joining us is michael purvis.nteresting stuff on volatility positioning lately, how are things position right now based on recent patterns and what would that say about volatility? we see this trend of vix positioning going extremely short to now quite aggressively long. positioning,t vix the short or long side, it could be a helpful signal to go the other way. everybody will go from one side of the shift to the other side of the shift. positioning,to vix the signals before the financial crisis when there wasn't q a and interest rates were not a dominant part of the picture -- the positioning signals were much weaker. my argument is that if we are normalizing on the macroeconomic side, these positioning signals will normalize and become less effective. the idea is ife, you go in the post great financial signals than volatility is going to come down. but in a different monetary policy regime and they are no longer doing expensive easy policy, than it might be myopic to look at most crisis signals? it will beactly,

joining us, michael purvis we thought we were the only ones that got up this early thank you for joining>> glad to be here >> volatility spike, bond yield spike, stocks fell, knowledge seemed relaxed what happened? >> yeah, it's funny price reaction can do that feels like 2017 again. look, i think a couple of things when we saw the vix explosion late january and early february, it got people wondering about things the bond yielding higher and higher the regime changes when you're talking about a multi-decade run in bonds, that regime change doesn't end up overnight because the vix popped up over 40 and so forth. >> are bonds are king, or is it a benevolent lord? >> i think you always feel respect for the king 2%, 3%, you always have -- fo to figure out where equities are going, you have to figure out where the ten-year is going. >> full stop, having said that, i think this whole call for the ten-year yield to ra race up to 3.5% is a very aggressive call and you're seeing this with inflation. the market isn't going to keep rolling out of bed to the down side every day >> there is a idea t

michael purvis chief global strategist joining us early on a monday wow, last week, you know the hyperboleek in two years. facebook was a disaster. now, we're up 300 points on the futures. is this a trade war fear easing turnaround or something else >> you know, you could almost zoom out a little bit and think every time we had a vix four-day over the four years, we had a rally, a nice release rally. he consolidated and back down to a relief rally that's sort of textbook. we could describe all sorts of narrative to explain price action but i think it's important to realize that sometimes, the markets are going to do what they can do. we can fix it on tariffs or facebook i've been bearish in the market from two weeks ago to this level. i'll probe be taking profits on that foot spread i recommended >> are you still bearish, or is this the pause that refreshes? >> well, look, this is part of a natural price action, how oversent we got in january what i'd like to see is a retest of these levels. we're having a nice relief rally in futures right now you kind of want to see them go back and rete

we have michael purvis of weeden and company -- michael curves -- michael purves of weeden and companyis hard to aggregate exactly what is going on. i think what has been happening a sortnd this is where of micro-issue for facebook becomes a macro of market risk, it is simply the way the market structure has been evolving over the last several years. tech has been a great performer, but it is not just that it has been a fantastic performer, the market has implicitly de-risked the faang sector. they are all fantastic business models with very high growth flows that have reasons to buy those every single dip. if the regulatory news flow increases and we are looking at something that is going to be disruptive to those business models going forward, from the government, what is going to happen is that it is not only where do you find the leadership from, but the fact that stocks like facebook or amazon, amazon has a beta of 1.05. it trades at almost 200 times forward earnings. there is something. what is happening year -- here is the asset class has been der isked. goingole market is eithe

joining us is michael purvis. what do you do today? and put the news flow out of the discussion for one second. every vix spikes above 40 by queen had a couple of weeks ago, the price action on equities in the aftermath was you have a strong relief rally and a second leg down to the first dip level. pointsg another 100 would be right in keeping with historic precedent. the news flow we have seen here overnight and more generally, it's raising new questions for the markets that we have not had to contend with. alix: do you want to wait? michael: you want to wait. i am tactically bearish right now. about halfway through the second leg back down. when you start seeing that happen and maybe some sort of bottoming, you can go by the depth. -- dip. it has not escalated into unpleasantecidedly from what we've seen with the trump narrative. david: how much of this is because the fact of the trade action? we don't know where it's going as opposed to policy direction and fear of trade wars? michael: it's more about the unknown. we don't know if