of essential worker-- a few of the more than 50 million caregivers in this country. providing help to loved ones or clients. we spoke with some volunteer, in-home, and family caregivers to hear what their past few months have been like >> my name's matt. my son ben is a 16 year old with autism. when the pandemic started, ben went from being fairly structured and programmed to all of a sudden having no structure. it was pretty anxiety provoking, especially for ben, who over time got more and more anxious. >> my name is cecily baker. i am the owner of a business called be patient caregivers. to be a caregiver in this pandemic is all about trust. the families are worried. the covid-19 hit and we're people dying left or right in nursing homes assisted living and in-home that can affect your mental health. >> my name is maria

michael osterholm terms pandemic anger along with an increasing sensation dr. michael osterholm terms pandemic anger >> a group of potentially as high as a third of our population who believe that this pandemic's a hoax, that it's some kind of a perpetrated event for political reasons. >> reporter: and as many more get sick there's a real risk of overwhelming hospitals >> for a severely ill covid patient it can take five or six overwhelming hospitals >> for a severely ill covid patient it can take five or six providers up to an hour to provide that critical care >> reporter: precious resources already in short supply. >> our health care system across the country is stretched so thin thin and i worry that the next wave of covid-19 is going to pu and i worry that the next wave of covid-19 is going to push many hospitals over the brink. >> reporter: and these doctors and epidemiologists telling me the trajectory we're on now, 50,000 cases a day and rising, they're worried it's going to get even worse than the peak that we saw over the summer. >> meg, thanks grim c

epicenter for now, due in part to covid fatigue and covid deniers, says minnesota epidemiologist michael osterholm. >> this is up to a third of the population that believes this pandemic is a hoax, and they believe that it will end next wednesday. and no public health messaging is having an impact on that population. >> reporter: in wisconsin, the c.d.c. found that a sleepaway camp was a super-spreader event this summer with one positive case leading to 116 infections. and south dakota is battling a positivity rate of an astonishing 46%, meaning nearly half of the tests are coming back positive. 57-year-old doug raysby was one of the people behind those numbers. he died from covid last week. nurse kathy james is his mother- in-law. >> there was a week of the 10 days of his stay that doctors said i want him to be in i.c.u. because he needs an extended level of care. >> reporter: right. >> and we don't have any beds. >> reporter: you didn't have any beds? >> they did not have any beds. >> reporter: how do you feel about that? >> i'm-- i'm livid. the final conversations that we had with him, he just

infectious disease expert michael osterholm while students can contribute to spread, the risk at schoolspart on students' ages. >> we look at kids under age 10. we've seen limited transmission. i think when we can continue to move forward with the younger children feeling some relative sense of safety about that. >> reporter: and then there are stories like 49-year-old julie davis, a third grade teacher in north carolina. she died on october 4th, just ten days after developing her first symptoms. her daughter, leanna richardson. >>> do you have any sense of where she may have gotten this? i know she is a teacher. are you concerned that maybe she got it at school? >> due to the uncertainty surrounding covid-19, it is nearly impossible to navigate specifics. i just want my mom to forever be remembered as the hero she

michael osterholm is here. today. >> good to see you. >> thank you, 80,005 cases alone today, a record setting number, what does it say to you? >> well, first of all, we have to put it in perspective. think at labor day we were at 32,000 a day and we are going to continue to shoot straight up. the numbers are going to grow much, much larger. it's a confluence of a number of factors. i said, we were just entering the dark estimate dest days of pandemic. >> any idea that the winter surge is upon us? >> it's a combination of things, first of all, it's pandemic fatigue. people are tired of dealing with the virus. even though the virus is not tired of dealing with them. when you are looking at people going to bars and restaurants and weddings and funerals and going to church and family gatherings, all the things are really facilitating transmission. you have a third of the population, that are pandemic anger. they are actually believing the pandemic does not exist and that in fact, once the election is held, it will

