that is with voting member michelle bowman saying she thinks they need more hikes. how does that shape your view short term and long term >> we had a pullback we have come through that. that is typical with the fed rate hike cycles these are good for stocks. 13% or 15% returns 20% max rally. i don't know we're in the pause yet o yet. i think we could see one more hike in september or november. that is the direction. it is hard to get big pullbacks with the fed on pause. >> let's get back to the wall of worry. morgan stanley telling investors pull your money out in days lackluster triggers a retreat. what impact do you see a pullout of the american investors in china? >> china is difficult. not only do you have the -- you can't stimulate china unless you stimulate the property market. they hcannot stimulate the property market because it is a dead market. in terms of the united states, you are seeing manufacturing construction gdp in the u.s. the highest in 30 years. that is a sign of re-onshoring that is a theme for the u.s. >> a lot to watch. steve, thank you very

>> we are michelle bowman saying the fed may need to raise rates further. >> i think that will put enough restraint on the economy that it will continue to slow. my outlook is we will still be in a restrictive territory in 2024. >> that was the latest fed speak her. we'll get more from both of them later today. let's turn to geopolitics. a hike on a russian naval vessel and oil tanker signaling a rapidly expanding war. one market intelligence firm seeing frame rates ballooning. the cost of shipping food may rise by as much as 50%. this is a crucial moment. we just had another harvest and it is a crucial avenue. talk us through these moves. it is very crucial avenue. nearly 20% of its oil exports, that is 2.5 million barrels of crude per day going through this transport avenue. the issue was with the backdrop. we have oil already at your highs. they could cause some inflationary pressure. we are not seeing crude bounce very high. brent is down nearly two -- .2%. >> they extended the unilateral supply. that could actually be prolonged further and even deeper. we are staying in the middle ea

shery: federal reserve governor michelle bowman there.omments sparked moves across treasuries, gold and copper among others. annabelle, what are the implications than for equities? annabelle: it could be a signal to us that the optimism is a bit overdone. we just had a new call from j.p. morgan. essentially he is reiterating his view that investors should stay underweight on u.s. equities, given that the expectations in the market for a soft landing, he says those are a bit overdone. he is actually citing the bank's views on the global economy, which he says will dip into recession by the end of next year. investors essentially should stay defensive with their economic outlook. of course, this analyst was another biggest optimists on wall street. he reversed his calls last year. when you look at the u.s. economy, actually, jp morgan reversed its call and essentially they are now saying that the u.s. economy will expand this year. they also see modest subpar growth year -- modest to subpar growth. essentially for the third quarter, seeing

michelle bowman pushing more on the hiking narrative.ay a bit of a quietness in the earnings front. we are looking at tyson foods, which is coming any minute. as well as pal and tier technologies -- palantir technologies. tom: is that a meme stock? lisa: i don't know that is the case because they did come out with artificial intelligence per gust occasions. you can call anything a meme stock. we are looking at credit for the month of june. this will be interesting because of the shift away from term loans, student loans, people not taking those out. credit card debt, let's go. that seems to be what everybody is doing because they are spending more than they are earning and that is what we are seeing consistently. jonathan: i love it when you have a ramped. -- when you have a rant. cameron dawson joins us now. the data is coming better than expected. i'm trying to work out whether things are getting better. are things improving or better-than-expected? cameron: yes it is better-than-expected. there are signs that certain parts of the econ

and michelle bowman, he said more rate hikes are probably going to be needed. what she is waiting to see to prove or disprove that is inflation, whether or not it gets down towards 2%. does consumer spending slow and does she see the job market loosening? she has been one of the hawks, so it's not surprising she is looking at that report and seeing strength rather than saying it is time to maybe reassess that. john lithgow was on with us a couple hours ago, former deputy director at the imf, longtime fed watcher, one time chief economist at citibank. he thinks the market is flowing and wages are not the problem here. he thinks the fed have to pause in september. i just want to throw that in too to give us one more view. david: kathleen hays there for us in new york just getting us up to speed on where the narrative is. it should not be a surprise that following the last fed meeting they are getting a lot more talk in terms of guidance and may be pulling the markets back from this victory narrative. as we were pointing out, inflation coming through on thursday w

