eastern, michael pillsbury says you know what? the president is ready to ramp up the trade war, and we could make those 25% tariffs 50 to 100 percent, and we are hitting session lows right now for the dow. >> yeah, you will see that. i mean the bonds are closed. so where you can go to is sell the s&p or sell the dow or buy puts to the dow. that's what the market is going to do. we are one tweet away from -- not a 200 point move, but, you know, 500, 600 points. hopefully it is going to be higher, but if we have seen anything in the last six months, volatility is not going to go away, and if you're a dow investor, you can't really bat an eye at 200, 300 point move. you have to worry about those 500, thousand point moves and, you know, we were there in august. we've had a great recovery since august. you know, where are we going next? you know, if we knew that, we wouldn't come to work every day. all i can tell you is, if you're worried, if you're worried, you can protect yourself. that's why this building is here. you know, you get

we take that up with michael pillsbury. stay with us. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ of all the moments you share with your best friend, the greatest could be the moment you save her life. every second counts in cardiac arrest. learn hands-only cpr and be the difference for someone you love. lou: president trump suggested a new list of investigation for the house judiciary committee. president trump suggesting they might want to look into obama's million dollar book and nets fliks deals and the slush fund used to pay off sexual misconduct claims and trying to win access to secret grand jury material from the special councilled a -- the special counsel investigation. '. justice attorneys wrote quote, most of prominently the speaker of the house has been emphatic the the investigation not a true impeachment proceeding. it's good to see a little fire returned against the resistance. >> congress certainly the democratic parties out of control in terms of pretending they are impeaching to justify a unprecedented attempts to gain access to

michael pillsbury. the director of the hudson institute.your way to hong kong and beijing. in a perilous time in these trade talks. your thoughts about where we are head. we know there is a deputy level discussion that's going to take place at the end of next week, thursday and friday. should we expect anything material? >> there has been some goodwill gestures on both sides the past week or so. there is still a mystery of why the chinese backed out of the enforcement mechanisms in may. so i will be interested in learning. i'm going as a scholar. and what they think is the reason china backed out. the other issue is the link between hong kong and the trade talks. the president has been quite clear in tweeted and to the press that he doesn't think trade talks can go forward if there is a use of violence in hong kong. lou: i don't think the president has received enough credit from the general news made yeah in this country, left-wing media, if you prefer. for once again, bringing back together human rights and u.s. foreign policy trade polic

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saying it's good but all i'm saying that there is a lot of thought behind it by people like michael pillsbury of the how it's an institute steve bannon etc is there anything in their world view of china as well and they cannot make war on the industrial economies of the west that rings true to you as well. not as an economic war i mean that your skills and make any sense i mean china is competing in the international marketplace like any other country is competing in the national market because the program which is the correct problem to focus on is that china because of its economic structure has had certain advantages in terms of the development of its own market. that all the countries more advanced countries including you know what the states including europe have not been able to to obtain but this is not uncommon in terms of the historical development so countries that are rising often cut off their own markets to foreign competition the worst similar that i can think of in historical sense in this case is you know the states which for a very long time was the most difficult country in

is it at all surprising that people like steve bannon and michael pillsbury would ultimately see china's strategy as aggressive and aiming to take something away from the united states then i think they take. losses for who lived more than 2000 years ago a little bit too seriously aren't chanos are to to to go outside world is dominated by politics current politics and not the ancient philosophy i spent most of the 1st part of this year in beijing met a lot of policy makers i don't think they are a day have much too advanced in terms of their understanding of chinese history or what will trump house of american history which is to say very very little so i don't think that's the issue here i think very often you find an overrating or for china is able to do on the western side and especially on the u.s. side on that front and sort of people now look our who shouldn't over look the issue on the chinese to do something or competition that there is an attempt very concerted attempt to steal secrets from foreign companies to obtain them for free that there is a link between an increasingly o