brilliant, do you agree with michael osterholm, who directs the center for disease research who said we're headed to the next six to 12 weeks and could be could be the darkest of the entire pandemic. >> i certainly agree with him on this case. this is a frightening moment in time when we have a political process, the election, and the president who is not contributing to stopping the pandemic, is denying its existence, is creating a culture where the things that will help us, which are masks and social distancing and being careful, it's just the opposite of what we should be doing. i think mike is right. >> okay. on the good side, if there is good news here. >> the president will often note this, there's some evidence in the statistics that the death rate among those infected have declined as doctors like yourself have learned better to treat this. one, is that true and what should we take from that? what is the good news that we should take from that? >> two different death rates. the death rate per capita, comparing us to other countries has not decreased. the death race per case,

michael osterholm says overnight in minnesota, the next 6 to 12 weeks could be the darkest of this pandemic. why do you think he has those concerns based on what you're seeing, dr. westergaard? >> well, i agree. i believe that the trajectory that we're on right now is a very dangerous one, because here in wisconsin and minnesota, whether its -- weather is getting better, people are spending more time indoor, watching football, the virus will transmit readily. the fact we haven't started turning a corner into mid and late october is concerning. i this i there's room more optimism. when we've seen places who made a concerted effort to turn the corner, we think about new york city in the spring, it doesn't take that long. a concerted effort affecting the whole population of staying home and taking these mitigation strategies seriously can make a difference. unfortunately we're not seeing trends in individuals behaviors and not seeing trends in our case count that we're doing that yet, but there is still time, i believe, but i think everyone who is concerned that this is likely to get worse bef

as michael osterholm said one thing is you're sharing air and when you're sharing air in an indoor locationt's hard to be outside because of the weather, you're more likely to possibly transmit the virus. so we are not doing it. i think, you know, the best guidance would be this year to probably, you know, not do this and wait until next year when we are in better position. >> so, so sad. dr. fauci is also saying that the u.s. doesn't necessarily need to lock down again even though these new trends are so concerning. if we are not heading for a lockdown, what should we be doing to get through these next few weeks and months? >> wolf, this has been one of the most befuddling things. there are simple public health measures. same people who say, you know, we absolutely cannot lock down, many of them are people who we also will not follow the basically public health measures. let me give you an example of scottsdale, arizona. people say show how me this works. we show scottsdale. we know when they came out of stay-at-home orders. 151% increase after stay-at-home orders were lifted and talking b

joining me now is michael osterholm, the director for the center for infectious disease and policy atinnesota. welcome, professor. let me begin by asking you, if i may, about what happened with donald trump. and i ask this because about three months ago you essentially predicted this would happen. i am wondering what was it about the regimen that the white house had set up? they said everyone who is getting to see the president was being tested. everyone in the white house was being tested repeatedly. why did you think that wouldn't work? >> first of all, they were not using the right test for the right purpose. meaning that they were using a test that was actually quite insensitive. about up to half of the individuals who might be actually infected with the virus would actually turn up with a negative test result. so we said back in july, you know, trying to protect the president with a test that had that kind of performance characteristics was a lot like giving squirt guns to the secret service and hoping that they could protect the president against an assassin. it was a matter of

michael osterholme director at the university of minnesota.at to have you here, doctor. >> good morning. >> good morning. president trump just dropped a disinformation bomb on twitter and i want to go through it because i think almost every word is wrong, but you are the expert and you will tell us how we should feel about the flu versus coronavirus. he says, flu season is coming up. okay. many people every year, sometimes over 100,000 -- he doesn't say what happens -- and despite the vaccine die from the flu. are we going to close down the country? no, we have learned to live like it just like we have learned to life with covid, in most populations far less lethal. in 2017-2018 winter season, 61,000 people died from the flu, 2018-2019 season, 34,000 people died from the flu. so far this year 22,000 people have died from the flu. so it's not more deadly than coronavirus, coronavirus is. >> it's not. and even those numbers are statistical models, they are not actually number of patients reported like we're seeing with covid-19. this is just a d

with us now to talk about the implications is michael osterholm director for the centers for infectioush and policy at the university of minnesota. good morning. >> good morning. >> let's begin with how costly that pivot was. >> well, at the time people didn't realize that was setting the stage from going from a really bad situation to a horrible situation. you know, we know, we're now going to be pushing cases well north of 100,000 cases a day very soon. when that pivot was made we were talking about 25,000 or 30,000 cases a day. you can see now what's happened because in part that pivot. >> so we heard dr. fauci in that interview yesterday also talk about a national mask mandate. i think for the first time we really heard him say very clearly, michael, this is untenable and in his words, quote, if that works, let's do it, but then he conceded that a national mask mandate is not going to happen because the white house doesn't want it. you wrote this op-ed with neil cash khari back in august and essentially said a mask mandate isn't enough. you said some have climbed the widespread use