alix: governor michelle bowman speaking today.nd then we also wind up having earnings. the trade supposed to be a little bit of equities prayed still selling the bond market. do earnings prove u.s. exceptionalism. that's the starting point with the former chief strategist at bridgewater. short term to u.s. exceptionalism? >> tight labor markets, in crumbs -- incomes are growing faster. best supporting earnings and dominating even though the fed is continuing to lower liquidity. they are not done yet. so for now i think the consumer is creating that u.s. exceptionalism and not eliminating the fed. when does the consumer pull and how much. guy: standing over here in london we watched your conversations over there regarding a soft landing in envy. it doesn't feel like we will have a soft landing here. how critical is that soft landing relative to whether or not you stay in the united states or shift a look at europe. europe is cheap from an equity point of view. you may not have the soft landing in europe feel cyclical. rebecca: i th

michelle bowman of the board of governors says they will probably have to hike rates more and we canssume their other hawks that agree with her. why are they wrong and what do we have to see next for the pause to take place instead of another rate hike in september? john: remember, in 2021 the fed was telling you they were going to keep rates low for a long time. the facts intervened and they reacted. they reacted late but they reacted. there is a good reason to think the of gone from too loose to two tight. we will have to watch how the data unfolds. the fed says it is data dependent but it cannot describe exactly which data it is dependent on and how the dependence translates into policy. let's presume if the data continued to show a slowing of demand growth, especially a slowing in the cyclical and sensitive -- cyclical and in the sensitive sectors is what is happening and if the wage pressures continued to moderate as it appears they are, then it becomes much harder to build a case that says more is needed. we will see. there is an elemental difference in view about how you shoul

we had others like the fed governor michelle bowman saying we do need to do more hikes.ous for the different descriptors they use. many or most officials thought this or that. we will be king in first and foremost today on the line that may be fleshes out the numbers a little bit more and gives us the size of the relative size of these two camps on the committee. alix: if that is the case, matt, good to see you, by the way, what do you think the data we have gotten since the last fed mating -- meeting may have changed the dynamic we will hear about today? matt: that is kind of the other big thing in the background, right? a lot of the data we have gotten since the july fed meeting have been broadly positive on inflation. we got lower inflation numbers. on the wage growth side that we know the fed is really keen on we saw the celebration in things like the employment cost index, the unit labor cost index. another thing we will be looking at in the minutes is trying to see what they think about the liver market and then -- labor market and then trying to read across to how

the latest to weigh in is fed governor michelle bowman who spoke to the kansas banking association and increases will be needed to get inflation back down to 2%. and, jose, she also said that the fed should be open to continuing to raise rates if the economics say inflation remains a threat. >> so this is the continuing spiral of rate hikes, right? >> it will be so long as we see prices of goods and services continue to climb. by the way, labor factor into that. employment is a big part of that. we do know that the cost of fuel is going higher. that's something that the fed has to watch very vigilantly. jose. >>> time for really good news, it's about one of the people who makes this show possible, some six months after being diagnosed with cancer, our producer kelly betts is out of the hospital. [ cheers and applause ] >> get out of here. >>-kettering cancer center yesterday. kelly was diagnosed with acute myeloid leukemia in february. and kelly is currently being treated at an out-patient facility. she's such a just a wonderful spirited soul. and i also want to give a special shoutout

he wants to prep even for rate cuts but fed governor michelle bowman, she is still looking for more evidence dimartino booth. we on team bowman, lori bowman, lisa cook, christopher waller, man named jay powell. who will win this battle? charles: jay win the battle if f 22024. three dissented. he is prepared to dissent because he wants to maintain the higher for longer stance. charles: he is the most hawkish one in your opinion? >> in my view, he can't really come out just saying that but i really do think this is his mission. charles: we have some people, i remember when they first started hiking, fed started hiking rates here, they went crazy like this, my question when will they stop? the answer i got from a lot of folks when fed fund rates are higher than core inflation, we're there now. is that a signal then to at least pause? >> we're technically restrictive, running restrictive policy. so there is a signal to pause but by the same token the minutes, the minutes stated that a lot of companies, despite higher interest rates are having no problem servicing their debts that is the fed's co

one day after two fed officials that seemed to indicate maybe it was time to pause but michelle bowman said she thinks there is going to be and need for rate hikes. she is expecting raises. >> expect additional increases will like to be needed. i will be looking for evidence that inflation is on a consistent downward path as i consider whether the fund rate will be needed. >> she says inflation is still above the target and the labor market continues to be tight. john williams said it's an open question if further rate hikes are needed. he says supply and demand imbalances must shrink, think about the labor market. a shortage of workers, he is talking about wages. he expects the fed to keep a restrictive stance for some time though he does say rate cuts could be warranted. he said all this on friday. the headline was 3.3% year-over-year in june. base effects expect the headline cpi, the core cpi supposed to go from 4.8 which is way too high. still have to debate, the report is flighted and for now, i think they are trying to make up his mind. haidi: as are we all. coming up, the ai fre