edward, it's important to take note to something that doctor michael pillsbury said. so-called sources that are being quoted too often and certainly the business press and the national left-wing media. it seems to me, i want to get your assessment, and some cases our reporters have more chinese sources then they have u.s. sources. >> the chinese has been very vocal about this. and we are getting a lot of information out of china related to the trade deal, things they would like to see and ideas, specifically cannot speak to the interim trade deal where that came from, that was not from our reporting, we were reporting what the president said and his advisors, i tell you the chinese are talking about what they would like to see in the deal, with their economy slowing as it is, china is sort of on the back foot and the strength of our economy will be at the table for good deal. >> the president believes his principal advisors and by that, i mean treasure secretary mnuchin, u.s. trade representative robert lighthizer. and when i'm talking about interim deals and to track

michael pillsbury tells the south china morning post that existing tariffs could go to, get this, 50o sides can't come to an agreement. lauren: the trump administration exempted hundreds of chinese goods from tariffs. was it a concession to china? politico says it's aimed at helping u.s. companies that say they're being hurt by tariffs. we get the latest from edward lawrence in washington. >> reporter: good morning. the trade talks between the u.s. and china, the deputy level, continues later on today here. these talks will set up the main event which is going to be the heads of the two trade teams, china and the u.s. meeting face-to-face in washington in early october. commerce secretary wilbur ross says that he believes the chinese delegation has though us something in order to move forward with these trade deals. >> if they aren't prepared to give on anything, we're not going to get anywhere. remember, what we need is to correct the big imbalances, not just the current trade deficit, but also the structural imbalances, the impediments to market access, disrespect for intellectual

trade representative's office, president donald trump advisor on china, michael pillsbury on the leften, a friend of this show, said tariffs on chinese goods quote could go to 50 percent or 100 percent even if a u.s. china trade deal is not agreed upon soon. in an interview in hong kong, pillsbury telling the south china morning post the president is prepared to

michael pillsbury, always good news for us when you can join u us.ireworks on capitol hill today over guns and whether democrats will backed confiscation. this woman, former cop says she's not going to comply if they do. more on that next. ♪ (speaking japanese) where am i? (woman speaking french) are you crazy/nuts? cyclist: pip! pip! (woman speaking french) i'm here, look at me. it's completely your fault. (man speaking french) ok? it's me. it's my fault? no, i can't believe how easy it was to save hundreds of dollars on my car insurance with geico. (pterodactyl screech) believe it. geico could save you 15% or more on car insurance. (beep) the ups and downs of frequent mood swings can plummet you to extreme lows. (crying) lift you to intense highs. (muffled arguing) or, make you feel both at once. overwhelmed by bipolar i symptoms? ask about vraylar. some medications only treat the lows or the highs. vraylar effectively treats depression, acute manic and mixed episodes of bipolar i. full-spectrum relief of all symptoms. with just one pill, once a da

michael pillsbury, director of the center for chinese strategy at the hudson institute. mike, let me start with hong kong. your thoughts about the withdrawal by carrie lam of the extradition bill that would have required citizens of hong kong to be taken to the mainland at the discretion of the chinese government. your thoughts about what will ensue as a result of this immense step forward, it seems to me. >> i agree with you, lou, it's an immense step forward. i think there are two implications. one is in hong kong itself. the demonstrations will, no doubt, continue. this is sort of 13 weeks' delay. but it's the main demand. this is why the two million people came out, to make sure they couldn't just be snatched and brought to the mainland for an unfair trial. but probably the more important implication for the united states is xi jinping is, no doubt, behind this and has approved it. so this means president trump's strategy is working. we may expect now, i think, some progress in the trade talks. usually there's a sort of debate in china among the senior leadership in

saying it's good but all i'm saying that there is a lot of thought behind it by people like michael pillsbury of the it's an institute steve bannan at cetera is there anything in their world view of china as well and they cannot make war on the industrial economies of the west that rings true to you as well. not as an economic war i mean that you're still saying make any sense i mean china is competing in the international marketplace like any other country is competing in the national market because the program which is the correct problem to focus on is that china because of its economic structure has had certain advantages in terms of the development of its own market. that all the countries more advanced countries including you know what the states including europe have not been able to to obtain but this is not uncommon in terms of the historical development so countries that are rising often cut off their own markets to foreign competition the worst sin of it i can think of in historical sense in this case is do not the states which for a very long time was the most difficult country in