michael osterholm, the director of the center for infectious disease research.asesor the rise in 38 states. secretary azar said yesterday people just need to hang in for a few more weeks while the president says we're turning a corner. help us understand, where do you think we are right now? >> as i noted in the "meet the press" when i appeared with secretary azar yesterday, we're not anywhere close to turning the corner on this particular situation. right now, if you look at what happened since labor day, when we were at a low of 32,000 cases a day, actually on friday, we had 70,000 cases reported in this country and the smaller numbers over the weekend will be turned around this week and we'll see those numbers go much higher. it's a combination of events. pandemic fatigue, for what it's been labeled, has surely set in. a lot of people said i'm done with this virus, even though the virus is far from being done with us. so we're seeing people in many different social settings at homes, parties. we're seeing weddings, funerals, birthday parties, community meetin

michael osterholm is here -- osterholm is here.r the center for disease research and policy. dr. osterholm, good to see you. >> good to see you. >> thank you. 80,005 cases, today. a record-setting number. what does that say to you? >> first of all, we have to put it in perspective. just think, at labor day, we are at 32,000 cases in this country, a day. now, at 80,000. and we are going to continue to shoot straight up. these numbers are going to grow much, much larger. it's the confluence of a number of factors and, you know, as i ever said over the past several weeks, we are just entering the darkest days of this pandemic. >> oh, boy. is there any doubt that the fall and winter surge that experts warned about, that it is here, upon us? >> well, actually, it's a combination, don. as we discussed. first, it's fatigue. people are just tired of dealing with the virus, even though the virus is not tired of dealing with them. and so, when you look at people going to bars and restaurants, going to weddings and funerals, going to church,

michael osterholm, an epidemiologist from the university of minnesota.e've talked to him a lot and he was on "meet the press" yesterday. he said he thinks in his view the next six months or so are going to mark the darkest days for this country in terms of its battle with the coronavirus. certainly caught my attention because i think back to the earliest days, i think back to march and april and all the numbers and reports coming particularly out of new york city and imagine something being even darker than that. is it an assessment that you share? >> good afternoon, steve. it's a fear i share and unfortunately it might be a reality coming true faster than we would want it to. just a blink of an eye we wept from end of august with cases in 20,000, 30,000 to now almost 70,000 before the end of last weekend and hospitalizations are up and parts determined by the biology of the virus, as it gets colder it's easier to transmit this disease, we're all moving indoors but there are aspects very much in our hands and that's why i don't say with certainty as dr.

michael osterholm said the next six to 12 weeks will be the darkest in the pandemic.t do you see as the impact going forward on the health care community? >> yes, so first of all, dr. osterholm is one of the best in the world. and of course all of us hope that his assessment is a little too negative. but i'm worried that he may be right. the problem on the health care community is in march and april, when nurses and doctors were doing this extraordinary work, and really through the whole pandemic, the public has been behind them. recently we have so politicized this that increasingly you're seeing a loss of that trust for doctors and nurses, people who are arguing that this is all overblown, that it's a hoax. and i think that is also tearing away at the sort of steadiness of the doctors and nurses who are doing incredible work. so we really need to back them on an ongoing basis, whatever our own personal political beliefs. >> and speaking of the politics of all this, you have the president really going after dr. fauci now, saying don't believe the scientists, that the

michael osterholm and others who think the next six weeks are going to be a lot worse and perhaps worseanything we've experienced yet? >> i think that is a definite possibility. it's a very dangerous time ahead. we see the numbers of cases rising steadily, steeply as they did back in march and they did again in june and july. i think we're on a rapidly rising trajectory of cases. the number of deaths have stayed about stable over the last month. so that's one difference between march and now or july and now. but usually when cases go up around the world we see some lag, and then mortality begins to climb. so i am worried that cases will keep going up, mortality will begin to climb. and even if it doesn't, 700 deaths a day makes covid the second leading cause of death in the country. and i'm really worried we've accommodated to that, people are getting used to that terrible reality, so we've got to do work to drive it down both through individual actions, our behaviors and by the words of leaders and the actions of leaders and in many places that's not happening. >> i was just going to s

