michael spence of new york university will join us.id westin with the vice president of the united states at roughly 12 noon. who isup, a gentleman expert on the fiscal policy of this nation, jason furman of harvard university. we look forward to that conversation as well. please stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ this is bloomberg "surveillance," tom and francine from london and new york. touch,uities rising a european futures were rising but are flat. they have gone back up some 0.4%. it is a rough start to the fourth quarter for risk assets as we look at the number of deaths in europe. two hours until the weekly jobless claims report in america, a grim number, one of the topics were our david westin in conversation with the vice -- topics for our david westin in conversation with the vice president of the united states. ♪ because you can't get to the theater, we're bringing the theater home to you with xfinity movie premiere. such news. i know what this is. this is a real thing. our brand new service that lets you watch movies at

taylor: general atlantic senior advisor michael spence says a v-shaped recovery is unlikely. mberg from the lawn. michael: we are lying low, staying at home and only going out for essential things like going to the supermarket. are careful, you can probably stay safe. that is what we end most of our friends are doing. taylor: is there a sense of how and when things can go back to normal, and what normal looks like? mike: until recently we haven't had much sense of that because we didn't know how effective and when the lockdown would produce the desired effect. as you mentioned, we are seeing preliminary evidence that the lockdown is working to slow the spread of the virus, but we have a ways to go. we are one case in the medical system, especially as northern italy is overwhelmed. so we have a ways to go before we get the rate of new critical cases down to a point that we can even consider a transition to a different regime. what i was talking about in the article -- go ahead. ahead, michael. say at: i was going to some point, the cost of keeping schools closed for a long time

tom: coming up, michael spends --the society and the times michael spence on the society and the times morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance." thank you for joining us worldwide under these unusual circumstances, off of central park in new york and francine in west london, the somber nests of this newomberness of york city is extraordinary. a data check from yesterday was ugly. go tonot something you all the time, but within the 50 or 60 or 70 data points, you turn to the dynamics of the euro and the yen. in a row,two days yesterday big, today less so, stronger yen against the euro. francine: i am looking at the headline from spain saying debts -- deaths have risen past 10,000 over 24 new fatalities hours. european stocks are gaining a touch. oil surging after china unveiled plans to boost its reserves because oil has plunged 60% this year. tom: a lot more coming up, a lot of good conversations including one now with jeffrey sachs of columbia university, looking forward to that. this is bloomberg. ♪ there's no place like home. especially when xfinity has you covered with fast, rel

thank you very much, michael spence, general atlantic senior advisor and nobel laureate. stay safe.ith me on the phone is anna han of wells fargo securities. we were talking about the type of recovery we will see. when you are modeling your forecast of what to buy at the moment for a long-term time horizon, what does that economy look like? speaking, wecally see significant slowdown in the gdp in the second and third quarter. that is pretty general consensus across the sell side. by fourth quarter, we expect the u.s. economy to be on the mend, but the things we are going to be watching closely are really jobs, unemployment, and corporate earnings to see how we might change or adjust. but rather than a u or a v, this could be a very slow return and recovery, and we agree that this will take a couple of quarters. we expect the reopening of businesses will probably more in -- will probably be more in tranches. good point. a i feel like we will probably get a look at that in earnings. how do you feel about earnings when companies have no feel as to what their margins will be like, what