as michael pillsbury warns that the president is ready to ramp up tariffs to 50%, one 100% if a deals not reached soon. we got brand-new poll, 45% say tariffs on imports the economy. >> trade talks started again today in d.c. between chinese and the u.s. these talks are aimed to set up the main event which will happen early october for the heads of the trade teams will meet face-to-face here. he believes the chinese needs to show us something this week to get to a deal. >> they are prepared to give anything without this. what we need is to correct the big imbalances, not just the current trade deficit but also the structural imbalances, impediments to market access, disrespect for intellectual property. it's more complicated than just buying a few more soybeans. >> chinese are calling these preliminary talks. trade sources say the atmosphere changed when trump decided to delay tariff increases 15 days until october 15. no sources say the chinese want to talk this week about how both sides can come to a deal that is win-win. they've bought more soybeans so we asked the agriculture sec

michael pillsbury today. he pointed out something i didn't realize.hat is the overwhelming difficult members of capital in the gdp of china. as i recall, we are talking about maybe 4% of their economy in exports. we are talking about half the economy when we tart talking about stopping the flows of capital or their access to u.s. markets. it will be quite a different stage in the trade war if that comes to pass. >> this is more than just a trade war. this is an economic war and china is trying to use our own money against us. chambers of commerce. and it was important for the president to call this out on the stage in front of the u.n. general assembly saying china's economic model is not only predatory, but criminal. >> it hooks like it will be a -- it looks like it will be a difficult and long battle. because battle it is. great to have you with us, gordon. up next an atheist group forcing schools to stop prayer before and after football games. sometimes you need prayer before and after a football game. we'll take that. stay with us. beyond the rout

liz: let's bring in hudson institute's michael pillsbury. china is exempting tariffs on 16u.s. products. is he going to get this done? >> things are looking up for the president. this is a significant success. this one-year waiver on these key products. but it's not the only concession the chinese have been making. the president is wise to not draw attention to these concessions. i don't think he would mind if i mentioned a few. the ceo of huawei told the "new york times" he's willing to negotiate with the department of justice. china had an experiment in shanghai called the free trade zone. behaving with an open market the way president trump wants all of china to do. china 0a announced they will open more green trade zones. they also stopped insulting president trump. they used to talk about kind of insulting proverbs from the foreign ministry podium saying people who are sick should not give medical advice. and they meant president trump it's quite clear. so that eased off. i'm quite optimistic. liz: you are the country's china expert. the president listens to you. you confe

paul: what are we to make of these remarks from the sometimes advisor of the white house, michael pillsbury? he said president trump could still raise tariffs by 50% to 100% if there's no progress. sarah: i think that that again is some posturing. from has gone to places no one thought he would and the trade war. 50% to 100% would be pretty dramatic, and what we know now is that u.s. importers pay those costs, so is having a direct impact for u.s. businesses and consumers that are starting to feel the ripple through effects of those costs being passed on. to think tariffs could go from 25%, 30% to as much as 50% 100% implausible ats this time. shery: thank you so much, our senior trade editor. says report from the oecd global growth slipping to its weakest in a decade as the escalating trade war pushes momentum toward those last seen in the financial crisis. our global economics and policy editor kathleen hays has the numbers. of course, a lot happening in the markets and the economy, and now the oecd, just one of the many that have now downgraded their forecasts. kathleen: absolutely. this

joining me, experpt of the 100 year marathon, michael pillsbury.s what the secretary of defense said today so important? >> well, it's historic, it's very important as you say. it's the choice of words. to explicitly warn other countries china is going compromise your sovereignty, not become dependent on china, elegantly the way mark esper said the more you become dependent the easier it is to coerce you in the future. this has never happened before. secretaries of defense have been cautious talking about the klein a threat. in fact for decades you mention 20 years, you've been struggling on this policy, for two decades they never even would say china is a threat. they would say concern or challenge or competitor. this is really something. >> laura: he went on and said i would caution my friends in europe, this is not a problem in some distant land that does not affect you. it aly, most recently, took -- italy took a huge investment, $16 billion, that's a lot of money for italy, from the chinese. we're not just talking building bridges and airports