michael osterholm and anthony scaramucci. thank you both, gentlemen, for being patient while i was doing what i do. doctor, the reality of the hospitalizations as a lagging indicator, it is a very frightening metric, because there is no subjectivity to it. if you are in the hospital, you've got a problem. unless you are the president who was there getting experimental treatments. what do you know about the numbers and what do they tell you about what's happening with the pandemic right now? >> well, in, you're right, the hospitalizations are going up and they're going up in many states, not just a few states, like we saw this summer. but you can actually also glean a great deal of information from the testing results. people can say we're testing more, that's why we're finding more. but when you look at the rate of positivity, meaning how frequently is someone found to be infected, there, if you're just testing more, the rate of positivity will go down. meaning if i sample twice as much for the same number of infections, it w

at a time when michael osterholm, one of the nation's top infectious disease experts says the next six to twelve weeks could be the darkest of the entire pandemic. dr. scott atlas, that's who he's turning to. the controversial doctor with a history of peddling misinformation on the virus. a doctor slammed by dozens of his colleagues at stanford as promoting falsehoods and misrepresentations of science. just this weekend dr. atlas tweeted masks work? no. well, twitter took that tweet down. today he tried to say he didn't say what he said with this tweet. "potus and i have always stressed all appropriate mitigation measures to save lives including social distancing, extra hygiene and mask wearing when one cannot social distance." this is of course blatantly untrue when it comes to trump. we see him day after day physically -- he was never doing the mask and the social distancing. but he got coronavirus. you saw him not socially distanced with no mask in the rose garden. dr. atlas supports that. because here he is defending the president for holding rallies where there is no social distan

indoor socializing is growing as the weather turns cold, says epidemiologist michael osterholm. >> we'reeeing so many people who are congregating indoors where we know the virus concentrates in those settings and transmission has even increased. >> reporter: as cases continue to surge across the midwest, michigan's governor tightened restrictions on indoor gatherings thursday. and officials in wisconsin warned they're reportedly on the track to run short of icu beds in 2 to 6 weeks. in south dakota, the positivity rate is an astonishing 46%, meaning nearly half of all tests are coming back positive. >> people are acting like there's nothing going on, and it's absolutely maddening. >> reporter: kathy jane's son-in-law contracted the virus. he was an essential worker in the agriculture industry in sioux falls, south dakota. he was immunocompromised but couldn't afford to stay home. his wife katrina was only able to visit in person on his last day. >> i kind of got to say good-bye, but he wasn't conscious and didn't really know we were there. >> the final conversations that we had with him,

michael osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the university of minnesota.e says the updated guidance on how coronavirus spreads is finally starting to reflect the science. >> what essentially are they acknowledging now? >> the cdc is finally acknowledging that these very tiny particles can float long distances and hang in the air for hours are actually part of the transmission of this virus from one infected individual to someone who is not yet infected. that has tremendous implications. >> reporter: the guidance on the cdc's website specifically states that the virus may be able to infect people who are further than six feet away. especially with an enclosed space that had inadequate ventilation and if someone is breathing heavily while singing or exercising. there is a report from "the new york times" that says scientists at the fda are being blocked by the white house from implementing strict new federal guidelines for the emergency release of the vaccine. those enhanced safety guidelines would almost guarantee no vaccine would be approved before the nov

michael osterholm, who we turn to, along with you, for advice and guidance on the pandemic said yesterdayr. >> we do have vaccines and therapeutics coming down the pike, but when you actually look at the time period for that, the next 6 to 12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic. vaccines will not become available in any meaningful way until early to third quarter of next year. >> and dr. schaffner, another expert like yourself, who we get to turn to, told cnbc that he expects the u.s. to experience a substantial third wave of infections. my question for you is, joe biden has a totally different approach. he has -- obviously he models good behavior, but that's really the tip of the iceberg. he says -- he writes this today to floridians. i've had a plan to confront this pandemic since march. it starts with listening to the scientists and getting the virus under control. we'll make testing free, quick and available, we'll make treatment free, too, as soon as we can have a safe and effective vaccine, we'll ensure everyone can get it without having to pay a dime. i guess m