looking at activity from past previous elections, joining us is michael pervis. good morning to you. >> good morning. >> this takes on added significance after the dramatic play out in the markets on friday. do you is to start processing in the risk that the election doesn't go as the polls suggest the last few weeks to a hillary win? >> i think either the memory of the brexit, you have to keep that on your radar screen right now. i think it's highly probable in my own personal judgment that hillary is going to win. obviously, it's unclear what is going to happen in the senate or the house, particularly after the latest e-mail controversy. but you just don't know. the gauge of this before brexit, it was 13 or 14 just ten days before brexit. and then it started climbing up suddenly. so i almost wonder in this move just eight days before the election whether we'll see a similar climb higher here. >> what kind of percentage swings could we expect? it is not as binary. >> it is not as binary but it is complicated. if trump does win, if that's what you mean by a surpr