joining us tonight, doctor michael pillsbury director of center strategy at the hudson institute. mike, let me start with hong kong, your thoughts about the withdrawal by carrie lam of the extradition bill that would've required citizens of hong kong to be taken to the mainland at the discretion of the chinese government. your thoughts about what will ensue as a result of this immense step forward it seems to me? >> it's an immense step forward, i think there's two of locations, one in hong kong itself, the demonstrations will no doubt continue in this is a 13 week delay, but if the main demand, this is why the 2 million people came out to make sure they cannot just be snatched and brought to the mainland for an unfair trial. but a far more important implication for the united states, xi jinping is no doubt behind this and approved it. this means president trump strategy is working, we may expect some progress in the trade talks. when they come out with a series of steps over time, it would not surprise me too see chinese delegation come here this week after all. don't forget just

. >> michael pillsbury, always enjoy you coming to see us, thanks for coming in.ireworks on capitol hill over guns and whether democrats will back confiscation. this woman says she will not comply if they do, next. it's my after-work decompression zone. so when my windshield broke... >> woman: what?! >> vo: ...i searched for someone who really knew my car. i found the experts at safelite autoglass. >> woman: hi! >> vo: with their exclusive technology, they fixed my windshield... then recalibrated the camera attached to my glass so my safety systems still work. who knew that was a thing?! >> woman: safelite has service i can trust. >> singers: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace. ♪ it's just the way things are. when you're under pressure to get the job done, it seems you have to accept the fact that some equipment will sit idle, or underutilized. but it doesn't have to be that way. that's why united rentals is combining equipment, data, safety and expertise to help your worksite perform better. united rentals. a better worksite is here. dealing with psoriatic arthr

and as these talks are going on, a bear, a hawk on china michael pillsbury of the hudson institute who's been advising president trump from outside the white house on trade tells the south china morning post if there's not a deal soon that president trump could escalate things and tariffs as high as 100% we know president trump is the tariff man, he has a steel stomach for things like that we spoke to another outside ally of the white house on trade who said that pillsbury is freelancing but that the president likes that because it gives him more negotiating room and it's sort of a good cop bad cop dynamic that allows him to ramp up the pressure on china even as his negotiators are in the room trying to do that work. but even so, we are seeing some positive signs emerging that china is here in the u.s. to check off some of the boxes that the president has laid out we have learned through our sources that chinese officials are planning to go to farm country, specifically in montana and nebraska, to meet with farmers face to face and secretary of agriculture sonny perdue this afternoon sai

michael pillsbury, an outside adviser to the white house on all things china trade, thinks we shouldpresident is going now. he said yesterday and this is reported in the chinese media that tariffs on china could go to 50% or 100%. when i read that, i double checked to make sure he actually said that. what would that mean for the u.s. economy in. >> well, actually, at 25% or so, the tariffs for most products are what we call lockout. so people are going to buy it from some other country. and so once you get to a lockout level you can go to 1,000% and it won't have an extra effect because you've already made them buy it from vietnam or some other place. when there's a trade war going on, sometimes you see people start to lift tariffs to really high levels in part because they've already chased all the business away. so if you chase it away a little more with some kind of signal that you are really pissed off, it doesn't have an economic effect. especially the stuff at the beginning like the first $50 billion or so that you can probably go high without having much of an effect. >> thank

perhaps some frustration on behalf of china from those comments by president trump's adviser, michael pillsbury yesterday on potential escalation in the trade war if there isn't a deal soon. so, we're trying to figure out what exactly's behind this cancellation, but no doubt, it was supposed to build goodwill and now it is not happening. >> kayla tausche, thank you very much for that. i want to point out right now what's happening because there's been a market movement in certain parts of the overall market, specifically with the ten-year treasury note yield we're at 1.76% that's a pretty precipitous move in yields to the down side, indicating this flight to safety, people buying up the safety of u.s. government bonds. so, there has been a market impact on those headlines. we'll continue to monitor that throughout the course of this hour and beyond. >>> well, it has been a rough week for retail overall, its worst week in a month, in fact the usual suspects are there -- macy's, gap, tiffany, kohl's and nordstrom. they're all entering the most pressure on the sector this week the whole sector get