speaking of inflation, fed governor michelle bowman says the fed may need to raise interest rates to bring it down. the monetary policy is not on a preset course and future decisions are driven by data the new york fed president john williams says it is an p open question if more hikes are needed he said he thinks we are close to a peak rate and it looks like the market agree was that. >> it seems like it. the rate drama last week with the jumpy bond market was not re-pricing the fed it was pricing out recession and maybe more inflation stickiness and global yields. >> we're at a pause at this point. the chart last time showed odds going higher at 30% for september or november. >>> meantime, berkshire hathaway out with second quarter results saturday it was up 6.6% from the quarter the year earlier it was driven by the underwriting and investment income and stake in apple which with led the market rally in the second quarter with 18% gain the cash at berkshire hathaway swelled to $150 billion up from $130 billion in the prior quarter. berkshire hathaway shares closed at a record high

trouble have we really figured that out in an era where the fed and some key members, including michelle bowman rate increases still needed and those that aren't are talking about higher for a longer period? >> sara, i absolutely agree with higher for longer period of time i think there's a very, very high bar for the fed to actually reverse course i don't see that coming any time soon but i think we're there or thereabouts in terms of rates, and i think, you know, the banks have had many of the regional banks have had six -- almost six months, five months, since the svb collapse to address some of those issues that's why i say it's unsurprising in the sense that it has followed the trend. i think it is an opportunity there is an opportunity in the market for many of the stronger regional banks to continue to build their capital buffers, particularly around regulatory capital, but i don't see this as like a new trend, but more continuation of what we've seen since march. >> we'll keep our eye on it. worst day for the kre since early may. bob, thanks. good to see you. >> good to see you, carl. >

>> good morning, david fed governor michelle bowman speaking this morning expects additional increasestion and says monetary policy is not a preset course. she is going to monitor data here's her test for saying if we have enough. evidence of inflation is, quote, on a consistent and meaningful downward path. she added that the labor market remains tight with demand for workers outstripping supply. her comments were also made, by the way, by new york fed president john williams released this morning and echoing concerns that friday jobs report may have been more hawkish than the market first thought among the concerns inside that report, job growth has been consistently greater than population growth and that's reflected, by the way, in the still strong wage gains out there. the unemployment rate kicked down and even slowing payroll growth seen by some as a result of there not being enough bodies to higher rather than an unwillingness to hire. chris ruppki writing this could be the first time in economic history payroll employment drops which normally indicates a recession, but the reas

michelle bowman doesn't think we are done with phase one.he federal reserve governor, one official looking for more hikes. from new york city, good morning. the equity market and price action, stocks down by 0.4% on the s&p. the downgrades of u.s. banks in the mix, which we will discuss and some mrs.. ups cutting the outlook for revenue, down by 5.6 percent. recovering a touch. this going to earnings from the walt disney company after the bell wednesday, disney creating a task force for ai and counting costs. i think that is more interesting. where's bob iger and the team going? what is going on at the company? tom: if you see the phrase task force, duck or run. tax -- it is task force tuesday. there will be a task force here and there. they're just big committees. i am cynical about it. all of the triumph of disney, mary poppins a million years ago, do think the sound of music was put together by a task force? jonathan: i did not know that was disney. tom: the hills are alive. task force is one of my least favorite phrases. lisa: some inter

and austan goolsbee and michelle bowman will be speaking throughout the day as they give their divergentandle this. i'm not expecting to hear much from any of them, because all of them don't have much to gain by saying anything too aggressive. the market is moving in their direction. they want to see yields moving higher. the fact that you are seeing the markets hang in there, isn't that a good thing? jonathan: i hope tom barkin knows where he is meant to be. lisa: [laughter] if he shows up here i won't get upset. jonathan: you know dix calls their customers athletes? and you start discussing fishing and stuff like that. his fishing is poor? lisa: do you think golf is a sport? jonathan: i do. lisa: so wise and fishing a sport? you wade through it and have to cast. it is like this versus this. jonathan: that is a deep question. jill carey hall with us. good to see you. you have upgraded your view on consumer discretionary. could you walk us through why? jill: sure. the consumer has been holding up well. real wage growth turned positive for the first time in two years, even though we have