stuart: michael pillsbury, thank you so much indeed. you later about the national security advisor. thank you, michael. >>> more on this, back to the government crackdown on vaping. the journal reporting that juul, big vaping company of course, may push back against the government's proposed ban on flavored e-cigs. grady trimble has been following this one for us. you tell us what is juul's argument? reporter: well, juul originally said it would support this ban on non-tobacco flared e-cigarettes. that would include the fruity ones like mango but ones like mint and menthol. there are reports there is internal debate behind the scenes at juul maybe pushing back, trying to keep the mint and menthol flavors on the market and the reason for that, those are the ones similar to cigarette flavors, menthol cigarettes. the argument is, the foal, if we want to switch smokers from tobacco products to our vaping products we need to offer them these types of flavors, mint and menthol. there is some business motivation behind this too, stuart. juul s

president mike pence, mark short and kelly blue book executive analyst, rebecca lindlen and michael pillsburye a big two hours coming up. our top story this hour, nearly 50,000 general he motors auto workers are on strike this morning, the uaw calling the first jobs action in years. kristina partsinevolos is in arlington, texas with the latest. good morning to you. >> reporter: you have about 4,000 employees that work at this plant. they work on full-size vehicles, cadillac, he's ca escapade, the suburban. they're demanding more from gm, the union, the they're asking for fair wages, a share of profit. gm made $8 billion last year in profits. healthcare, this is a contentious issue. they expect at this point, gm, they want their employees to start paying more in healthcare. according to gm, their employees pay 4% of the cost. according to the kaiser institution, on average large corporations in america pay about 25 to 30% of the cost. gm is taking a larger share and they want toes pass those costs onto the workers over here. we have about 49,000 employees that could po ten sly go -- potentiall

asia watcher michael pillsbury with us now. does this whole thing just get worse from here, in your opinion? >> well, china has a chance to resolve it. that's why everything hangs on whetomise to send its delegatio in september. the date is not agreed to even if they will come, it's not agreed to, but this is the big moment, two or three weeks from now, in the month of september, will the chinese take us back to where we were may 1st. 90% of the agreement done, very detailed, 150 pages, then they removed the part that makes it legally binding. if they go back to that, then we have a deal in september. stuart: so is september the crunch time? >> roughly two or three weeks from now, yes. as i say, the date is not set and the chinese have been saying if the delegation is sent here at all. so that's where the uncertainty is right now. will they agree to come. stuart: let's bring in hong kong into this. because the chinese authorities, beijing says the end is coming. and that it has the power to declare an emergency to stop the prot

china watcher michael pillsbury up next on that very question. isn't just the theme park capital of the world, it also has the highest growth in manufacturing jobs in the us. it's a competition for the talent. employees need more than just a paycheck. you definitely want to take advantage of all the benefits you can get. 2/3 of employees said that the workplace is an important source for personal savings and protection solutions. the workplace should be a source of financial security. keeping your people happy is what keeps your people. that's financial wellness. put your employees on a path to financial wellness with prudential. [upbeat♪action music] (pilot) we're going to be on the tarmac for another 45 minutes or so. when i lost my sight, my biggest fear was losing my independence. mmm... good. so i've spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. we are so good. we built a guide that uses ibm watson... to help the blind. it is already working in cities like tokyo. my dream is to help millions more people like me. mom you'

china watcher michael pillsbury okay i want you to hand cap this for me.the end of the talks, do you think there's any livelihood of a modest deal just a modest interim deal and agreement to keep talking about the big issues later? smg well you're kind of referring to what we call in washington, d.c. the stuart varney plan. >> no you don't. not refer to it as that that's flattering. proposed a plan one time i saw it it has been discussed. i'm sorry to say i think the president tweets without mentioning your name he rejected the idea of a short-term deal in favor of who knew waiting even l until after the election. and he's kind of teasing the about chinese he said you know it is a long shot to belt on someone else defeating me you're going to lose you'll suffer all of this pain. in next 16 months and he wants a significant deal because so much effort has been put into this for the first time that it better have legally binding almost court-like procedures. where you feel yourening has been stolen by me. you know, just complain there's an action approach pu

michael pillsbury today. upsaid the tariffs could go by 50%, 100%.h sides want as much leverage as possible right now. it might be posturing to say that there is a whole world of pain out there that the trump administration could still level on china. i think what we do have to believe right now is the two sides are trying to talk. i think neither one wants an escalation. u.s. companies are talking about how much pain this has caused them. they are obviously having to pay these important tariffs as goods come in. i think at this moment in time, we are led to believe at least they are trying to make progress and they are not necessarily talking about an escalation. shery: what do we know about the scope of the deal? because we have heard everything from a limited trade deal to a very comprehensive one. sarah: absolutely. we reported a few days ago that the trump administration might -- trump confirmed this, in might be possible they agree to some sort of interim deal. they didn't give us officially details about that but perhaps it could include thing

we know what took the wind out of the market's sails, donald trump's key adviser on china, michael pillsburyhe president is ready to escalate the trade war if a deal is not agreed to soon. apparently that would include upping the tariff ante, if you will. gerri willis, two words, not good, right? gerri: not good at all. we have lost about 60 points. we went briefly negative during the break here. we are back in positive territory. i can tell you what traders are talking to me about is a headline in the china global times that the chinese are not as anxious for a deal as the white house thought they were. so when that came out, and it came out on one of the wire services specifically for traders, those stocks started going down and everybody started talking about this headline. this is something that always moves the market. let me get you to microsoft, hitting an all-time high today after the company announced it plans to buy back as much as $40 billion in stock and raise its dividend 11%, maintaining its record of sharing its cash forward with shareholders. shares popping, making microsoft

joining us now is the director for chinese strategy, michael pillsbury.ng me this morning. your reaction to this news that she is formally with drawing this bill. >> it's very good news. she wouldn't do it without permission from xi-jinping in beijing. the other demands, the demonstrators have made, they want a police investigation for brutality, they want some of their comrades released from jail, and the big demand is universal elections that china promised in 1980 and promised early in 1984 as well. sshe hasn't made enough concessions but this is a real breakthrough and bodes well for the trade talks. if xi-jinping approves this kind of concession for hong kong, maybe he'll approve the delegation coming here in p december and getting back to where the b president was in apl with 90% of the deal done. maria: so far we have no details on any meeting between xi-jinping and president trump in september. >> well, if you read the president's tweets closely, from yesterday, he's saying they're probably going to try to wait him out 16 months and hope for a dem

i talked with an adviser on the trade team, michael pillsbury, an adviser to the president, who saidan a full deal, a strong deal with the chinese. he pointed to a tweet the president made a couple weeks ago where the president said basicall that he could make an easy deal with china but wasn't going to do it because it wouldn't be the right deal for the united states. he went on to say there is already an agreement on the table from last may, before the chinese deleted some of the things out of it that the chinese could agree to if they want to. but again, pushing back, there's going to be no interim deal with this, just going forward, that the president is going to make a good deal for the united states and a firm deal that is long term with china. stuart: got it. i think i've got that. that report spiked the market, then when you and others said there's no interim deal, we brought it back down again. okay. good stuff, edward. thank you very much indeed. reporter: just want to get it right. stuart: you did get it right. we appreciate that. thanks, mr. lawrence. >>> teslahallenging

i want to ask edward for a second, michael pillsbury, chief advisor to the president on these mattersump may escalate the trade war if there is no deal soon. what do you think about that? >> he said 50%. the tariffs could go 50 or 100% related to that this is kind of a message to the chinese. basically we're doing concessions here, rolling back exemptions basically on 437 items. now it is your turn or things could get worse. kind of a message to the chinese there seems going out. we expect chinese sources there could be agricultural buy, the announcement that the u.s. has been looking for maybe either this week or next week, the u.s. or partsinevelos of the chinese trade delegation is going to take a trip to the midwest states to tour farms as a goodwill gesture. all this fits together for a clearer picture, david. david: let me go back to the professor on this because pillsbury's statements are interesting saying he will ratchet the whole thing up but as we get closer to the election we know how the market will react, it will go down. that will not necessarily be a good thing for his